Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

23 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im leaning a lot outside sterling now because it could collapse at any point...

So say the charts (NB. Could).  Not many, if any, have noticed.  You just don't see such a pattern on a forex chart very often, if at all, especially a first world country.

[Plan-b]

29 minutes ago, Harley said:

So say the charts (NB. Could).  Not many, if any, have noticed.  You just don't see such a pattern on a forex chart very often, if at all, especially a first world country.

Dr Tim Morgan has mentioned a possible sterling collapse several times recently. I have liked his site and his band of regular commentators for many years, his credentials and online behaviour are impeccable.

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com

[Harley]

7 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Dr Tim Morgan has mentioned a possible sterling collapse several times recently. I have liked his site and his band of regular commentators for many years, his credentials and online behaviour are impeccable.

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com

Ta.  I must read.  I've just checked me charts.  I'm very worried.  Maybe next week, maybe next month.  But worried.  So many red flags looking at it from several angles.

[JMD]

8 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Thanks, Just sat and watch that with a coffee the royalties companies are very interesting 

also this part about the miners 

Yes imo Horizon Kinetic come up with novel but at same time conservative investment ideas. Their big thing is finding businesses that can, over the long term, compound the returns on their assets.

They view the royalty sector in general as rentiers - low cost, few staff, secure/rising income stream, low risk business model, perfect inflation busting companies. 'Rentiers' eh?... Hope that doesn't mean im evil for wanting to invest in them!

[wherebee]

6 hours ago, Castlevania said:

After Fukushima Germany fast tracked the closure of their nuclear power plants and replaced most with new coal fired power plants.

It was Merkel not wanting to lose ground to the greens, so she issued the 'close nukes down' promise to keep her party high in the polls.

 

oh, and to keep her russian handlers happy, obviously.

 

read this and see how anyone criticising the possible elimination of reliable power was just being silly... https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-13595171

[Plan-b]

7 minutes ago, Harley said:

Ta.  I must read.  I've just checked me charts.  I'm very worried.  Maybe next week, maybe next month.  But worried.  So many red flags looking at it from several angles.

Click on the speech bubble to access the posts complete with comments - easily missed.

His excel spreadsheet containing his SEEDS energy economic model calculations for various countries is (used to be) available for download on his site.

He has mentioned that the site is coming to the end of the road, I really hope not.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

On emerging markets generally, I've just been looking around and noticed an iShares EM ETF with an average 10 day vol of 200k had a 2m vol Friday.  I didn't look closer but I should do so.

Look at the director buys in the fund manager Ninety One plc.The vehicle Forty Two Point Two is a trust type fund with the directors,they are buying millions and consistent.I joined them last week.They know EMs and of course must fancy their AUM shooting up once things settle and people wake up to the massive wealth transfer.The west is left with no energy and millions and millions of bennie claiming immigrants,the Emerging world looks like the advanced world going forward.

[JMD]

7 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I wonder when this particular penny drop moment is going to hit the mainstream.

I think the GTK report Is the one i posted here few months back. I never thought the Finnish, who do this climate critique regularly, would be the first ones to call out that the silly old Climate Emporer had no clothes. In fact what I like is that they go for the jugular, they don't waste time arguing the economics - they instead state unequivocally that the IPCC climate control aims are just unworkable due to the laws of physics... Ie There simply isn't enough battery metals and other stuff on planet earth to do the energy transition In the first place!!      

[DurhamBorn]

27 minutes ago, Harley said:

Ta.  I must read.  I've just checked me charts.  I'm very worried.  Maybe next week, maybe next month.  But worried.  So many red flags looking at it from several angles.

Tell me this,how can sterling look like one of the likely best performing currencies mid cycle on my roadmap,yet also now look like a coin toss to collapse?.We are in serious trouble,massive dislocation could hit at any time.Obvious systemic collapse is already underway,the only question is if it can be stopped and reversed before it spreads from all government departments into the broad economy.If they dont cut entitlements we are going down,or they are taking all savings,then we are going down.

 

[Virgil Caine]

47 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Dr Tim Morgan has mentioned a possible sterling collapse several times recently. I have liked his site and his band of regular commentators for many years, his credentials and online behaviour are impeccable.

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com

Morgan has run the standout site on this subject for years. The wilful refusal of politicians and policy makers to understand the role of energy in underpinning industrial civilisation just makes me wince. It was painful to read Starmer’s latest proposals for tackling the “cost of living crisis” which makes not a single mention of any policy to address long term energy supply issues. I am pretty resigned to lame responses from politicians but his latest set of economic illiteracy  was pathetic even by modern UK standards.

[Sidd]

Got a Mitsibushi dual invertor split installed 2 years ago in the living room and our bedroom. Invertor part is hidden on the roof of the rear extension. Best investment ever, loving this summer with the AC cooling and the heater heats rooms extremely quickly.

 

Thinking to get 2 more installed in the kids room in winter (once installation demand is low) and get the app based wifi module installed also so i can set it via a mobile app).

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Castlevania said:

After Fukushima Germany fast tracked the closure of their nuclear power plants and replaced most with new coal fired power plants.

Yes but of course Fukushima was over 10 years ago. And even if Germany had attempted to intially justify coal as being just a temporary solution, they were at least in last few years actually increasing its usage in electricity generation. Plus never mind actually questioning the original premise by the Germans of replacing a known but very small risk (of nuclear accident), with a much larger and so called existential risk of world devastation, or at least contributing to the said risk by using coal. 

Rhetorical questions of course and not aimed at you Castlemania. But the above sequence of events just makes no sense at all, and for me really serves to underline how morally bankrupt the whole climate debate is... And this is all before the really difficult economic and practical decisions making begins to bite.

[Sidd]

So just came back on an evening out with one of our relatives in his 2020 Black Lamborghini Urus. The guys brother was also in the car who just put in an order for a new Urus for delivery next year. 

 

So i listened to the eldest of the brothers talk about how Savills predicts 15% property growth in the next 5 years and that once Russians can re invest London prime property will go sky high again. I then told him that inflation adjusted that 15% is likely a decline in real terms. He looked puzzled. All that money with no basic understanding. The last cycle really did favour the brain dead.

[JMD]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

Trouble is, is it not, royalty companies are often LPs (limited partnerships) in the US with tax implications for us Brits, are there not? 

Some US royalties are but not all. However i only use ISAs/sipps and as I recall am prevented from buying LP's (and MLP midstream oil sector companies, which are a different thing but mention them here for completeness) within those wrappers.

So you may be correct about the extra tax implications if buying in say a ordinary share account but as I don't do that I am unsure.

I beleive what I have written above is correct? Dont want to mislead anyone here so please correct me if at all wrong.

[Plan-b]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Tell me this,how can sterling look like one of the likely best performing currencies mid cycle on my roadmap,yet also now look like a coin toss to collapse?.We are in serious trouble,massive dislocation could hit at any time.Obvious systemic collapse is already underway,the only question is if it can be stopped and reversed before it spreads from all government departments into the broad economy.If they dont cut entitlements we are going down,or they are taking all savings,then we are going down.

 

I have no idea how or why sterling looks like one of the likely best performing currencies mid cycle. 

But I'm gonna give some of it a go .. For now I feel current collapse is being averted due to the kindness of strangers.

Wherever I have travelled and met everyday Americans they are extremely interested in meeting the Brits, they are friendly and genuinely inquisitive;  perhaps the mighty American financial system (the special relationship?) is sparring us and sterling for now.

I don't know if its happening but if it is - it can't last forever. 

Anyway please forgive the rambling post as .... 

 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

First person I've ever heard describe capitalism as centralised.

Its kinda what it's become is it not ('Adam Smith' it ain't) and is very much the implied back-topic on here I thought - or am I wrong?

But Ok for clarity I should have written: socialism (trends toward communism), capitalism (trends toward corporatism). But In my defence I was attempting to quickly squeeze into single paragraph what an economy is.

[wherebee]

PSLV may be starting to run.  It's been a complete dog, completely against what one would expect in the currency printing environment.  I'd been laddering in on the way down, now holding 5% of my portfolio in it.  Hopefully it shoots up once the real rush to precious metals starts.

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

PSLV may be starting to run.  It's been a complete dog, completely against what one would expect in the currency printing environment.  I'd been laddering in on the way down, now holding 5% of my portfolio in it.  Hopefully it shoots up once the real rush to precious metals starts.

 

Yep, many have been on a run since 25 Jul22 in both USD and GBP (and AUD!).  Some weeklies with mild but steady upticks while others more erratic.  Let's see if the run has legs given it's capacity to disappoint!

PS:  Is yours really a 15m chart?  I thought hard to do that for a one month timeframe in TV.  But interestingly shows the same start of trend my weeklies do.

PPS:  I deleted a post this week about another silver ETF with some massive candle formations as it was not representative of the other ETFs like PSLV.  Not usual so I wonder what's going on there.

PPPS:  For context, several industrial metals seem to be on a run atm.

[CannonFodder]

Venezuela halts oil shipments to Europe

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-pdvsa-pauses-oil-for-debt-shipments-europe-wants-product-swaps-2022-08-12/

 

[Axeman123]

8 hours ago, Sidd said:

...Savills predicts 15% property growth in the next 5 years and that once Russians can re invest London prime property will go sky high again...The last cycle really did favour the brain dead.

Whoever devised the sanctions regime to permanently drive a wedge between the EU and Russian money deserves (immoral) credit for making it irreversible. Russians will never want assets inside the EU again.

The cycle really did filter for halfwit-ism, no rational actor would have bet on the outcomes we have seen.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

Venezuela halts oil shipments to Europe

Another country assumes "we will tell you what level of sanctions we find tolerable" status. Last major source of heavy crude suitable for producing diesel available to the west AIUI (from here).

[Lightscribe]

9 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The cycle really did filter for halfwit-ism, no rational actor would have bet on the outcomes we have seen.

No ‘rational’ actor. Depends on who took that bet. The desired outcome will be hugely beneficial to some.

[Harley]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Look at the director buys in the fund manager Ninety One plc.The vehicle Forty Two Point Two is a trust type fund with the directors,they are buying millions and consistent.I joined them last week.They know EMs and of course must fancy their AUM shooting up once things settle and people wake up to the massive wealth transfer.The west is left with no energy and millions and millions of bennie claiming immigrants,the Emerging world looks like the advanced world going forward.

Do you have any idea just how many holdings I already have!  I'd be better off buying low div stocks 'cause at least I could dump them with ease!  At least also tell us when you sell 'em!

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, Lightscribe said:

No ‘rational’ actor. Depends on who took that bet. The desired outcome will be hugely beneficial to some.

I take your point.

I am struggling to picture anyone long-term winning though. Sure governments kicked the can for a generation, and politicians like say Tony Blair got wealthy. But even then if the entire west went Venezuela who would be confident of staying comfortable in the aftermath? Even george Soros is only alive because he has the protection of the NATO etc nations, what would his life expectancy be under BRICS as global hedgemon? The only "win" possible - that I can see - is either: create a game of thrones tournament-world and try to get to the iron throne, or take things to the brink/buy up assets/pull the plane out of it's dive. I can't see any of the movers (that we see) actually thriving in the former scenario.

At a lower level, nearly everyone that has done well off the mania just keeps doubling down. I can't see any of them not ending up working in Wilkos aged 70 and telling anyone that will listen "I used to be rich..."

[Harley]

9 hours ago, Sidd said:

once installation demand

I'm thinking of this, but also getting the cert to DIY!