Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[leonardratso]

wonder if DBs effected thus;

	Keeping You Informed

NORTHERN POWERGRID NETWORK SUSTAINING DAMAGE AS STORM ARWEN CONTINUES TO HIT THE REGION Storm Arwen brings windspeeds of up to 100 mph and largest storm to impact our electricity distribution network since 2005 More than 219,000 customers affected since 6pm last night (26 November) More than 111,000 customers' power successfully restored Some 108,000 customers still affected as result of Storm Arwen Continued storm force winds mean it is currently unsafe for teams to climb and repair any damage caused to overhead power lines by fallen trees and flying debris Our engineers are restoring power remotely wherever possible and teams of hundreds of employees are poised and ready to carry out repairs in the field as soon as conditions permit We are asking customers to only contact us if they need to report a dangerous electrical incident or are off supply and are medically dependent on electricity We are continuing to see significant damage to our power network as a result of Storm Arwen. The storm force winds of up to 100mph have caused power cuts for more than 219,000 customers, mainly in Northumberland, County Durham and Tyne and Wear and continued severe gales of more than 65mph are forecast until around 6pm this evening. More than 530 instances of damage requiring repair have occurred since 6pm yesterday. More than 110,000 customers' power supplies have been successfully restored by 11.45am this morning. Continued gale force winds mean it is still remains unsafe for our teams to climb and repair any damage caused to overhead power lines mainly by fallen trees and flying debris. Travel in some areas is also proving very difficult and unsafe due to the ongoing weather conditions.   As a result of the ongoing situation, we expect that many customers will be off supply for the majority of the day and into tomorrow, or when it is safe to carry out restoration and repairs. Our 24-hour contact centre is understandably receiving a high volume of calls and so we are asking if Customers could help us by only contacting us on 105 if they need to report a dangerous electrical incident or are off supply and are medically dependent on electricity. Customers can also use their mobile to visit our Twitter (@northpowergrid) and Facebook pages where the we will continue to provide regular updates and advice to customers and local communities. Power cut advice and tips include: turn off electrical appliances at the socket (this is particularly important for heating or cooking appliances as your power could be restored at any time and potentially cause a safety hazard) keep one light switched on so you know when power is restored keep a battery or wind-up torch handy - they're much safer than candles bookmark Northern Powergrid's online power cut reporting service on your mobile devices - www.northernpowergrid.com/power-cuts and add 105, the free power cut, to mobile phone contact details have a charged mobile phone with important numbers, including Northern Powergrid's contact details, easily accessible. check on your elderly or sick neighbours and relatives ensure you have warm clothing and blankets handy and some food and drink in your home that does not require electricity to heat or prepare it only call 999 in the event of an emergency.     Yours sincerely Louise Lowes Head of Customer Services

[jamtomorrow]

18 minutes ago, Loki said:

Inflation must have been running too hot.  Time for another velocity restricter 

If only. Wednesday print shows M2V continuing to die on its arse. 

[Hancock]

6 hours ago, Harley said:

Game on. 

This may have legs

Any other approaches out there?

Boris has just made sure its got legs.

My approach is to buy a shit load of oilies over the coming weeks. (presuming they crash)

[Loki]

15 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

If only. Wednesday print shows M2V continuing to die on its arse. 

Is there one for the UK economy?

[Harley]

35 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

wonder if DBs effected thus;

	Keeping You Informed

NORTHERN POWERGRID NETWORK SUSTAINING DAMAGE AS STORM ARWEN CONTINUES TO HIT THE REGION Storm Arwen brings windspeeds of up to 100 mph and largest storm to impact our electricity distribution network since 2005 More than 219,000 customers affected since 6pm last night (26 November) More than 111,000 customers' power successfully restored Some 108,000 customers still affected as result of Storm Arwen Continued storm force winds mean it is currently unsafe for teams to climb and repair any damage caused to overhead power lines by fallen trees and flying debris Our engineers are restoring power remotely wherever possible and teams of hundreds of employees are poised and ready to carry out repairs in the field as soon as conditions permit We are asking customers to only contact us if they need to report a dangerous electrical incident or are off supply and are medically dependent on electricity We are continuing to see significant damage to our power network as a result of Storm Arwen. The storm force winds of up to 100mph have caused power cuts for more than 219,000 customers, mainly in Northumberland, County Durham and Tyne and Wear and continued severe gales of more than 65mph are forecast until around 6pm this evening. More than 530 instances of damage requiring repair have occurred since 6pm yesterday. More than 110,000 customers' power supplies have been successfully restored by 11.45am this morning. Continued gale force winds mean it is still remains unsafe for our teams to climb and repair any damage caused to overhead power lines mainly by fallen trees and flying debris. Travel in some areas is also proving very difficult and unsafe due to the ongoing weather conditions.   As a result of the ongoing situation, we expect that many customers will be off supply for the majority of the day and into tomorrow, or when it is safe to carry out restoration and repairs. Our 24-hour contact centre is understandably receiving a high volume of calls and so we are asking if Customers could help us by only contacting us on 105 if they need to report a dangerous electrical incident or are off supply and are medically dependent on electricity. Customers can also use their mobile to visit our Twitter (@northpowergrid) and Facebook pages where the we will continue to provide regular updates and advice to customers and local communities. Power cut advice and tips include: turn off electrical appliances at the socket (this is particularly important for heating or cooking appliances as your power could be restored at any time and potentially cause a safety hazard) keep one light switched on so you know when power is restored keep a battery or wind-up torch handy - they're much safer than candles bookmark Northern Powergrid's online power cut reporting service on your mobile devices - www.northernpowergrid.com/power-cuts and add 105, the free power cut, to mobile phone contact details have a charged mobile phone with important numbers, including Northern Powergrid's contact details, easily accessible. check on your elderly or sick neighbours and relatives ensure you have warm clothing and blankets handy and some food and drink in your home that does not require electricity to heat or prepare it only call 999 in the event of an emergency.     Yours sincerely Louise Lowes Head of Customer Services

We had a power cut last night.  My lovely new UPS kicked in for the duration.  Resilience!

[jamtomorrow]

44 minutes ago, Loki said:

Is there one for the UK economy?

I've not seen one.

But since it's supposedly just nominal GDP divided by the money supply at the time, it shouldn't be hard to construct one.

Mind you, navigating the money supply BoE datasets it's hard to tell which is which (makes you appreciate FRED). But I *think* this is the M2 we'd want (good god, look at the size of the URL)...

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/fromshowcolumns.asp?Travel=NIxAZxSUx&FromSeries=1&ToSeries=50&DAT=RNG&FD=1&FM=Jan&FY=2010&TD=11&TM=May&TY=2025&FNY=Y&CSVF=TT&html.x=66&html.y=26&SeriesCodes=LPQVWYW&UsingCodes=Y&Filter=N&title=LPQVWYW&VPD=Y

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

I've not seen one.

But since it's supposedly just nominal GDP divided by the money supply at the time, it shouldn't be hard to construct one.

Mind you, navigating the money supply BoE datasets it's hard to tell which is which (makes you appreciate FRED). But I *think* this is the M2 we'd want (good god, look at the size of the URL)...

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/fromshowcolumns.asp?Travel=NIxAZxSUx&FromSeries=1&ToSeries=50&DAT=RNG&FD=1&FM=Jan&FY=2010&TD=11&TM=May&TY=2025&FNY=Y&CSVF=TT&html.x=66&html.y=26&SeriesCodes=LPQVWYW&UsingCodes=Y&Filter=N&title=LPQVWYW&VPD=Y

Thanks for persevering, what a mess.  It looks like our chart is "Up" anyway 

[jamtomorrow]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Thanks for persevering, what a mess.  It looks like our chart is "Up" anyway 

Yeah, which given GDP growth has been anaemic at best ought to give us a similar velocity profile to US. I might run it through a spreadsheet out of interest.

There's likely to be devil in the detail of how M2 is defined, so I doubt it would be valid to compare absolute velocity numbers. But comparing the respective profiles might be interesting.

[Noallegiance]

It was about time they came up with a reason for the next QE injection. Things were running out of steam.

[JMD]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

Isn't this what Dave Hunter predicted, a short-term correction in oilies? Or is this just part of the current general SP500 pullback? Though I think DH still expects the index to go well past 6000++ into next year.                                                                           I note Rockhopper is sometimes in your list, but sometimes it's not... are you teasing us SP!! (I own it so from here am expecting a 100x!!, though def. not advice).

Oops, i should have said DHs forecast was and is SP5300++ (not 6000).

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, leonardratso said:

wonder if DBs effected thus;

	Keeping You Informed

NORTHERN POWERGRID NETWORK SUSTAINING DAMAGE AS STORM ARWEN CONTINUES TO HIT THE REGION Storm Arwen brings windspeeds of up to 100 mph and largest storm to impact our electricity distribution network since 2005 More than 219,000 customers affected since 6pm last night (26 November) More than 111,000 customers' power successfully restored Some 108,000 customers still affected as result of Storm Arwen Continued storm force winds mean it is currently unsafe for teams to climb and repair any damage caused to overhead power lines by fallen trees and flying debris Our engineers are restoring power remotely wherever possible and teams of hundreds of employees are poised and ready to carry out repairs in the field as soon as conditions permit We are asking customers to only contact us if they need to report a dangerous electrical incident or are off supply and are medically dependent on electricity We are continuing to see significant damage to our power network as a result of Storm Arwen. The storm force winds of up to 100mph have caused power cuts for more than 219,000 customers, mainly in Northumberland, County Durham and Tyne and Wear and continued severe gales of more than 65mph are forecast until around 6pm this evening. More than 530 instances of damage requiring repair have occurred since 6pm yesterday. More than 110,000 customers' power supplies have been successfully restored by 11.45am this morning. Continued gale force winds mean it is still remains unsafe for our teams to climb and repair any damage caused to overhead power lines mainly by fallen trees and flying debris. Travel in some areas is also proving very difficult and unsafe due to the ongoing weather conditions.   As a result of the ongoing situation, we expect that many customers will be off supply for the majority of the day and into tomorrow, or when it is safe to carry out restoration and repairs. Our 24-hour contact centre is understandably receiving a high volume of calls and so we are asking if Customers could help us by only contacting us on 105 if they need to report a dangerous electrical incident or are off supply and are medically dependent on electricity. Customers can also use their mobile to visit our Twitter (@northpowergrid) and Facebook pages where the we will continue to provide regular updates and advice to customers and local communities. Power cut advice and tips include: turn off electrical appliances at the socket (this is particularly important for heating or cooking appliances as your power could be restored at any time and potentially cause a safety hazard) keep one light switched on so you know when power is restored keep a battery or wind-up torch handy - they're much safer than candles bookmark Northern Powergrid's online power cut reporting service on your mobile devices - www.northernpowergrid.com/power-cuts and add 105, the free power cut, to mobile phone contact details have a charged mobile phone with important numbers, including Northern Powergrid's contact details, easily accessible. check on your elderly or sick neighbours and relatives ensure you have warm clothing and blankets handy and some food and drink in your home that does not require electricity to heat or prepare it only call 999 in the event of an emergency.     Yours sincerely Louise Lowes Head of Customer Services

Iv got enough Calor gas to fill Rough and all my electric battery back ups charged.Lots of tiles etc off around here,mine ok though and daughters,my pointing over summer must of been decent 

[leonardratso]

in hand;

	Keeping You Informed

Our engineers have restored power to around 182,000 of some 240,000 homes and businesses whose power supplies have been affected by Storm Arwen. We remain focused on working to safely restore power to the 58,000 customers still affected as soon as we can. While the storm has now passed through the region, work is still required to repair the damage it has left behind in its wake. We're currently responding to the remaining 700 of some 900 instances of damage. Our engineers are continuing to restore customers by switching electricity supplies, where possible, through alternative routes on the network and we're ready to safely recommence with repairs at first light.    Important If you are currently without power, it is very likely that you will be off supply through the night and into tomorrow. If you can seek alternative accommodation with family and friends it is recommended to do so - or if you know someone without power, consider if you can offer support. We are prioritising those that are medically dependent on electricity. Our contact centre, social media and website remain extremely busy. We ask that you only contact us if you are at risk, so we can help keep our channels clear for those who may need us.   Today has been one of the most challenging we have seen in over a decade with our teams being unable to safely climb for over 24 hours, due to the storm force winds.  Although this has been frustrating, safety of our people is paramount. We have focused our efforts on work which could be completed to assess the scale of damage and response needed to repair the network. The storm has caused varying degrees of damage across the whole of our operating area, with the North East region taking the brunt of the storm. Fallen trees and flying debris have damaged electricity infrastructure in numerous locations and travel conditions remain challenging in some places. Our Customer Support Vehicles have been deployed in communities, wherever possible, to support customers and we continue to work with the British Red Cross and multi-agency partners to support those most vulnerable. If weather conditions remain as forecasted, from first light we will use our helicopter to spot damage locations and inform its teams on the ground. Please remember that anyone who spots any damaged cables or equipment must not approach the area as equipment may still be live and pose a risk of electrocution but should contact us immediately by calling 105.

[JimmyTheBruce]

8 hours ago, leonardratso said:

in hand;

	Keeping You Informed

Our engineers have restored power to around 182,000 of some 240,000 homes and businesses whose power supplies have been affected by Storm Arwen. We remain focused on working to safely restore power to the 58,000 customers still affected as soon as we can. While the storm has now passed through the region, work is still required to repair the damage it has left behind in its wake. We're currently responding to the remaining 700 of some 900 instances of damage. Our engineers are continuing to restore customers by switching electricity supplies, where possible, through alternative routes on the network and we're ready to safely recommence with repairs at first light.    Important If you are currently without power, it is very likely that you will be off supply through the night and into tomorrow. If you can seek alternative accommodation with family and friends it is recommended to do so - or if you know someone without power, consider if you can offer support. We are prioritising those that are medically dependent on electricity. Our contact centre, social media and website remain extremely busy. We ask that you only contact us if you are at risk, so we can help keep our channels clear for those who may need us.   Today has been one of the most challenging we have seen in over a decade with our teams being unable to safely climb for over 24 hours, due to the storm force winds.  Although this has been frustrating, safety of our people is paramount. We have focused our efforts on work which could be completed to assess the scale of damage and response needed to repair the network. The storm has caused varying degrees of damage across the whole of our operating area, with the North East region taking the brunt of the storm. Fallen trees and flying debris have damaged electricity infrastructure in numerous locations and travel conditions remain challenging in some places. Our Customer Support Vehicles have been deployed in communities, wherever possible, to support customers and we continue to work with the British Red Cross and multi-agency partners to support those most vulnerable. If weather conditions remain as forecasted, from first light we will use our helicopter to spot damage locations and inform its teams on the ground. Please remember that anyone who spots any damaged cables or equipment must not approach the area as equipment may still be live and pose a risk of electrocution but should contact us immediately by calling 105.

Just out of interest @leonardratso, who are those mails coming from?  National Grid?

[leonardratso]

7 hours ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

Just out of interest @leonardratso, who are those mails coming from?  National Grid?

dunno, started getting them after i joined octopus about 18 or so months ago, i assume so, i also get the occasional one saying who to call if you smell gas - so with my arse im calling every 2 hours.

 

from:    Northern Powergrid <[email protected]> reply-to:    Northern Powergrid <[email protected]> date:    27 Nov 2021, 23:10 subject:    Northern Powergrid: Customer Update - Storm Arwen mailed-by:    northernpowergrid.com Signed by:    northernpowergrid.com

[stoobs]

We were in Scabby for the weekend. Got the Northern Powergrid text at 4.15am on Saturday to say power had been lost back home. We found out from neighbours it was put back on after 10 hours so no drama.

Got back just now to find the main fuse box RCD tripped and so we’d had no power for 36 hours. Lounge was 9 deg C 

On the way home tried to get to the Lion Inn at Blakey Ridge for the first time since Covid began. Got within 3 miles but wimped out when the road disappeared completely in the snow. Didn’t trust my 2WD car (or my snow driving skills).

[ThoughtCriminal]

43 minutes ago, stoobs said:

We were in Scabby for the weekend. Got the Northern Powergrid text at 4.15am on Saturday to say power had been lost back home. We found out from neighbours it was put back on after 10 hours so no drama.

Got back just now to find the main fuse box RCD tripped and so we’d had no power for 36 hours. Lounge was 9 deg C 

On the way home tried to get to the Lion Inn at Blakey Ridge for the first time since Covid began. Got within 3 miles but wimped out when the road disappeared completely in the snow. Didn’t trust my 2WD car (or my snow driving skills).

You're a braver man than me trying to get to the Lion in snow without 4wd

 

Turns into the Arctic wilderness up there in winter. I was hiking over there last winter, was brutal.

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-10248943/Private-equity-firms-send-value-BT-cable-arm-40BN.html

This is my big worry with BT and others that they get taken out before we get the value.I value BT at £3.50 + dividends by the end of the cycle,but selling any bits now would really hit that.

Our market is simply unable to value things right because they arent pricing from an inflation side.

[moneyscam]

Waiting for S&P futures to start trading on Globex to get a feel for tomorrows open. One cross FX rate I keep an eye on as a gauge of flight to quality is EUR / CHF. This is hitting multi year lows last seen when the SNB abandoned the 1.20 floor early 2015. Vix is the other I use to measure extremes of fear to pick trading bottoms. Vix futures (VX) not open yet either but if it can stay below 27 I would be confident in going long for short term trades.

Alas I don't work in the markets anymore so don't have access to other useful indicators like the credit indices which I found to be leading indicators for the wider equity indices.

My gut feel is we'll digest the omicron fear for another day Monday before a bounce. As usual DYOR, not advice etc etc.

 

[leonardratso]

13 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

Waiting for S&P futures to start trading on Globex to get a feel for tomorrows open. One cross FX rate I keep an eye on as a gauge of flight to quality is EUR / CHF. This is hitting multi year lows last seen when the SNB abandoned the 1.20 floor early 2015. Vix is the other I use to measure extremes of fear to pick trading bottoms. Vix futures (VX) not open yet either but if it can stay below 27 I would be confident in going long for short term trades.

Alas I don't work in the markets anymore so don't have access to other useful indicators like the credit indices which I found to be leading indicators for the wider equity indices.

My gut feel is we'll digest the omicron fear for another day Monday before a bounce. As usual DYOR, not advice etc etc.

 

bitcoins been tanking along with everything else all weekend, but started pumping again, probably nothing ....

[Boon]

With nothing happening I can see the indices up by 1% or so - there hasn't been anything new that is bad about Omicron and we could revert to a default case that orthodox science says that viruses mutate themselves to become more tranmissable but less deadly at the same time.

There is even one hiding in plain sight: the flu was the cause of multiple very bad pandemics in the past, but in recent years simply downgraded to 'one of those things' and most normal people certainly didn't bother with a vaccine. I don't see why covid should not eventually end up going the same way.

However I don't think this is satisfactory for governments, I just wouldn't be surprised if the news flow turns bad again in the week.

 

[moneyscam]

6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

bitcoins been tanking along with everything else all weekend, but started pumping again, probably nothing ....

VX has opened down to 24 from 26 close and WTI up 3% so I wouldn't say nothing. Experience has taught me Asian open doesn't always necessarily carry through to European open but I'm cautiously optimistic.

[Viceroy]

On 26/11/2021 at 00:28, JMD said:

Viceroy, thanks for doing that summary. I will read some of those links as I'd like to understand more of Armstrong's hypothesis. However, one big part of his thesis jumps out at me, I am maybe oversimplifying - but he says socialism will die after 2032... So does he expect authoritarianism to continue afterwards, maybe in the form of 'right wing'?  Or is he predicting total breakdown and world anarchy?... Which I guess would kind of fit with his other predictions of national structural breakups and then reforming of countries including the USA?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/socialist/final-battle-with-socialism/
watch the video

He's mentioned in the past that SE Asia will be the least authoritarian and obviously he moved south to Florida 6 years ago cos his crystal ball computer forecast a shit show for the blue states (he's from New Jersey), plus much colder weather coming from global cooling. He says Republics are the worst form of Government as they always turn into oligarchies. The Roman Empire lasted 1000 yrs he puts down to them having no debt and no central bank.

I couldn't stand Armstrong the first time I started reading him.  He warned to stay away from Gold just as I had bought a chunk. Turned out he was right. He's not gonna be everyone's cup of tea but his macro is definitely playing out.

Today's ode to joy = 'This is a power play to prepare the world for this Great Reset where they get to default on all their debt while pretending, of course, they are doing this for you. Schwab's claim you will own nothing and be happy is a ploy. It is the government that needs to default on all its debt and to hide that objective, they will cancel all debt and pretend this is all for you - not them. The markets are taking notice and you can see that at the first hint of another mutation and Pfizer saying will have a new vaccine out in a matter of weeks forgetting long-term testing ensuring that they too will expire in 6 months necessitating a new vaccine for every mutation until our arms look like Swiss Cheese, is not going to be the future, Enough is enough and I have already warned that Pfizer stock will peak out in 2022 and will become a major short'

[leonardratso]

13 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

VX has opened down to 24 from 26 close and WTI up 3% so I wouldn't say nothing. Experience has taught me Asian open doesn't always necessarily carry through to European open but I'm cautiously optimistic.

might have legs;

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, moneyscam said:

My gut feel is we'll digest the omicron fear for another day Monday before a bounce. As usual DYOR, not advice etc etc.

Seems as if its a bounce on Monday as oil is up 4.6% at time of typing, see what happens with the tightening of restrictions throughout the western world over the coming days and weeks.

IMHO Euro govts, Boris and Biden haven't got it in them to merely force masks and a bit more testing upon arriving in the country, it goes against their new found powers.

But maybe BP at 310p was as good as its going to get for now!

[No One]

I just read a headline that Evergrande is about to pop for real this time

 

Anyone got more info?