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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko
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7 hours ago, Starsend said:

Well if silver went to $200 then your bar would be well north of $30000. Not so easy to sell probably and you can't split it up into different tax years for CGT. You'd take a big tax hit when you sold.

My 'friend'(?!) thanks you for the info. Though apparently for CGT, selling and then immediately buying back, say for example half the weight in the same commodity, makes you liable in tax terms for only 50% of the sale. 

Edited by JMD
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The new Botswana variant of COVID is causing futures to crater and oil is likely to follow.  If you want to back up the truck on oilies, this next trading session could be a nice one.

If XOM goes back below 59, I'll get some more.

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4 hours ago, wherebee said:

The new Botswana variant of COVID is causing futures to crater and oil is likely to follow.  If you want to back up the truck on oilies, this next trading session could be a nice one.

If XOM goes back below 59, I'll get some more.

I am not going to rush in, I nearly posted yesterday to say I can imagine US is seeing a similar ramp up in Covid cases as EU but they are not obsessed with testing like EU is so it might be growing a bit in the background.

I didn't see it as a big threat but enough to worry markets for a while.

VIX has been rising last few days too.

With this new strain I can imagine a few weeks of unease.

 

Sold a few oilies yesterday but now wish I sold 5 times the amount (thought I had some time before my theory played out).

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11 minutes ago, planit said:

I am not going to rush in, I nearly posted yesterday to say I can imagine US is seeing a similar ramp up in Covid cases as EU but they are not obsessed with testing like EU is so it might be growing a bit in the background.

I didn't see it as a big threat but enough to worry markets for a while.

VIX has been rising last few days too.

With this new strain I can imagine a few weeks of unease.

 

Sold a few oilies yesterday but now wish I sold 5 times the amount (thought I had some time before my theory played out).

Indeed, I have two main theories on what is going to happen - this winter is as bad as I think, and everything craters as the truth about shit vaccines comes out in the US and UK.  Gold, BTC, and miners do best.  Oilies drop (not crater) and we pick up more for the future (slim chance of green energy/climate change being trusted if the COVID vaccine lie is exposed).  My bellweather is Moderna, as I have been saying for months.

Or... a little dip now, governments continue to shift the narrative to 'awful COVID, get yer BOOSTERS' and oilies continue to grow as the supply continues to decline.  

Another macro element might be China invading Taiwan in the spring (only time when you have zero chance of typhoons).  In that case, gold to the moon, oil to the moon, etc.

It's all on a knife edge!~

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https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-4-2021-11-26/

It is now evident that a consortium are using Coronavirus [and its fear] to manipulate the market for entrance/exit points...the sooner we just accept to live with this virus, the sooner their advantage would be lost, so don't expect Coronavirus to 'disappear from the radar' for a long time.

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Looks like some things might be on sale today....

The timing is convenient. Biden can't get cheaper oil by asking the Russians or OPEC, and the SPR release did feck all, this is probably a better way to go about it. Make people shit their pants with a new variant. 

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Ok, couldn't resist buying Some BP at 313p

 

I then had a hair-brained moment and added EasyJet, bit like a kid in a discount sweet-shop this morning :ph34r:

Edited by planit
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26 minutes ago, planit said:

Ok, couldn't resist buying Some BP at 313p

 

I then had a hair-brained moment and added EasyJet, bit like a kid in a discount sweet-shop this morning :ph34r:

Ha Ha I picked up EZJ as well for a quick in and out trade thinking there is a bit of an over reaction always at the open.

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From a thread on early genomics results -

"Finally S477N and Q498R, predicted in an experimental evolution paper to substantially increase ACE2 binding together with N501Y, but only seen in the wild separately or rarely. Seeing this full combination now (along with everything else) is grim"

The thread:

 

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5 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Looks like yet more panic over nothing. @Hancock is this the dip that you were waiting for?

The FT article was pretty scary in it's wording and imagery

image.png.d0c0586218bc36f589fc35c4931417e0.png

 

But this virus is accelerating from almost zero cases (and the previous variants are under control) so it's not very surprising that nearly all cases are the new variant

image.png.6afb1138e39c7af041259b9911cf9939.png

The worrying part is this variant seems to render the vaccines less effective so this could be a wave that sweeps everywhere. It is already in a few countries.

 

Stupid comment of the day:

image.png.61c380c040cb37ac0f5d4dbd8b265c07.png

How does she know we are ahead of the variant? Seems a good probability that someone infected from South Africa has travelled to UK (which must be one of the top destinations from SA)

 

As I said earlier, I am expecting a US increase too due to the vaccines wearing off so if there is a bit of a stock market recovery in the next couple of trading days I will be selling. Everyone was getting a bit over-confident in the markets.

 

 

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HousePriceMania
1 hour ago, planit said:

Ok, couldn't resist buying Some BP at 313p

 

I then had a hair-brained moment and added EasyJet, bit like a kid in a discount sweet-shop this morning :ph34r:

What's going on ?

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HousePriceMania

Oh, new covid variant.  FTSE down 3%

I wish I hadn't bought some BP at 365 now.  Some guard against inflation that.

Just when the bankers need to raise the IRs a new variant is found O.o

You could make this up.

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3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Oh, new covid variant.  FTSE down 3%

I wish I hadn't bought some BP at 365 now.  Some guard against inflation that.

Just when the bankers need to raise the IRs a new variant is found O.o

You could make this up.

Yep... scariants, lockdowns and "eating soybeans instead of turkey" are the the new anti inflation measures. Don't worry about BP at 3.65... rest of world will gobble up any surplus energy the West doesn't use while it beats itself up over the flu and then it will be even more expensive. 

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AlfredTheLittle
23 minutes ago, planit said:

The FT article was pretty scary in it's wording and imagery

image.png.d0c0586218bc36f589fc35c4931417e0.png

 

But this virus is accelerating from almost zero cases (and the previous variants are under control) so it's not very surprising that nearly all cases are the new variant

image.png.6afb1138e39c7af041259b9911cf9939.png

The worrying part is this variant seems to render the vaccines less effective so this could be a wave that sweeps everywhere. It is already in a few countries.

 

Stupid comment of the day:

image.png.61c380c040cb37ac0f5d4dbd8b265c07.png

How does she know we are ahead of the variant? Seems a good probability that someone infected from South Africa has travelled to UK (which must be one of the top destinations from SA)

 

As I said earlier, I am expecting a US increase too due to the vaccines wearing off so if there is a bit of a stock market recovery in the next couple of trading days I will be selling. Everyone was getting a bit over-confident in the markets.

 

 

If you think of the amount of news manipulation there has been over the last couple of years with covid, us election etc, a new strain is an easy panic to create and gives cover for failing vaccines, vaccine passport mandates, possibly lockdowns to choke off inflation etc. If I had cash I'd be being  that the new variant will quickly be forgotten, however I'm already fully invested and will hold on. It's good for the share buybacks at least.

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1 hour ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Looks like yet more panic over nothing. @Hancock is this the dip that you were waiting for?

I'm biding my time, its just the start of winter and i can see this "new killer vaccine" growing legs, all in the name of forcing more people to do as they're told and take the vaccine.

The USA hasn't played their hand yet, once they do their bit in tightening up their country things should get more interesting.

Edited by Hancock
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11 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

Just an update, in case anyone is interested.

I switched out all my telecoms shares for PM mining shares a couple of days ago:

 

146837650_Fantasyfunds.png.5598afb3863098279f5b7c862b1298ab.png

It won't last, but if I'm somehow number 1 in three weeks time, the £5k prize will make it a good Christmas! 

 

Good luck to you, maybe this is the time you are ....

image.png.47991d211d3675a4eda19774725e8fc1.png

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1 hour ago, planit said:

The FT article was pretty scary in it's wording and imagery

image.png.d0c0586218bc36f589fc35c4931417e0.png

 

But this virus is accelerating from almost zero cases (and the previous variants are under control) so it's not very surprising that nearly all cases are the new variant

image.png.6afb1138e39c7af041259b9911cf9939.png

The worrying part is this variant seems to render the vaccines less effective so this could be a wave that sweeps everywhere. It is already in a few countries.

 

Stupid comment of the day:

image.png.61c380c040cb37ac0f5d4dbd8b265c07.png

How does she know we are ahead of the variant? Seems a good probability that someone infected from South Africa has travelled to UK (which must be one of the top destinations from SA)

 

As I said earlier, I am expecting a US increase too due to the vaccines wearing off so if there is a bit of a stock market recovery in the next couple of trading days I will be selling. Everyone was getting a bit over-confident in the markets.

 

 

Yes, so much media manipulation. I wonder what the suicide rates will be as a result of all this end-of-days propaganda.                                                                                                                                                                                  But isn't the increase in communicability for each new variant expected - It's what virus mutations typically do isn't it? ...Ie over time virus's mutate so they can spread more easily and also become milder. However there is no mention - in any reporting I've seen or heard - of the potential health-harms, illness/death etc, of this variant. Funny that!

Edited by JMD
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10 hours ago, JMD said:

My 'friend'(?!) thanks you for the info. Though apparently for CGT, selling and then immediately buying back, say for example half the weight in the same commodity, makes you liable in tax terms for only 50% of the sale. 

I never knew that! I'm assuming that you have to buy back at exactly the same price so it's almost like a partial exchange really. Useful to know and I'll look into this further. 

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