Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

22 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Yup UPS or power bank to avoid surges.

I use one of these for our camping trips, good in an emergency back up.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/B08RNQ9P2R/ref=psdcmw_4370158031_t2_B08RNT5BDT

I also have one of these soldering, hot air and power supply stations.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/WEP-853D-Supply-Soldering-Rework-Station/dp/B07PPMLYR9

Mine is 5amp on the power supply, you won’t need to go above that for most electronic devices.

I also have one of these microscopes/LCD monitors

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Svbony-Microscope-Portable-Observing-Identification/dp/B08MTMTB9N/ref=mp_s_a_1_5?crid=QP3BA9RX60YA&keywords=microscope+lcd&qid=1638458523&sprefix=microscope+lcd%2Caps%2C212&sr=8-5

It’s the ideal time to brush up soldering skills if you don’t know how. Blown transistors, capacitors, chips can all be replaced. Practice on old boards etc. Steady hand and coordination all comes with practice.

  I started by looking at a Jackery, etc and suffered a bit of scope creep!  I really like the microscope.  I never knew they existed.  Very useful, and good value.  Cheers.

I mention this storage stuff here as I can see this becoming a popular area what with energy costs, smart meters, differential tariffs, grid issues, etc.  For me personally, it's an example of how I can invest depreciating or to-be-stolen fiat now to save money and/or just live better down the line.  Putting money outside of the burning building of a system.  At source!  A bit of faith on my side rather than any detailed financial analysis.  The components are going up in price atm with the supply shortages, etc so it was a bit stressy to get it all done.  But I feel great for having done something given my concerns about the future. 

[planit]

since everyone is doing an update

Messed up the oil today, didn't think they would raise but they did and adding OPEC news + @Cattle Prod together I get to the conclusion OPEC are trying to stop as much investment for next year as possible. The message is loud and clear "glut of supply next year, oil spouting from everywhere and prices really low". I doubt the whole industry is stupid though.

Anyway, I have sold USO Jan puts that are pretty under water but not a problem, they are still just out of the money and there is 1.5 months to expiry so will just hold on.

Apart from that I have sold most of the shares I bought on Friday, screwed up the sale of EZY and left with a few by mistake (put in a sell at 542 that got hit but typed in the wrong number of shares LOL)

Sold BP at 337, twice as many as I bought on Friday.

Added to PFC because I am stupid.

 

If we get another dip I will buy again.

 

My outlook is that we will get loads of news about rising Covid cases in the next 2-3 weeks, this will give buying opportunities. As I said before, I think the US was due another wave in any case which will now get merged into this current scare news cycle.

Omicron is probably not that bad but it is contagious enough to cause disruption and get everyone scared until after Christmas. Blow off top delayed again until Feb-Mar 2022.

 

Edit: I sold most of my PM miners after the recent spike and the rest on Monday to take up other shares I saw as better value. Hopefully I don't miss the boat when I want to buy back in.

[belfastchild]

26 minutes ago, nirvana said:

I think I'm down to 3kwh/day.....I should just get some panels installed and cut myself off lol

how many batteries do you have for 9.6kwh? And how do you set the 90% charge limit?

cheers

soz, macro enthusiasts going a bit off-road but you know it's worth the journey lol

Ever have Deja Vu? ;-)

 

 

[Harley]

28 minutes ago, planit said:

Added to PFC because I am stupid.

Welcome to the club!  I've been in it a long time!

28 minutes ago, planit said:

I sold most of my PM miners after the recent spike and the rest on Monday to take up other shares I saw as better value.

With hindsight, I just got a slap of a reminder to average in.  I bought full sized lots and am down atm.  But at least I have the divs.  I'm being a bit more cautious in GDX though.

28 minutes ago, planit said:

Anyway, I have sold USO Jan puts that are pretty under water but not a problem, they are still just out of the money and there is 1.5 months to expiry so will just hold on.

I'm expecting the equity to pull back bar an event at which point I'll load up (I haven't sold down any holdings).  Options: direction and timing, but that's why they pay the big bucks!

28 minutes ago, planit said:

My outlook is that we will get loads of news about rising Covid cases in the next 2-3 weeks, this will give buying opportunities. As I said before, I think the US was due another wave in any case which will now get merged into this current scare news cycle.

I'm still expecting the covid inspired rush to regulation, control, and general nastiness to bleed even more into the financial arena and have been meaning to take time out for some big picture thinking.  I'm more concerned about that than market moves.

28 minutes ago, planit said:

Messed up the oil today, didn't think they would....

I just stick to the charts these days! 

[DoINeedOne]

Bought some more miners expect them to crash even more. Sorry Guys....

 

 

 

[Harley]

18 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Ever have Deja Vu? ;-)

 

 

Currently out of stock there and several other places.  As I was saying.....!  Although, there was a recent shipment to the wholesaler of the new models.

PS:  US3000c offers better cost per watt, although a bit heavy!

[Harley]

4 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Bought some more miners expect them to crash even more. Sorry Guys....

 

 

 

IMO at least the ones I like are not long term overbought atm, which is quite something in this market.  So not necessarily a shabby risk/reward play with some good yields to keep you entertained for now.  DYOR!

[BadAlchemy]

6 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Bought some more miners expect them to crash even more. Sorry Guys....

 

 

 

I bought some PAAS and AG yesterday as they had slipped couple of percent. They then slipped a further 5% each.  

Falling knives and all that but I think it will all come good one day....

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, BadAlchemy said:

I bought some PAAS and AG yesterday as they had slipped couple of percent. They then slipped a further 5% each.  

Falling knives and all that but I think it will all come good one day....

I nearly snapped some Yamada today as it came up on a screen but it's still a bit flakey technically wise out there atm.  I liked the yield but haven't yet checked the fundamentals.  Maybe things will clear up in a few days.  Overall, looks like room for more volatility in the sector in the short to intermediate term but many monthly charts still look promising (typically basing in the oversold area to get the moving averages (MACDs) down). 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Anyone here from Oxford?

 

Is this a fucking joke?

[Innkeeper]

52 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Anyone here from Oxford?

 

Is this a fucking joke?

If you have a spare few hundred grand (and many many people have that and more) then it will lose money in a bank (earning no interest) very quickly unless you do something with it. 

In the past, that money would be on deposit at the bank providing some extra income from the interest (if you’re retired) or capital appreciation.

Those options have gone.  

And people keep being told they will NEVER return.

So what to do?  Property of course as most people ‘don’t understand’ stock markets or pensions. And it doesn’t even matter any more that it might not be a one way bet that property prices keep rising because there’s a tenant paying you that money every month that the bank used to pay you if the money was on deposit.  So you don’t have a choice if you’ve got money - it’s got to go somewhere, in fact anywhere but the bank.

So if it’s a burnt out hovel in Oxford then it’s still better than Barclays...

And crypto 

 

[Boon]

54 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Anyone here from Oxford?

 

Is this a fucking joke?

No, but pretty sure there are similar examples on this in every area.

Average income in Oxford must be more than average, although its academic as you couldn't borrow on that.

More pertinently, assuming it costs £100k to do up then it may rent for £1k a month and two people on an ordinary income could afford it, and Homes under the Hammer regulars will tell you that's a 4% yield and better than the bank account. 

The thought of earning the same through a dividend (and also have the prospect of capital appreciation) isn't gonna appeal to these people.

That is why there are buyers for these sort of things, at those sort of prices.

[BadAlchemy]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I nearly snapped some Yamada today as it came up on a screen but it's still a bit flakey technically wise out there atm.  I liked the yield but haven't yet checked the fundamentals.  Maybe things will clear up in a few days.  Overall, looks like room for more volatility in the sector in the short to intermediate term but many monthly charts still look promising (typically basing in the oversold area to get the moving averages (MACDs) down). 

And I even checked the MACD and stochastic (thanks for your detailed explanations of those measures several months ago, by the way) before buying them and they told me I should probably wait a bit longer, but the volatility got to me and I needed more exposure to silver miners and everyone on fintwit is saying how cheap silver is and... and ... and I'll get my coat !

Must try to be more disciplined in this uncertain time and only shoot when I see the whites of their eyes!

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Boon said:

No, but pretty sure there are similar examples on this in every area.

Average income in Oxford must be more than average, although its academic as you couldn't borrow on that.

More pertinently, assuming it costs £100k to do up then it may rent for £1k a month and two people on an ordinary income could afford it, and Homes under the Hammer regulars will tell you that's a 4% yield and better than the bank account. 

The thought of earning the same through a dividend (and also have the prospect of capital appreciation) isn't gonna appeal to these people.

That is why there are buyers for these sort of things, at those sort of prices.

My take. I don’t fully understand shares in-depth myself. I do have a dabbled,  but would not go within a mile of that property. £100k to refurb and end up with god knows next door. Probably nice people to be fare. 

[Axeman123]

The market sell-off seems not to be working (to force fed capitulation on taper)...do "they" double down on the selling or give up?

[DurhamBorn]

The job i was offered last week,here is the reason,

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/02/teesside-covid-jab-factory-gets-400m-boost/

In the end i told them i only worked for the tax allowance now and then leave as no point working for more in the UK due to tax and NI.I also told them that due to the Inheritance tax freeze and the Pension lifetime allowance i couldnt even save into my pension from the wages so my free time was worth far more than the after tax wage.

Funny enough i got a call from another Pharma in Fawdon today wanting technicians and last week for one back at GSK.

Just the start of the massive amount of jobs coming here to the north east.

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The job i was offered last week,here is the reason,

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/02/teesside-covid-jab-factory-gets-400m-boost/

In the end i told them i only worked for the tax allowance now and then leave as no point working for more in the UK due to tax and NI.I also told them that due to the Inheritance tax freeze and the Pension lifetime allowance i couldnt even save into my pension from the wages so my free time was worth far more than the after tax wage.

Funny enough i got a call from another Pharma in Fawdon today wanting technicians and last week for one back at GSK.

Just the start of the massive amount of jobs coming here to the north east.

them bleddy macams, they turk arr jabs, an ar wimmin!

[Chewing Grass]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The job i was offered last week,here is the reason,

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/02/teesside-covid-jab-factory-gets-400m-boost/

In the end i told them i only worked for the tax allowance now and then leave as no point working for more in the UK due to tax and NI.I also told them that due to the Inheritance tax freeze and the Pension lifetime allowance i couldnt even save into my pension from the wages so my free time was worth far more than the after tax wage.

Funny enough i got a call from another Pharma in Fawdon today wanting technicians and last week for one back at GSK.

Just the start of the massive amount of jobs coming here to the north east.

Massive job at a 'secret factory' in Preston breaking out with more work than workers, they have a salary cap in 'the contract' so can't recruit skilled people and are losing the younger ones they have and all the older ones desperately want to retire so they are not 'worked to death' by bullshit.

[ThoughtCriminal]

28 minutes ago, Boon said:

No, but pretty sure there are similar examples on this in every area.

Average income in Oxford must be more than average, although its academic as you couldn't borrow on that.

More pertinently, assuming it costs £100k to do up then it may rent for £1k a month and two people on an ordinary income could afford it, and Homes under the Hammer regulars will tell you that's a 4% yield and better than the bank account. 

The thought of earning the same through a dividend (and also have the prospect of capital appreciation) isn't gonna appeal to these people.

That is why there are buyers for these sort of things, at those sort of prices.

All that hassle for 4% yield.

 

It was too much bullshit for me at 10% 

[Bobthebuilder]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The job i was offered last week,here is the reason,

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/02/teesside-covid-jab-factory-gets-400m-boost/

In the end i told them i only worked for the tax allowance now and then leave as no point working for more in the UK due to tax and NI.I also told them that due to the Inheritance tax freeze and the Pension lifetime allowance i couldnt even save into my pension from the wages so my free time was worth far more than the after tax wage.

Funny enough i got a call from another Pharma in Fawdon today wanting technicians and last week for one back at GSK.

Just the start of the massive amount of jobs coming here to the north east.

I went to Trillians in Newcastle upon Tyne one Sunday evening in the early 1990s. It was pretty quiet except for a group of lads having a right old celebration, I wandered over and asked whose birthday it was. They pointed one of the lads out, who had just got a job in the new Nissan factory.

Now me being a southern soft shandy drinker didn't even realize jobs meant that much to the working class of the North East, but he was proper made up, been in a bit of financial difficulty, mortgage etc.

So, I bought him a pint and, as a bonus, the barmaid took me home at the end of the night.

Result.

[leonardratso]

barman

[sancho panza]

On 29/11/2021 at 16:58, JMD said:

Jim Chanos, legendary short seller who made fortune shorting Enron. Worth listening to all 50mins (it's a two parter with 2nd part subscription only)... This part discusses mechanics of short selling, but is also instructive and entertaining - showing how dire the regulators are, Chanos says that most company accounting fraud is more 'Ponzi scheme' than outright stealing, he comments on Uber and that Tesla is a 30dollar stock if priced similar to its competitors!!                                                                                                                                https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=onXHpmOzZZk

Jim also lost a fortune shorting Tesla with me back in 2018......Jim said at the time:

'surfing with Sancho,where could it go wrong?'

On 30/11/2021 at 10:46, planit said:

It is clear the antibodies you get from catching Covid are much better than the ones you get from the vaccines.

You clearly don't work in the Covid Health Service ........don't take any free train tickets anywhere.

[BadAlchemy]

Tweet of the day, and me right now...

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, BadAlchemy said:

And I even checked the MACD and stochastic (thanks for your detailed explanations of those measures several months ago, by the way) before buying them and they told me I should probably wait a bit longer, but the volatility got to me and I needed more exposure to silver miners and everyone on fintwit is saying how cheap silver is and... and ... and I'll get my coat !

Must try to be more disciplined in this uncertain time and only shoot when I see the whites of their eyes!

I do exactly the same!