Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Jesus. Repsol, BP and Shell on a mission this morning

The warm,nurturing smell of insto money coming to line the pockets of the average unwashed basement dweller.

@Cattle Prod not a hint a decent sustained buyable pullback on the weeklies since end Nov on Brent,this is moonshot stuff potentially.How high will it go before the recession starts?

[sancho panza]

18 minutes ago, Loki said:

Tempted to topslice my BP...

The big boys are jsut coming on board for the ride it looks.Brent was $85 in Spet 18 and BP was £5.80 or so...

dyor natch,I could be massively worng

[planit]

21 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

Stock market are elevated on the back -up until now- of overhyped property/service sector stocks in the UK and overhyped Big Tech in the US.Market breadth has been deteriorating for some time but as long as the headline figures are up,it's up.

 

If you were 'lucky' enough to buy into the FTSE100 in Nov 1999 you would currently be 7.8% up in 22 years!

BP is 34% down from it's 2018 peak with oil prices currently higher and positive outlook from most producers.

There is a long way up potential for a lot of companies. I think the DH 30% upside could happen without US tech taking part (apart from MS GOOG AAPL recovering as they have huge profits used for buybacks).

 

The fact that so many people everywhere I look have sold out in expectation of a BK says to me this is not it.

(I like MeetKevin on YouTube for a US tech perspective and he just sold everything and took a 5% short position on US equities).

 

I might be wrong and I really hope that I am not as I am 105% all in. 

Please do not use anything I say as investment advice, I take more risk than 98% of people on here.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Why Loki why? The big boys are jsut coming on board for the ride.Brent was $85 in Spet 18 and BP was £5.80 or so...

 remember David Hunter posting about energy falling back from here for the short remainder of this cycle but maybe I'll leave it a bit longer now you post that 

[JREWING]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

Why Loki why? The big boys are jsut coming on board for the ride.Brent was $85 in Spet 18 and BP was £5.80 or so...

Yep but the divvy was double. This surely effects growth potential.

[Straingone]

19 minutes ago, Loki said:

Tempted to topslice my BP...

Did this with Centrica and BP today, chucked it all into Fres.

[Harley]

4 hours ago, planit said:

There is no reason to make war with so many good people and the services are stretched as it is. It would be a huge political own goal to go through with it.

With the tsunami of a growing (possibly exploding) backlog they'll need a very confident, even ruthless, plan B to enable them to maintain their current position. 

4 hours ago, planit said:

There is so much negative sentiment around at the moment that I don't see how the market can crash from this sentiment. DH meltup still on I feel.

Oh I don't know, I've had bad things just get a lot worse....tick tock, tick tock.....

Mr Market ain't so different at times.  But yep, this isn't the hill walk of a BK. 

[AWW]

13 minutes ago, planit said:

If you were 'lucky' enough to buy into the FTSE100 in Nov 1999 you would currently be 7.8% up in 22 years!

With divis + reinvestment, you'd be 150% up.

Which is still not great.

[Democorruptcy]

7 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Why Loki why? The big boys are jsut coming on board for the ride.Brent was $85 in Spet 18 and BP was £5.80 or so...

What does that mean?

[AWW]

15 minutes ago, planit said:

The fact that so many people everywhere I look have sold out in expectation of a BK says to me this is not it.

...and the scramble to get back in when it became apparent that the last few days weren't "it" says the same to me.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, AWW said:

...and the scramble to get back in when it became apparent that the last few days weren't "it" says the same to me.

FOMO YOLO 

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, Straingone said:

Did this with Centrica and BP today, chucked it all into Fres.

OMG!! Somebody has just top sliced Centrica!!

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

OMG!! Somebody has just top sliced Centrica!!

When will people learn

 

 

[Straingone]

4 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

OMG!! Somebody has just top sliced Centrica!!

I was a bit late to the Scottish play.

[Libspero]

3 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

What does that mean?

Not sure if that question is literal or rhetorical..   but I think he's saying there's still up-side.

The threat being the move away from FF and reduced market.    But,   I'm bullish,   or at least,  I think it's a safe-ish place to park for a while because people are going back to work,  demand is increasing..  and there probably hasn't been much investment in supply because everyone has been focussing on renewables..  which have since crashed pretty badly.

If supply is  restricted and demand is increasing..  I figure it can't be a terrible short-medium term hold.   

To me the wider market feels like it's reached a bull trap,   but I'm certainly no expert at reading the tea leaves.

[WICAO]

On 25/01/2022 at 10:48, WICAO said:

The last couple of weeks have been an absolute blood bath for me.  Measured in AUD my total portfolio is now back to where it was at the end of October 2021...

On a more serious note I am watching the falls as it might give me a chance to sell down some assets held in Aus taxed UK wrappers and move them into something similar in my Australian Superannuation with no capital gains to be paid.  Need another few percent yet though.  

Well I made a mess of that.  Aim was to not be out of the market for any length of time.  Sold the assets in the UK wrappers no problem.  Will move that cash to Aus once settled etc.  So far so good.  Then with cash here in Aus at the ready I immediately made a deposit into my Aus Superannuation.  Morning comes around and nothing.  Then I realise today is Australia Invasion Day and everyone is barbequing rather than buying assets for me.  

Lesson learned.  Check Australian bank holidays in advance of transacting reasonable sums of money.

It's cost me some £'s but small fry in the scheme of things and it will be eventually recovered with saved taxes. 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Hiya girls & boys, looks like my tea leaves prediction is wrong for today, (i thought there would be a dip) anyway looks like @MrXxxx won my YRS packet of dodgy pork chops!

 

Still bet YOU guys are feeling MEGA chirpy today with the FTSE 100 ZOOMING UP 130 points so far?

 

 

LOVELY to see uncle Dave's incoming 30-40% "Parabolic Melt-UP" ...progress coming along very nicely!

I see Fresnillo shares lost their shine today, falling as much as 12% down to £6.89 at one point! , after the company revealed COVID-related absences weighed on production in its final quarter?

 

I'm thinking of buying today or should I wait? Nah ...ain't saying cos some on here will say it will be the kiss of death if i buy! lol!

 

 

[Hancock]

40 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

The warm,nurturing smell of insto money coming to line the pockets of the average unwashed basement dweller.

@Cattle Prod not a hint a decent sustained buyable pullback on the weeklies since end Nov on Brent,this is moonshot stuff potentially.How high will it go before the recession starts?

 

Could be a sign that recession is close.

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Could be a sign that recession is close.

Covid QE and bounce back shit brought forward a lot of physical spending after the effect of low interest rates since 2008 wore off.

That however has lasted 1/6th the amount of time and cost a fortune. Once the small builders run out of 'home improvements' to do its over.

What are builders merchants stock levels like, we already know steel stockholders are rammed with ferrous metal.

[Democorruptcy]

30 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

When will people learn

 

 

Surely it's only fair to call Centrica by it's proper name now it's officially been top sliced? The Scottish play, Macbeth etc is confusing for the untraumatised newbies.

[sancho panza]

49 minutes ago, planit said:

If you were 'lucky' enough to buy into the FTSE100 in Nov 1999 you would currently be 7.8% up in 22 years!

BP is 34% down from it's 2018 peak with oil prices currently higher and positive outlook from most producers.

There is a long way up potential for a lot of companies. I think the DH 30% upside could happen without US tech taking part (apart from MS GOOG AAPL recovering as they have huge profits used for buybacks).

 

The fact that so many people everywhere I look have sold out in expectation of a BK says to me this is not it.

(I like MeetKevin on YouTube for a US tech perspective and he just sold everything and took a 5% short position on US equities).

 

I might be wrong and I really hope that I am not as I am 105% all in. 

Please do not use anything I say as investment advice, I take more risk than 98% of people on here.

Point is as well that a lot of stocks in the FTSE 100 in 99 aren't in it any more.So the situation if you'd boguth the stocks would be much worse.Your FTSE ETF would have performed ok but then you'd be losing 0.5% or 1/6th of your compound growth.

 

I think it's a unlikely Big Tech will take part in the melt up aside from one or two of them maybe eg AAPL/MSFT with what you might call real earnings.

Big oil will drive it higher I reckon.Heiken Ashi monthlies TM @Harley

Decl:long big oil

 

47 minutes ago, JREWING said:

Yep but the divvy was double. This surely effects growth potential.

But profits were pretty similar nominal and the outlook for demand is strong and supply weak.

If anything a lower divi means more buybacks and higher earnings growth.

34 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

What does that mean?

ceteris paribus(my favourtie neo classical phrase) ie all other thingsbeing equal,they're undervalued compared to Sept 2018

[sancho panza]

4 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Surely it's only fair to call Centrica by it's proper name now it's officially been top sliced? The Scottish play, Macbeth etc is confusing for the untraumatised newbies.

This may be news to you DM but there are some of us still deep in the hole on that one (flashbacks etc) and I reserve the right to remain superstitious about the scottish play until about £1.30 or so,poss £1.20 depending how much scrip we took while they ahd a divi

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Last allocation (big chunk) of FRES at 700 all in now. Lets go Brandon

You must have been a bit sharp there.  Finger on the button or a limit order with a good executor?

I'm waiting on the techs to add but you could at least profit from a probable gap down fill.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Jesus. Repsol, BP and Shell on a mission this morning

What's the love for REP except as a trade?  It's been stairstepping down for-e-ver.  

[VeryMeanReversion]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Last allocation (big chunk) of FRES at 700 all in now. Lets go Brandon

SIPP went up nearly 10k today so spent it all on FRES at 708.

Bulk of SIPP is still oil, miners, metals, fags with a few utilities and some regrets (including CNA).

Now dumping 57.5% of gross salary into SIPP. #WICAO would approve.