Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 30.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 hour ago, BWW said:

This investing is interesting psychologically, I don't regard any gain as real money until cashed and actually pretty much until I've sold a stock completely. That's just the way my mind works, didn't plan that.

Healthy way to look at "losses" too, it's only a loss when you capitulate

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

Not sure if this has been posted-but seems relevant:

 

 

Almost identical to the BoE/LIBLABCON, FED/DEMREP policy on housing, as backed by the entire MSM.

Pump up prices and we'll all be rich, nobody can possibly lose!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

https://www.ft.com/content/529eb4e6-796a-4e81-8064-5967bbe3b4d9

Tether is the big problem, its 80% of bitcoin trading and 1 "tether" is supposed to be tradable for 1 USD.  Problem is Tether only has 3% cash on hand, and yet people believe its 100% safe and their money is not a risk.  That's ignoring that Tether can print Tethers at will, which IMO since people believe they are convertible to dollars means that they have closest thing to a private money printer you can legally have without Uncle Sam smashing your door down.

 

Tether: the former plastic surgeon behind the crypto reserve currency |  Financial Times

 

https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2Fee79b345-66b7-4833-8730-4907ab21bb2a.png?fit=scale-down&source=next&width=700

Its a house built on sand, I can't believe they got away with it this long but they have!

I heard today that Tether had 'printed' 1.5b Tethers to buy BTC to 'back Tether.

Hilarious really when the original point of crypto is considered.

Crypto is a joke that's going to hand world governments the next financial system on a silver platter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Why the spike in oil, have they admitted covids a load of shite?

image.png.ca643c64cad99a348447cae13737d0b3.png

I would say the iran deal news or lack of deal on the weekend is soaking in. Mystery to me is gas. Minus 10!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Why the spike in oil, have they admitted covids a load of shite?

image.png.ca643c64cad99a348447cae13737d0b3.png

Not in NY. 27th.

Just now, Phil said:

Not in NY. 27th.

It is a load of bollocks.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I heard today that Tether had 'printed' 1.5b Tethers to buy BTC to 'back Tether.

Hilarious really when the original point of crypto is considered.

Crypto is a joke that's going to hand world governments the next financial system on a silver platter.

I'm not sure this is going to be to anyone's benefit, total crypto market cap is around $2.8 Trillion, or just under UK GDP.  Something that size going bang is going to ripple through all asset classes doing damage. 

It is about time that reality started to reassert itself, which would be good for things like commodities who actually have a product to sell and not hype like a worryingly high percentage of the financial world these days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, BadAlchemy said:

The platform some of these people are using is quite appropriately named really.

Tick tock tick tock....

The question is when does it all die and go to money heaven.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thungela share holders will be very pleased this evening. 15% up following strong coal demand and upbeat end of year results.

https://www.miningreview.com/coal/thungela-posts-solid-results-despite-several-challenges-to-operations/

"Demand for energy, including thermal coal, has continued to improve as global economic activity recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic.

International coal supply from the major supply basins was disrupted by logistical constraints in China, Russia and Indonesia, community unrest in Colombia, and on-going geopolitical tensions between China and Australia.

Demand for high-quality South African coal has remained firm."

I am kicking myself so hard for not jumping in a few weeks ago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Something that size going bang is going to ripple through all asset classes doing damage. 

It is hard to guess what those ripples may look like. Normally you would think people finding themselves suddenly much poorer would dump other assets, like equities and property, in response. Do crypto holders typically have much of these assets to sell? The ones that do are likely older and more traditionally financially established, would even crypto going to zero force them to liquidate or just put back retirement? Most holders are "waiting for a million dollars per BTC" or whatever to sell, other than broken dreams what difference would it make to them short and medium term?

I don't know any of the above, and am not sure anyone really will until (or if) it happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

It is hard to guess what those ripples may look like. Normally you would think people finding themselves suddenly much poorer would dump other assets, like equities and property, in response. Do crypto holders typically have much of these assets to sell? The ones that do are likely older and more traditionally financially established, would even crypto going to zero force them to liquidate or just put back retirement? Most holders are "waiting for a million dollars per BTC" or whatever to sell, other than broken dreams what difference would it make to them short and medium term?

I don't know any of the above, and am not sure anyone really will until (or if) it happens.

I don't have answers to the questions you raise about crypto. However this guy Demetri Kofinas, past producer of Capital Account, thinks most crypto investing/speculation is part of what he calls 'market nihilism' - ...here he talks through that thesis and chats to his friend Grant Williams/End Game... bit long but worth the listen because i think it valuable to hear what the 'younger pundit types' have to say about the future financial unravelling.                                                https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dbAZY5DracYens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I consider myself a crypto enthusiast and yet find myself in broad agreement with much of the views expressed here of late.

But the big question if you're crypto-curious: when the current nihilistic (another lovely find @JMD!) mania passes, and the mad zoo of countless me-too coins collapses in on itself, what will be left? Do they all collapse more or less equally, or do some survive better than others?

To answer that question, you have to understand the magnitude of the breakthrough made by Satoshi in creating the Bitcoin network in the first place. And like all the other asset classes oft-discussed on this thread, there just isn't a substitute for leg-work and a bit of know-how.

Read and understand the white paper. Tinker with the code. Run a node. Write some tools. And if you can't or don't know how to do that, make sure you're getting your information from somebody who has.

If you do all that, it's hard not to come to this conclusion: it's a big deal, it's real, and like all breakthrough ideas you can't "unsee" it - it wouldn't surprise me if Satoshi's white paper is thought of in the same bracket as Einstein's annus mirabilis papers in years to come - it's *that* significant.

And remember, Einstein's ideas went from heretical nonsense to civilisational game-changer in just 40 years. Ideas like that have a habit of proving infectious: they can't/won't be stopped, but it's hard to predict exactly how fast the "infection" will spread.

Back to the question: what will emerge from the wreckage? Without doubt: "something". To figure out "what", it'll come down to the biggest crypto misunderstanding of all: the thing that has value is the not the token, but the network. And network (aka: "standards") effects are already very well-understood economically. See Betamax vs VHS, DC vs AC - "bigger and good enough" almost always beats "better".

So my informed attitude to crypto: there is a non-negligible chance crypto is a game-changer, and a good chance Bitcoin will emerge as the overall winner. Predicting *when* that happens - *if* it happens - is a mug's game, so best treat it as a hedge rather than an investment and allocate accordingly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

JimmyTheBruce
4 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

I consider myself a crypto enthusiast and yet find myself in broad agreement with much of the views expressed here of late.

But the big question if you're crypto-curious: when the current nihilistic (another lovely find @JMD!) mania passes, and the mad zoo of countless me-too coins collapses in on itself, what will be left? Do they all collapse more or less equally, or do some survive better than others?

To answer that question, you have to understand the magnitude of the breakthrough made by Satoshi in creating the Bitcoin network in the first place. And like all the other asset classes oft-discussed on this thread, there just isn't a substitute for leg-work and a bit of know-how.

Read and understand the white paper. Tinker with the code. Run a node. Write some tools. And if you can't or don't know how to do that, make sure you're getting your information from somebody who has.

If you do all that, it's hard not to come to this conclusion: it's a big deal, it's real, and like all breakthrough ideas you can't "unsee" it - it wouldn't surprise me if Satoshi's white paper is thought of in the same bracket as Einstein's annus mirabilis papers in years to come - it's *that* significant.

And remember, Einstein's ideas went from heretical nonsense to civilisational game-changer in just 40 years. Ideas like that have a habit of proving infectious: they can't/won't be stopped, but it's hard to predict exactly how fast the "infection" will spread.

Back to the question: what will emerge from the wreckage? Without doubt: "something". To figure out "what", it'll come down to the biggest crypto misunderstanding of all: the thing that has value is the not the token, but the network. And network (aka: "standards") effects are already very well-understood economically. See Betamax vs VHS, DC vs AC - "bigger and good enough" almost always beats "better".

So my informed attitude to crypto: there is a non-negligible chance crypto is a game-changer, and a good chance Bitcoin will emerge as the overall winner. Predicting *when* that happens - *if* it happens - is a mug's game, so best treat it as a hedge rather than an investment and allocate accordingly.

Why is jt able to summarise my own thoughts better than me?  

@jamtomorrow can you remember the name of that girl I met in Klute in 1998?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Einstein

Other geniuses are available. The electrical engineering phenomenon Nikola Tesla for example who ended up as nothing more than two cycle-topping electric vehicle brands...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Eventually Right said:

Those two lads might end up 10/20x-ing their money in the next 6 months-but I bet they're still all in, when the crash happens

This is the crux...getting out whilst winning...unfortunately most get greedy and end up with nothing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

This is the crux...getting out whilst winning...unfortunately most get greedy and end up with nothing.

age old problem everyone suffers from

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...