Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Castlevania said:

They’re the company Bloomberg did a hit piece on?

Thye're intriguing because they're  a company with oil&gas resources in the US but they're listed in teh UK.For me that's a warning sign of sorts.Strange.

2 hours ago, Heart's Ease said:

 

Concentrates my mind!

Thanks again to all thread contributors and OP DB. 

My humble RDSB ISA allocation is touching Don Bradman's batting average in its gains.  Quite the run from 897p. 

The really importnant point there that the guy doesn't hightlight is that the BoE pension is 90% invested in index linked Gilts/Corporate bonds and this has ben the case for as long as I've been looking(some years now)

So BoE has been saying for years inflation no problem,even until recently that inflation was transitory,but look how they're stacked.......follow the money etc

[Festival]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Covered up-thread.  I second using DCF in Excel, but then further analysing the results from flexing the underlying assumptions on rates, etc.  These rules of thumb are BS by comparison.

A real lightbulb moment for me.  It also provided other info like how much risk v rate of return I needed to take.  99% of people just don't go there or guess.  Crazy.

I might even work an example if anyone is interested and I have some rare spare time.

Thank-you Harley. Would be interested in the worked example if and when you have time

[sancho panza]

as per recent discussion re airlines getting busier

Sadly cant get  tweets 2+3 fully loaded but the point remains

 

Meanwhile,the first signs of cold showers and the Greenies are melting away.

[Festival]

45 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I want everyone on this thread knocking on the door of the lifetime allowance by the time we are finished,and if they only have low capital well on the way to an amount they can be happy on.A lot depends on when they retire.I needed a lot because iv gone at 49 and 60% of assets outside of house and PMs are in my SIPP and i cant access for another 5 years so my income is coming off 40% of my assets at the moment,but thats fine.

If someone wants to go at 55 i think £200k in SIPP £100k ISA are do-able,but £250k SIPP £130k ISA better.Knack then is use tax allowance plus tax free cash uplift (16700 tax free a year) and re-invest divs in ISA etc.Lots of variables.

 

Converting the SIPP divs into ISAs is something I need to focus more on - its a great way to ensure you keep your investment levels and over time returns up but have tax free growth and anytime access. Thanks DB

[AlfredTheLittle]

13 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

as per recent discussion re airlines getting busier

I'm not too sure what they include, but the 'total flights' data has caught up with 2019

 

 

[sancho panza]

5 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

I'm not too sure what they include, but the 'total flights' data has caught up with 2019

 

 

Does that mena that otehr coutnries around the world eg CHina are flying a lot more than we currently are in Europe.?

[23rdian]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I want everyone on this thread knocking on the door of the lifetime allowance by the time we are finished,and if they only have low capital well on the way to an amount they can be happy on.A lot depends on when they retire.I needed a lot because iv gone at 49 and 60% of assets outside of house and PMs are in my SIPP and i cant access for another 5 years so my income is coming off 40% of my assets at the moment,but thats fine.

If someone wants to go at 55 i think £200k in SIPP £100k ISA are do-able,but £250k SIPP £130k ISA better.Knack then is use tax allowance plus tax free cash uplift (16700 tax free a year) and re-invest divs in ISA etc.Lots of variables.

 

Thanks Durham,

But I am a bit confused by all this SIPP stuff, don't have one. Have a fair bit in ISAs but the only pension I have is a DC one through work (20 years contributions)

Should I have had one in addition to the work pension? 

I'm in my early 40s, now working part time so perhaps it's not worth it?

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Thye're intriguing because they're  a company with oil&gas resources in the US but they're listed in teh UK.For me that's a warning sign of sorts.Strange.

I thought that was strange too. I assumed they were on AIM to get around a load of disclosure requirements etc but whilst they originally listed on AIM they’ve since moved to the main market.

[ThoughtCriminal]

4 hours ago, Starsend said:

15/20 miles is pretty damn impressive at 67. I'll be delighted if I can still do that when I get to that age.

I go walk stretches of the Camino Santiago every year. I do up to 20 miles a day, every day, up and down hills carrying weight. Hell of a work out, you can feel your fitness levels escalate rapidly. Fecking hard though, most people have no idea how hard long distance walking is day after day. Last time I went I was the only one out of four who could complete it, everybody else out due to injury, pussies  I'm early fifties now, hope to keep doing it as long as I can.

I did the camino broke my foot and had to drop out 20 miles past pamplona. 

 

Best thing i ever did in my life though, never felt so free. 

[AlfredTheLittle]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Does that mena that otehr coutnries around the world eg CHina are flying a lot more than we currently are in Europe.?

They classify them as follows: 

Commercial flights

Commercial passenger flights + cargo flights + charter flights + some business jet flights.

Total flights

Commercial flights above + rest of business jet flights + private flights + gliders + most helicopter flights + most ambulance flights + government flights + some military flights + drones

 

So I would guess business and private flights have gone up because less commercial flights are available, or to avoid some of the covid restrictions. 

[janch]

I agree with the comments by various people above that the figures needed to live a comfortable retirement are way ahead of what I personally need.  I think they could be a bit of a hangover from the past when people were really scared about how they would survive in old age.  The state pension was a pittance.  Now it's livable on (just) unless you want to go on expensive holidays/cruises etc. 

The time I needed the most was when I was bringing up my three children.  My ex-husband (delightful fellow) once told me my children were my very expensive hobby. 

Old age is a doddle by comparison even allowing for giving some to children and grandchildren.  I got so used to frugal living whilst raising my children on my own that it's ingrained now.  I certainly don't want to go on a cruise (the very thought fills me with dread).  As several have said priorities change.  I wasn't ever the type of person who was at all interested in the keeping up with the Jones' lifestyle but many are brainwashed into the consumerist lifestyle which shows no sign of diminishing to any extent with TikTok etc.  One can only hope they come to their senses at some point or they may get dragged kicking and screaming when they can't pay their leccy bill unless they give up their expensive trip to the nailbar.

The other biggie people save up big pots for is in case they need care in their dotage.  State provision by all accounts isn't up to much so people reckon on having enough to pay privately.  I imagine costs will go through the roof.  I'm planning on keeping healthy and then dropping dead or dying in my sleep one night

 

[JMD]

4 hours ago, feed said:

I accept there is a north/south divide going on, as shown in those graphs. But what is the significant underlying determining factor operating here? I mean the life expectancy disparity is not due to genetics is it, so are the causes things like type of job/long term unemployment/diet/smoking? Or just combination of all the above and the north has for many decades suffered much more from these effects?                                                     I ask because I think it is lazy to present stats without proper context. But that's MSM for you i guess, causing more harm, division, confusion, etc, the more they write.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

Covered up-thread.  I second using DCF in Excel, but then further analysing the results from flexing the underlying assumptions on rates, etc.  These rules of thumb are BS by comparison.

A real lightbulb moment for me.  It also provided other info like how much risk v rate of return I needed to take.  99% of people just don't go there or guess.  Crazy.

I might even work an example if anyone is interested and I have some rare spare time.

Really would like to see a worked example Harley. Some of your deep-dive commentary would also be good, if you were able to share... You see at present I am buying divi payers, energy etc, and am hoping this will allow me to extract the 'classic 4%' from my sipp whilst also allowing the capitol to grow slightly over time. Tbh it looks (far too?) easy to achieve this at the moment, and I'm sure next cycle will throw up a whole new set of investment type problems to contend with. So for example, any insights into reducing risk for buy/hold type stocks, etc, would be great to hear more about. As you say, the 'rule of thumb' type information provided on web sites, etc, are not that relevant for most people.

[feed]

27 minutes ago, JMD said:

I accept there is a north/south divide going on, as shown in those graphs. But what is the significant underlying determining factor operating here? I mean the life expectancy disparity is not due to genetics is it, so are the causes things like type of job/long term unemployment/diet/smoking? Or just combination of all the above and the north has for many decades suffered much more from these effects?

All of the above and more i expect.  But the most significant factor on your life expectancy, is your family history. If you don't have at least one parent/grandparent that made it past 80+, then chances are you're not going to make it.

And with the general decline in standard of living, nutrition and medical care coming, i wouldn't be surprised if life expectancy for your average male falls to around 75 in around 20 years.

Personally, i don't have a male family member that's made it past 70.  Building a plan for 85+ seems redundant

It's later than you think.

 

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, feed said:

It's later than you think.

Enjoy yourself, the years go by as quickly as you wink.

My Father, Grandad and great Grandad all lived to mid 80s to 90. It seems an awful lot to have to plan for.

[JMD]

14 minutes ago, feed said:

All of the above and more i expect.  But the most significant factor on your life expectancy, is your family history. If you don't have at least one parent/grandparent that made it past 80+, then chances are you're not going to make it.

And with the general decline in standard of living, nutrition and medical care coming, i wouldn't be surprised if life expectancy for your average male falls to around 75 in around 20 years.

Personally, i don't have a male family member that's made it past 70.  Building a plan for 85+ seems redundant

It's later than you think.

 

Thanks. So for health conscious types, in effect it is mostly about the genetics I suppose? They have been talking about those pesky telomeres for years, just need to hurry up and invent a non-shortening variety!!!        ...In the mean time the useless MSM can bang on about 'nebulous' political health divides etc.

[feed]

7 minutes ago, JMD said:

They have been talking about those pesky telomeres for years, just need to hurry up and invent a non-shortening variety!!!  

Sure, but it's only going to available to your average tech billionaire.   

 

[janch]

Businesses going bust.........this is the start:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58932615

Time to go long on insolvency practitioners?

[JMD]

On 15/10/2021 at 16:16, kibuc said:

A not-quite-off-topic: Glencore announced sale of their Bolivian zinc assets (both producing as well as exploration) to Santacruz for $20m upfront and then $22.5m annually for 4 years, for a total of $110m. There are various considerations, including the necessary financing as well as 1.5% royalty included in the deal, but on the high level Santacruz will be producing some 13moz of silver equivalent (or 50% of First Majestic's production) while sporting a $100m market cap. Not an advice, and shares are currently halted since Monday anyway

 

Thanks Kibuc. Is there any indication how long Santa Cruz shares will be halted for? I already do own some, but would like to get more as the risk/reward appears to have now 'improved some' (understatement perhaps!!). But getting in before the price ramps up might be biggest obstacle here maybe?

[JMD]

13 minutes ago, feed said:

Sure, but it's only going to available to your average tech billionaire.   

 

The 'sales/marketing' net would have to be thrown wider than that surely? Very interesting topic, but risk of thread derailment I think.

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, invalid said:

 

Sounds like he was an 'entrepreneur'.

Businesses importing and selling stuff from China don't really add much value to the UK - no offense to DB of course. There is money to be made (or rather there was) so I don't blame people for doing it but looking at the bigger and longer term picture it adds very little.

Like these posh twats who start up a business selling fancy eco vegan pure foods, or ethical water "No permeable rocks were harmed when we extracted our water".

These type businesses are looking to be a thing of the past.

 

It's all very different to times of old. Businesses would genuinely innovate (designing a fancy label for a plastic bottle of water is not innovative) and invest - new ways of doing things, designing new machines, financial investment and what I would call a real investment in people by training them in skilled jobs.

 

I used to be a lead technician on multi billion pound pharm products including Zantac,Zinacef,Fortum etc and was well paid.I made more selling shit from China and working 1hr a day instead of 12 hour nightshifts.That was the state of our country once those idiots in Labour got in.I was and still am turning down jobs for productive industry because its not worth my time.Since they got in the government has done everything to reward the lazy,the criminal,the useless,you name it.Its the reason inflation is going to rip right across the economy now.Its a sad thing to saw,but im glad the latest victim of their nut job policies was someone who supported those policies and not a young girl going to a concert in Manchester.

[kibuc]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Thanks Kibuc. Is there any indication how long Santa Cruz shares will be halted for? I already do own some, but would like to get more as the risk/reward appears to have now 'improved some' (understatement perhaps!!). But getting in before the price ramps up might be biggest obstacle here maybe?

No idea, but chances are it will stay halted until the financing is announced. The deal will take about 3 months to complete, according to the PR. 

Regarding risk/reward, it's worth remembering it's Bolivia, which I consider a place to avoid for mining investors - it's the only reason I'm not balls deep in Eloro with their phenomenal Iska Iska project. Some of those newly acquired mines are held in JV with Bolivian govt so perhaps thats adds a bit of protection, but at the moment I'm thinking about only holding until it gets re-rated and then taking profits. 

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, janch said:

Businesses going bust.........this is the start:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58932615

Time to go long on insolvency practitioners?

The time to buy insolvency practitioners are when the economy is booming. Sell when you’re in a recession. I don’t see a huge amount of upside versus the current share prices.

[Hancock]

18 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

The time to buy insolvency practitioners are when the economy is booming. Sell when you’re in a recession. I don’t see a huge amount of upside versus the current share prices.

Most these bankruptcies will be people closing the business after milking all those govt loans and grants.

[Hancock]

3 hours ago, janch said:

Businesses going bust.........this is the start:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58932615

Time to go long on insolvency practitioners?

Jesus fucken Christ, i've just "done the math", but it seems no one at the Treasury has bothered.

£400 billion in support / 2 million jobs saved = £200,000 per job.