Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

7 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

The PM miners simply retraced the losses from Wednesday.

Agreed, at least for GFI.  It's been working the support levels for a while and has just done it again.  One day a support level will actually be a support level!

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

My plan was to travel around Europe in a van.  And then.......

There must be plenty of Schenzen countries you can get into with just a PCR test, then get the van!

2 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Tricky to avoid the covid restrictions imposed on travel. So far I've avoided anything to do with the testing nonsense and intend to do so for as long as I can.

Vive la resitance!

I think it'd be OK getting out with a PCR test, its the coming back in thats potentially the expensive headache.

[HousePriceMania]

15 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

I meant to make a comment about this yesterday.   This could be the straw that breaks the German's back, they might come down hard on the ECB now and end this insanity.  It's getting very interesting.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Probably a lot closer to the truth than the official number. 

[HousePriceMania]

 

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

My US stocks didn't do anything unusual.  Nor did the indicies.  Am I missing something? 

nasdaq went below 14600, ES under 4280......they're CFD charts but they'll base em on US futures

Disclaimer: I watch short timeframes 

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

Treasury yields/DXY are going up as the chance of a US default on Sovereign debt interest increases.

zero chance they'll default....they'll just bomb the shit out of the creditors in the name of democracy and freedom lol

[Majorpain]

53 minutes ago, Harley said:

Personally I cannot see an outright debt default, more one as part of a Breton Woods style monetary reset, and I see that a little while off (whatever that means these days).  I leave it to my betters here to postulate how that can be done.  All very fickle atm though so DYOR.

One of the other factors is energy is priced in dollars, so the current sky high prices across the world may be giving the dollar a bit of a boost.  That completely ignores that consumers/industry are not going to able to absorb sky high prices for long, the fickleness is probably a timing issue where the market knows its going to end badly at some point but when the dam breaks is currently unknown IMO.

[nirvana]

46 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I think it'd be OK getting out with a PCR test, its the coming back in thats potentially the expensive headache

that's been disproven by the rumble geezer, stand up for your rights dosbodder!!

https://rumble.com/vn3mo9-no-quarantine-no-2000-10-day-hotel-prison-service-all-charges-dropped.html

[Heart's Ease]

 

Ok I have no understanding of what this all means but I hope it's of interest to our macro rune readers.

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, Heart's Ease said:

 

Ok I have no understanding of what this all means but I hope it's of interest to our macro rune readers.

I'll guess that it means people are expecting interest rate rises imminently.

Though it was the last day of the quarter yesterday so people maybe had bills to pay.

[nirvana]

8 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Ok I have no understanding of what this all means but I hope it's of interest to our macro rune readers.

traders needed to liquidate some positions to cover margin calls in others? lol

might stick some buy orders in BATS at £25 <;)

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I moved onto my new fixed electric tariff today (I hope!).  Up a lot on the last one but at least below current rates and the new cap.  Amazing how much things can change in a few days.

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Interesting thread by a guy who's dug up a load of Michael Burrys trading philosophy from internet bulletin boards (remember those?) he was on from when he was just an amateur trader and Doctor. 

 

Apparently it was his postings on there that had him head hunted to start the investment fund he managed. Pretty amazing when you think about it. 

 

Well worth a read. One passage stood out for me as it reminded me of DBs approach. 

 

 

 

[nirvana]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

I moved onto my new fixed electric tariff today (I hope!).  Up a lot on the last one but at least below current rates and the new cap.  Amazing how much things can change in a few days.

for ref I'm still being charged 11 cents/kw for normal and 7cents off peak plus tax

anyway it mounts up to about the sum total of fuk all 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

I moved onto my new fixed electric tariff today (I hope!).  Up a lot on the last one but at least below current rates and the new cap.  Amazing how much things can change in a few days.

I got my dad on a three year fixed last year,he yarped a bit it was a tenner a month more,but he is happy now.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Probably a lot closer to the truth than the official number. 

I think inflation in lifes essentials is running at about that level.Interesting though some food is seeing no increases,mostly fresh veg etc and things people use to cook themselves.Im pleased about that.The inflation seems to be more in imported items and more labour intensive.I think housing is going to take the hit here,both rents and prices.Usually very sticky,but looking at the structure of things i think more people will live per house to save money.

[ThoughtCriminal]

The fucks that putin does not give. 

 

"But, we have a contract!" 

 

So fuck 😂

[Majorpain]

14 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The fucks that putin does not give. 

 

"But, we have a contract!" 

 

So fuck 😂

UK is actually in a surprisingly good place gas wise right now, domestic production will cover both domestic use and gas power.  I still think the price cap will have to go to get people to limit gas use marginally, if they don't either more utility companies go bust supplying at loss (or massive govt bailout) and/or the lights will go out at some point as Gas power stations run out of fuel.  Tight balancing rope especially if imports decrease significantly.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1006628/DUKES_2021_Chapter_4_Natural_gas.pdf

[HousePriceMania]

36 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The fucks that putin does not give. 

 

"But, we have a contract!" 

 

So fuck 😂

Putin, not a man to mess with...

https://www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2020/09/10/robert-kraft-putin-super-bowl-ring/

[reformed nice guy]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

I meant to make a comment about this yesterday.   This could be the straw that breaks the German's back, they might come down hard on the ECB now and end this insanity.  It's getting very interesting.

They used to say that Italians believe in God, the Germans believed in the Deutchmark.

The Euro was just a mechanism by Mitterand to force the Germans to submit to Euro Federalism. What can the rest of the Eurozone do if Germany stops playing along?

[jamtomorrow]

9 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Putin, not a man to mess with...

https://www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2020/09/10/robert-kraft-putin-super-bowl-ring/

I thought Russia famously honoured its contractual obligations e.g. delivering oil/gas to the West all through the Cold War? 

"The wind didn't blow" and "Vlad's decided we're on the naughty step" are materially different how, exactly?

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I have to disagree there, your flow chart correctly shows domestic production meeting less than half of demand, no matter how you slice it the UK is massively dependent on imports. With no stored reserves. It's beyond idiotic, and strategically dangerous imo.

Also, domestic production has declined since 2020, and will continue to do so.

Do over the likes of Centrica so Susan can spend an extra £2 a week on her nails was the jist of government policy for 20 years.The state wants the money for itself instead.Force down power bills a fiver a month,add it onto council tax instead.Structural mistakes due to troughing and no political backbone.Of course iv protected my family from it and leveraged the gains,but money isnt everything and i hate out political class .

[Hancock]

13 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

They used to say that Italians believe in God, the Germans believed in the Deutchmark.

The Euro was just a mechanism by Mitterand to force the Germans to submit to Euro Federalism. What can the rest of the Eurozone do if Germany stops playing along?

Germany wont stop playing along its fantastic for them to have a weak currency, best thing to have happened to them.

Germans have been pretending they're against printy printy and ZIRP since it began.

[reformed nice guy]

25 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

 

This geezer gets it 

 

 

This is what a lot of our politicians dont realise.

They arrogantly believe that the West will always be wealthier than the East, whereas in the real world the balance of power has been moving eastward.

We are being outbid for energy, eastern demand is growing and their economies on the whole are growing faster than ours