Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Just saw some bin men on the news who had been on strike because they were only offered a 7% pay rise, when they were asking for 20%. A compromise deal was then agreed with the council at 11%.

Was any compromised made with the council tax payers ?

[M S E Refugee]

20 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Liz appears to have had the special lobotomy that allows double think to appeal to the oiks. Which bookie has best odds of her being next prime minister?

What the hell are Europe and the UK going to do to reduce dependency on Russia, build more Windmills?

Putin must be laughing his Cock off at our pathetic leaders.

[BadAlchemy]

1 hour ago, Libspero said:

I’m catching up to the idea that sentiment here is primarily focused on traditional energy..  and that seems an excellent call.  But I presumed things like consumer essentials would be considered “value / recession proof stocks”.

I have absolutely no love for Unilever for exactly the reasons you give..  but I’m struggling differentiate between what makes a stock inflation proof vs a liability.  I would have expected consumer staples to be the former.  Can you help explain the prevailing logic?  I’m confused 

As well as companies with low debt or assets paid off altogether, a term people have used on this thread often is to look for the 'decomplex' investments. Meaning the first company in the chain... or the input commodity/resource. In an inflationary world that company can make their price increases fairly easily. The companies further along the chain are dependent on these decomplex resources and companies and also find it harder to pass on price increase to the next in line. In the disinflationary world we are leaving the opposite Is true, I believe.

[Democorruptcy]

15 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Was any compromised made with the council tax payers ?

No, they were just compromised and will have to pay more.

[HousePriceMania]

Another council losing the plot...

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60035312

"But, in what the GMB union is calling a "massive win", its members have now accepted an improved offer. This includes a minimum rise this year of 11% and a guarantee the pay rate will reach a minimum of £13.50 per hour in April 2023 - a 19% rise in total, the GMB says."

That ought to support the housing bubble....

Is this inflation narrative now deliberate to try and get some helicopter money into the pockets of people to keep their scam going ?

[Hancock]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I worked from 18 to 30 had 6 years off,i then worked from 36 to 49 with 7 years of that self employed,never earned much over £36k a year and retired at 49 pushing the lifetime allowance in my SIPP,house paid off etc,big ISA.Anyone can do it,you need to focus,learn how to invest (crucial) and get rid of expenses.Nobody gave me anything.Move north,rent a room,live frugal,invest everything,then buy a house up here,rent a room to a lodger,use that to finish off the mortgage,if your with someone claim your not,let her get bennies etc.Its not for everyone,some prefer to consumer through life and work until mid 60s,nothing wrong with that,but FIRE is easy for someone at say 55,50 do-able on average wages.Down south could be a different story,but i wouldnt live there for anything,lots of family there and hate it.

Thought i'd work out what ive actually put into my SIPP after reading this comment.

First money went in April 2nd 2018, and a total of £95,783.66 invested, which is now worth £163,000 thus a gain of 70.18%. 

If only you were as good at predicting house prices.

Only messing, hats off to Mr. DB for getting myself and seemingly dozens of others who read this topic, ready for what has came and went ... and what will come!

 

 

[M S E Refugee]

BioNTech and Moderna are getting a pasting today, down 13% and 8% respectively.

[Democorruptcy]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Another council losing the plot...

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60035312

"But, in what the GMB union is calling a "massive win", its members have now accepted an improved offer. This includes a minimum rise this year of 11% and a guarantee the pay rate will reach a minimum of £13.50 per hour in April 2023 - a 19% rise in total, the GMB says."

That ought to support the housing bubble....

Is this inflation narrative now deliberate to try and get some helicopter money into the pockets of people to keep their scam going ?

That's the "binmen" deal I referred to earlier on. They are refuse truck drivers.

[HousePriceMania]

While we've all been celebrating our oil gains, wont anyone think of the property sector investors....

 

                                    

[Chewing Grass]

7 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Another council losing the plot...

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60035312

"But, in what the GMB union is calling a "massive win", its members have now accepted an improved offer. This includes a minimum rise this year of 11% and a guarantee the pay rate will reach a minimum of £13.50 per hour in April 2023 - a 19% rise in total, the GMB says."

That ought to support the housing bubble....

Is this inflation narrative now deliberate to try and get some helicopter money into the pockets of people to keep their scam going ?

Some interesting snippets to be had in there, the UK sounds like the US as in:

the Office for National Statistics said that the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% - close to pre-pandemic levels.

whilst:

the percentage of "economically inactive" people - which is those neither looking for or available for work - rose to 21.3%.

Followed by

companies such as the insurer Phoenix Group are tailoring their job adverts to attract older applicants - by banning words such as "energetic" and "enthusiastic".

Phoenix Group, believes using "younger-age stereotypical words" could deter people aged over-50 from applying for a job.

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

That's the "binmen" deal I referred to earlier on. They are refuse truck drivers.

That's total madness.

 

I had a manager years ago who'd give us a 10% pay rise so he could get one too.

[Democorruptcy]

1 minute ago, Chewing Grass said:

Some interesting snippets to be had in there, the UK sounds like the US as in:

the Office for National Statistics said that the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% - close to pre-pandemic levels.

whilst:

the percentage of "economically inactive" people - which is those neither looking for or available for work - rose to 21.3%.

Followed by

companies such as the insurer Phoenix Group are tailoring their job adverts to attract older applicants - by banning words such as "energetic" and "enthusiastic".

Phoenix Group, believes using "younger-age stereotypical words" could deter people aged over-50 from applying for a job.

Very apt name for that firm, letting older people rise up from the ashes.

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

companies such as the insurer Phoenix Group are removing codewords from their job adverts intended to signal older applicants not to bother applying such as "energetic" and "enthusiastic" , because they are that hard up for applicants

Fixed

[Libspero]

22 hours ago, Wheeler said:

@BurntBread did an excellent summary of this thread (from both here and ToS). The focus was on the macro early on but so far everything has played out pretty much as predicted by @DurhamBorn so discussions have ranged a bit further.

 

Thanks...  Long read, but that helped a lot.  I understand exactly where you are all coming from now 

[HousePriceMania]

[Majorpain]

2 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

Liz appears to have had the special lobotomy that allows double think to appeal to the oiks. Which bookie has best odds of her being next prime minister?

Hand torches for the angry mob coz there ain't no gas in Liz'z Eco world.

[wherebee]

10 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Gazprom is almost looking 'cheap' compared to other oilies now - down 4% at $8.22 currently and a fair bit recently. I'm tempted to buy more to bring it up to match my Shell and BP holdings

entirely possible that the assets held in the west are frozen, which would include any dividends, etc.

it's a gamble, but one that could pay off very nicely.

[HousePriceMania]

Canada 5 Year bond above 2019 levels now. 

 

UK too

Im not sure what half this stuff means but Im thinking this is bad for anyone who's pay'd 20x local wages for a house in Northampton.

 

[wherebee]

9 hours ago, AWW said:

I used to run teams in London, New York and France.

The New Yorkers were paid about 50% more than the Londoners and French, but only got 10 days a year of annual leave. You could effectively sack the bad ones on a whim.

The Londoners got 25 days leave when they started, rising to 30 days after 5 years' service.  You could sack the bad ones, as long as you could prove to some HR drone that they were underperforming.

The French got, as far as I could work out (because it was completely opaque), around 40 days annual leave, because the French get additional days' leave if they work "long hours", which means anything more than 35 hours a week.  The bad ones were effectively unsackable.

great summary, and I agree.

 

I also ran teams in Asia.  HK, Singapore, you'd pay them whatever they'd accept, down to three bags of flour, and you could sack them at a whim.  however, they were much more likely to leave if the firm next door offered a free pen for joining.

[Errol]

Views on K+S?

I still have the share purchased at 8.6 Euro and 5.25 Euro. It's now nearly 19 Euro, but I was wondering if it was best to wait until it went parabolic before selling. I sold the Mosaic too early, so perhaps K+S is going much higher.

[CannonFodder]

5 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Canada 5 Year bond above 2019 levels now. 

 

UK too

Im not sure what half this stuff means but Im thinking this is bad for anyone who's pay'd 20x local wages for a house in Northampton.

 

What site is that please, i like the interface

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Libspero said:

I’m catching up to the idea that sentiment here is primarily focused on traditional energy..  and that seems an excellent call.  But I presumed things like consumer essentials would be considered “value / recession proof stocks”.

I have absolutely no love for Unilever for exactly the reasons you give..  but I’m struggling differentiate between what makes a stock inflation proof vs a liability.  I would have expected consumer staples to be the former.  Can you help explain the prevailing logic?  I’m confused 

Take a tin of beans.In a dis-inflation period (82 until 2020) The farmer gets cheaper labour,cheaper potash cheaper tractors,the lorry taking the beans to the factory gets cheaper everything,the factory making the tins gets cheaper,making the paper,then the supermarket gets all that cheaper product,but keeps its prices higher.It catches the profit at the end of the chain.

In an inflation the potash company and the fuel company tell the farmer its 100% more,he passes on,the factory then sees everything shooting up so tries to pass on the inflation.Tesco say 20p more?,nope we will do 10p,factory margin crushed,and sales fall double hit.They say to potash company but youl sell 20% less,they say who gives a fuck when we getting 100% more price.40 years favoured the ends of the chains as disinflation removed costs all along the supply,re-flation does the opposite,it inflates costs all along the chain destroying margins as it goes.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Canada 5 Year bond above 2019 levels now. 

 

UK too

Im not sure what half this stuff means but Im thinking this is bad for anyone who's pay'd 20x local wages for a house in Northampton.

 

Here is hoping, from not raising rates until 2023 its now all of a sudden 4/5 predicted hikes his year ... wonder if they'll go beyond that and put some 0.5% ers in there.

A 0.25% rise next week will do though.

 

[JREWING]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

great summary, and I agree.

 

I also ran teams in Asia.  HK, Singapore, you'd pay them whatever they'd accept, down to three bags of flour, and you could sack them at a whim.  however, they were much more likely to leave if the firm next door offered a free pen for joining.

@WICAO

I jumped ship on BP today. £150k at 2.52 sold at 3.62. Bought back in at 3.2 sold at 3.98 today. I'm coming back to Oz. I'm a citizen so makes life easy. Got a big chunk of Ozzy dollars now. Guys can you access HL portal in Australia. Or does the Australian IP address get blocked by the HL portal. Can I trade while in Australia via the HL portal. Just thinking out load.

@WICAO what visa you on? Business investment. I'm thinking of Fremantle in Perth. 

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, JREWING said:

@WICAO

I jumped ship on BP today. £150k at 2.52 sold at 3.62. Bought back in at 3.2 sold at 3.98 today. I'm coming back to Oz. I'm a citizen so makes life easy. Got a big chunk of Ozzy dollars now. Guys can you access HL portal in Australia. Or does the Australian IP address get blocked by the HL portal. Can I trade while in Australia via the HL portal. Just thinking out load.

@WICAO what visa you on? Business investment. I'm thinking of Fremantle in Perth. 

be aware that WA (Perth) is about to go full on communist re vaxx mandates.  You'll be locked out of almost everything unless you get jabbed every time sneakers tells you to.  The WA health system also WILL collapse once COVID gets there - it's been run into the ground for years, and it's going to be a shitshow.

At the moment, in terms of freedom NSW, SA, and Queensland are a bit better (but not by much).  Vic is equally mental as WA but has more resistance growing, politically and otherwise.

If I had the cash as a new entrant, I'd buy somewhere away from the cities and see which ones burn and which ones do not.