Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

 

Rishi's mates have let the cat out the bag

[Chewing Grass]

3 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/10/25/tesla-rental-deal-is-propaganda-coup-for-hertzs-selling-shareholders-tesla-but-sales-to-rental-fleets-are-low-quality-sales-automakers-dont-tout/

Wolf says other manufacturers downplay fleet sales for just that reason.

Rentals are driven by the lowest possible price, that's why when you get a rental through work you end up with something weird like a Chevrolet Spark or an exotic big Merc.

[Hancock]

3 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Do you think a reason for that might reflect the level of automation that has been deployed?

No not at all, its because Brits have become global leaders at creating absolute non jobs.

Pipeline i worked on the other year had zero automation .... there was about 30 of us involved in the construction and putting a tunnel under a river ... yet there was about 200 people sat in the offices passing bits of paper to each other.

When there was no welding gear on site, we were all sat around doing nothing ... anyway there were 2 people, educated to degree level employed to keep an eye out for the wildlife ... and one of them complained to the management about us sitting around doing nothing.

This Welsh cunt was being paid for 2/3 years to do a grand total of sweet FA, yet lacked the wit to realise this.

But to get back to my original point we've had 2/3 decades of what were once working class kids, that have been raised by women .... with these women sat on their fat arses all day and the money constantly coming in from the govt ... this new underclass is too fucken stupid and uncivilised to work in jobs that are reliant on a degree of intellect and common sense.

Within 4 months i'm out of this place, maybe the Great British "house" will continue to create wealth for its people forevermore ... but i doubt it!

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

I am still short Tesla (although I closed a few positions at a hefty loss at the end of last year); clearly, I am getting creamed. I didn't participate in the tech boom, but know many who did and lost huge sums - Tesla feels even bigger.

This is the 'Everything bubble' as Wolf Richter calls it Real estate,big tech,govt bonds,corp bonds.....Dimartino Booth has done some great videos on the bubble in the junk bond market which really highlight that big difference between the Tech bubble and now.Back then some banks and bond holders were exposed to losses.This time,there won't be a bond fund that's untouched I suspect especailly if CPI is running at a 3%++ clip,there'll be nowhere to hide.

I'm hearing a lot of people who -no offence-haven't got a clue about the risks they're running,telling me that tesla is the share to buy asnd it's going up from here.....'it's not about the earnings it's about the future earnings' etc etc etc.This is exactly the sort of market topping sign that is a prerequisite for drops.Personally,I'm jsut not sure we're there yet but I'd rather short after a -10% turn in the monthlies than try and predict the the timing of the -10% turn in the monthlies.

 

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I opened a small short position today in Sep 22 puts. Its a gamble, clearly, but should act as a hedge against my other longs. If it expires worthless, the world hasn't imploded and my longs will have it well covered. The reaction to the Hertz order, which must have been as bargain basement prices was the proper level of insanity I wanted to see, and then I saw it was valued at about 60bn in the covid crash, which feels about right. The trillion (wtf??) that has gone into it since is clearly stimmies, as not much else has changed, they still can't fit panels properly!! Mental.

I tend to run long punts as there's more room for manouvre and to build a bigger ,more nuanced postion.

My read is that things should be well under way by then and I think a few deep out of the moeny exploratory postions will do no harm atall.Like you say,nioce balance for the long side.

Of the many shorts I'm interested in I like the look of Ashtead and Tesla the msot.But I will probably go for the ETF's instead and avoid any heavy single stock bets-QQQ,XLK,SMH look about right to me.Nice thing with the US is there options market so much more liquid than UK and obviously only 100 shares as opposed to 1000

 

PE ratio says it all.20 times revenue ffs??? It's like 2000 never happened(and I love lockdown sceptic Musk as well)

[Noallegiance]

19 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

This is the 'Everything bubble' as Wolf Richter calls it Real estate,big tech,govt bonds,corp bonds.....Dimartino Booth has done some great videos on the bubble in the junk bond market which really highlight that big difference between the Tech bubble and now.Back then some banks and bond holders were exposed to losses.This time,there won't be a bond fund that's untouched I suspect especailly if CPI is running at a 3%++ clip,there'll be nowhere to hide.

I'm hearing a lot of people who -no offence-haven't got a clue about the risks they're running,telling me that tesla is the share to buy asnd it's going up from here.....'it's not about the earnings it's about the future earnings' etc etc etc.This is exactly the sort of market topping sign that is a prerequisite for drops.Personally,I'm jsut not sure we're there yet but I'd rather short after a -10% turn in the monthlies than try and predict the the timing of the -10% turn in the monthlies.

 

It'll be interesting to see how cryptocurrencies respond in a sustained bear, too.

[DurhamBorn]

23 minutes ago, Hancock said:

No not at all, its because Brits have become global leaders at creating absolute non jobs.

Pipeline i worked on the other year had zero automation .... there was about 30 of us involved in the construction and putting a tunnel under a river ... yet there was about 200 people sat in the offices passing bits of paper to each other.

When there was no welding gear on site, we were all sat around doing nothing ... anyway there were 2 people, educated to degree level employed to keep an eye out for the wildlife ... and one of them complained to the management about us sitting around doing nothing.

This Welsh cunt was being paid for 2/3 years to do a grand total of sweet FA, yet lacked the wit to realise this.

But to get back to my original point we've had 2/3 decades of what were once working class kids, that have been raised by women .... with these women sat on their fat arses all day and the money constantly coming in from the govt ... this new underclass is too fucken stupid and uncivilised to work in jobs that are reliant on a degree of intellect and common sense.

Within 4 months i'm out of this place, maybe the Great British "house" will continue to create wealth for its people forevermore ... but i doubt it!

The destruction of fathers role in the family was the no1 priority of the left and Brown made sure of it.The Tories arent much better though because when the public give them a mandate to sort it they do nothing,or little.Osborne was doing a decent job of it until they lost their bottle.

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

[jamtomorrow]

31 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

It'll be interesting to see how cryptocurrencies respond in a sustained bear, too.

If you subscribe to the idea of halving cycles, we're expecting a crypto bear next year anyway.

So if Uncle Dave's much-anticipated melt up goes up an over like a pan of milk around the same time, we might end up right back where we started. Crypto types claiming it's the expected bear, no-coiners pronouncing crypto dead (again), and we'll be none the wiser, give or take.

[Axeman123]

6 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

If you subscribe to the idea of halving cycles, we're expecting a crypto bear next year anyway.

So if Uncle Dave's much-anticipated melt up goes up an over like a pan of milk around the same time, we might end up right back where we started. Crypto types claiming it's the expected bear, no-coiners pronouncing crypto dead (again), and we'll be none the wiser, give or take.

In theory the stock-to-flow model holding through crypto winter or not should foretell if it will hold for future halvings. I could see myself buying some BTC exposure in around 3 years if the model holds in a post BK world, but I could also see BTC death-spiralling to zero during a BK.

[Hancock]

33 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The destruction of fathers role in the family was the no1 priority of the left and Brown made sure of it.The Tories arent much better though because when the public give them a mandate to sort it they do nothing,or little.Osborne was doing a decent job of it until they lost their bottle.

Osborne created HTB and FFL thus destroying the prospect of affordable housing which is the no.1 necessity for stable families (as ive found out). They're all as bad as each other imho.

I've just had a hell of a day out in single mother central that is Hull, full of feral little cunts everywhere ... you can be sure if there is a father raising these little runts it's not their own, though looking at most the women in this city you'd have to be pretty desperate to be willing to move in with the average bird in the area.

These little cunts are like niggers, they seem to think to be a man you've got to be some mouthy badboy looking to bother ordinary people who are just going about their business.

.... and this is after 25 years of alleged prosperity, Christ knows what it'll be like in harder times.

 

 

[Noallegiance]

12 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

If you subscribe to the idea of halving cycles, we're expecting a crypto bear next year anyway.

So if Uncle Dave's much-anticipated melt up goes up an over like a pan of milk around the same time, we might end up right back where we started. Crypto types claiming it's the expected bear, no-coiners pronouncing crypto dead (again), and we'll be none the wiser, give or take.

I suppose the natural progression to that is, then, I wonder how Crypto will perform post-bust? Will it join in or will it be dented and cast to flatness or slow degradation? Or will the need to make money via speculation take off a la roaring 20s again?

So much to come.

[jamtomorrow]

3 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I suppose the natural progression to that is, then, I wonder how Crypto will perform post-bust? Will it join in or will it be dented and cast to flatness or slow degradation? Or will the need to make money via speculation take off a la roaring 20s again?

So much to come.

I'm with DB to some extent - next year's crypto bear or secular bust (take your pick) will fully kill off the vast majority of shitcoins. What happens to Bitcoin is the interesting question (to me)

[Animal Spirits]

On 18/10/2021 at 19:43, Democorruptcy said:

Hussman's latest. He seems a bit less Big Kahuna than usual.

 

John Hussman quoting Greg Jensen of Bridgewater from his interview on The Grant Williams Podcast:

"Easier and easier money, bigger and bigger deficits – that’s the destiny, until – and this is the big risk. A deflationary slowdown is easy for policy makers. They’ll print more money and spend more money. What’s hard is when they’re constrained, and that constraint is obviously inflation and currency, and that’s where the gig will be up. That’s actually what, in our view, everybody has to start hedging in their portfolios – it’s not the next disinflationary or deflationary downturn. It’s essentially inflation and currency problems becoming constraints on the government and this world where we’ve been living in where policy makers can get whatever they want from the stock market and interest rates to one where they can’t".

You can listen to the episode here:

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Seems there is going to be some option given to share holders

Anyone any thoughts on wether to take it up ?

Thoughts:

1. If you don't take up the offer then not only is your share holding is diluted, they have to hit a higher price proportionally for you to be in the same position prior to the new share issue.

2. You have the opportunity to buy at 1.15 yet the market value post share issue will be 1.26.

3. With the SFO issue dealt with [and paid for], and additional capital as support then by my logic the company is in a much stronger position to a) tender/win contracts [it not perceived toxic anymore], and b) to support a reintroduction of a dividend. Both of these should mean growth/share price should increase.

That said, who knows what condition it is really in and/or what the markets have planned for it...you could be 'throwing good money after bad' as they say, so only you can decide this.....as always DYOR.

p.s Don't listen to anyone on the internet, they all have their own vested interests!

[Democorruptcy]

https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions

[Sugarlips]

6 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

That is the type of logic applied to crypto currency, especially BitCoin. It just doesn't make any sense to me. 

 

And that is why I'm still poor.

Trump wants to buy all the fake news media with his SPAC.

Using the same logic cant Elon just buy all the other car brands?

A thought re the Hertz deal, it plays perfectly to the COP26 narrative, maybe both co’s need to get on the right side of tptb given the deal is like Enron getting in bed with Lehman..

[Sugarlips]

6 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is there something we should know ?

Simon?

ICM$5

 

[wherebee]

8 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

I worked with some people who became multi-millionaires over night in the dotcom bubble, including the receptionist !!!

They weren't allowed to sell their shares for 12 months after listing ( not sure why ) and by the time they were allowed to sell their was little point as they were pretty much worthless. All the porsches and Ferraris had to go back.

 

Then they were idiots.  They could have borrowed shitloads against the paper value, bought gold buried it, gone bankrupt, and dug it up 10 years later.

[wherebee]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

But muh spare capacity

what could possibly go wrong in a nuclear power station in a part of the world that has had tribal warfare for 2,500 years and counting?

[Presuming Ed]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-gas-crisis-helps-land-bp-500-million-windfall-2021-10-26/

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/equinor-q3-surges-high-gas-price-will-increase-share-buybacks-2021-10-27/

Shell and Repsol reporting tomorrow, I think. BP next week. 

Nest pension administrators choking on their cornflakes this morning. 

[Majorpain]

8 hours ago, wherebee said:

what could possibly go wrong in a nuclear power station in a part of the world that has had tribal warfare for 2,500 years and counting?

#inshallah

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Presuming Ed said:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-gas-crisis-helps-land-bp-500-million-windfall-2021-10-26/

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/equinor-q3-surges-high-gas-price-will-increase-share-buybacks-2021-10-27/

Shell and Repsol reporting tomorrow, I think. BP next week. 

Nest pension administrators choking on their cornflakes this morning. 

My sons pension is in NEST,no choice.They wont care.That idiot women in charge will get her massive salary while the lowest paid lose out.The public sector and worse these thrid sector as Labour called them can and do just increase their pay and conditions whenever their policies make society poorer.

Take the council my partner works.The managers are now doing "hybrid" working.One day a week in the office,4 at home.Service is collapsing,supposed to be 14 nurse responders on a nightshift,she had 7 last night.So old folks not getting the service,frontline workers shafted,council tax payers robbed of more and more yet the bosses sat at home accountable to nobody.Sunaks answer as we knew it would be isnt a new one,its the oldest,inflation.

[HousePriceMania]

Did anyone post this:

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/france-announces-more-aid-low-income-families-deal-with-energy-prices-2021-10-21/

 

France offers lower-income households 100 euro inflation bonus

 

They're handing out 100 Euros to help people cope with inflation caused by handing out money

Which bank did does Macron work for ?

[HousePriceMania]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/repsol-brings-norways-yme-oil-field-back-stream-after-20-years-2021-10-25/

 

Repsol brings Norway's Yme oil field back on stream after 20 years