Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Hancock]

29 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Brilliant, the day I bought some more PM miners!....am I the new @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker?

Clicked on that twitter link and got to this!

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

On 03/12/2021 at 17:59, JimmyTheBruce said:

On 03/12/2021 at 15:14, DurhamBorn said:

........

Nobody said a word about no mask,but some women did have that look in their eyes that you were some kind of sexy rebel while their wimps of husbands sat scared behind their masks.I used the till where the woman had no mask on and i commented on how i was glad she hadnt covered up her lovely face ,got one of those smiles,you know the ones,,still got it 

I'm increasingly of the view that Durham must be some sort of Shangri-la.  When I go to Morrisons everyone is either 25 stone or smells of wee.  If any of them smiled at me I'd make a break for the door, throwing my yellow ticket items behind me like chaff.

Yeah, or maybe @DurhamBorn a bit of a ..."Swiss Toni"

 

 

[MrXxxx]

5 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Yeah, or maybe @DurhamBorn a bit of a ..."Swiss Toni"

 

 

and Toni being an Italian name/spelling, does he seduce them with his 'small talk' of pizza ovens/dough mixtures? :-)

[macca]

On 04/12/2021 at 12:06, DurhamBorn said:

For anyone wanting a quality Wok without breaking the bank

https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00237VCC8/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o09_s00?ie=UTF8&th=1

 

Is it available from a non tax avoidance company.. I would rather pay double than shop with that cock rocket, anal wart, nob gobbling cunt!

I pay more fucking tax than he does, in 2017 and 2018 he paid ZERO TAX.. fucking bald cunt..

Chinese sounds lovely.. 

[Lightscribe]

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-evergrande-shares-set-fall-71-after-it-says-no-guarantee-it-can-meet-2021-12-06/
 

Looks like Evergrande is going down the shitter. 
 

 

[Barnsey]

Seeing a LOT of forecasts like this suggesting problems for UK GDP growth in 2023, mark my words, an extension of the super deduction and/or cancelled Corp tax hike almost inevitable 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Been looking at crypto correlations and I think DB could be right that it's going to follow stocks if there's a crash.

 

Seems to be no hedge against inflation, no correlation with gold and correlation with Stocks in risk off periods.

 

I've only got about 5k worth but I think I'm going to get out of Dodge.

 

Cue 5000% increase over next 3 weeks 😂

[DurhamBorn]

12 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Been looking at crypto correlations and I think DB could be right that it's going to follow stocks if there's a crash.

 

Seems to be no hedge against inflation, no correlation with gold and correlation with Stocks in risk off periods.

 

I've only got about 5k worth but I think I'm going to get out of Dodge.

 

Cue 5000% increase over next 3 weeks 😂

Crypto will go to zero mostly,some will just go down 99%.They have almost zero worth.The only reason to hold is to hope the next person will pay more because they create or produce nothing.No income etc.They are not an asset.The young will lose everything in them.They buy them for the reason as old as time ,to get rich quick,but history shows the best way is get rich slow.Because they produce nothing its easy for people to talk their worth to infinity.

Just my opinion.

[Hunty]

40 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Crypto will go to zero mostly,some will just go down 99%.They have almost zero worth.The only reason to hold is to hope the next person will pay more because they create or produce nothing.No income etc.They are not an asset.The young will lose everything in them.They buy them for the reason as old as time ,to get rich quick,but history shows the best way is get rich slow.Because they produce nothing its easy for people to talk their worth to infinity.

Just my opinion.

Totally agree. My opinion aswell 

One big ponzi. 

But a great trade if you can keep getting on the right side of the dips and peaks. 

I'll stick to boring gold and silver. One day Rodder's ..... 

 

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Been looking at crypto correlations and I think DB could be right that it's going to follow stocks if there's a crash.

 

Seems to be no hedge against inflation, no correlation with gold and correlation with Stocks in risk off periods.

 

I've only got about 5k worth but I think I'm going to get out of Dodge.

 

Cue 5000% increase over next 3 weeks 😂

I'm setting up my first crypto account and will have a couple of thou to go in.  tell me when you sell. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

5 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I'm setting up my first crypto account and will have a couple of thou to go in.  tell me when you sell. 

Swapsies? 😂 

 

Bought all mine 3.5 years ago, 500 quid now worth about 5 grand.

 

Just did it to get some exposure as it's always at the back of the mind "what if it goes to a gazillion?", but I'm more and more doubtful that the coins aren't a Ponzi, the tech probably does have utility though.

[Sue Lowe]

On 04/12/2021 at 07:57, Castlevania said:

McDonald’s used to put vouchers in the free newspapers. They never used to check whether you had said voucher, simply ask for the offer and they gave it to you. Same if you bought a meal state that you’re a student and they’ll give you a free cheeseburger, they never checked.

Or if you use the self checkout machines you can use the same voucher (or type in the code if you don't have it) ad infinitum.

[Barnsey]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Crypto will go to zero mostly,some will just go down 99%.They have almost zero worth.The only reason to hold is to hope the next person will pay more because they create or produce nothing.No income etc.They are not an asset.The young will lose everything in them.They buy them for the reason as old as time ,to get rich quick,but history shows the best way is get rich slow.Because they produce nothing its easy for people to talk their worth to infinity.

Just my opinion.

This is probably the fourth time I've said this, but it really has acted as a perfect overflow reservoir for speculative behaviour in times of "emergency" stimulus. Primarily younger generation that can and will survive the losses, with minimal contagion to real assets.

Huge motherf***ing digital billboard on the M6 this morning advertising a crypto exchange in rush hour, used to just show adverts for suits and HGV vacancies.

[harp]

Wisdom tree Natural Gas ETF (NGAS)

Anyone got it? Looking good to ladder into this? 

[DurhamBorn]

35 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

This is probably the fourth time I've said this, but it really has acted as a perfect overflow reservoir for speculative behaviour in times of "emergency" stimulus. Primarily younger generation that can and will survive the losses, with minimal contagion to real assets.

Huge motherf***ing digital billboard on the M6 this morning advertising a crypto exchange in rush hour, used to just show adverts for suits and HGV vacancies.

I was in Tesco,two lads filling the carrots were talking about investing their pay in crypto.Twitter is full of bimbo's in flash cars telling everyone Dogecoin is going to the moon etc.They are all being fleeced,and will be.Bubbles always entail things with little to no value because then its easier to talk about infinite values etc.An asset produces something or is money,crypto isnt one or the other.I think it likely most will go down 99%+.Bitcoin might keep going and have runs now and again.Of course its me who doesnt understand it if i talked to those two Tesco lads,they are experts at 21 years old on how the world works.

Bubbles feed on people wanting a better life,but what they do is make people think there is a short cut rather than a long slog.

[Boon]

15 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I read something at the weekend that posited quantum computers will be able to hack bitcoin keys, which is their value, really. And because it's just a password,  it's not actually illegal to steal them as they are not physical things, just a string of numbers and letters . That'd be one way for it to end.

One interesting thing, if a quantum computer be developed in this way, wouldn't virtually everything become hackable?

Emails, government websites, bank accounts, anything that relies on data encrpytion.

What is most likely to come first? I seem to remember reading that some of the legacy bank systems are decades old.

The kind of actors that might be at the forefront of this might be out of reach of law, ie Russia/North Korea, and are not gonna care what is legal or not.

[Eventually Right]

31 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I was in Tesco,two lads filling the carrots were talking about investing their pay in crypto.Twitter is full of bimbo's in flash cars telling everyone Dogecoin is going to the moon etc.They are all being fleeced,and will be.Bubbles always entail things with little to no value because then its easier to talk about infinite values etc.An asset produces something or is money,crypto isnt one or the other.I think it likely most will go down 99%+.Bitcoin might keep going and have runs now and again.Of course its me who doesnt understand it if i talked to those two Tesco lads,they are experts at 21 years old on how the world works.

Bubbles feed on people wanting a better life,but what they do is make people think there is a short cut rather than a long slog.

I don't remember the quote exactly, but it's something along the lines of "Nothing makes someone more likely to lose all sense in investing than seeing their friends grow rich".

(That's actually a horrible misquote-but you get the idea)

I think the top 2/3/4 cryptos might keep doing well, albeit with big drawdowns, but like you say, most are a complete bust.  Raoul Pal has been banging the drum on them for years (and been right, it has to be said), but when i listen to him talk about the "exponential age" and the "metaverse" I just think "this isn't just because I don't understand it-this is utter bullshit".

Those two lads might end up 10/20x-ing their money in the next 6 months-but I bet they're still all in, when the crash happens.

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

This is probably the fourth time I've said this, but it really has acted as a perfect overflow reservoir for speculative behaviour in times of "emergency" stimulus. Primarily younger generation that can and will survive the losses, with minimal contagion to real assets.

Huge motherf***ing digital billboard on the M6 this morning advertising a crypto exchange in rush hour, used to just show adverts for suits and HGV vacancies.

https://www.ft.com/content/529eb4e6-796a-4e81-8064-5967bbe3b4d9

Tether is the big problem, its 80% of bitcoin trading and 1 "tether" is supposed to be tradable for 1 USD.  Problem is Tether only has 3% cash on hand, and yet people believe its 100% safe and their money is not a risk.  That's ignoring that Tether can print Tethers at will, which IMO since people believe they are convertible to dollars means that they have closest thing to a private money printer you can legally have without Uncle Sam smashing your door down.

 

 

Its a house built on sand, I can't believe they got away with it this long but they have!

[Loki]

35 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I read something at the weekend that posited quantum computers will be able to hack bitcoin keys, which is their value, really. And because it's just a password,  it's not actually illegal to steal them as they are not physical things, just a string of numbers and letters . That'd be one way for it to end.

OR...

Huge co-ordinated Intel Management Engine backdoor at CPU level (Or equivalent sophisticated hack)

"Oh look it was DAH QUANTUM COMPUTERS, we'll never find out who did it, qubits and shit you know? Sorry guys thanks for playing"

The only coins I own are offline and have consumed all the energy they will ever use...

[BWW]

5 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Swapsies? 😂 

 

Bought all mine 3.5 years ago, 500 quid now worth about 5 grand.

 

Just did it to get some exposure as it's always at the back of the mind "what if it goes to a gazillion?", but I'm more and more doubtful that the coins aren't a Ponzi, the tech probably does have utility though.

Why not take a grand out. Worst case outcome you doubled your stake from 4 years ago. Best case outcome with enough ponzi-new-entrants and 50x, you've got 200k and have 'only' missed out on the extra 50k if you hadn't taken the grand out. No regrets either way really.

If you take the lot out and it goes to 50x you're going to regret.

I'd see that as a free punt.

OTOH, I'm not buying in to the ponzi, even for 4k.

This investing is interesting psychologically, I don't regard any gain as real money until cashed and actually pretty much until I've sold a stock completely. That's just the way my mind works, didn't plan that.

[Axeman123]

31 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

I think the top 2/3/4 cryptos might keep doing well, albeit with big drawdowns, but like you say, most are a complete bust.

I always compare it to the dot.com boom (and bust). There may be world changing technology and future profitable companies involved, but you cannot realistically tell them apart from a sea of trash at this point in time.

[ThoughtCriminal]

31 minutes ago, BWW said:

Why not take a grand out. Worst case outcome you doubled your stake from 4 years ago. Best case outcome with enough ponzi-new-entrants and 50x, you've got 200k and have 'only' missed out on the extra 50k if you hadn't taken the grand out. No regrets either way really.

If you take the lot out and it goes to 50x you're going to regret.

I'd see that as a free punt.

OTOH, I'm not buying in to the ponzi, even for 4k.

This investing is interesting psychologically, I don't regard any gain as real money until cashed and actually pretty much until I've sold a stock completely. That's just the way my mind works, didn't plan that.

That's the problem with crypto though isn't it? Is 10k too soon to cash out? 100k? 1 million?

 

With shares you can say "Divis are nice so I'll keep them a few years". 

 

Or "Economic factor X is looking like doing Y, so I best sell up my widget maker".

 

What the fuck do we base selling crypto on? It's too much like sticking a finger in the air to predict the weather.

[Axeman123]

11 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

What the fuck do we base selling crypto on? It's too much like sticking a finger in the air to predict the weather.

The whole lambo meme was based on crypto guys rushing out to buy one when BTC hit 1k USD. Imagine being that guy, in a very social-media public way, and effectively having paid several million dollars for that car. Maybe if you were still sitting on several times that ammount you could be philosophical about it, but still...

Crypto trains long-term holders to never sell, most will likely hold until the pain is unbearable on a bigger pullback that breaks a major trend. 

[Loki]

24 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

That's the problem with crypto though isn't it? Is 10k too soon to cash out? 100k? 1 million?

 

With shares you can say "Divis are nice so I'll keep them a few years". 

 

Or "Economic factor X is looking like doing Y, so I best sell up my widget maker".

 

What the fuck do we base selling crypto on? It's too much like sticking a finger in the air to predict the weather.

They just don't interest me as anything other than a curiosity.  The rest of my wealth is electronic.  It's not even diversification in that sense, and less use than PMs in a SHTF scenario.  It seems like they would fail right when you need them most.

Fuck the system!

Here's another monetary system entirely dependent upon working electrical and communication systems, themselves dependant upon fuel delivery, itself dependent upon credit agreements between existing commercial banks using dollars

Fool proof.

[JimmyTheBruce]

32 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

That's the problem with crypto though isn't it? Is 10k too soon to cash out? 100k? 1 million?

 

With shares you can say "Divis are nice so I'll keep them a few years". 

 

Or "Economic factor X is looking like doing Y, so I best sell up my widget maker".

 

What the fuck do we base selling crypto on? It's too much like sticking a finger in the air to predict the weather.

I have more faith (or maybe hope?) than some on here that something good will eventually come out of crypto....

But that doesn't stop me selling another 0.001 of my BTC and ETH every time they hit a new high and hang around it for a few days.

If what I still have goes to zero I've still done OK out of it.  If it goes to the moon then I might buy the Mrs a new Wok.