Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Hancock]

46 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/hmrc-to-move-to-newcastle-office-owned-by-tory-donors-via-tax-haven-302551/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=sfeu

 

there is something increasingly wrong in this land... 

Maybe the government have priced themselves out of the property market and have to rent.

[mcdongle]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Il just leave this with you ,they do everything to stop transfers and now this 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/pension-savers-shoe-horned-woke-funds/

Il give you a little something from the NEST report,

Total expense ratio 1.8% 

Holdings, 51% Global aware global equity.Tesla is in their top 10.

I returned in 16 months what they returned in 6 years.

 

"Sarah Pritchard, of the FCA, said: "These proposals will ensure that customers who don’t take financial advice can benefit from a professionally designed investment strategy, and reduce the risk of their retirement income being eroded by inflation."  

My sister has just invested with St James Place. initial charge 5% , ongoing 2%. Tried to get her to do it all herself and save on charges, She said she doesn't know enough about finance and investing.

Her job is CEO of a council.. And yes they have been buying up property but only when an expert!! says its worth buying.

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, mcdongle said:

My sister has just invested with St James Place. initial charge 5% , ongoing 2%. Tried to get her to do it all herself and save on charges, She said she doesn't know enough about finance and investing.

Her job is CEO of a council.. And yes they have been buying up property but only when an expert!! says its worth buying.

That doesnt surprise me as CEO of a council she doesnt understand compounding percentages, after all she puts 5% Council tax increases on everyone whos wages go up 2% so in the end the only people with any money will be her,and it seems St James Place.She fleeces workers,St James fleeces her.

[Sidd]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

That doesnt surprise me as CEO of a council she doesnt understand compounding percentages, after all she puts 5% Council tax increases on everyone whos wages go up 2% so in the end the only people with any money will be her,and it seems St James Place.She fleeces workers,St James fleeces her.

Seriously at this hour of the day, with my eyes half open, that was one of the best posts i could have read to put me to bed.

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Hancock said:

When i was last there about 3 years ago one of the locals i was working with was saying Chinese are buying up huge swathes of land.

I drove for about 10 hours from the Russian border to Aytrau and it was just unused flat land that went on forever, presumably viable for farming.

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Atyrau,+Kazakhstan/51.4552978,52.9619718/@50.8535822,51.2549209,964022m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m9!4m8!1m5!1m1!1s0x41a3ea26f5b2dd0d:0x3e4a125c0e268d2d!2m2!1d51.9238373!2d47.0944959!1m0!3e0

Yes, but China has been buying land all over the world, including the US. And i guess individual countries can easily control physical assets within their borders, export controls, etc... I mean even here Huawei has been given its marching orders. 

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Starsend said:

Well if silver went to $200 then your bar would be well north of $30000. Not so easy to sell probably and you can't split it up into different tax years for CGT. You'd take a big tax hit when you sold.

My 'friend'(?!) thanks you for the info. Though apparently for CGT, selling and then immediately buying back, say for example half the weight in the same commodity, makes you liable in tax terms for only 50% of the sale. 

[wherebee]

The new Botswana variant of COVID is causing futures to crater and oil is likely to follow.  If you want to back up the truck on oilies, this next trading session could be a nice one.

If XOM goes back below 59, I'll get some more.

[planit]

4 hours ago, wherebee said:

The new Botswana variant of COVID is causing futures to crater and oil is likely to follow.  If you want to back up the truck on oilies, this next trading session could be a nice one.

If XOM goes back below 59, I'll get some more.

I am not going to rush in, I nearly posted yesterday to say I can imagine US is seeing a similar ramp up in Covid cases as EU but they are not obsessed with testing like EU is so it might be growing a bit in the background.

I didn't see it as a big threat but enough to worry markets for a while.

VIX has been rising last few days too.

With this new strain I can imagine a few weeks of unease.

 

Sold a few oilies yesterday but now wish I sold 5 times the amount (thought I had some time before my theory played out).

[wherebee]

11 minutes ago, planit said:

I am not going to rush in, I nearly posted yesterday to say I can imagine US is seeing a similar ramp up in Covid cases as EU but they are not obsessed with testing like EU is so it might be growing a bit in the background.

I didn't see it as a big threat but enough to worry markets for a while.

VIX has been rising last few days too.

With this new strain I can imagine a few weeks of unease.

 

Sold a few oilies yesterday but now wish I sold 5 times the amount (thought I had some time before my theory played out).

Indeed, I have two main theories on what is going to happen - this winter is as bad as I think, and everything craters as the truth about shit vaccines comes out in the US and UK.  Gold, BTC, and miners do best.  Oilies drop (not crater) and we pick up more for the future (slim chance of green energy/climate change being trusted if the COVID vaccine lie is exposed).  My bellweather is Moderna, as I have been saying for months.

Or... a little dip now, governments continue to shift the narrative to 'awful COVID, get yer BOOSTERS' and oilies continue to grow as the supply continues to decline.  

Another macro element might be China invading Taiwan in the spring (only time when you have zero chance of typhoons).  In that case, gold to the moon, oil to the moon, etc.

It's all on a knife edge!~

[MrXxxx]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-4-2021-11-26/

It is now evident that a consortium are using Coronavirus [and its fear] to manipulate the market for entrance/exit points...the sooner we just accept to live with this virus, the sooner their advantage would be lost, so don't expect Coronavirus to 'disappear from the radar' for a long time.

[Boon]

Looks like some things might be on sale today....

The timing is convenient. Biden can't get cheaper oil by asking the Russians or OPEC, and the SPR release did feck all, this is probably a better way to go about it. Make people shit their pants with a new variant. 

[planit]

Ok, couldn't resist buying Some BP at 313p

 

I then had a hair-brained moment and added EasyJet, bit like a kid in a discount sweet-shop this morning 

[geordie_lurch]

I knew I should have added more stop losses when my Petrofac ones were triggered but I got distracted

[moneyscam]

26 minutes ago, planit said:

Ok, couldn't resist buying Some BP at 313p

 

I then had a hair-brained moment and added EasyJet, bit like a kid in a discount sweet-shop this morning 

Ha Ha I picked up EZJ as well for a quick in and out trade thinking there is a bit of an over reaction always at the open.

[AlfredTheLittle]

Looks like yet more panic over nothing. @Hancock is this the dip that you were waiting for?

[jamtomorrow]

From a thread on early genomics results -

"Finally S477N and Q498R, predicted in an experimental evolution paper to substantially increase ACE2 binding together with N501Y, but only seen in the wild separately or rarely. Seeing this full combination now (along with everything else) is grim"

The thread:

 

[planit]

5 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Looks like yet more panic over nothing. @Hancock is this the dip that you were waiting for?

The FT article was pretty scary in it's wording and imagery

 

But this virus is accelerating from almost zero cases (and the previous variants are under control) so it's not very surprising that nearly all cases are the new variant

The worrying part is this variant seems to render the vaccines less effective so this could be a wave that sweeps everywhere. It is already in a few countries.

 

Stupid comment of the day:

How does she know we are ahead of the variant? Seems a good probability that someone infected from South Africa has travelled to UK (which must be one of the top destinations from SA)

 

As I said earlier, I am expecting a US increase too due to the vaccines wearing off so if there is a bit of a stock market recovery in the next couple of trading days I will be selling. Everyone was getting a bit over-confident in the markets.

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Looks like crypto has shit it's pants as well.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, planit said:

Ok, couldn't resist buying Some BP at 313p

 

I then had a hair-brained moment and added EasyJet, bit like a kid in a discount sweet-shop this morning 

What's going on ?

[HousePriceMania]

Oh, new covid variant.  FTSE down 3%

I wish I hadn't bought some BP at 365 now.  Some guard against inflation that.

Just when the bankers need to raise the IRs a new variant is found 

You could make this up.

[BadAlchemy]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Oh, new covid variant.  FTSE down 3%

I wish I hadn't bought some BP at 365 now.  Some guard against inflation that.

Just when the bankers need to raise the IRs a new variant is found 

You could make this up.

Yep... scariants, lockdowns and "eating soybeans instead of turkey" are the the new anti inflation measures. Don't worry about BP at 3.65... rest of world will gobble up any surplus energy the West doesn't use while it beats itself up over the flu and then it will be even more expensive. 

[AlfredTheLittle]

23 minutes ago, planit said:

The FT article was pretty scary in it's wording and imagery

 

But this virus is accelerating from almost zero cases (and the previous variants are under control) so it's not very surprising that nearly all cases are the new variant

The worrying part is this variant seems to render the vaccines less effective so this could be a wave that sweeps everywhere. It is already in a few countries.

 

Stupid comment of the day:

How does she know we are ahead of the variant? Seems a good probability that someone infected from South Africa has travelled to UK (which must be one of the top destinations from SA)

 

As I said earlier, I am expecting a US increase too due to the vaccines wearing off so if there is a bit of a stock market recovery in the next couple of trading days I will be selling. Everyone was getting a bit over-confident in the markets.

 

 

If you think of the amount of news manipulation there has been over the last couple of years with covid, us election etc, a new strain is an easy panic to create and gives cover for failing vaccines, vaccine passport mandates, possibly lockdowns to choke off inflation etc. If I had cash I'd be being  that the new variant will quickly be forgotten, however I'm already fully invested and will hold on. It's good for the share buybacks at least.

[wherebee]

XOM heading nicely down towards 60. yummy.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Looks like yet more panic over nothing. @Hancock is this the dip that you were waiting for?

I'm biding my time, its just the start of winter and i can see this "new killer vaccine" growing legs, all in the name of forcing more people to do as they're told and take the vaccine.

The USA hasn't played their hand yet, once they do their bit in tightening up their country things should get more interesting.

[Hancock]

27 minutes ago, wherebee said:

XOM heading nicely down towards 60. yummy.

Whats so good about 60, it was 52 just 3 months ago!