Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[wherebee]

2 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

 

Then factor in why is it the most leveraged countries in the world are the ones with the greatest covid problem , and the inverse regarding the poorest hows property prices in Australia ? sustainable ?

the papers have flipped here in the last two weeks to suddenly warning of a house price crash.....

[Long time lurking]

Just now, wherebee said:

the papers have flipped here in the last two weeks to suddenly warning of a house price crash.....

What would that do to the banks 

Follow the money ,,all of the money 100`s trillons like fuck is that all for jabbs PPE and furlough 

[Hunty]

46 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Oilies taking a tumble again today 

Buying opportunity. Truck backed up busy loading BP, BATS, IMB, VOD, Petrofac.

Whoever's selling cheers fellas.

[Majorpain]

51 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Oilies taking a tumble again today 

Pre-empting the work from home order this evening?  At least my commute is going to get quieter.

[jamtomorrow]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

UK on the other hand...

(Pantheonmacro.com)

Conclusion, furlough has been fairer and systemically safer than firing out indiscriminate stimmy cheques?

The overall averages per household are certainly different, but UK households are still sat on a good chunk:

UK - £187bn excess pandemic savings -> $9000 per household

US - call it $2.5tn excess savings -> $20,000 per household

[ThoughtCriminal]

This looks ominous.

[belfastchild]

11 hours ago, spygirl said:

The core of BTsnetwork is fibre. And has been since 21st century network changes.

The BT trunk has always been more complex geometric than point 2 point. Typically, theres a 2nd, 3rd, 4th route between A n B.

 

 

I used to design national fibre networks. Some of my friends still do.

Thats the reason (until @DurhamBorn s posts made me look at it again) I wouldnt invest in BT or any of the old legacy carriers. The new upstarts were just installing FTTC as part of the course whilst BT et al were still talking about ADSL.

The BT line to my house is an overhead line, the Virgin line is FTTC then coax to my house. With BT I would struggle to get 35Mb/s whereas Im typing this on 100 Mb/s for the same money (or less for the majority of my 20 odd years with cable suppliers). BT was always hampered with having to supply everyone with a phone line for a fixed price. New entrants were not.
The difference now is (as pointed out by DB) that the vast new fibre rollout is different to the sprawling legacy networks which were organic rather than designed from a top down national perspective. Also they have got the govt and with inflation the customers to pay for it.

You only have to look at Ireland as an example, the amount of fibre installed over the last decade or so has been phenomenal. Its not hyperbole to say its possibly more than ever is needed. I can build an entire telco network in Ireland in a short period of time leasing dark fibre. The main rings arent the problem, its the end connections but with newbuild estates etc thats all installed as a matter of course.

The working from home has put a lot of previous network design (from BTs perspective) into a cocked hat, although saying that the bandwidth requirements are changing as people move to smaller streaming devices needing smaller bandwidth (although multiplied by members of the family). That also carries income problems, companies wont be paying for large pipes to buildings people dont inhabit any more and you dont need the traffic managment concentrated in key cbd areas any more as its been dispersed (somewhat, still need server access) to residential areas (for no extra revenue, maybe less as companies downgrade and pass on the costs to their employees).

I remember a presentation in BT (who are massive landowners) about filling the old strowger exchange buildings with rows and rows of laserdisc players for movies, that you could dial up and play and pause and stop etc from your phone line. A lot of netflix etc are co-located in the nearest node to save bandwidth (why some suppliers supply it for free) on the main networks. Right idea, just wrong time and wrong technology. If it hadve been rolled out, it would have been obsolete by the time it went operational (or shortly after).
Just look at the eff up BT made of sport, I know some of the people involved and right from the start (as a nowtv sport user) I knew they were on a hiding to nothing. That could have killed them.

The US is worse (branding things 4g that were 3g elsewhere in the world etc because they couldnt/wouldnt upgrade). Other parts of the world with fibre networks were just installing latest end kit and telling people to go on and do what they want with it, in the US they try to milk as much as they can from the legacy stuff and patch things up/fob things off.
Thats why Id never invest in legacy US telcos, but as Ive mentioned before I worked with a lot of them too closely and am perhaps jaded by that. Lot of the '3rd world' carriers went straight to 3g/fibre etc so dont have the legacy hangups.

[HousePriceMania]

44 minutes ago, wherebee said:

the papers have flipped here in the last two weeks to suddenly warning of a house price crash.....

Have they ?  I dont read the papers. I only read dosbods.

[sleepwello'nights]

41 minutes ago, Hunty said:

Buying opportunity. Truck backed up busy loading BP, BATS, IMB, VOD, Petrofac.

Whoever's selling cheers fellas.

We're getting a fall in prices now as I started topping up my current year ISA a couple of weeks ago.

I did warn you.  

[HousePriceMania]

31 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

We're getting a fall in prices now as I started topping up my current year ISA a couple of weeks ago.

I did warn you.  

I bought loads of oil shares when the US inflation figures came in.

I'm more worried about having 100% of nothing that 50% of something right now.

[ThoughtCriminal]

What's that saying? If they raise rates we're toast. If they don't it's because we're already toast.

 

Madness.

[JMD]

10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The work of Armstrong that interests me is the really long term stuff.He's one of the few people I've read picking out themes from Roman and Greek times that have replicated over the centuries.

This differentitaties him from people like DH who have a more recent focus over the last one or two hundred years.

What always amazes me is how these patterns repreat with slight differences sometimes.

We have Fibonacci sequences in nature, so maybe there is also something to the economic cycle theories?                                                                                                                                                                                         If we had cycle theories published long back in the past, but that also forecast into our future, surely they would be a  powerful tool? Not only that, what if they also accurately predicted(?) recent market activity? The Brenner cycle, for example, did just this for the 1999 and 2019 market highs. It also seems to have done the same thing for other highs, etc, throughout the last century. Looking at its chart, is it maybe predicting the 'monetary collapse' in 2035!!                                                                                          What do others think? There are many cycle theories, but do other theories  predict things as accurately as the Brenner cycle theory appears to do? This is a genuine question from me, or am I being crazy? (please do read the link, you might be very surprised).                                                                                http://silvanfrank.com/prophets-of-wall-street/.                                                                                                  And some further analysis of Brenner cycle/Fibonacci sequence (bit creepy how the dates almost exactly correspond?)... https://iaminwallstreet.com/do-not-forget-the-benner-fibonacci-cycle/.                                                                                                                                                                  ....Of course none of this beats @DurhamBornexcellent cross cycle work, but even in our age of manipulated markets, cycle theory can still provide I think useful additional macro.

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, BadAlchemy said:

Inflation is everywhere and hurting ordinary people on low income. My wife's folks in Serbia (on low pensions before all this) now seeing prices going up in the shops...

https://tradingeconomics.com/serbia/inflation-cpi

"The annual inflation rate in Serbia climbed to 6.6 percent in October of 2021 from 5.7 percent the previous month and above market expectations of 5.95 percent. "

Mindful that I am here to fight inflation both at home and abroad. Family is family!

Portfolio has done great thanks to this thread and allocating more as opportunities arise...

Lots are drawn to the thread to multiply capital,but the aim of starting it was to simply offer a roadmap to what the cycle would bring and try to help people protect their saved labour.My no 1 aim was to try to produce a return that matched inflation and that number was 65% over the cycle.More is a bonus.The other side is to cut costs.In the supermarket the price of most food is shooting up,but if you can cook its still very cheap,veg for instance is still cheap and i can get 4 nights meals from one chicken etc.

My whole family has 3 year fixed energy deals with big companies,iv even bought up 4 years worth of vitamins,toiletries etc.One vice i have is using quality skincare/haircare etc and iv bought 3 years worth on Blackfriday 30% reductions down to prices il not see again i doubt.

During an inflation buying a quality pair of ladders and fixing your own gutters etc can save a fortune.Iv several neighbours with tiles/pointing out after the storm,mine stood up because i re pointed over summer myself.

I even buy my lager from Tesco timing around xmas and big sporting events as thats  when they reduce,£10 this week for 18 so il buy 10 months worth.

[BadAlchemy]

 

Dont worry, it's only 'transitory' 

[Democorruptcy]

1 minute ago, BadAlchemy said:

 

Dont worry, it's only 'transitory' 

Got to get those energy prices down, omicron doing it's job nicely so far.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FFb1XPzXIAEbFp2?format=jpg&name=small

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Hunty said:

Buying opportunity. Truck backed up busy loading BP, BATS, IMB, VOD, Petrofac.

Whoever's selling cheers fellas.

My partner says i get more frisky and better to live with whenever i can pick up a few BAT at £25.

[leonardratso]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My partner says i get more frisky and better to live with whenever i can pick up a few BAT at £25.

you're bats

[ThoughtCriminal]

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[Harley]

3 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

I've just set up new stop losses for all my UK shares to try and hang on to some profits since March 2020 as there's no good news coming with this Omnicron crap and I can see most shares heading back down to those levels before Xmas or before March 2022

It's times like this my educations pay off.....if I have the time to action.....busy on insulation atm.  Glad I sold down earlier though. 

[Bricormortis]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

I even buy my lager from Tesco timing around xmas and big sporting events as thats  when they reduce,£10 this week for 18 so il buy 10 months worth.

You'll have drunk it all by Febuary so dont forget to shop around for discount paracetamol.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

I've just set up new stop losses for all my UK shares to try and hang on to some profits since March 2020 as there's no good news coming with this Omnicron crap and I can see most shares heading back down to those levels before Xmas or before March 2022

True bears are a grind lower.  That's why they hurt.  Everyone's been rushing around until then and expect the momentum (snap back) to continue.  That's why it hurts so much.  A total change of scene, and we all now know how people are.  But I expect lots of volatility, even worse for people's mental health, except the traders!  I intend walking the dog more than even he would want!

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Hunty said:

Buying opportunity. Truck backed up busy loading BP, BATS, IMB, VOD, Petrofac.

Whoever's selling cheers fellas.

See ya back in the mess for tea and medals, although I'm taking a different route there!

[Harley]

45 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

I'm thinking of buying another lithium battery!

[Noallegiance]

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Lots are drawn to the thread to multiply capital,but the aim of starting it was to simply offer a roadmap to what the cycle would bring and try to help people protect their saved labour.My no 1 aim was to try to produce a return that matched inflation and that number was 65% over the cycle.More is a bonus.The other side is to cut costs.In the supermarket the price of most food is shooting up,but if you can cook its still very cheap,veg for instance is still cheap and i can get 4 nights meals from one chicken etc.

My whole family has 3 year fixed energy deals with big companies,iv even bought up 4 years worth of vitamins,toiletries etc.One vice i have is using quality skincare/haircare etc and iv bought 3 years worth on Blackfriday 30% reductions down to prices il not see again i doubt.

During an inflation buying a quality pair of ladders and fixing your own gutters etc can save a fortune.Iv several neighbours with tiles/pointing out after the storm,mine stood up because i re pointed over summer myself.

I even buy my lager from Tesco timing around xmas and big sporting events as thats  when they reduce,£10 this week for 18 so il buy 10 months worth.

 

YES, However doesn't come as CHEAP as me back yard... 5 minutes away!

 

 

BUMPER free harvest this year lol!

 

Any chance of ya naming those 3 year fixed energy deal big companies   -  as i could only get 1 year with avro energy, then it went bust now i'm with octopus energy but still paying to avro!