Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Don Coglione]

8 minutes ago, Libspero said:

I was just taking the info at face value from google..   like this:

 

I'm not sure how they are calculating it.  I used to use Bloomberg,  but they now want £300 a year subscription.   Do you have any good recommendations for sites/apps to do market research,  or do you literally drill down into all the annual reports ?

That number is corrupted by a recent special dividend.

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

I am a great admirer of your story, db, in fact it was this that got me off my arse to start actively investing, for which I am eternally grateful.

As you wrote in an earlier post, a paid-off house is key. Not everyone can move to County Durham (if they did, house prices would go through the roof!). My point was that WICAO's spending of 15.7% of earnings included rent, presumably in or near London to be earning that sort of coin.

In any event, it appears that my original post caused some offence, for which I apologise.

Not at all Don,and of course im an outlier by a long long way from the investing side.In a way being born in the poorest town in England as i was,but having a skill that meant i could multiply capital was the perfect mix.I think though you need to know early ,very early,i knew i wanted to retire early/be financially secure at 14.Most people end up married etc and before they know it they are 35 with no savings,debts and a spend thrift wife.Ive ended it with women in the past who were stunners because they wanted 3 holidays a year etc.Iv been brutal in my focus.My worry is the young seem to be full of excuses now though why they cant save,and they are walking into a government set trap.

I saved around half my salary when working,but iv multi bagged those savings over and over and over again.This last year iv done 10x my working average earnings for instance.Snowball affect.

[JMD]

12 hours ago, Libspero said:

Hi guys..  I’ve been put off joining in on this thread,  simply because it’s so long.

Is anyone able to provide a brief overview of the state of the nation?

As far as I can tell the general theme is inflation protection and avoiding tech and momentum stocks..  the rotation as it seems to be called.

Can anyone help get me up to speed? 

I don't know if the following helps any... please note this is super macro!!                                                  https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MabLtuTpDw8

[DurhamBorn]

Interesting dont you think,top risers in the FTSE 

[Hancock]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

.My worry is the young seem to be full of excuses now though why they cant save,and they are walking into a government set trap.

I saved around half my salary when working,but iv multi bagged those savings over and over and over again.This last year iv done 10x my working average earnings for instance.Snowball affect.

To be fair they've been told they need a degree for relatively simple jobs including nursing, copper etc.. then they've the most expensive housing in history to buy.

Only way they've got a chance is if the bank of mum and dad can give them a headstart.

[HousePriceMania]

Forget all this oil pish, property is the way to go.

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

16 minutes ago, Hancock said:

To be fair they've been told they need a degree for relatively simple jobs including nursing, copper etc.. then they've the most expensive housing in history to buy.

Only way they've got a chance is if the bank PONZI of mum and dad can give them a headstart .

 

[sleepwello'nights]

On 17/01/2022 at 08:37, Funn3r said:

I have a very good friend, woman in her 50s. She is intelligent, reasonably well-off, and an accountant in a large company but it's exactly as you say. She treats money as if it were tesco clubcard points. Imagine someone actively not caring, I've seen her spend hundreds where a few minutes thought could have achieved whatever it was at much less or even no cost. 

There's more to life than the size of your portfolio or the numbers in your bank account.

What is the point of FIRE if you don't enjoy life whule you're planning for the future...that you may never reach.

[Harley]

57 minutes ago, WICAO said:

My experience is that most surrender before they even find out.  In 2007 I was a very average Joe and nothing special.  My forum name was wish I could afford one for a reason.  By 2016 (the year I became FI) I was earning a lot lot more than 2007, spending a lot lot less while having a much better less consumerist life and investing the difference confidently.

The book gets very mixed reviews because it's about re-engineering your life and not a get rich quick scheme.  Most don't get it.  So with most not getting it and a price tag of £2.99 a copy its contribution is not even a rounding error in my wealth spreadsheet.  I wrote it to try and be helpful as I've genuinely found the experience life changing.  I didn't write it to get rich quick because by the time I'd written it I was already 'rich' in both assets and life.

My partner and I rented a very small starter home down south for 15 years while we accumulated savings and I really started to learn about investing.  But we've always been frugal.  My work colleagues must have thought I had a drug habit and I couldn't have done it if I cared about the "Jones'".  We had a vision based on an independent outlook.  We finally bought a wreck where we wanted to live (consistent with what we could see happening) and learnt how to renovate it and then used those skills onwards.  We started off sleeping on a concrete floor in winter with a gas heater and black mould on the walls.  Everything we've got we've worked smart and hard for.  Yes, we earned good coin but so did all the others I knew who now have nothing other than a house down South of dubious value and a dependency to it.  Nothing worth having is for free and beware the snake oil.  I have no idea if it's possible today but it didn't seem possible to most back then either.  Probably some practically can and can't do it and some emotionally can and can't do it.  Good luck wherever you end up.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Over Xmas I attended a couple of work and retirement dos, London pints are well north of £6 going onto £7 and beyond now. Basically £15 for two pints and a packet of crisps.

What also grinds my gears, are these hipster Brew Dog places that try and give you a small bottle of some hoppy IPA and call it wanky name for the same price as a pint. What’s with the coke can sizes of beer nowadays? Have we really descended that far into a nation of tossers not to be able to drink a pint? 

Pubs/bars (especially in cities) will now hasten their own demise. They haven’t got the footfall they once had, will have to compete to pay more for staff and supplies and will try to lump on the costs onto the punter (faced with their own rising cost of living) who will just increasingly take the cheaper option of drinking at home instead.

I measure by my own gauge of being a pub goer from at least once a week, to once every few months now.

Final nail in the coffin is that younger generation don’t drink on any scale of previous generations either, it’s too expensive and they’d rather go out for a coffee: Times are a changing and the city economy as we once knew it is fucked.

P.S a large kebab is around £10 now too, so you’ll need a small fortune nowadays to get pissed and manage to find your way home (trains still running reduced services)

Yes, the global alcoholic drinks manufacturers are I think a good bet, they make quality products at massive scale and so at affordable prices, and to recipes that have stood the test of time (some for 100s of years!). People think local micro heritage breweries etc offer better quality, they don't. Anyway Diageo etc are on my BK wish list.

[CannonFodder]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Not at all Don,and of course im an outlier by a long long way from the investing side.In a way being born in the poorest town in England as i was,but having a skill that meant i could multiply capital was the perfect mix.I think though you need to know early ,very early,i knew i wanted to retire early/be financially secure at 14.Most people end up married etc and before they know it they are 35 with no savings,debts and a spend thrift wife.Ive ended it with women in the past who were stunners because they wanted 3 holidays a year etc.Iv been brutal in my focus.My worry is the young seem to be full of excuses now though why they cant save,and they are walking into a government set trap.

I saved around half my salary when working,but iv multi bagged those savings over and over and over again.This last year iv done 10x my working average earnings for instance.Snowball affect.

I agree with this. 

I was very happy in my job from graduation until mid thirties, it entertained me and it was a great place, never thought about retiring. Just drifted along 

Then big fall out between directors and I was collateral damage as the full reporting chain of directors left and business  imploded badly. It was an epic own goal of ceo.

Moved somewhere else, they were bought out, again i was collateral damage so i quit as new management were not nice people. 

In another firm now and i quite like the role but now I focus heavily on being financially secure as I fully appreciate the randomness and precarious nature of needing a wage.

Focus and work produces huge benefits, surprising how fast wealth accumulates.

it shocked me just how much random arbitary left field curves balls can rock a career. They really come out of nowhere too.

I like my job but I.M also realising that they be a time that i will be unable to haul my carcass out of bed at 5.00 am to shiver on a train platform with my suit and laptop.

 

[Harley]

54 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

That number is corrupted by a recent special dividend.

My trick is to look at the historic dividend payout on the cash flow statement to see if it's "(not too!) strong and stable"!

[Libspero]

53 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

For a miner, you need the reports imho to understand the aisc and metal make up of its products.

ANTO for example is heavily influences by copper price 

I like the idea of investing in some copper miners..  there's got to be a lot of upside with the move to electric.  Gonna need a lot of copper to shift all that current around at high speeds.   Any suggestions of good picks to research appreciated !

Edit to add:   looks like I already missed the band waggon.  SCCO is well up and P/E up in the 16s.

[Axeman123]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

...Whilst I am still relatively young I am looking at moving to a better place, as I can see as an OAP in the UK you will be an easy target from both the government and others who will want anything you may have and that they can take, forcibly if necessary.

Surely you would be even more vulnerable as a foreigner someplace else? Also we may grumble about the UK, but rule of law and property rights are about as strong here as anywhere.

2 hours ago, WICAO said:

Frankly, it's sickening to stand back and look at how much the government has taken over all those years.

Sometimes its best not to think about it, except if you can use that to motivate reducing that figure going forward.

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Country Garden is currently the biggest developer in China, it perhaps was not the smartest move to bail out internal creditors and tell foreign ones to take a running jump off a cliff, they tend to not want to lend you money in future!

Presumably this is why the Chinese CB have cut rates, and criticized other nations for raising theirs.

I also note that the 10yr treasury yield has moved past the 1.8% threshold, (perhaps on route to DHs ~2% near term target?)

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

I've banged on in the past about China's strategic weakness wrt to oil and gas, and the only place for them to secure supplies is in the Middle East.

It really is fascinating to watch the great game of geopolitics and energy play out, once you get switched on the players and their motivations.

[Harley]

34 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

There's more to life than the size of your portfolio or the numbers in your bank account.

What is the point of FIRE if you don't enjoy life whule you're planning for the future...that you may never reach.

Depends on personal values.  Each to their own but each must accept the consequences of their actions.  It's no hardship for me, it's liberating.  But yes, a it's a balance and money is of no use unless it's used and used wisely.  I would never go all in and sacrifice today for tomorrow, I just happen to be content with not spending much today.  We've always had the philosophy of never leaping but always aiming to have only one foot on the ground at any time!

[Funn3r]

1 hour ago, WICAO said:

Maybe time to find a company that will let her work 4 days.  Probably get more money as well.

 

I've always felt a bit dislocated when working for a large company with its ultimate management in another country. I've had several. It's amazing how clueless they can be in attempting to export their own work cultures to UK. American multinationals are the worst with their "my way or the highway" thing. They just refuse to accept UK laws don't necessarily allow the kickass hire and fire that they are used to.

[Hancock]

26 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

There's more to life than the size of your portfolio or the numbers in your bank account.

What is the point of FIRE if you don't enjoy life whule you're planning for the future...that you may never reach.

Maybe the planning and saving brings fulfilment of sorts or at least fills some sort of gap. From what i see the planning and saving seems to start at the age when drinking and partying ends.

 

[Hancock]

22 minutes ago, Libspero said:

I like the idea of investing in some copper miners..  there's got to be a lot of upside with the move to electric.  Gonna need a lot of copper to shift all that current around at high speeds.   Any suggestions of good picks to research appreciated !

Edit to add:   looks like I already missed the band waggon.  SCCO is well up and P/E up in the 16s.

This one seems safer.

https://www.janushenderson.com/en-gb/investor/product/henderson-far-east-income-limited/

https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB864GB864&q=LON:+HFEL&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgecRoxi3w8sc9YSndSWtOXmNU5-IKzsgvd80rySypFJLkYoOy-KV4ubj10_UNU0pKsuPTinkWsXL6-PtZKXi4ufoAALtOqj9HAAAA&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjPkr-7l7b1AhXDQUEAHREvDXYQsRV6BAgUEAM&biw=1366&bih=625&dpr=1

[Don Coglione]

7 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Maybe the planning and saving brings fulfilment of sorts or at least fills some sort of gap. From what i see the planning and saving seems to start at the age when drinking and partying ends.

 

I must be living life arse-backwards then!

[Harley]

22 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Surely you would be even more vulnerable as a foreigner someplace else? Also we may grumble about the UK, but rule of law and property rights are about as strong here as anywhere.

That and there's more to it - thinking of a physical versus a virtual existence.

23 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Sometimes its best not to think about it, except if you can use that to motivate reducing that figure going forward.

That and Frank Hovis seems to have mastered the art of paying low tax via various tax schemes such as careful VCTs.

25 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Presumably this is why the Chinese CB have cut rates, and criticized other nations for raising theirs.

Lots of Asian REITs coming up on my screens.  Tempting but, er, no thanks for right now!  Well, maybe just a......!

[Hancock]

55 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Forget all this oil pish, property is the way to go.

 

 

This seems like fraud to me, but quite why people give what is in essence interest free loans to developers by buying off plan is stupidity.

I vaguely know Steve Worboys, he set up ExperienceBG, then ExperienceInternational and flogged off plan apartments, he was exceptionally good at it and presumably made 10s of millions ... my business partner over there used him to get experience selling flats.

He threatened us with court action when i copied his website!

What an absolute cunt.

[Harley]

9 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Maybe the planning and saving brings fulfilment of sorts or at least fills some sort of gap. From what i see the planning and saving seems to start at the age when drinking and partying ends.

 

My dad, from farming stock, only ever gave me one bit of advice.  That was to go out and sow my wild oats.  I guess enough said as the rest flowed from that!

[belfastchild]

18 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

 The administration doesn't even think it's relevant to their energy policy. They either think the US is self sufficient in oil and gas / its a dead industry and should be replaced by windmills / the industry should be destroyed and let people starve or freeze / fracking will save them again. None of these things are true. 
 

It may not be relevant at all but last year I did an online postgrad course at Harvardx (yeah, not as fancy as it sounds) titled something like 'energy within the contraints of the environment'.
Not a single thing about windmills (or insulation), all solar and nuclear. Lots of talk about the US being sufficient forever in coal, oil, gas. Very nuclear heavy, examples like more people killed in Fukashima from the chemical plant explosion due to the tsunami than at the nuke station + projected cancers over 40 years. (didnt mention chernobyl at all!)
I kept getting the calculations using the price of natural gas vs everything else wrong, needless to say the questions were written a few years previously when gas was virtually being given away. Answer in each case was pretty much natural gas was cheaper than everything else, by a factor.

Interesting was the global energy uses charts. Never in human history has the use of a fuel declined when a new technology came in (biomass to coal, coal to oil, oil to gas etc). I always thought china was rolling out the coal power plants until their nukes came online. Going by that the coal will never go off in China.

7 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

That's the bit that gets glossed over: our US counterparts get paid 50-100% more for the same role. That's the model over there, work hard, work long hours, no job security, minimal vacaction...

I remember almost moving to Texas once, was initially going to be on my UK T+Cs with a per diem (which was more than my entire UK salary) with movement to US T+Cs after green card/visa. I saw the 6 days a year annual leave and thought fuck that!

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

My dad, from farming stock, only ever gave me one bit of advice.  That was to go out and sow my wild oats.  I guess enough said as the rest flowed from that!

Not a bad bit of advice, get it out the system whilst younger felines still pay you attention!