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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

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6 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Fear of US sanctions if ukraine gets hot. Gazprom also dropping.

 

That’s true,  but miners generally **seem** cheap.   Look at Vale..  PE 4.4,  Dividend 19%..  etc..   look too good to be true,  unless metal prices are going through the floor and energy costs really will kill their margins o.O  

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Blackrock:

"The world’s largest asset manager, the $US10 trillion BlackRock, has ruled out selling shares in carbon intensive companies such as those in oil and gas, arguing that they have the potential to be “phoenixes” by transitioning to a net zero world."

 

The DOSBODS rallying cry: "DO NOT TRUST WHAT THEY SAY. WATCH WHAT THEY DO"

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Noticed a post on Facebook last night about the roll out of cheap internet for Universal Credit folk - both are calling it essentials.
Looked up Virgin 15 quid a month for 15Mb down 2Mb up.
BT was 15 quid a month for around 30-35Mb down and 2Mb up IIRC.
Im paying 31 quid a month for 100Mb down and 20Mb upload (virgin).

200 quid energy payment for UC recipients (and other means tested benefits) is going through here soon. Payment into account, not to energy supplier like previous scheme. Maybe my fb marketplace sales will see an uptick soon!

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Joncrete Cungle
7 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Noticed a post on Facebook last night about the roll out of cheap internet for Universal Credit folk - both are calling it essentials.
Looked up Virgin 15 quid a month for 15Mb down 2Mb up.
BT was 15 quid a month for around 30-35Mb down and 2Mb up IIRC.
Im paying 31 quid a month for 100Mb down and 20Mb upload (virgin).

200 quid energy payment for UC recipients (and other means tested benefits) is going through here soon. Payment into account, not to energy supplier like previous scheme. Maybe my fb marketplace sales will see an uptick soon!

I better get some more of my bankrupt fishing tackle shop stock up for sale.

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20 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

They can keep printing.  Governments have done it in the past.  Collapse ultimately follows though.

The question is...how far will Sunake/Powell/The Criminal Lagarde etc go before something really gives, I dont think they'll stop till something does.  Maybe house prices up 20% in a year, Inflation at 10% is a warning sign, but look at IRs and look at inflation, they aint for stopping.

Now I read insurance companies are piling into the housing market, with prices at all time unaffordable levels.

It's like they are being incentivised to do this, maybe to collect on the middle classes savings via wealth redistribution/Housing benefit.

Thatchers end game.  

 

The problem is 'we' have to then live in such a society, where community spirit will be replace by a 'Dog eat dog' mentality. Alongside the good ideas mentioned in this thread to preserve the buying power of our capital, I think people also need to consider this. Whilst I am still relatively young I am looking at moving to a better place, as I can see as an OAP in the UK you will be an easy target from both the government and others who will want anything you may have and that they can take, forcibly if necessary.

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51 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Fear of US sanctions if ukraine gets hot. Gazprom also dropping.

I.ve backed up the truck and ordered a portrait of Putin for my wall. 

Yes, a bit concerned about my Russian holdings as they're weak while others aren't and this has been going on for a while.  So I better get ready to back up the truck!

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country%20garden%20bonds%202031.jpg?itok=uno2KR39

Country Garden is currently the biggest developer in China, it perhaps was not the smartest move to bail out internal creditors and tell foreign ones to take a running jump off a cliff, they tend to not want to lend you money in future!

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20 hours ago, AWW said:

The government wants both parents working, as that then creates another job (and source of taxation) in the form of childminders.  I'm the sole earner in my household.  We don't get child benefit, we don't get tax relief on nursery fees, I don't even get a personal allowance FFS. It's our choice, as we want our kids to be brought up by their parents, not childminders.

The amount of tax that is taken off me is, frankly, sickening. Obviously, we're pretty comfortable, but we're not rich by any means, and while the loss of child benefit is obviously unwelcome, I can understand it. The loss of personal allowance, however, just boils my piss, and it happens right around the salary range to properly fuck over those who are doing alright.

My bold and agree 100%.  I've tracked my % of taxes, spending and savings as a portion of my gross earnings very closely since the start of 2013.  For me it's been:

  • 46.0% saved
  • 38.3% went in employee NI and tax.  They also got even more via employers NI
  • 15.7% spent by us as a family

Frankly, it's sickening to stand back and look at how much the government has taken over all those years.

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27 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

The problem is 'we' have to then live in such a society, where community spirit will be replace by a 'Dog eat dog' mentality. 

IMHO we've lived in a dog eat dog society for all my adult life, which has been the last 30 years.

Seem to remember an ex miner stating that he now can afford all sorts of gadgets, but its came at the expense of people looking out for each other, thus that community spirit you refer to has long gone.

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16 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

4 day week trials - https://metro.co.uk/2022/01/17/four-day-working-week-pilot-launched-in-uk-15929727/

"A six-month trial period of a four-day working week has today been launched across the UK.

Some 30 British companies are expected to take part in the pilot, which will see no loss in pay for employees working one fewer day a week.

Instead they will be asked to maintain 100% productivity for 80% of their time."

 

Already doing 4 days 100% work from home and that extra day off is marvellous.  So much so that I'm now seriously exploring going to 2 days 100% work from home as a next step on my way to full FIRE.

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16 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I know a granny who looks after baby 1 day a week but has been using up 1-day's leave each time. I know she works like fuck anyway so suggested she make a request under the flexible working laws for compressed hours. Same contractual weekly hours compressed into 4 days. No surprise US headquartered company resisting but it's the law they have to consider it fairly. 

Maybe time to find a company that will let her work 4 days.  Probably get more money as well.

Corporations depend on small incremental increases annually while they capture the productivity to maximise profits while the employee gets further and further behind.  Has worked for a lot of years but my reading suggests the pendulum has swung a little in the favour of the employee at this moment in time.

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16 minutes ago, WICAO said:

My bold and agree 100%.  I've tracked my % of taxes, spending and savings as a portion of my gross earnings very closely since the start of 2013.  For me it's been:

  • 46.0% saved
  • 38.3% went in employee NI and tax.  They also got even more via employers NI
  • 15.7% spent by us as a family

Frankly, it's sickening to stand back and look at how much the government has taken over all those years.

Given that you have been renting throughout that period, for those numbers to stack up, you must have been earning well into six figures. Good for you (and please don't think that I am calling you disingenuous), but this does rather confirm that FIRE is a (relatively) rich man's game, most simply cannot aspire to making that sort of money.

Unless you sold a million copies of your book, in which case, cheers!

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working woman
28 minutes ago, WICAO said:

Frankly, it's sickening to stand back and look at how much the government has taken over all those years.

Just to make you even more depressed -don't forget to add in Council Tax

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9 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

Given that you have been renting throughout that period, for those numbers to stack up, you must have been earning well into six figures. Good for you (and please don't think that I am calling you disingenuous), but this does rather confirm that FIRE is a (relatively) rich man's game, most simply cannot aspire to making that sort of money.

Unless you sold a million copies of your book, in which case, cheers!

My experience is that most surrender before they even find out.  In 2007 I was a very average Joe and nothing special.  My forum name was wish I could afford one for a reason.  By 2016 (the year I became FI) I was earning a lot lot more than 2007, spending a lot lot less while having a much better less consumerist life and investing the difference confidently.

The book gets very mixed reviews because it's about re-engineering your life and not a get rich quick scheme.  Most don't get it.  So with most not getting it and a price tag of £2.99 a copy its contribution is not even a rounding error in my wealth spreadsheet.  I wrote it to try and be helpful as I've genuinely found the experience life changing.  I didn't write it to get rich quick because by the time I'd written it I was already 'rich' in both assets and life.

12 minutes ago, working woman said:

Just to make you even more depressed -don't forget to add in Council Tax

That's one of the big changes I've noticed about Australia.  Here our Council Tax (called Rates here) is paid by the landlord.

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1 hour ago, Libspero said:

That’s true,  but miners generally **seem** cheap.   Look at Vale..  PE 4.4,  Dividend 19%..  etc..   look too good to be true,  unless metal prices are going through the floor and energy costs really will kill their margins o.O  

Vale has a annual dividend of about 5% according to link below, was this some special once off never to be repeated additional?

Suggest you research if you are buying a 19 or 5 percent dividend payer. Also look at their safety record and live government investigations.

No comment on vale, dyor

https://www.dividendmax.com/brazil/brazilian-stock-exchange/mining/vale-sa/dividends

 

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22 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

Given that you have been renting throughout that period, for those numbers to stack up, you must have been earning well into six figures. Good for you (and please don't think that I am calling you disingenuous), but this does rather confirm that FIRE is a (relatively) rich man's game, most simply cannot aspire to making that sort of money.

Unless you sold a million copies of your book, in which case, cheers!

I worked from 18 to 30 had 6 years off,i then worked from 36 to 49 with 7 years of that self employed,never earned much over £36k a year and retired at 49 pushing the lifetime allowance in my SIPP,house paid off etc,big ISA.Anyone can do it,you need to focus,learn how to invest (crucial) and get rid of expenses.Nobody gave me anything.Move north,rent a room,live frugal,invest everything,then buy a house up here,rent a room to a lodger,use that to finish off the mortgage,if your with someone claim your not,let her get bennies etc.Its not for everyone,some prefer to consumer through life and work until mid 60s,nothing wrong with that,but FIRE is easy for someone at say 55,50 do-able on average wages.Down south could be a different story,but i wouldnt live there for anything,lots of family there and hate it.

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13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I worked from 18 to 30 had 6 years off,i then worked from 36 to 49 with 7 years of that self employed,never earned much over £36k a year and retired at 49 pushing the lifetime allowance in my SIPP,house paid off etc,big ISA.Anyone can do it,you need to focus,learn how to invest (crucial) and get rid of expenses.Nobody gave me anything.Move north,rent a room,live frugal,invest everything,then buy a house up here,rent a room to a lodger,use that to finish off the mortgage,if your with someone claim your not,let her get bennies etc.Its not for everyone,some prefer to consumer through life and work until mid 60s,nothing wrong with that,but FIRE is easy for someone at say 55,50 do-able on average wages.Down south could be a different story,but i wouldnt live there for anything,lots of family there and hate it.

I am a great admirer of your story, db, in fact it was this that got me off my arse to start actively investing, for which I am eternally grateful.

As you wrote in an earlier post, a paid-off house is key. Not everyone can move to County Durham (if they did, house prices would go through the roof!). My point was that WICAO's spending of 15.7% of earnings included rent, presumably in or near London to be earning that sort of coin.

In any event, it appears that my original post caused some offence, for which I apologise.

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HousePriceMania
10 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

Everything videoed on phones now and uploaded to social media, puking in a hedge not what it used to be in being a harmless memory of last night. Now that stuff can follow you and haunt you on the web.

 

 

spacer.png

 

 

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15 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Vale has a annual dividend of about 5% according to link below, was this some special once off never to be repeated additional?

I was just taking the info at face value from google..   like this:

Screenshot-2022-01-18-094957.png

 

I'm not sure how they are calculating it.  I used to use Bloomberg,  but they now want £300 a year subscription.   Do you have any good recommendations for sites/apps to do market research,  or do you literally drill down into all the annual reports ?

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8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I worked from 18 to 30 had 6 years off,i then worked from 36 to 49 with 7 years of that self employed,never earned much over £36k a year and retired at 49 pushing the lifetime allowance in my SIPP,house paid off etc,big ISA.Anyone can do it,you need to focus,learn how to invest (crucial) and get rid of expenses.Nobody gave me anything.Move north,rent a room,live frugal,invest everything,then buy a house up here,rent a room to a lodger,use that to finish off the mortgage,if your with someone claim your not,let her get bennies etc.Its not for everyone,some prefer to consumer through life and work until mid 60s,nothing wrong with that,but FIRE is easy for someone at say 55,50 do-able on average wages.Down south could be a different story,but i wouldnt live there for anything,lots of family there and hate it.

Worked a similar amount, and whilst not able to full retire just yet, ive 162k in the SIPP at 46 ... and i'm down to needing to  work 50/60 days a year, which enables me to fund a private education ... for the last 8 years ive only worked only worked circa 70-90 days a year.

Being single and not having an expensive bird makes it viable.

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5 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

I am a great admirer of your story, db, in fact it was this that got me off my arse to start actively investing, for which I am eternally grateful.

As you wrote in an earlier post, a paid-off house is key. Not everyone can move to County Durham (if they did, house prices would go through the roof!). My point was that WICAO's spending of 15.7% of earnings included rent, presumably in or near London to be earning that sort of coin.

In any event, it appears that my original post caused some offence, for which I apologise.

Absolutely no offence caused to me @Don Coglione and apologies if it came across that way.  I know my communication skills can be a little lacking on occasion.

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3 minutes ago, Libspero said:

I was just taking the info at face value from google..   like this:

Screenshot-2022-01-18-094957.png

 

I'm not sure how they are calculating it.  I used to use Bloomberg,  but they now want £300 a year subscription.   Do you have any good recommendations for sites/apps to do market research,  or do you literally drill down into all the annual reports ?

For a miner, you need the reports imho to understand the aisc and metal make up of its products.

ANTO for example is heavily influences by copper price 

Paas by silver price

You wont get aisc or metals on a financial site full of numbers

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