Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

This omicron could be a nice set up? Oil down a lot and CB's have their excuse not to raise rates. Energy costs down and more negative real rates. What do you fancy in silver?

Good call that mate

[kibuc]

7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

This omicron could be a nice set up? Oil down a lot and CB's have their excuse not to raise rates. Energy costs down and more negative real rates. What do you fancy in silver?

Everything without "Great" or "Panther" in its name. But do not seek out recommendations from me, my 3 biggest positions are also the ones where I'm holding my biggest losses at the moment. Better to just buy SILJ

[Democorruptcy]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

Good call that mate

Omicron could also fit with Dave's more recent forecast of a 5% dip then crack up boom. If an initial media driven panic, was then followed by a 'nothing to see here it's just mild sniffles'. The case fatality rate has dropped for every variant of concern so far. WHO comment about it includes:

Quote

 

It is not yet clear whether Omicron is more transmissible....

It is not yet clear whether infection with Omicron causes more severe disease compared to infections with other variants, including Delta

https://www.who.int/news/item/28-11-2021-update-on-omicron

 

Alternatively it could be bad, markets could plunge and we are all going to die, so DYOR!

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Everything without "Great" or "Panther" in its name. But do not seek out recommendations from me, my 3 biggest positions are also the ones where I'm holding my biggest losses at the moment. Better to just buy SILJ

What are the 3 so we can cheer them on for you?

[Hunty]

14 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

This omicron could be a nice set up? Oil down a lot and CB's have their excuse not to raise rates. Energy costs down and more negative real rates. What do you fancy in silver?

Back when I was a lad they had this archaic tool called raising interest rates and also dropping them too should the need be.

Then came along this printing Machine malarky. When that ran it's course they came up with the yield curve controller.

Now we have the virus mutation machine. Each time us peasants think hey we've got ahead of their curve.

They will wheel out the mutant mutation machine.

Bosh, pow take that peasants. Down goes oil and what inflation.

They've even cornered the good old pm market with the old fashioned printing machine.

The lawyer utters a nonsucal mutter and the market curtsies.

What a charade.

[Noallegiance]

25 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

This omicron could be a nice set up? Oil down a lot and CB's have their excuse not to raise rates. Energy costs down and more negative real rates. What do you fancy in silver?

I'm at the stage of believing that every opportunity is going to be taken to blow up any reason possible to not do what we all know they can't, and to continue to do what we all know they will.

[Hunty]

15 minutes ago, kibuc said:

my 3 biggest positions are also the ones where I'm holding my biggest losses at the moment.

I have a huge position in Poly ~big% underwater. Just trading the channel until the tide turns which it will.

 

[Bricormortis]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Since the Ghislaine Maxwell trial started so far in November, the following have quit which could be coincidence or indicate the elites know things are about to go down

• The CEO of Barclays resigned
• The CEO of Twitter resigned
• The CEO of Walmart resigned
• The CEO of CNBC resigned

EDIT - I can't find the CNBS one now

I think SP posted a much longer list of 'sudden' resignations as a portent of doom sort of thing in about 2018.

[planit]

So basically they are cheating the system.

we  made the right investment decision thinking oil will go up in price but they now have the " virus mutation machine".

They control demand by stopping everyone driving or going anywhere. They have even managed to stop energy using industry like fertiliser and metal manufacturer.

It's for the good of the planet.

[wherebee]

52 minutes ago, planit said:

So basically they are cheating the system.

we  made the right investment decision thinking oil will go up in price but they now have the " virus mutation machine".

They control demand by stopping everyone driving or going anywhere. They have even managed to stop energy using industry like fertiliser and metal manufacturer.

It's for the good of the planet.

but it's still a negative feedback machine.  every time they stop the world, it delays exploration and development of new sources of energy, including oil and gas.

So then when they go back to 'on' setting, still less future supply.  So then they need to turn it to 'off' again quicker.

Rinse and repeat.

As others have said, the technocrats and politicians really don't plan long term, they lurch from short term goal to short term goal.

[RJT1979]

I watched the FOMC meeting thing today. The whole 2 hours. Everyone asking Powell and Yellen were treating them like little kids and asking why are you not raising rates. They acted like they agreed and had no answers to give why not and responded like a kid being told off. Market sold off on the back of this. I never seen anything like it. Its crazy that this is the USA monetary comittee. The markets must surely sell off now by 20pc at least. No more stimulus. Faster tapering. What's everyone think?

[Viceroy]

On 30/11/2021 at 01:00, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

Hmm...don't get this on gold, i bought my 1st physical gold in 2011 (at the time near the TOP what do ya expect with my timing!) then bought my final gold in 2017 as it started to go up again, so even today i'm in profit with 'em AND don't ever intend to sell other than for an emergency.

 

unless you bought gold at the peak last July can't see how you lost money?

 

 

 

@DurhamBornThe copper BT are sitting on is worth more than 40 billion alone, is that true?

 

 

Yip, i was very green back in 2012 and thought gold was taking a quick 'breather' before flying to the moon, so i jumped in. I was taken in by the bobble heads on tv like Max Keiser screaming buy gold and silver..only took nearly 8 years to get back to the same price, and even now it's not that much higher!  If Gold is supposed to keep pace with inflation it should be waaaaaay higher. Back then Armstrong warned not to touch it but i ignored him, regretted it and reluctantly started taking more notice of his writings. He did state US equities was the place to be and I have since thankfully watched my pension & DOW tracker rise 21,500 points.  Armstrong macro outlook is very clear that the DOW is going to 65,000+ by 2032, no 1929 event on the horizon for equities. Dave Hunter on the other hand iirc says after the next all time high there will be an 80% fall & bear market to last for decades about to happen..but his timing is always pushed further out..I know which way I'm betting.

[Axeman123]

"'At this point the economy is very strong and inflationary pressures are high, and it is therefore appropriate in my view to consider wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases which we actually announced at the November meeting perhaps a few months sooner,' Powell said, in reference to the Fed's bond-buying program."

Looks like accelerated taper regardless of omicron. Article also implies (but does not quote) Powell saying omicron is anticipated to be inflationary, and may bring forward interest rate rises! The mood music seems to have changed, all roads leading to tightening.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10259095/DOW-drops-500-points-Jerome-Powell-told-Senators-Omicron-people-working-home.html

[Hancock]

12 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

"'At this point the economy is very strong and inflationary pressures are high, and it is therefore appropriate in my view to consider wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases which we actually announced at the November meeting perhaps a few months sooner,' Powell said, in reference to the Fed's bond-buying program."

Looks like accelerated taper regardless of omicron. Article also implies (but does not quote) Powell saying omicron is anticipated to be inflationary, and may bring forward interest rate rises! The mood music seems to have changed, all roads leading to tightening.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10259095/DOW-drops-500-points-Jerome-Powell-told-Senators-Omicron-people-working-home.html

By coincidence some globalist American bint at the BOE said the exact same thing.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/30/omicron-fears-risk-new-inflation-spike-warns-bank-rate-setter/

Funny how a cold can trigger inflation, but no mention of printing money doing the same.

 

[Viceroy]

On 30/11/2021 at 00:07, JMD said:

For sure Armstrong says some very interesting things and it's important to be aware of this thesis, especially now that we are nearing the end-game/reset stage.                                                                                                                              Viceroy, do you still stay away from the  precious metal sector? If I recall correctly you are mostly/exclusively (as a store of value?) into BTC/crypto I think?

Armstrong's always been v bearish for crypto - he believes it's a Govt plant to get us used to their forthcoming implementation of CBDC's, otherwise Satoshi would raking in royalties and he hasn't come forward.. I have both physiical+miners PMs and more recently crypto which has performed the best out of everything mainly due to pure luck timing.  Armstrong says as early as next year CbDCs will become a reality in some places (I think he hints at the European countries ie Euro) so at some point non-Govt cryptos will not be allowed to compete and will be confiscated just like they did with Gold for a few decades. when to sell and not get greedy is the question?

Everyone here in NZ uses debit cards, I rarely see hard cash these days. Kiwis won't blink once we go to CBDCs

On a lighter note Jacinda got a wonderful greeting recently

 

 

[The Grey Man]

38 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

"'At this point the economy is very strong and inflationary pressures are high, and it is therefore appropriate in my view to consider wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases which we actually announced at the November meeting perhaps a few months sooner,' Powell said, in reference to the Fed's bond-buying program."

Looks like accelerated taper regardless of omicron. Article also implies (but does not quote) Powell saying omicron is anticipated to be inflationary, and may bring forward interest rate rises! The mood music seems to have changed, all roads leading to tightening.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10259095/DOW-drops-500-points-Jerome-Powell-told-Senators-Omicron-people-working-home.html

With no evidence what so ever...April..possibly late March for interest rises.

An awful lot of deadlines in the news are falling in this time frame.

Tinfoil hat mode.

 

[HousePriceMania]

5 minutes ago, The Grey Man said:

 

Tinfoil hat mode.

 

Only if you can still afford tinfoil.

[The Grey Man]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Only if you can still afford tinfoil.

I think I have a years stock on everything.

Mind, I hate to use those reserves.

 

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

This is amazing....BT might be sold...bought by Americans with magicked up cash

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/nov/29/bt-on-war-footing-as-it-tries-to-guess-biggest-investors-intentions-patrick-drahi-take-over-telecoms

Looking at the size of my holding i could be the swing investor and i can tell the Yanks their dollars arent doing it,talk silver il listen 

[Long time lurking]

7 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I'd say most people know it is as good as over. Likely real life will adjust, and media etc will trail behind.

And that is the problem they need to keep it going hence omricon

[ThoughtCriminal]

@Cattle Prod

 

I THINK you've said that Capex is well down, but he's claiming that's all bollocks.

 

Can you clear up my confusion??

[marceau]

23 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I THINK you've said that Capex is well down, but he's claiming that's all bollocks.

 

Can you clear up my confusion??

The index he linked is a survey of intentions. Company balance sheets tell the real story.

[ThoughtCriminal]

4 minutes ago, marceau said:

The index he linked is a survey of intentions. Company balance sheets tell the real story.

Ahhh, so there's no correlation with actual investment? 👍

[marceau]

10 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Ahhh, so there's no correlation with actual investment? 👍

There is correlation to changes in expenditure, but a simple record of Capex for any given company/group of companies would provide more relevant information. AFAIK most are far below where they were 10 years ago, even in nominal terms.

[CannonFodder]

Good points of marceau, just to add intentions now would be to increase next years budget, lot can change between now and then.

In fact that survey may be based on answers submitted a month ago when oil 80 dollars a barrel meaning a lot already changed.