Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[nirvana]

2 hours ago, Sue Lowe said:

I don't know whether you write in jest or not but this is exactly what it is. How can this be legal?

fekkin clown world innit, middle aged white blokes just get tea bagged nowadays, glad I didn't have any sons.....

disclaimer: mad middle aged skinny loon, I'll be out for some fresh air now on my bike and 'fight' some fat middle aged bitch in an overpriced SUV  Must be having a thing about clown world today lol

 

 

[AWW]

12 hours ago, Hancock said:

Lets hope BT gets sold, fuck em sooner its sold off than having to read this shit.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/01/bt-sets-target-quarter-staff-non-white/

How is that actually implemented? If you're hiring, and you have a choice of a competent white person or a stupid not-white person, you have to hire the latter? What hiring manager would actually do that? Or does the HR department simply throw away CVs with white-sounding names so that hiring managers never see them?

Whatever they do, it's stupid.

[Plan-b]

Positive discrimination

Treating one person more favourably than another because they have a protected characteristic. It is generally prohibited under the Equality Act 2010, unless an occupational requirement applies. Positive discrimination because of a person's disability is allowed, and may sometimes be required if there is a duty to make reasonable adjustments.

For more information on lawful positive action, see Practice note, Discrimination in employment: exceptions (EqA 2010): Positive action.

[planit]

10 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Interesting...if you ignore the pre covid production ramp up and post covid rampdiwn, both artificial, OPEC is back on its 2018-2020 trajectory. Not sure how much further they can push this. I have no idea where they are getting a 2/3/4mbpd surplus in Q1 next year from.

They added in all the reserve draw downs for one thing.

But when I analysed the actual figures they were clearly made up for political reasons. I can't remember the exact figures but it was something like non-OPEC production would have to increase by 3mmbpd by February (with flat demand) which is clearly bullshit unless they had a crystal ball with Omicron in it.

The best predictor I have seen today (Reuters) is that they will split the difference and increase 200kbpd in Jan. That doesn't exactly explain all the rhetoric coming out over the last 2 weeks from OPEC. If it was me I would want to absorb the extra oil from SPR drawdowns and halting the 400k Jan increase would do that whilst pointing out who is in charge.

 

It also seems best to err on the side of caution, if there are more travel curbs due to Omicron and an oil surplus then the price could fall back to $40 and undo all the hard graft getting it back up to where it is. Oil price is really low when you add in inflation (and oil producers have had real inflation in their expenses for the last 10 years).

 

 

[harp]

2 hours ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

I think the seer of Durham also recently mentioned that it might be time to get into some of the big finance firms like ABRDN.... and right on queue they've announced they're taking over interactive investor.

Hasn't made much positive impact on the share price today, but another example of the consolidation that's oft mentioned here.

Dropped a fair bit on the news 

[HousePriceMania]

Is anyone selling up this week ?

Just logged into  my share dealing account and it's down about 10% in 2 weeks 

Was probably more last week before the oil companies jumped up.

 

 

[janch]

1 hour ago, Plan-b said:

Positive discrimination

Treating one person more favourably than another because they have a protected characteristic. It is generally prohibited under the Equality Act 2010, unless an occupational requirement applies. Positive discrimination because of a person's disability is allowed, and may sometimes be required if there is a duty to make reasonable adjustments.

For more information on lawful positive action, see Practice note, Discrimination in employment: exceptions (EqA 2010): Positive action.

Try getting a job in Wales as a white English middle class person.  Mostly you have to be able to speak Welsh.

As far as the law goes being Welsh is not a "protected characteristic".  It's impossible to prove discrimination in this case.

[harp]

13 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is anyone selling up this week ?

Just logged into  my share dealing account and it's down about 10% in 2 weeks 

Was probably more last week before the oil companies jumped up.

 

 

Nope. Looking to buy though. Falling knife zone still. 

[janch]

19 hours ago, Hancock said:

Selling half my holding of Drax at 400p was a school boy error. (had doubled my money)

I sold mine too after a run and want to buy them back.  I'm annoyed with myself for selling them, RMG and GSK.  It would have been better to have top-sliced them all.

I bought some GSK today as they have apparently got a new covid drug:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-government-regulators-orders-gsk-omicron-covid-treatment-082315533.html

I would also have bought some RMG as they have a special divi coming up but today is the ex-divi date so I was too late and I only want to buy anything on "down" days so yesterday was no good.

[geordie_lurch]

31 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is anyone selling up this week ?

Just logged into  my share dealing account and it's down about 10% in 2 weeks 

Was probably more last week before the oil companies jumped up.

I set some auto stop losses to bank some profits recently that would be an effective auto top slice and only one of these has triggered so far but I think all will go before long. DYOR etc

[Harley]

40 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is anyone selling up this week ?

Just logged into  my share dealing account and it's down about 10% in 2 weeks 

Was probably more last week before the oil companies jumped up.

 

 

I've been selling stuff down for a while now.  A few buys but they were stupid.  Most buy signals have been false ones and I should have known better.  But I was tweaking my system (should have tested more first).  My final revision incorporates more prudence and getting back to my core investing objectives of capital preservation and income.  The vast majority of equity charts still look bearish to me.  But it's been going on for a few weeks, just more noticeable now.  TBH a bit late in the day for me to start selling down but.......Overall good to see as I needed churn to build bigger positions.  I can see a buying time approaching for equities and crypto but not yet.  Some PMs and bonds look ok atm but not huge conviction. 

PS:  Busy with a number of jobs.  One is insulation using board and wood I stockpiled in Feb20.  I dread to think of the current cost.  These materials were a good alternative investment.

[nirvana]

OIL has broken down again.....next stop for me is 60.66 - WTI

Nasdaq has just spiked up 100 pips lol

PS 64.90 is a dogfight now, bulls need to retake the high ground....

[Harley]

I have my battery ups system running and am intrigued by the number of short grid failures I'm getting reported.  Mostly very short duration but it does show how unstable things are out here.  It might also explain why I've lost a few routers, etc over time (brownouts, surges, etc).  My ups helps condition the flow so that's an added benefit.  

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

I think the seer of Durham also recently mentioned that it might be time to get into some of the big finance firms like ABRDN.... and right on queue they've announced they're taking over interactive investor.

Hasn't made much positive impact on the share price today, but another example of the consolidation that's oft mentioned here.

Yep and i have been buying Abrdn today,i actually sold a decent sized holding at 2.95 a few months ago.This sector will consolidate and there will be massive amounts of capital coming out of housing needs investing over the cycle.

The market likely thinks they overpaid given the price,but i think it would of been higher on an IPO and Abrdn is a very good fit with II.They had the cash sat on the balance sheet,its not debt funded and they still have a lot of shares in an Indian business.

I think this is a good move from Abrdn and should produce good earnings in the longer term.I think M&G or Aviva might be looking at AJ Bell,or a friendly merger between Abrdn and M&G isnt out of the question.

 

 

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

I have my battery ups system running and am intrigued by the number of short grid failures I'm getting reported.  Mostly very short duration but it does show how unstable things are out here.  It might also explain why I've lost a few routers, etc over time (brownouts, surges, etc).  My ups helps condition the flow so that's an added benefit.  

I'm fannying about with some batteries again......never lost a French router to a powercut, I hacked a BT one and it was sh!te, lost me over 20mbps download....anyway fibre is coming soon, to the woods!! Hilarious

How many kw have you got with your batteries? I'm not in a competition, I don't need much, just interested in what folks are 'prepping for'

Cheers and up the self-sufficient massive! lol

[Lightscribe]

3 hours ago, nirvana said:

that article is fukkin ace and sums everything up beautifully! Thatcherites and boomers take note lmao!

Yup it certainly does. Put together intelligently and articulately, explains what I’ve been trying to since the very beginning better than I could. I shall forward it on accordingly.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, harp said:

Dropped a fair bit on the news 

Some odd technical things have been going on with that chart for a few weeks now.  I've been wondering what's been going on ever since @DurhamBorn mentioned the possible acquisition.

[DoINeedOne]

Just a heads up received a letter to me mums as thats the address i have down with HL about updating W-8BEN as it was due to expire at the end of December

Just incase many of you, like me use there app which didn't mention this to me 

log into the website

Go to account settings >>> Share dealing and live prices 

and there you should see your expiry date

 

[Harley]

27 minutes ago, nirvana said:

I'm fannying about with some batteries again......never lost a French router to a powercut, I hacked a BT one and it was sh!te, lost me over 20mbps download....anyway fibre is coming soon, to the woods!! Hilarious

How many kw have you got with your batteries? I'm not in a competition, I don't need much, just interested in what folks are 'prepping for'

Cheers and up the self-sufficient massive! lol

7kWh.  I'll probably go to 10+.  I missed the local smart meter install so will have to wait but fancy a multi tariff so I can arb the rates (charge when cheap then release).  I also have a few panels and a gennie (connection tbd).

PS:  I hacked an old BT router to become a wired access point.  Works well (good range).  May do a few more!

[harp]

7 minutes ago, Harley said:

Some odd technical things have been going on with that chart for a few weeks now.  I've been wondering what's been going on ever since @DurhamBorn mentioned the possible acquisition.

That’s good enough for me! Just bought a couple of k’s worth as a first ladder. 

[belfastchild]

7 minutes ago, nirvana said:

How many kw have you got with your batteries? I'm not in a competition, I don't need much, just interested in what folks are 'prepping for'

Cheers and up the self-sufficient massive! lol

Whats your usage?
I use on average 6kwh per day in normal use. So battery is 9.6.
6Kw panels and best I can get this time of year is 3kwh output. Use almost all of that in ambient. December is about 55kwh total usually.

Can cut that usage by half if needs be, even less to just run fridges/freezers and heating system.

Battery currently set to 90% charge limit in normal use, 20% in UPS. (i.e. dont drop below 90% unless power goes off). Havent got the extra 10% in a couple of weeks now.
 

[Harley]

1 minute ago, harp said:

That’s good enough for me! Just bought a couple of k’s worth as a first ladder. 

I hold some and am waiting a bit longer to add.  I love the yield!  There was an attempted break out from oversold on the weekly in early November but it failed.   

[DurhamBorn]

12 minutes ago, Harley said:

Some odd technical things have been going on with that chart for a few weeks now.  I've been wondering what's been going on ever since @DurhamBorn mentioned the possible acquisition.

Whole sector,M&G ,Jupiter etc all sold off.I think this is a decent buy for Abrdn.Its a full price,but i think in a less volatile market they could of IPOed at £2 bill .Usually id prefer special divs or buybacks for cash on the balance sheet,but on this i think it was a decent move,interesting to see if the UK can build a few really big players and not get taken out by big Yank players.

I think M&G add more to equity than any other company in the FTSE last time i screened.

[nirvana]

13 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Whats your usage?
I use on average 6kwh per day in normal use. So battery is 9.6.
6Kw panels and best I can get this time of year is 3kwh output. Use almost all of that in ambient. December is about 55kwh total usually.

I think I'm down to 3kwh/day.....I should just get some panels installed and cut myself off lol

how many batteries do you have for 9.6kwh? And how do you set the 90% charge limit?

cheers

soz, macro enthusiasts going a bit off-road but you know it's worth the journey lol

[Lightscribe]

12 minutes ago, Harley said:

I have my battery ups system running and am intrigued by the number of short grid failures I'm getting reported.  Mostly very short duration but it does show how unstable things are out here.  It might also explain why I've lost a few routers, etc over time (brownouts, surges, etc).  My ups helps condition the flow so that's an added benefit.  

Yup UPS or power bank to avoid surges.

I use one of these for our camping trips, good in an emergency back up.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/B08RNQ9P2R/ref=psdcmw_4370158031_t2_B08RNT5BDT

I also have one of these soldering, hot air and power supply stations.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/WEP-853D-Supply-Soldering-Rework-Station/dp/B07PPMLYR9

Mine is 5amp on the power supply, you won’t need to go above that for most electronic devices.

I also have one of these microscopes/LCD monitors

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Svbony-Microscope-Portable-Observing-Identification/dp/B08MTMTB9N/ref=mp_s_a_1_5?crid=QP3BA9RX60YA&keywords=microscope+lcd&qid=1638458523&sprefix=microscope+lcd%2Caps%2C212&sr=8-5

It’s the ideal time to brush up soldering skills if you don’t know how. Blown transistors, capacitors, chips can all be replaced. Practice on old boards etc. Steady hand and coordination all comes with practice.