Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Lightscribe]

38 minutes ago, Loki said:

Wonder if the NASDAQ 100 has bottomed, looking like a nice little pre-close rally going on, the composite smashed down through 14000 like it wasn't even there

 

Just think all of the trillions of speculative QE money that’s been locked up in the FAANGs since 2008 = volatility. It’s now looking for a home, most don’t know (long forgotten) that that is in P/E ratios and dividend stocks. Many will plow back in with the same result. Inflation has ended that cycle but they will try to catch the falling knife with big swings in momentum.

That’s why I previously said it would take months of dead cat bounces to reach the bottom in the BK.

That kind surplus if heading directly into the economy cashing out instead (as well as crypto) would cause bank runs and hyperinflation. That’s not going to happen and won’t be allowed to happen. We’ll have lower lows and spikes all the way down.

Hunters melt up already happened in crypto and NFTs as I said last year.

[CannonFodder]

His hunter call is all in on the fed going dove.

He may be right but they may go hawk instead 

Most likely they will sit on their hands and be vigilant which is more dovish than expected but i dont think that is enough for a melt up.

I could see them increasing rates a token amount and doing something to push reverse repos back to circulation to counterbalance.

Perhaps powell will opt for less is more, take the podium and just say' watch and learn bitches' and leave it at that for a few months.

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

His hunter call is all in on the fed going dove.

He may be right but they may go hawk instead 

Most likely they will sit on their hands and be vigilant which is more dovish than expected but i dont think that is enough for a melt up.

I could see them increasing rates a token amount and doing something to push reverse repos back to circulation to counterbalance.

Perhaps powell will opt for less is more, take the podium and just say' watch and learn bitches' and leave it at that for a few months.

Not exactly technical/quantifiable but I also think he puts more weight on sentiment and everyone is too bearish/scared for there to be a crash now (Contrarian )

[Axeman123]

21 minutes ago, Loki said:

Not exactly technical/quantifiable but I also think he puts more weight on sentiment and everyone is too bearish/scared for there to be a crash now (Contrarian )

When you look at the swing in a matter of weeks it does seem rather extreme.

As @Lightscribe pretty much says bear markets tend to grind down on a series of false bottoms and cruel suckers' rallies, forming a series of lower lows. On the well known bubble phase diagram despair is at the bottom, not immediately after the peak.

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

When you look at the swing in a matter of weeks it does seem rather extreme.

As @Lightscribe pretty much says bear markets tend to grind down on a series of false bottoms and cruel suckers' rallies, forming a series of lower lows. On the well known bubble phase diagram despair is at the bottom, not immediately after the peak.

I'm just YOLOing the wall of worry 

 

(This is not trading advice)

 

Looks like the NASDAQ just went on a round trip today

[Jesus Wept]

10 minutes ago, Loki said:

I'm just YOLOing the wall of worry 

 

(This is not trading advice)

 

Looks like the NASDAQ just went on a round trip today

 

For the day….

Nasdaq positive

Dow positive

S&P positive

Just getting rid of weak hands to allow ‘our Dave’s melt up’ …… 

 

6% gains to be made if you bought the index at the low point today..  

Madness 

 

 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Jesus Wept said:

 

For the day….

Nasdaq positive

Dow positive

S&P positive

Just getting rid of weak hand to allow ‘our Dave’s melt up’ …… 

 

 

 

[CannonFodder]

I hear what you say that as worry and despair increases then less likely to go further as closest to the bottom.

Is this always true though

if worry and despair indicate a bottom, should we go long on boris johnson.s leadership.

Did the crash start last autumn, most fangs down 20 percent, netflix almost 50, tesla amazon ebay 25 %. There is huge rotation happening as sp500 not much changed.

a bit like one doesnt know one is in recession till 6 months later, is that where we are now? I dont know, 

[sancho panza]

On 22/01/2022 at 08:07, JimmyTheBruce said:

Boarding school Sancho!? And there was me thinking you were a salt of the earth type 

I went to an inner city comprehensive in Leicester till I was 16,still pals with a lot of thsoe lads.Baording school 16-18 was crap.Went as my Dad moved abroad for work.Looking back in a first world way,it was the worst type of school at teh worst time for me.Don't speak to anyone from that time and I keep friends from all sections of my life except that one which tells me a lot.

Some of the richest and most unhappiest people I've met in my life.

I wouldn't dream of sending any of the little panza's given the scale of the bullying,there's a reason these people are running the country and thats that they're genereally the biggest psychopaths in it.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Why all the PANIC Folks?!

 

DOW was down over -1000 points at mid-day now RECOVERED UP by 100 points!

 

Classic correction /shake-out...Nothing to worry about folks!

 

ffs, even shitcoin is up lol!

 

Grab ya pop-corn and watch the incoming 30-40% "Parabolic Melt-UP" over the next few weeks with uncle Davey!

 

 

 

 

 

[Loki]

@Yellow_Reduced_Stickerwhat a day though

[HousePriceMania]

45 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

 

For the day….

Nasdaq positive

Dow positive

S&P positive

Just getting rid of weak hands to allow ‘our Dave’s melt up’ …… 

 

6% gains to be made if you bought the index at the low point today..  

Madness 

 

 

That is proper madness. It's like the bankers sending the FED a warning.

 

[Lightscribe]

Zoom out 

1 month

6 months

5 years

22 years 

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Zoom out 

1 month

6 months

22 years 

 

She'll be reet

[Axeman123]

48 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

For the day….

Nasdaq positive

Dow positive

S&P positive

TLT negative as well.

Some regret on my part for not pulling the trigger on the S&P today, although if we have seen the bottom I would expect a second chance before we start the move up.

[Loki]

2 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

Leveraged x3 

16% rise today. 

Balls of steel to ride this beast……

 

* Edited to add - my balls are not made of steel…… I wish they were. Whenever I have shorted the market I got destroyed. Too risky for me. @Lokigave me a cheers 🍻 - I need it to drown my sorrows at not shorting. 

How you holding up bro? 

[Eventually Right]

Ok, that’s pretty funny…

[Sidd]

Low and behold.. is this even a surprise

 

BBC News - Conservative minister resigns in anger over Covid fraud
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60117513

 

[Tingles]

44 minutes ago, Loki said:

@Yellow_Reduced_Stickerwhat a day though

Indeed. 

I have nothing but love, respect and appreciation for this thread - it's Dons, it's characters, and above all the most wonderful breadth and depth of knowledge and perspective.

But it's on days like this when the thread adds pure entertainment and comedy value to all of the above.  I love days like today (and the last couple of trading days).  People stating their cases, people making moves, the conjecture, the "Will it? Won't it?, the confidence, the trepidation, and the obligatory BTC/crypto bashing, etc.

And the best thing is that none of us know what's going to happen.  Except DB, of course.

Exciting times, good people, exciting times

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Tingles said:

Indeed. 

I have nothing but love, respect and appreciation for this thread - it's Dons, it's characters, and above all the most wonderful breadth and depth of knowledge and perspective.

But it's on days like this when the thread adds pure entertainment and comedy value to all of the above.  I love days like today (and the last couple of trading days).  People stating there cases, people making moves, the conjecture, the "Will it? Won't it?, the confidence, the trepidation, and the obligatory BTC/crypto bashing, etc.

And the best thing is that none of us know what's going to happen.  Except DB, of course.

Exciting times, good people, exciting times

Yup, the buzz.   The sort of days where the "Good old days" of forums are made  although I try not to post too much non-macro stuff here, I like the crowd in this thread

[leonardratso]

course it will probably just slingshot up and down eh, weve been here before havent we? didnt we have this kind of action in gold/pms and maybe uranium prior to covid? im definately getting deja vu here.

[Hancock]

35 minutes ago, Sidd said:

Low and behold.. is this even a surprise

 

BBC News - Conservative minister resigns in anger over Covid fraud
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60117513

 

Did you know he was the only Tory in Parliament or the House of Lords who didn't get a piece of the action, thats more than enough to make him resign.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

TLT negative as well.

Some regret on my part for not pulling the trigger on the S&P today, although if we have seen the bottom I would expect a second chance before we start the move up.

Tlt is usd, Ibtl is the gbp of tlt and it's up 1.58%. 

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

Tlt is usd, Ibtl is the gbp of tlt and it's up 1.58%. 

Isn't that just because the UK market closed before lunchtime west coast US time, when TLT was still also up for the day?

Genuine question.

[Harley]

24 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Did you know he was the only Tory in Parliament or the House of Lords who didn't get a piece of the action, thats more than enough to make him resign.

They say the trucker shortage was due to foreign truckers doing a bunk back home with our money.