Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko
 Share

Recommended Posts

Cattle Prod

LNG is now trading at $160 a barrel of oil equivalent. Much cheaper to burn oil at current prices. And don't forget, it's much easier to transport to bottlenecks. I don't know what an indicator for this happening would be ..I know the Saudis have facilities to burn raw crude, but perhaps not many have that anymore. Watch for increased diesel refining maybe?

Screenshot_20210928-172603.thumb.png.98e985657a148a4eaf5b73ae7ee1e0cf.png

  • Agree 1
  • Informative 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

European gas prices smash historic high

Natural gas prices in Europe hit record highs in Tuesday’s trading, exceeding $1,000 per 1,000 cubic meters for the first time in history, data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) shows.

The price of October futures on the Dutch TTF exchange surged to $1,031.30 per 1,000 cubic meters, with the overall increase in gas prices since the beginning of the trading day exceeding 11%. The price of November futures on the TTF has reached almost $1,040 per 1,000 cubic meters.

https://www.rt.com/business/536001-europe-gas-price-record-high/

  • Informative 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, invalid said:

 

Apologies for being off topic, but as farming and energy was mentioned earlier I thought I would share this video of a 150 Case Steam tractor pulling a large plough. A huge machine that produced 150 horse power, hence the name.

I find it interesting because it better shows just how much work is required for farming. Look at those people working the plough handles and imagine each one doing it with a horse.

Cheap oil is the reason why we not all out in the fields walking behind a horse. Energy really is our modern way of life, everything is built on it. Watching that big tractor plough the soil for growing food really hits home at how its essential for even the oldest and most basic tasks of digging up dirt.

Edit - video starts at the interesting bit.

 

 

and it shows how coal will never, ever go away until fission or another tech breakthrough occurs.  If you are a farmer in India, and oil goes to 150 bucks a barrel and stays there, next stop is to remake a coal fed tractor.

  • Agree 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yadda yadda yadda
6 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

You can still get a five year fixed rate mortgage for 0.94%, from HSBC. Plenty of others just under 1%. According to the search on moneysavingexpert.

Wonder when they will creep up?

  • Informative 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, wherebee said:

Just sold 250 of XOM at a 100% profit.  Why?

Well, as someone said, you never go broke taking profits.  Plus... I told you I have been watching for the possible signs of a ADE/winter vaccine failure, and here we go:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRNA

down 7% on the day as I write.  down a lot more from 5 days ago.  Something has spooked them. Wish I knew insider selling data.

Pfizer - similar drop since last week. 3% today.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PFE?p=PFE&.tsrc=fin-srch

DYOR research, etc.  But.... 

I am sure this winter is going to be a shitshow in the west, and if so it could start the BK.  At the least, if lockdowns and the rest are slammed back on in the UK, it's going to shake the oilies.

I'll happily by XOM back in at 50, if it ever comes.

Holding onto Bp and Shell.

I love picking a short term top.  Sold at 60.50.  Down to 59.78 when I woke up.  Go on boy, down to 50-53 and I'll be tempted again if moderna/pfizer recover...

  • Cheers 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cattle Prod
4 hours ago, invalid said:

 

Apologies for being off topic, but as farming and energy was mentioned earlier I thought I would share this video of a 150 Case Steam tractor pulling a large plough. A huge machine that produced 150 horse power, hence the name.

I find it interesting because it better shows just how much work is required for farming. Look at those people working the plough handles and imagine each one doing it with a horse.

Cheap oil is the reason why we not all out in the fields walking behind a horse. Energy really is our modern way of life, everything is built on it. Watching that big tractor plough the soil for growing food really hits home at how its essential for even the oldest and most basic tasks of digging up dirt.

Edit - video starts at the interesting bit.

 

 

And bear in mind that a VW Golf has 150 horsepower these days, and any idiot can buy one. Basically free energy.

  • Agree 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, wherebee said:

you could well be right.  I just would hate to be sitting here come jan, with oilies back down in the 40's due to ADE apocalyse, thinking what if.

If ADE was a thing would it not have happened by now?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

You can still get a five year fixed rate mortgage for 0.94%, from HSBC. Plenty of others just under 1%. According to the search on moneysavingexpert.

Wonder when they will creep up?

I got a 10 year fixed 2 years ago at 2.9% 

Its a bit high compared to what they are offering now.. But I was trying to protect myself from a sudden economic Armageddon which are hard to predict.. 

I'm overpaying it so it should reduce some of the interest..

  • Agree 5
  • Cheers 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, macca said:

If ADE was a thing would it not have happened by now?

well, some people are saying it takes 2-3 years.  Some saying 6 months.  Some saying 12.  Some saying won't happen at all.  Each group have their own reasons and vested interests for saying this.

In short, nobody knows.

  • Agree 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lightscribe
4 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

You can still get a five year fixed rate mortgage for 0.94%, from HSBC. Plenty of others just under 1%. According to the search on moneysavingexpert.

Wonder when they will creep up?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/24/mortgage-rates-rise-and-more-increases-could-be-coming.html
 

They already are in the US. They’ll follow here just like the BoE will follow the Fed.

I’ve always viewed the housing market as a gigantic oil tanker ship. The signal to stop and turn has already been given but it’s always the last thing to react, with so much of the economy reliant on it.

Even with a rise by a few percentage points, we can all see where it’s all heading, the central banks have already laid out their intentions. It will come as a complete surprise to the average joe on the street however with a 1/4-1/2 million mortgage who’s cost of living and bills already have already skyrocketed due to inflation.

 

  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

JimmyTheBruce
3 hours ago, macca said:

I got a 10 year fixed 2 years ago at 2.9% 

Its a bit high compared to what they are offering now.. But I was trying to protect myself from a sudden economic Armageddon which are hard to predict.. 

I'm overpaying it so it should reduce some of the interest..

I'd have another look around now if I was you.  I was on a 10 year fix at 2.4%, and, even with the ERC, the current rates are so low that it made sense for me to switch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

jamtomorrow

Probably not news to anyone here, but I got to thinking about the China coal shortage this morning - specifically: why *now*? Answer: I hadn't clocked that Xi cut China off from Australian coal earlier in the year.

Taken with the recent AUSUK shenanigans, it does make you wonder whose interests are best served by the Aus-China coal stoppage. I suspect the answer is everyone thinks "ours", which means this will get worse - probably much worse - before it gets better.

The West because of the unfolding squeeze it puts on China's energy security. Xi because it feeds into the China-as-victim-of-West narrative. I'd be surprised if Xi lifts the ban "overtly".

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/china-may-be-forced-to-lift-australia-coal-ban-as-power-crisis-worsens-20210928-p58vkf.html

China may be forced to lift Australia coal ban as power crisis worsens

China’s power crisis looks set to spur it to import more coal from a wider range of producers, putting it into competition with European and Indian buyers that are also snapping up more of the dirtiest fossil fuel.

More than two-thirds of China’s electricity comes from coal-fired plants and, while more than 90 per cent of the fuel it uses is mined locally, it’s difficult to raise local output at short notice. Looking offshore is the easier option, but that’s been complicated somewhat by Beijing’s decision to ban imports from Australia - the world’s second-biggest exporter - late last year.

It isn’t easy to ramp up local coal supply, given the low investment in new mines in recent years, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Michelle Leung said in a note. Over-mining is also strongly prohibited amid safety concerns, she said.

Instead, China is likely to try and increase purchases from traditional sources. Jilin province will seek more coal from Indonesia, Russia and Mongolia to ensure power supply and heating, Governor Han Jun said in a statement.

Asia’s largest economy could also look farther afield to coal exporters like South Africa, Colombia, the US and Canada, putting it into competition with buyers in other parts of the world and adding more impetus to global price rallies. European electricity producers are snapping up coal as a shortage of natural gas forces utilities to burn it to cope with their own power crunch, while India is also running low on inventories of the fuel.

 

“Given the coal shortage in the country, we can expect China to ramp up its buying activity and most of it is likely to come from south-east Asian markets due to proximity,” said Abhinav Gupta, a dry cargo research analyst at Braemar ACM Shipbroking. “Most of these coal producers are at peak capacity, which may tighten the coal market and push up prices.”

Beijing could, of course, decide to ease the ban on Australian coal imports, although that may not be politically palatable. BI’s Leung doesn’t think it’s likely, although Ralph Leszczynski, head of research at shipbroker Banchero Costa & Co, reckons it’s a possibility. “Soon the Chinese government might be forced into easing the ban on Australian coal, as that would allow more coal to be imported and ease some pressure on domestic coal prices,” he said.

At least 17 Chinese provinces and regions making up 66 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product have announced some form of power cuts, mostly targeted at heavy industrial users, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The reasons are two-fold - record high coal prices are causing power generators to trim output despite soaring demand, while some areas have proactively halted electricity flows to meet emissions and energy intensity goals.

China’s energy crisis is shaping up as the latest shock to global supply chains as factories are forced to conserve energy by curbing production. The disruption comes as producers and shippers race to meet demand for everything from clothing to toys for the year-end shopping season, grappling with supply lines that have been upended by soaring raw material costs, long delays at ports and shortages of shipping containers.

China is taking steps to ease an electricity shortage although more policies are needed, state media reported on Tuesday, as the world’s second-largest economy braces for shocks from a worsening supply crunch. The tight supply situation is likely to ease gradually due to measures by authorities to ensure power production and avoid cuts, the official Economic Information Daily said in a front-page report, citing unnamed industry experts

  • Informative 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Best sell your oil stocks boys, the dementia patient is going to have a chat with OPEC. 🤡

 

Conveniently, API oil inventory figures blew the forecasts away last night:

Oil +4.13M (Expectation -2.33M)

Gasoline +3.56M

Distillate +2.48M

All this with gulf oil supply still down.

Hmmmm

Thinking about shorting RDSB this morning.

  • Informative 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Best sell your oil stocks boys, the dementia patient is going to have a chat with OPEC. 🤡

 

Wouldn't worry, he may have that booked but he'll show up somewhere else :D

  • Lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Does anyone else use IG for spread betting?

Loads of items I want to trade on are 'close only' (inc most gold miners) and after I made some money the other day on Nat Gas ETF I now cant short it any more.

 

Thinking about other options, does anyone have any recommendations?

Thanks in advance

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don Coglione
2 minutes ago, planit said:

Does anyone else use IG for spread betting?

Loads of items I want to trade on are 'close only' (inc most gold miners) and after I made some money the other day on Nat Gas ETF I now cant short it any more.

 

Thinking about other options, does anyone have any recommendations?

Thanks in advance

 

IG are cunts. As soon as an obvious short opens up, they close it off. There may well be technical reasons for this, but they are still cunts.

Their platform is also really shaky and any complaint is met with some unintelligible and insincere Inglian response.

Cunts.

  • Agree 1
  • Bogged 1
  • Lol 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   2 members

    • keely
    • Sue Lowe
×
×
  • Create New...