Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Chewing Grass]

13 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Jesus fucken Christ, i've just "done the math", but it seems no one at the Treasury has bothered.

£400 billion in support / 2 million jobs saved = £200,000 per job.

Yeah but they could have become fucken lorry drivers, that's what you get when commies fuck about with free market economics.

[Hancock]

53 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Yeah but the could have become fucken lorry drivers, that's what you get when commies fuck about with free market economics.

To be fair, we never had free market economics for the commies to fuck about with in the first place.

Last time free market economics was officially spotted was in the early 90s, when we had the last recession. NuLabour giving the Bank of England independence from govt, and placing them in the back pocket of our corrupt banking sector has seen to that.

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, janch said:

Businesses going bust.........this is the start:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58932615

Time to go long on insolvency practitioners?

It's almost as if the lockdown monster wants paying...This looks like a perfect storm for small businesses.And that's before they bring in covid passports which could be the final nail for a lot of marginal hospitality businesses.

 

A lot of the support for small businesses got funnelled straight to landlords/rates bills.

'The Bank of England earlier this month said one third of small businesses in the UK are classed as "highly indebted", where their debt levels are more than 10 times their cash balances.

Matt Richards, a restructuring and insolvencies partner at accountants Azets, said he expected the upward trend of insolvencies to continue "now that the government has withdrawn most of its corporate support measures".

"The additional pressures facing businesses today with higher inflation, staff shortages, increasing energy prices and the need to repay Covid-incurred debt, is likely to increase the number of insolvencies over the next 12 months." '

[Hancock]

27 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

It's almost as if the lockdown monster wants paying...This looks like a perfect storm for small businesses.And that's before they bring in covid passports which could be the final nail for a lot of marginal hospitality businesses.

100%, ive just been to mainland Europe, and its "show me your papers" to get in a bar or restaurant ... they scan my NHS printout, and my name comes up on their system!  Not a chance will i ever visit a bar or restaurant in England if i've to "show my papers", for some garlic bread.

[Hancock]

The shipping industry must be investigated over allegations of “cartel-like” behaviour and soaring fees that are causing shortages and fuelling inflation, manufacturers have demanded.

MakeUK, the trade body which represents Britain’s industrial base, is calling on the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to examine whether the rocketing cost of transporting goods can be justified.

It is joining an earlier demand from the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) for an investigation as the two groups’ 100,000 member companies buckle under surging prices for seaborne transport.

The organisations are preparing an open letter to the CMA appealing for “urgent action” to investigate whether charges are being coordinated or inflated by shipping companies, with many of their smaller members especially strained by higher costs.

Freight prices have jumped over the past year as disruption at ports increases already-fierce competition for space on ships.

The average price being paid for a 40-foot container from East Asia to Europe is $15,000 (£10,900) according to Freightos, a website which tracks the shipping market – about 10 times higher than at the onset of the pandemic.

There have been allegations that big shipping companies are engaged in cartel-like behaviour, with claims they have taken advantage of the race to secure shipping slots to drive prices higher.

A report from shipping consultancy Drewry forecast that container shipping companies will between them make “surreal” profits of $150bn this year – as much as the previous 20 years combined.

Companies are feeling the squeeze, with product shortages and warnings that shoppers should get ahead on purchases for the holiday season.

A draft of the letter to the regulator from MakeUK and the BCC, seen by The Sunday Telegraph, says: “Recent announcements on substantial increase in profits for the major shipping companies without extra investment in capacity or offers of alternative solutions would suggest there are significant competition issues at play.”

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The trade bodies said an “investigation of anticompetitive practices or cartel-like practices affecting UK companies is now becoming more urgent”. They called on the CMA and Government to “work at pace to discuss the evidence on the functioning of the shipping market”.

A spokesman for the CMA said: “We are aware of increases in the cost of international shipping and have received reports of market issues and allegations of collusion and price fixing – all of which we are taking seriously.

“As such, we welcome additional information. We are also involved in discussions with the UK Government, our international counterparts and industry on this issue.”

The watchdog has the power to impose a fine of up to 10pc of global revenues if it finds that a company has been involved in anticompetitive behaviour.

The shipping industry has disputed the claims that it is profiteering.

A spokesman for the UK Chamber of Shipping said: “Since the pandemic started there has been unprecedented demand for goods around the world.

“As demand for goods around the world has increased, so inevitably has the cost of moving these items. However, many container lines have brought on extra capacity and moved more ships on to busier trade routes.”

The body said it is working with the Government’s freight council, and expects to be included in a group assembled by the newly appointed supply chain tsar Sir Dave Lewis as he seeks to tackle shortages.

Problems may last well into next year. However, analysts at Jefferies say pressure on supply chains is likely to ease after Christmas, followed by a “significant improvement” in the second half of 2022.

Maersk, the world’s biggest shipping line, directed its vessels away from Felixstowe last week amid backlogs at Britain’s biggest cargo port.

[Chewing Grass]

29 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

'The Bank of England earlier this month said one third of small businesses in the UK are classed as "highly indebted", where their debt levels are more than 10 times their cash balances.

The figures will actually be a lot worse than that as a huge percentage of small businesses are contractors a lot of whom are not trading or winding down due to IR35 and are solvent i.e. do not have 10x debt of their cash balances.

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

The shipping industry must be investigated over allegations of “cartel-like” behaviour and soaring fees that are causing shortages and fuelling inflation, manufacturers have demanded.

MakeUK, the trade body which represents Britain’s industrial base, is calling on the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to examine whether the rocketing cost of transporting goods can be justified.

It is joining an earlier demand from the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) for an investigation as the two groups’ 100,000 member companies buckle under surging prices for seaborne transport.

The organisations are preparing an open letter to the CMA appealing for “urgent action” to investigate whether charges are being coordinated or inflated by shipping companies, with many of their smaller members especially strained by higher costs.

Freight prices have jumped over the past year as disruption at ports increases already-fierce competition for space on ships.

The average price being paid for a 40-foot container from East Asia to Europe is $15,000 (£10,900) according to Freightos, a website which tracks the shipping market – about 10 times higher than at the onset of the pandemic.

There have been allegations that big shipping companies are engaged in cartel-like behaviour, with claims they have taken advantage of the race to secure shipping slots to drive prices higher.

A report from shipping consultancy Drewry forecast that container shipping companies will between them make “surreal” profits of $150bn this year – as much as the previous 20 years combined.

Companies are feeling the squeeze, with product shortages and warnings that shoppers should get ahead on purchases for the holiday season.

A draft of the letter to the regulator from MakeUK and the BCC, seen by The Sunday Telegraph, says: “Recent announcements on substantial increase in profits for the major shipping companies without extra investment in capacity or offers of alternative solutions would suggest there are significant competition issues at play.”

Business Briefing newsletter

Our daily digest packed with news and analysis

Sign up

The trade bodies said an “investigation of anticompetitive practices or cartel-like practices affecting UK companies is now becoming more urgent”. They called on the CMA and Government to “work at pace to discuss the evidence on the functioning of the shipping market”.

A spokesman for the CMA said: “We are aware of increases in the cost of international shipping and have received reports of market issues and allegations of collusion and price fixing – all of which we are taking seriously.

“As such, we welcome additional information. We are also involved in discussions with the UK Government, our international counterparts and industry on this issue.”

The watchdog has the power to impose a fine of up to 10pc of global revenues if it finds that a company has been involved in anticompetitive behaviour.

The shipping industry has disputed the claims that it is profiteering.

A spokesman for the UK Chamber of Shipping said: “Since the pandemic started there has been unprecedented demand for goods around the world.

“As demand for goods around the world has increased, so inevitably has the cost of moving these items. However, many container lines have brought on extra capacity and moved more ships on to busier trade routes.”

The body said it is working with the Government’s freight council, and expects to be included in a group assembled by the newly appointed supply chain tsar Sir Dave Lewis as he seeks to tackle shortages.

Problems may last well into next year. However, analysts at Jefferies say pressure on supply chains is likely to ease after Christmas, followed by a “significant improvement” in the second half of 2022.

Maersk, the world’s biggest shipping line, directed its vessels away from Felixstowe last week amid backlogs at Britain’s biggest cargo port.

The big problem is not 'a cartel' but the plain and simple fact that containers (big steel boxes) generally make a one way trip from China to the West, so the importer has to buy the box as it is effectively worthless.

I think it is the biggest and most obvious example of a 'trade imbalance' you can get.

[Majorpain]

29 minutes ago, Hancock said:

The shipping industry must be investigated over allegations of “cartel-like” behaviour and soaring fees that are causing shortages and fuelling inflation, manufacturers have demanded.

MakeUK, the trade body which represents Britain’s industrial base, is calling on the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to examine whether the rocketing cost of transporting goods can be justified.

The trade bodies said an “investigation of anticompetitive practices or cartel-like practices affecting UK companies is now becoming more urgent”. They called on the CMA and Government to “work at pace to discuss the evidence on the functioning of the shipping market”.

What year do they think it is, 1925 when UK ruled the waves???!!

They have three choices, Pay the going rate to get stuff shipped, don't pay and don't get it shipped, or get the Govt to cap the rate and the shipping companies will sail other more profitable route.  Or "MakeUK" could, you know, encourage UK manufacturing with no nasty shipping from China?

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, Majorpain said:

What year do they think it is, 1925 when UK ruled the waves???!!

They have three choices, Pay the going rate to get stuff shipped, don't pay and don't get it shipped, or get the Govt to cap the rate and the shipping companies will sail other more profitable route.  Or "MakeUK" could, you know, encourage UK manufacturing?

Perhaps 'the government' should buy their own merchant ships and staff them with Brits (think like lorry drivers of the sea) like any decent communist country.

We can call it 'the Merchant Navy'.

Oops. Been there, done that.

[UnconventionalWisdom]

16 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Most people in their 20s and 30s couldn't even manage a 5 mile hike so i wouldn't mark yourself down for "only" 20.

 

Im 45, never married no kids, and id only change that for a 20 something Tatiana from the East. British women of my vintage and below tend to be bloody vile. 

I once went hiking in Taiwan. Bloke in the hotel said the tough path was officially shut due to the typhoon damage but despite battered bridges, you can still go and get amazing views. I did the 5 hour hike in hot weather and the only people I crossed paths with were 5 blokes who were prob in their 70s. When I got down to the "scenic, family route" it was full of people in their 20s. God knows what happens when this generation get old. 

[Hancock]

55 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

What year do they think it is, 1925 when UK ruled the waves???!!

They have three choices, Pay the going rate to get stuff shipped, don't pay and don't get it shipped, or get the Govt to cap the rate and the shipping companies will sail other more profitable route.  Or "MakeUK" could, you know, encourage UK manufacturing with no nasty shipping from China?

To bring manufacturing back, would mean the British having to burn all those nasty fossil fuels from our land, thus making us look not so environmentally friendly.

Much better to let the Chinese make our goods, so the British chattering classes and their brats can claim to be virtuous.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

100%, ive just been to mainland Europe, and its "show me your papers" to get in a bar or restaurant ... they scan my NHS printout, and my name comes up on their system!  Not a chance will i ever visit a bar or restaurant in England if i've to "show my papers", for some garlic bread.

Someone gets shifty asking me for papers il just walk in anyway and if they lay one finger on me il put them over the bar.There is a Premier Inn in Durham,East coast mainline.Maybe we should arrange a meet up and piss up in sometime 

[Loki]

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

The shipping industry must be investigated over allegations of “cartel-like” behaviour and soaring fees that are causing shortages and fuelling inflation, manufacturers have demanded.

MakeUK, the trade body which represents Britain’s industrial base, is calling on the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to examine whether the rocketing cost of transporting goods can be justified.

It is joining an earlier demand from the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) for an investigation as the two groups’ 100,000 member companies buckle under surging prices for seaborne transport.

The organisations are preparing an open letter to the CMA appealing for “urgent action” to investigate whether charges are being coordinated or inflated by shipping companies, with many of their smaller members especially strained by higher costs.

Freight prices have jumped over the past year as disruption at ports increases already-fierce competition for space on ships.

The average price being paid for a 40-foot container from East Asia to Europe is $15,000 (£10,900) according to Freightos, a website which tracks the shipping market – about 10 times higher than at the onset of the pandemic.

There have been allegations that big shipping companies are engaged in cartel-like behaviour, with claims they have taken advantage of the race to secure shipping slots to drive prices higher.

A report from shipping consultancy Drewry forecast that container shipping companies will between them make “surreal” profits of $150bn this year – as much as the previous 20 years combined.

Companies are feeling the squeeze, with product shortages and warnings that shoppers should get ahead on purchases for the holiday season.

A draft of the letter to the regulator from MakeUK and the BCC, seen by The Sunday Telegraph, says: “Recent announcements on substantial increase in profits for the major shipping companies without extra investment in capacity or offers of alternative solutions would suggest there are significant competition issues at play.”

Business Briefing newsletter

Our daily digest packed with news and analysis

Sign up

The trade bodies said an “investigation of anticompetitive practices or cartel-like practices affecting UK companies is now becoming more urgent”. They called on the CMA and Government to “work at pace to discuss the evidence on the functioning of the shipping market”.

A spokesman for the CMA said: “We are aware of increases in the cost of international shipping and have received reports of market issues and allegations of collusion and price fixing – all of which we are taking seriously.

“As such, we welcome additional information. We are also involved in discussions with the UK Government, our international counterparts and industry on this issue.”

The watchdog has the power to impose a fine of up to 10pc of global revenues if it finds that a company has been involved in anticompetitive behaviour.

The shipping industry has disputed the claims that it is profiteering.

A spokesman for the UK Chamber of Shipping said: “Since the pandemic started there has been unprecedented demand for goods around the world.

“As demand for goods around the world has increased, so inevitably has the cost of moving these items. However, many container lines have brought on extra capacity and moved more ships on to busier trade routes.”

The body said it is working with the Government’s freight council, and expects to be included in a group assembled by the newly appointed supply chain tsar Sir Dave Lewis as he seeks to tackle shortages.

Problems may last well into next year. However, analysts at Jefferies say pressure on supply chains is likely to ease after Christmas, followed by a “significant improvement” in the second half of 2022.

Maersk, the world’s biggest shipping line, directed its vessels away from Felixstowe last week amid backlogs at Britain’s biggest cargo port.

They should of hired a macro strategist 5 years ago,fuck them now.I have worked for,and seen how companies rejoiced in the dis-inflation to treat workers like shit, thinking it was never ending to import Chinese workers labour for peanuts.The clever ones now will see the games changed,onshore and increase wages,the ones who hark for the past are fubar.Let them cry.This inflation isnt going away,we are in a distribution cycle now,everything is flipped on its head.

 

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02789-9?fbclid=IwAR0C7rurCyOVkFjBZrQbPZkoxAXNezP4pdmCRKIc2rKaKQim6-W6JMfHD5M

Think BAT will be just fine,im sure after 12,000 years ending up the biggest, a cash flow yield of around 8 is a tad low.

[wherebee]

8 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Enjoy yourself, the years go by as quickly as you wink.

My Father, Grandad and great Grandad all lived to mid 80s to 90. It seems an awful lot to have to plan for.

three out of four grandparents lived to over 85, the one that died earlier smoked.  my parents died in their 60's from work related cancers.  my great granparents died, in the 60's, in their 80's and 90's.

 

fuck.  I need to start smoking.

[RJT1979]

3 hours ago, Hancock said:

100%, ive just been to mainland Europe, and its "show me your papers" to get in a bar or restaurant ... they scan my NHS printout, and my name comes up on their system!  Not a chance will i ever visit a bar or restaurant in England if i've to "show my papers", for some garlic bread.

You visited mainland Europe and a scan of your UK qr code brought up your name and dob?

[wherebee]

41 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

You visited mainland Europe and a scan of your UK qr code brought up your name and dob?

that would be a very interesting privacy case.  If true, it means your medical records (vaccination status) has been shared cross border.

[Sugarlips]

4 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Perhaps 'the government' should buy their own merchant ships and staff them with Brits (think like lorry drivers of the sea) like any decent communist country.

We can call it 'the Merchant Navy'.

Oops. Been there, done that.

Set up webuyanyship.com

[Castlevania]

10 hours ago, Hancock said:

100%, ive just been to mainland Europe, and its "show me your papers" to get in a bar or restaurant ... they scan my NHS printout, and my name comes up on their system!  Not a chance will i ever visit a bar or restaurant in England if i've to "show my papers", for some garlic bread.

I live on the mainland and went to three pubs/bars last Friday. Not one asked to see my Covid vaccination status. 

[Castlevania]

6 hours ago, RJT1979 said:

You visited mainland Europe and a scan of your UK qr code brought up your name and dob?

It also shows what vaccine you’ve taken, the manufacturer of said vaccine and the date you were vaccinated.

[Castlevania]

6 hours ago, wherebee said:

that would be a very interesting privacy case.  If true, it means your medical records (vaccination status) has been shared cross border.

I think the argument is that you are wilfully sharing this information.

The domestic vaccine paper only shows the name of the vaccine and the date you were vaccinated due to privacy laws.

[BurntBread]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02789-9?fbclid=IwAR0C7rurCyOVkFjBZrQbPZkoxAXNezP4pdmCRKIc2rKaKQim6-W6JMfHD5M

Think BAT will be just fine,im sure after 12,000 years ending up the biggest, a cash flow yield of around 8 is a tad low.

Not nearly as long ago (700AD), but the Mayan "God L" is usually depicted smoking a cigar. He is an old man, associated with trade and wealth, and occasionally shown with a young woman (or female deity) on his knee. Might make a good brand for one of the tobacco cos.

 

[RJT1979]

2 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I think the argument is that you are wilfully sharing this information.

The domestic vaccine paper only shows the name of the vaccine and the date you were vaccinated due to privacy laws.

Is this something you can test? Is it a qr code that turns into a url?

[reformed nice guy]

9 hours ago, wherebee said:

fuck.  I need to start smoking.

make sure its a BAT brand please