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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko
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9 hours ago, Viceroy said:
For those interested here are Armstrong's snippets - a mix of his private blog & public articles. Highlights are mine.
 
Written Feb 2019; 
'There is a serious risk that after 2032, this will be very much like the fall of Rome. Nonetheless, it is my personal hope that if we understand that risk, we can avert it and move to a new type of wave formation and learn from the past just once thereby advancing to the next level of understanding. At the lower threshold of risk lies that reality whereby at the very minimum we are looking at the collapse of centralized governments as took place in 1989 with communism. That will result in greater separatist movements and the breakup of national states as we know it today. The USA could break into four main regions. Britain would find it too splits and Scotland, as well as Wales and Ireland, revert back to their origins.
So what the computer is showing is the rise in civil unrest and the risk of war.
This is part of what the computer is forecasting – the collapse of governments as we have known. 
Furthermore, we are looking at the collapse of socialism the same as communism. Both were derived from Karl Marx. They are both unsustainable economically. The pension system is collapsing with many municipal governments having near or more people on retirement than working.'

'I repeat, there does not appear to be a major stock market correction on the immediate horizon. Major DOW JONES support lies at the 29000-31000 level. Our extreme projected resistance remains well above the market at 68,000. That appears to be the ultimate end game which is a factor of the rising inflation ahead. 
Please keep in mind that we DO NOT SEE a major long-term bear market on the horizon. That is reserved for the bond market. Otherwise, keep in mind that the amount of capital invested in bonds is typically 10x1 with respect to stock. This is why the Dow can eventually rise to 65,000 as money pours out of government debt for the European Central Bank is TRAPPED and cannot raise interest rates without committing financial suicide.'

'To get such a crash in the stock market this time requires capital controls or a complete collapse in government and the financial system. During the Great Depression, sovereign defaults began in Europe. This pushed the dollar higher but not the US share market. Note that the dollar rose in value during World War I, the 1931 Sovereign Debt Crisis, and again for World War II. During those waves of capital flows, the bulk of that capital always moved into government bonds. We are facing a collapse in public confidence in government. How will capital move this time around when capital is moving away from governments? Will we see it move into the private sector exclusively, or will there be a capital flight to China as it becomes the USA of the 1930s?'

'The safest currency still is the dollar, although there may be a correction into 2022 because these people behind the throne are going to try to manufacture a great depression. They are assuming that if they can manufacture a Great Depression, then the people will surrender all their rights as was the case in how FDR got through his New Deal. The greenback (DXY) must close ABOVE 74.50 at year-end to retain any upward momentum even short-term...
We should see a correction in early 2022, so cash will become king for now. They think by collapsing the world stock markets that paper money will be blamed and that will push the next leg of their agenda through - the elimination of paper money.  Be on guard, for their agenda is not going to be so easy as they think. We are dealing with some very evil people here.
We may yet see a correction in equities which will set the stage for a slingshot up thereafter.

The USA is 50 states and each is sovereign. That means that no president can order a nationwide decree to shut all businesses and lock the people down. You see in Europe that head of state can shut the entire country down. Thus, it can get a lot worse outside the USA which remains bullish on capital inflows.

The key weeks ahead will be November 22nd and December 6th
We are looking at a collapse in public confidence on a global scale. The markets are going to respond like NEVER before and all the old theories are out the window. So buckel-up. This will be a very interesting ride into 2022.  We are in the midst of a Monetary Crisis Cycle and that means that we should expect the OPPOSITE of the traditional patterns. Normally, a stock market crash results in a flight to quality which is government bonds. But when it is the government in crisis, the capital flees to the equities. This is why so many people are simply confused.

The dollar strength in the years ahead is from an international capital flow perspective so that is simply relative to other currencies and has NOTHING to do with its purchasing power. The second part of this enigma is the fact that the purchasing power of all currencies will decline. This is the reality as these countries abandon all fiscal responsibility.
Then we have the crisis in sovereign debt. Already, we see that Europe has destroyed its bond market. In that regard, capital from Europe has been moving to both US and China debt markets. This is a real crisis for it signals that Europe and Japan have wiped out their ability to fund their debts and this will contribute to the overall decline in the purchasing power of ALL currencies.
Then we have the move to eliminate paper money and move to the digital world because they are trying to tax everyone and stop the hoarding of cash. The US will do the same, but there will be a delay for the dollar is the reserve currency and 70% of paper dollars are outside the USA. This presents a much more difficult problem in canceling the currency.
Then add to this mess the rising problems of geopolitical tensions and the coming war. The lockdowns have increased the tensions among the populations around the world and they will want to blame someone. This is the seed of war. When we add the War Cycle into this mix, we will see the capital flows still toward the United States for it is impossible to actually invade with troops and tanks.
Then we have the shift in assets from Public to Private as well as the flight from urban to suburban.
Therefore, the confusion out there exists because we have these complex trends. The rise in the dollar after this initial retest of support is not in jeopardy long-term in the least. As with any trend, there are always counter-reactions. We face a serious rise in inflation so the dollar will decline in purchasing power, yet rise against world currencies as the economic conditions are in peril outside the USA thanks to negative interest rates and the collapse in debt markets.

It appears that the Panic Cycle we have in politics for 2022 will result in the Democrats losing control so the policies are then once again subject to change. However, the geopolitical risks are rising substantially and it looks like we will have World War III post-2024.
So for now, the dollar should be soft in 2021, then reverse again and during 2022, that is when the capital flows will head to the dollar-based assets. This will most likely be the push and spin that digital currency will be better than paper. We may see the end of paper money in many countries outside the USA in 2022.

Interestingly, 2015.75 was the start of the Big Bang, the sovereign debt crisis that will lead to the total collapse of governmental debt on a global scale 17.2 years from that turning point — 2032. Nevertheless, there remains the risk of a temporary high in 2021 followed by a two-year decline as politics becomes chaotic. Our Panic Cycles in 2022 and 2024 in politics have not appeared since the Great Depression. So everywhere we look, there is nothing but chaos and strange patterns in markets not seen in 100 years.
The alternative is a rally into 2023 if we get new highs beyond May, but that would warn of a potential decline into 2025

..major all-time highs unfold when everyone who has ever thought about buying has bought. We are not at that level and the only opportunity for that seems to be possible in 2022. Keep in mind that 2022 is also a Panic Cycle in politics. I would not even venture a guess what that means at this stage in the game.
 shortages have already led to rising prices and consumers are starting to realize that it may be cheaper to buy today because whatever it is will be more expensive tomorrow. That is the REAL stimulus to inflation – not the increase in money supply which has been exponential since the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis with no inflationary impact. As long as the consumer does not trust the future, then they hoard their cash. Inflation emerges ONLY when they see that it is no longer beneficial to hoard their cash. That is the psychology we are now entering

While our near-term target in the Dow Jones Industrials remains in the 36,000-37,000 range, we are still in a position to test the 40,000 number on a broader-term. What you must keep in mind are the capital flows. reflecting the international capital flows for foreign money always go for the blue-chips.

The DEMISE of the dollar is underway, but it will take time. It appears the dollar will lose that status by 2028 and it will be gone by 2036. What BigTech is doing right now with their insane censorship is in fact the overthrow of the United States and setting it in fact for the collapse that our Computer has been forecast post-2032.

'Our computer picked up a shift in capital flows which was the start of the REPO Crisis 2 weeks before in August 2019. It appears that Trump was set up for they were gaining authority to expand for influenza - not COVID. By November 2019, there were whispers that a virus was coming. By December, that is when Bill Gates began to dump stock. By January 2020, I knew people were being told a virus was coming from multiple sources.'

Question: I'm confused about the big picture. Schwab and company will lose, but Socrates' forecast of civil unrest, international war, and the breakup of the US doesn't seem like a win for us. Is the crash and burn inevitable regardless of what we do, and is that what is necessary to defeat Marxism?
Also, you said Schwab really only has until the end of next year to succeed. I think the ECM for the Private Wave shows Authoritarianism rising into 2028.65. How might that play out if Schwab doesn't succeed next year?
Answer: Schwab will not succeed in creating a docile world where we will all own nothing but be happy. That is separate from the crash & burn because he has accelerated the deficits as politicians think that they will be able to end borrowing and just print whatever they need. In addition, they have deliberately created this crisis in the supply chain. Add to that, these people are shutting down fossil fuels NOW, decades before any renewable energy could ever possibly replace them which is seriously down. Wind and solar provide such a minimal amount of power that they would never be able to heat homes no less service all-electric cars, and the internet.
He will fail in his communist dream, but he has accelerated the Crash & Burn. Governments only listened to him because Socialism is collapsing. The nonsense of you will own nothing but be happy is a cover for the Sovereign Debt Default. They are pretending to end all of your debt and usher in Guaranteed Basic Income to eliminate pensions they have bankrupted, for they can default on their national debts. Government NEVER does anything for the people - it is always about their self-interest.
So we will still Crash & Burn, the Western will collapse, and the financial capital of the world is moving to China. The computer forecasted this trend decades ago and that will not change. It is not that China is so fantastic, it is that Schwab, Soros, and Gates have combined thinking they will control the world, but their scheme is failing.
 
I understand how so many keep spinning the conspiracy theory that paints the central banks as the evil people behind the curtain. The central banks are taking orders from above because the government can no longer borrow to fund their annual spending. The proposal for digital currencies if you trace it came from the WEF via Lagarde at the IMF and then the ECB. This is a crisis of debt and the system is collapsing and they can no longer kick the can down the road.
Talk of the Fed taking direct deposits is ending the Primary Dealer network of banks who have been able to manipulate markets without prosecution because the Gov't needed them to sell their debt. That is coming to an end so the entire financial system is being turned upside down.
 
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/banking-crisis/have-central-banks-crossed-the-line-into-tyranny/
Now, the automated clearinghouse (ACH) system is changing to allow direct deposits from non-banks – i.e. Big Tech in repayment for censorship. On December 23, 2019, the Board approved modifications to the Federal Reserve Banks’ National Settlement Service and Fedwire Funds Service to support enhancements to the same-day ACH service preparing for digital currencies. On September 25, 2020, the Board amended the implementation date for certain modifications. They are preparing for a digital currency, but this means two things.
By this Fed expansion, they are planning for the long-term for the elimination of public debt, in which case there will no longer be primary dealer banks, and hence no need to bail out the banks when they blow up on trading, assuming they will still be allowed to trade in the future.
Once the Fed moves to create its own digital currency, it is no longer the independent entity it was once supposed to be. Welcome to the new 21st century of a hybrid central bank, end of primary dealers, and the elimination of government debt. All for your security, so you do not revolt when the government system collapses.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-economics-upcoming-events/world-economic-conference/the-authoritarian-rule-the-post-2032-hope/
Based upon reports from inside several governments, the IMF has been directing all central banks to terminate paper money by 2022 and move to digital currencies. The real motive here is to terminate the underground economy and to ensure that everyone is 100% taxed as they determine. This has been the driving force behind the shift toward tangible assets with real estate, collectibles, and equities rising. This has been capital trying to get off the grid.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/banking-crisis/bigtech-replacing-banks-2/
Back in 2020, I had information that BigTech was lining up and was promised that they would be handed online banking if they helped to remove Trump. BigTech was promised the power to overthrow the banks. Governments were also secretly allowing BitCoin to take hold to convince people digital currencies were better than paper. The powers that be want everyone in the banking system to end once and for all paper money.When government eliminates all paper money, the next step will be to seize all pensions and that will be replaced with Guaranteed Basic Income. In that manner, they will be able to default on all government debt and the Modern Monetary Theory will become reality by restraining our liberty if not entirely eliminating it.
This has been what I have been fighting against for these past years. I did the Solution Conference in 2015 because these were the very proposals I was arguing against behind the curtain between 2012 and 2015. The idea of allowing digital currencies surfaced during the 2007-2009 crisis. The bankers blew up the world again and the Fed had to bail out AIG. Bitcoin emerged in 2008 as a theory to circumvent the banks because they would routinely blow up the financial world and they expect to be bailed out because the government needed them to sell their debt. That is when they realized that the system had to change.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/draft/
The cycle cannot be altered. The very best we can hope for is to reduce the amplitude. My concern involves what comes AFTER this chaos post-2032. The danger of Marxism in any form, Socialist to Communist, is that these morons think they can have a better life. They end up creating a police state whereby they surrender all their rights to ensure the oppression of others, who they hate because they are told that they are the victims of the rich. I am against oppression and socialistic philosophy, for it leads only to one place.
The very first wave into this cycle saw the collapse of communism 1989.95, and 43 years later (half 86-year cycle), we will meet the collapse of Western socialism. There is no stopping this cycle. To survive, we need to understand the trend in order to step out of the way when it comes.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/is-socialism-dying/
It is dying because the social programs can no longer be funded from pensions to the size of government employment. Because this is dying, it also results in aggressive fighting back in the system to try to save it.
Unfortunately, we have the last twelve years left. Marxism never works. They have tried it so many times. It fails because they try desperately to change human nature. They constantly portray someone having more than they do as evil and unjust. We are all created equal in rights, but not in talents. Some people faint at the sight of blood and others can be doctors. Some are great athletes and others can’t run 20 yards. We should see the end of Marxism with the collapse of governments beginning in 2032 moving into 2037/2038.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/socialist/final-battle-with-socialism/
watch the video

The recent Benchmarks in Gold & Silver produced a reaction high instead of a low. This is indicating that the metals are preparing to return to an uptrend. These will not converge again until March and then July of 2024 implying that that is where we may see highs form.
The most extreme projection for gold in 2024 is $6500. 

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-clarification/
Gold will NOT rally due to debt levels, QE, or any other BS scenario. Gold rallies due to CONFIDENCE collapsing. This is what we are dealing with the failure of central banks and the collapse in Keynesian Economics. This is why they are endorsing the Great Reset because CBs cannot raise interest rates and they have destroyed the bond market in Europe while wiping out their pension funds because they also decreed these funds MUST invest in government debt. They have destroyed the economy and that is why they are using COVID as a military tactic.
Therefore, what I am saying about gold is that it rises when CONFIDENCE collapses, not the rise and fall of QE and interest rates in the normal course of business. We must look to the general public. When they wake up and realize that there is no way this COVID nonsense will ever end because they are deliberately using it to seize the economy and transform it into this Great Reset where governments will no longer borrow money – just print. They intent to default on all public debt and replace even pensions with Guaranteed Basic Income. They are moving toward these end goals step by step so the people do not realize what is taking place.

 https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/the-failure-of-gold-in-the-midst-of-chaos/
..do you really think they will simply let gold provide some alternative currency to circumvent their dreams? I believe gold will end up as an underground BARTER type of currency and they may even terminate the ability to trade gold as they did prior to 1968 in London and 1975 in the USA. If they do that, we are probably looking at 2026. Until then, equities have been the alternative to government debt. The old ideas of money and the ability of gold to provide a hedge against this sort of tyranny would only exist in the black market.

Of course, the goldbugs keep preaching how the stock market will turn to dust and only gold will rise. They have been preaching this mantra since 1971. They seem incapable of understanding that gold is NOT money, it is a private asset now which means it will align with other private assets which is the opposite of how gold performs under a gold standard. When gold is MONEY then as assets rise in value, the purchasing power of gold declines. Since gold is now an asset, it will rise with assets against the dollar. They still seem to think that gold is money and it will replace everything else. That is like thinking the world is still flat.
...the long-term prospects remain in play as gold will be the hedge against GOVERNMENT but keep in mind that governments are also hunting all wealth and that will make it hard for gold to become transportable

Some people seem to confuse INFLATION v REAL TERMS. I have warned that INFLATION has nothing to do with the Quantity of Money. It hinges entirely upon CONFIDENCE. That is what Biden has done - unsettled the foundation of CONFIDENCE. People are now witnessing that everything is rising in price so now they are beginning to see that it is cheaper to buy today than to wait for tomorrow.

The high in real estate in 2023 will most likely be the end of this inflationary surge in spending. It is also part of the flight from the cities. However, thereafter into 2032, we still see that real estate will decline IN REAL TERMS. THIS IS NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE POLITICAL INSTABILITY, do not confuse the difference between 2023 and 2032. Real Estate does not hold up in times of war. It also does not hold up in times of government authoritarianism. For years, I have listened to these elites preaching their theory that a single world government would end all wars. I got tired of arguing trying to explain that cultural differences were also a cause of conflict which included religion. I was wrong to think that these people would ever listen and I underestimated what would happen once they were funded by the Billionaire Club.
This inflationary surge will most likely come to an end by 2023 and that may be linked to the Panic Cycle we see in politics for 2022. But as far as REAL VALUE, real estate and collectibles are surging in REAL value right now and that will probably end by 2023

So far, real estate has followed the forecasts of Socrates rather nicely. There were back-to-back Directional Changes in 2020 and 2021 with the next target for a turning point being 2023. Up to now, mortgage rates are very low and capital is eager to invest in mortgages compared to government debt. It looks like the market will turn south in 2023. With Biden's insane budget of $6 trillion, he is blowing the entire debt market up and we will see mortgage rates eventually rise.
Once Moody's BBB Corporate Rate exceeds 4.05% on a monthly closing basis, then we will see a panic selling of bonds across the board and thus we will then have mortgage rates rising sharply
It appears that Biden has provided the straw that broke the back of deflation. Central banks have been engaging in Quantitative Easing since 2008 without success. This has been largely caused by the collapse in confidence in the future. When people fear the future, they save. Increasing the money supply does nothing until the people decide to spend it.
One of the factors that confirmed to me that we would be heading into progressive inflation long-term was the fact that this Residential Index elected a Yearly Bullish Reversal at the end of 2012. That confirmed the long-term trend had changed. However, urban condo and commercial properties were forming a divergence. I assumed that was being caused by the debt and rising taxes in cities. In that regard, I suppose I was only partially correct, for the rest has been the brain-dead response to COVID.
For example, locking people down and causing them to lose jobs has resulted in a sharp rise in violence. Not just mass shootings, but all sorts of conflicts from domestic disputes to outright feuds. Cities, such as Philadelphia and New York, have sections in which the police have totally lost control. It is debatable if they will ever be able to restore civility to these regions. While Fauci claims to ignore the Constitutional violations, his agenda in helping Gates and Schwab is more than simply preparing society for the Great Reset. He is furthering the collapse of urban civility and this trend is part of what is driving this index.
I would expect to see this escalate and if we make a new high on this index and close above last year’s high, single-family homes outside of urban centers will rise sharply into 2023.

Fuck me that is grim.

My main take aways from that is that the world my children will be trying to grow up inside will be a gnat's cock away from utter shite, and the chance of me having my own home for my family is now 0.

Hopefully, being a winner of the birth lottery and having natural residence in England may buy me some degree of protection. 

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10 hours ago, Viceroy said:

the financial capital of the world is moving to China

This is an issue I’ve had with Armstrong for some time- China are in serious trouble- the basics are not in place for this to happen- clean water, oil, gas, and usable agricultural land is just not available to China - without these basics I can’t see how it becomes the financial capital of the world. 

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7 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

This is an issue I’ve had with Armstrong for some time- China are in serious trouble- the basics are not in place for this to happen- clean water, oil, gas, and usable agricultural land is just not available to China - without these basics I can’t see how it becomes the financial capital of the world. 

Whilst this is undoubtedly true, if the West is fucked (and it is), what takes its place?

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1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Quick question for the metalheads on here:

Is There any serious disadvantage to buying gold/silver bars rather than coins? I'm looking at buying a largish amount and I'm thinking for the sake of practicality it'd be much easier with bars.

 

I hear some people say that coins are more saleable but it's hard to cut through the bias.

Main disadvantage of bars is they're easier to fill with base metal. In theory someone in China can mint say Krugs with a Tungsten core but it's much more effort than with a kilo bar. You may not discover this until you go to sell...

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30 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

Whilst this is undoubtedly true, if the West is fucked (and it is), what takes its place?

Does anything have to take its place. What took the place of the Roman Empire?

Barbarism and chaos are always an option.

 

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41 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

This is an issue I’ve had with Armstrong for some time- China are in serious trouble- the basics are not in place for this to happen- clean water, oil, gas, and usable agricultural land is just not available to China - without these basics I can’t see how it becomes the financial capital of the world. 

This issue with Armstrong is he is the biggest bullshitter out of all the bloggers, twitter people and is constantly wrong.

Chinas neighbour Kazakhstan has more than enough unused land to feed the Chinese. 

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1 minute ago, SpectrumFX said:

Does anything have to take its place. What took the place of the Roman Empire?

Barbarism and chaos are always an option.

 

Well that's a cheery thought!

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16 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

Well that's a cheery thought!

Always remember. No matter how bag things are they could always be worse.

xD

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New essay from Steve Kaplan ,he has started to buy telcos.Another interesting one he mentions that im going to start buying later today is Ultrapar (UGP) ,right up my street that one.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471899-nasty-mean-reversion?utm_campaign=RTA+Articles&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=RTA+Article+Smart

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11 hours ago, Viceroy said:
For those interested here are Armstrong's snippets - a mix of his private blog & public articles. Highlights are mine.
 
Written Feb 2019; 
'There is a serious risk that after 2032, this will be very much like the fall of Rome. Nonetheless, it is my personal hope that if we understand that risk, we can avert it and move to a new type of wave formation and learn from the past just once thereby advancing to the next level of understanding. At the lower threshold of risk lies that reality whereby at the very minimum we are looking at the collapse of centralized governments as took place in 1989 with communism. That will result in greater separatist movements and the breakup of national states as we know it today. The USA could break into four main regions. Britain would find it too splits and Scotland, as well as Wales and Ireland, revert back to their origins.
So what the computer is showing is the rise in civil unrest and the risk of war.
This is part of what the computer is forecasting – the collapse of governments as we have known. 
Furthermore, we are looking at the collapse of socialism the same as communism. Both were derived from Karl Marx. They are both unsustainable economically. The pension system is collapsing with many municipal governments having near or more people on retirement than working.'

'I repeat, there does not appear to be a major stock market correction on the immediate horizon. Major DOW JONES support lies at the 29000-31000 level. Our extreme projected resistance remains well above the market at 68,000. That appears to be the ultimate end game which is a factor of the rising inflation ahead. 
Please keep in mind that we DO NOT SEE a major long-term bear market on the horizon. That is reserved for the bond market. Otherwise, keep in mind that the amount of capital invested in bonds is typically 10x1 with respect to stock. This is why the Dow can eventually rise to 65,000 as money pours out of government debt for the European Central Bank is TRAPPED and cannot raise interest rates without committing financial suicide.'

'To get such a crash in the stock market this time requires capital controls or a complete collapse in government and the financial system. During the Great Depression, sovereign defaults began in Europe. This pushed the dollar higher but not the US share market. Note that the dollar rose in value during World War I, the 1931 Sovereign Debt Crisis, and again for World War II. During those waves of capital flows, the bulk of that capital always moved into government bonds. We are facing a collapse in public confidence in government. How will capital move this time around when capital is moving away from governments? Will we see it move into the private sector exclusively, or will there be a capital flight to China as it becomes the USA of the 1930s?'

'The safest currency still is the dollar, although there may be a correction into 2022 because these people behind the throne are going to try to manufacture a great depression. They are assuming that if they can manufacture a Great Depression, then the people will surrender all their rights as was the case in how FDR got through his New Deal. The greenback (DXY) must close ABOVE 74.50 at year-end to retain any upward momentum even short-term...
We should see a correction in early 2022, so cash will become king for now. They think by collapsing the world stock markets that paper money will be blamed and that will push the next leg of their agenda through - the elimination of paper money.  Be on guard, for their agenda is not going to be so easy as they think. We are dealing with some very evil people here.
We may yet see a correction in equities which will set the stage for a slingshot up thereafter.

The USA is 50 states and each is sovereign. That means that no president can order a nationwide decree to shut all businesses and lock the people down. You see in Europe that head of state can shut the entire country down. Thus, it can get a lot worse outside the USA which remains bullish on capital inflows.

The key weeks ahead will be November 22nd and December 6th
We are looking at a collapse in public confidence on a global scale. The markets are going to respond like NEVER before and all the old theories are out the window. So buckel-up. This will be a very interesting ride into 2022.  We are in the midst of a Monetary Crisis Cycle and that means that we should expect the OPPOSITE of the traditional patterns. Normally, a stock market crash results in a flight to quality which is government bonds. But when it is the government in crisis, the capital flees to the equities. This is why so many people are simply confused.

The dollar strength in the years ahead is from an international capital flow perspective so that is simply relative to other currencies and has NOTHING to do with its purchasing power. The second part of this enigma is the fact that the purchasing power of all currencies will decline. This is the reality as these countries abandon all fiscal responsibility.
Then we have the crisis in sovereign debt. Already, we see that Europe has destroyed its bond market. In that regard, capital from Europe has been moving to both US and China debt markets. This is a real crisis for it signals that Europe and Japan have wiped out their ability to fund their debts and this will contribute to the overall decline in the purchasing power of ALL currencies.
Then we have the move to eliminate paper money and move to the digital world because they are trying to tax everyone and stop the hoarding of cash. The US will do the same, but there will be a delay for the dollar is the reserve currency and 70% of paper dollars are outside the USA. This presents a much more difficult problem in canceling the currency.
Then add to this mess the rising problems of geopolitical tensions and the coming war. The lockdowns have increased the tensions among the populations around the world and they will want to blame someone. This is the seed of war. When we add the War Cycle into this mix, we will see the capital flows still toward the United States for it is impossible to actually invade with troops and tanks.
Then we have the shift in assets from Public to Private as well as the flight from urban to suburban.
Therefore, the confusion out there exists because we have these complex trends. The rise in the dollar after this initial retest of support is not in jeopardy long-term in the least. As with any trend, there are always counter-reactions. We face a serious rise in inflation so the dollar will decline in purchasing power, yet rise against world currencies as the economic conditions are in peril outside the USA thanks to negative interest rates and the collapse in debt markets.

It appears that the Panic Cycle we have in politics for 2022 will result in the Democrats losing control so the policies are then once again subject to change. However, the geopolitical risks are rising substantially and it looks like we will have World War III post-2024.
So for now, the dollar should be soft in 2021, then reverse again and during 2022, that is when the capital flows will head to the dollar-based assets. This will most likely be the push and spin that digital currency will be better than paper. We may see the end of paper money in many countries outside the USA in 2022.

Interestingly, 2015.75 was the start of the Big Bang, the sovereign debt crisis that will lead to the total collapse of governmental debt on a global scale 17.2 years from that turning point — 2032. Nevertheless, there remains the risk of a temporary high in 2021 followed by a two-year decline as politics becomes chaotic. Our Panic Cycles in 2022 and 2024 in politics have not appeared since the Great Depression. So everywhere we look, there is nothing but chaos and strange patterns in markets not seen in 100 years.
The alternative is a rally into 2023 if we get new highs beyond May, but that would warn of a potential decline into 2025

..major all-time highs unfold when everyone who has ever thought about buying has bought. We are not at that level and the only opportunity for that seems to be possible in 2022. Keep in mind that 2022 is also a Panic Cycle in politics. I would not even venture a guess what that means at this stage in the game.
 shortages have already led to rising prices and consumers are starting to realize that it may be cheaper to buy today because whatever it is will be more expensive tomorrow. That is the REAL stimulus to inflation – not the increase in money supply which has been exponential since the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis with no inflationary impact. As long as the consumer does not trust the future, then they hoard their cash. Inflation emerges ONLY when they see that it is no longer beneficial to hoard their cash. That is the psychology we are now entering

While our near-term target in the Dow Jones Industrials remains in the 36,000-37,000 range, we are still in a position to test the 40,000 number on a broader-term. What you must keep in mind are the capital flows. reflecting the international capital flows for foreign money always go for the blue-chips.

The DEMISE of the dollar is underway, but it will take time. It appears the dollar will lose that status by 2028 and it will be gone by 2036. What BigTech is doing right now with their insane censorship is in fact the overthrow of the United States and setting it in fact for the collapse that our Computer has been forecast post-2032.

'Our computer picked up a shift in capital flows which was the start of the REPO Crisis 2 weeks before in August 2019. It appears that Trump was set up for they were gaining authority to expand for influenza - not COVID. By November 2019, there were whispers that a virus was coming. By December, that is when Bill Gates began to dump stock. By January 2020, I knew people were being told a virus was coming from multiple sources.'

Question: I'm confused about the big picture. Schwab and company will lose, but Socrates' forecast of civil unrest, international war, and the breakup of the US doesn't seem like a win for us. Is the crash and burn inevitable regardless of what we do, and is that what is necessary to defeat Marxism?
Also, you said Schwab really only has until the end of next year to succeed. I think the ECM for the Private Wave shows Authoritarianism rising into 2028.65. How might that play out if Schwab doesn't succeed next year?
Answer: Schwab will not succeed in creating a docile world where we will all own nothing but be happy. That is separate from the crash & burn because he has accelerated the deficits as politicians think that they will be able to end borrowing and just print whatever they need. In addition, they have deliberately created this crisis in the supply chain. Add to that, these people are shutting down fossil fuels NOW, decades before any renewable energy could ever possibly replace them which is seriously down. Wind and solar provide such a minimal amount of power that they would never be able to heat homes no less service all-electric cars, and the internet.
He will fail in his communist dream, but he has accelerated the Crash & Burn. Governments only listened to him because Socialism is collapsing. The nonsense of you will own nothing but be happy is a cover for the Sovereign Debt Default. They are pretending to end all of your debt and usher in Guaranteed Basic Income to eliminate pensions they have bankrupted, for they can default on their national debts. Government NEVER does anything for the people - it is always about their self-interest.
So we will still Crash & Burn, the Western will collapse, and the financial capital of the world is moving to China. The computer forecasted this trend decades ago and that will not change. It is not that China is so fantastic, it is that Schwab, Soros, and Gates have combined thinking they will control the world, but their scheme is failing.
 
I understand how so many keep spinning the conspiracy theory that paints the central banks as the evil people behind the curtain. The central banks are taking orders from above because the government can no longer borrow to fund their annual spending. The proposal for digital currencies if you trace it came from the WEF via Lagarde at the IMF and then the ECB. This is a crisis of debt and the system is collapsing and they can no longer kick the can down the road.
Talk of the Fed taking direct deposits is ending the Primary Dealer network of banks who have been able to manipulate markets without prosecution because the Gov't needed them to sell their debt. That is coming to an end so the entire financial system is being turned upside down.
 
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/banking-crisis/have-central-banks-crossed-the-line-into-tyranny/
Now, the automated clearinghouse (ACH) system is changing to allow direct deposits from non-banks – i.e. Big Tech in repayment for censorship. On December 23, 2019, the Board approved modifications to the Federal Reserve Banks’ National Settlement Service and Fedwire Funds Service to support enhancements to the same-day ACH service preparing for digital currencies. On September 25, 2020, the Board amended the implementation date for certain modifications. They are preparing for a digital currency, but this means two things.
By this Fed expansion, they are planning for the long-term for the elimination of public debt, in which case there will no longer be primary dealer banks, and hence no need to bail out the banks when they blow up on trading, assuming they will still be allowed to trade in the future.
Once the Fed moves to create its own digital currency, it is no longer the independent entity it was once supposed to be. Welcome to the new 21st century of a hybrid central bank, end of primary dealers, and the elimination of government debt. All for your security, so you do not revolt when the government system collapses.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-economics-upcoming-events/world-economic-conference/the-authoritarian-rule-the-post-2032-hope/
Based upon reports from inside several governments, the IMF has been directing all central banks to terminate paper money by 2022 and move to digital currencies. The real motive here is to terminate the underground economy and to ensure that everyone is 100% taxed as they determine. This has been the driving force behind the shift toward tangible assets with real estate, collectibles, and equities rising. This has been capital trying to get off the grid.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/banking-crisis/bigtech-replacing-banks-2/
Back in 2020, I had information that BigTech was lining up and was promised that they would be handed online banking if they helped to remove Trump. BigTech was promised the power to overthrow the banks. Governments were also secretly allowing BitCoin to take hold to convince people digital currencies were better than paper. The powers that be want everyone in the banking system to end once and for all paper money.When government eliminates all paper money, the next step will be to seize all pensions and that will be replaced with Guaranteed Basic Income. In that manner, they will be able to default on all government debt and the Modern Monetary Theory will become reality by restraining our liberty if not entirely eliminating it.
This has been what I have been fighting against for these past years. I did the Solution Conference in 2015 because these were the very proposals I was arguing against behind the curtain between 2012 and 2015. The idea of allowing digital currencies surfaced during the 2007-2009 crisis. The bankers blew up the world again and the Fed had to bail out AIG. Bitcoin emerged in 2008 as a theory to circumvent the banks because they would routinely blow up the financial world and they expect to be bailed out because the government needed them to sell their debt. That is when they realized that the system had to change.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/draft/
The cycle cannot be altered. The very best we can hope for is to reduce the amplitude. My concern involves what comes AFTER this chaos post-2032. The danger of Marxism in any form, Socialist to Communist, is that these morons think they can have a better life. They end up creating a police state whereby they surrender all their rights to ensure the oppression of others, who they hate because they are told that they are the victims of the rich. I am against oppression and socialistic philosophy, for it leads only to one place.
The very first wave into this cycle saw the collapse of communism 1989.95, and 43 years later (half 86-year cycle), we will meet the collapse of Western socialism. There is no stopping this cycle. To survive, we need to understand the trend in order to step out of the way when it comes.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/is-socialism-dying/
It is dying because the social programs can no longer be funded from pensions to the size of government employment. Because this is dying, it also results in aggressive fighting back in the system to try to save it.
Unfortunately, we have the last twelve years left. Marxism never works. They have tried it so many times. It fails because they try desperately to change human nature. They constantly portray someone having more than they do as evil and unjust. We are all created equal in rights, but not in talents. Some people faint at the sight of blood and others can be doctors. Some are great athletes and others can’t run 20 yards. We should see the end of Marxism with the collapse of governments beginning in 2032 moving into 2037/2038.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/socialist/final-battle-with-socialism/
watch the video

The recent Benchmarks in Gold & Silver produced a reaction high instead of a low. This is indicating that the metals are preparing to return to an uptrend. These will not converge again until March and then July of 2024 implying that that is where we may see highs form.
The most extreme projection for gold in 2024 is $6500. 

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-clarification/
Gold will NOT rally due to debt levels, QE, or any other BS scenario. Gold rallies due to CONFIDENCE collapsing. This is what we are dealing with the failure of central banks and the collapse in Keynesian Economics. This is why they are endorsing the Great Reset because CBs cannot raise interest rates and they have destroyed the bond market in Europe while wiping out their pension funds because they also decreed these funds MUST invest in government debt. They have destroyed the economy and that is why they are using COVID as a military tactic.
Therefore, what I am saying about gold is that it rises when CONFIDENCE collapses, not the rise and fall of QE and interest rates in the normal course of business. We must look to the general public. When they wake up and realize that there is no way this COVID nonsense will ever end because they are deliberately using it to seize the economy and transform it into this Great Reset where governments will no longer borrow money – just print. They intent to default on all public debt and replace even pensions with Guaranteed Basic Income. They are moving toward these end goals step by step so the people do not realize what is taking place.

 https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/the-failure-of-gold-in-the-midst-of-chaos/
..do you really think they will simply let gold provide some alternative currency to circumvent their dreams? I believe gold will end up as an underground BARTER type of currency and they may even terminate the ability to trade gold as they did prior to 1968 in London and 1975 in the USA. If they do that, we are probably looking at 2026. Until then, equities have been the alternative to government debt. The old ideas of money and the ability of gold to provide a hedge against this sort of tyranny would only exist in the black market.

Of course, the goldbugs keep preaching how the stock market will turn to dust and only gold will rise. They have been preaching this mantra since 1971. They seem incapable of understanding that gold is NOT money, it is a private asset now which means it will align with other private assets which is the opposite of how gold performs under a gold standard. When gold is MONEY then as assets rise in value, the purchasing power of gold declines. Since gold is now an asset, it will rise with assets against the dollar. They still seem to think that gold is money and it will replace everything else. That is like thinking the world is still flat.
...the long-term prospects remain in play as gold will be the hedge against GOVERNMENT but keep in mind that governments are also hunting all wealth and that will make it hard for gold to become transportable

Some people seem to confuse INFLATION v REAL TERMS. I have warned that INFLATION has nothing to do with the Quantity of Money. It hinges entirely upon CONFIDENCE. That is what Biden has done - unsettled the foundation of CONFIDENCE. People are now witnessing that everything is rising in price so now they are beginning to see that it is cheaper to buy today than to wait for tomorrow.

The high in real estate in 2023 will most likely be the end of this inflationary surge in spending. It is also part of the flight from the cities. However, thereafter into 2032, we still see that real estate will decline IN REAL TERMS. THIS IS NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE POLITICAL INSTABILITY, do not confuse the difference between 2023 and 2032. Real Estate does not hold up in times of war. It also does not hold up in times of government authoritarianism. For years, I have listened to these elites preaching their theory that a single world government would end all wars. I got tired of arguing trying to explain that cultural differences were also a cause of conflict which included religion. I was wrong to think that these people would ever listen and I underestimated what would happen once they were funded by the Billionaire Club.
This inflationary surge will most likely come to an end by 2023 and that may be linked to the Panic Cycle we see in politics for 2022. But as far as REAL VALUE, real estate and collectibles are surging in REAL value right now and that will probably end by 2023

So far, real estate has followed the forecasts of Socrates rather nicely. There were back-to-back Directional Changes in 2020 and 2021 with the next target for a turning point being 2023. Up to now, mortgage rates are very low and capital is eager to invest in mortgages compared to government debt. It looks like the market will turn south in 2023. With Biden's insane budget of $6 trillion, he is blowing the entire debt market up and we will see mortgage rates eventually rise.
Once Moody's BBB Corporate Rate exceeds 4.05% on a monthly closing basis, then we will see a panic selling of bonds across the board and thus we will then have mortgage rates rising sharply
It appears that Biden has provided the straw that broke the back of deflation. Central banks have been engaging in Quantitative Easing since 2008 without success. This has been largely caused by the collapse in confidence in the future. When people fear the future, they save. Increasing the money supply does nothing until the people decide to spend it.
One of the factors that confirmed to me that we would be heading into progressive inflation long-term was the fact that this Residential Index elected a Yearly Bullish Reversal at the end of 2012. That confirmed the long-term trend had changed. However, urban condo and commercial properties were forming a divergence. I assumed that was being caused by the debt and rising taxes in cities. In that regard, I suppose I was only partially correct, for the rest has been the brain-dead response to COVID.
For example, locking people down and causing them to lose jobs has resulted in a sharp rise in violence. Not just mass shootings, but all sorts of conflicts from domestic disputes to outright feuds. Cities, such as Philadelphia and New York, have sections in which the police have totally lost control. It is debatable if they will ever be able to restore civility to these regions. While Fauci claims to ignore the Constitutional violations, his agenda in helping Gates and Schwab is more than simply preparing society for the Great Reset. He is furthering the collapse of urban civility and this trend is part of what is driving this index.
I would expect to see this escalate and if we make a new high on this index and close above last year’s high, single-family homes outside of urban centers will rise sharply into 2023.

Viceroy, thanks for doing that summary. I will read some of those links as I'd like to understand more of Armstrong's hypothesis. However, one big part of his thesis jumps out at me, I am maybe oversimplifying - but he says socialism will die after 2032... So does he expect authoritarianism to continue afterwards, maybe in the form of 'right wing'?  Or is he predicting total breakdown and world anarchy?... Which I guess would kind of fit with his other predictions of national structural breakups and then reforming of countries including the USA?

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10 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

Always remember. No matter how bag things are they could always be worse.

xD

Its the optimism that kills you

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

New essay from Steve Kaplan ,he has started to buy telcos.Another interesting one he mentions that im going to start buying later today is Ultrapar (UGP) ,right up my street that one.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471899-nasty-mean-reversion?utm_campaign=RTA+Articles&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=RTA+Article+Smart

Turkish ETF looks worth a few grand.

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Democorruptcy
22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

New essay from Steve Kaplan ,he has started to buy telcos.Another interesting one he mentions that im going to start buying later today is Ultrapar (UGP) ,right up my street that one.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471899-nasty-mean-reversion?utm_campaign=RTA+Articles&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=RTA+Article+Smart

Link to another article he was in:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/record-selling-by-insiders-is-setting-up-stocks-for-a-big-fall-says-contrarian-investor-11637238152?mod=home-page

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17 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Its the optimism that kills you

Turkish ETF looks worth a few grand.

Yep,but we cant buy them thanks to those crazy KIDD rules.Turkcell ADR a good way to buy the devaluation.

 

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

"Poland to cut taxes to soften inflation blow, says PM"

Poland will cut taxes on petrol, gas and electricity and provide cash payments to households in a programme worth up to 10 billion zlotys ($2.40 billion) designed to help Poles deal with high inflation, the prime minister said on Thursday.

...Meanwhile back at the UK ranch...DipShitDoris continues to screw the tax paying worked/ing middle class!:PissedOff:

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24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep,but we cant buy them thanks to those crazy KIDD rules.Turkcell ADR a good way to buy the devaluation.

 

I thought if it was a UCITS then we could

image.png.3054fb3accae758f99690170e1198cd3.png

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George is on fire!

If you don't want to watch it all, at least check out the lunatic Aussie politician he highlights at the 20:34 mark.

Spitting fury about how people should get vaccinations. Disgusting human. (Time stamped)

 

Edited by Mapper
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35 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep,but we cant buy them thanks to those crazy KIDD rules.Turkcell ADR a good way to buy the devaluation.

 

Just bought £2491.71

image.png.223fd354a8f0f844f15330d61b4df82b.png

Edited by Hancock
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2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Quick question for the metalheads on here:

Is There any serious disadvantage to buying gold/silver bars rather than coins? I'm looking at buying a largish amount and I'm thinking for the sake of practicality it'd be much easier with bars.

 

I hear some people say that coins are more saleable but it's hard to cut through the bias.

Physical gold I only own 1oz bullion coins and sovereigns. Highly liquid anywhere in the world.

For silver I hold a mix of one ounce coins, one ounce bars and ten ounce bars.

You get more silver per $ if you buy a ten ounce bar due to the costs of fabrication being higher on one ounce coins. They are all extremely liquid. I've avoided the larger bars because I believe you don't get much more silver per $ than a 10oz bar and they could obviously get very expensive if silver rocketed. A 10oz bar could be $2000 if silver hits $200 but it will still be affordable to many, a 100oz bar not so much.

 

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1 hour ago, Hancock said:

This issue with Armstrong is he is the biggest bullshitter out of all the bloggers, twitter people and is constantly wrong.

Chinas neighbour Kazakhstan has more than enough unused land to feed the Chinese. 

He seems to say in that article that inflation is not caused by increasing the money supply, least that's how I read it. That alone makes me think nothing else he says is worth reading.

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1 hour ago, Kilham said:

Main disadvantage of bars is they're easier to fill with base metal. In theory someone in China can mint say Krugs with a Tungsten core but it's much more effort than with a kilo bar. You may not discover this until you go to sell...

Just weigh it. Exactly 31.1 grams in a troy ounce. Can't believe if it's been hollowed out and filled with something else that it's going to weight exactly the same. Does Tungsten weight exactly the same as silver? Dunno.

Definitely less risky to buy smaller stuff though, far less likely to have been fucked with.

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15 minutes ago, Starsend said:

He seems to say in that article that inflation is not caused by increasing the money supply, least that's how I read it. That alone makes me think nothing else he says is worth reading.

I took it as highlighting the behavioural aspect of it all which most are ignoring.  Money printing to excess is the kindling, people's attitudes is the match.  There is a lot to inflation most commentators don't understand, including religious or politicised economists.

Edited by Harley
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2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Seems this topic is similar to being a Boglehead.

Boglehead = time in market always beats timing the market. Also favours holding broad indexes over sector or individualshare picking.

180 degree opposite to this thread thesis.

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