Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

22 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

.......

I think you're absolutely right that our Politicians aren't seeing this train coming.At some point the expectations of the average Joe(welfare,pensions,NHS,benefits) and the ability of the economy  to deliver said expectations are going to diverge to a point where it's obvious to 80% of people that it's unsustainable and that's when I suspect we'll start to see the rise of extrmeist parties on both sides and some cities witness a rise in street violence/political protest..

Simples.  They see it.  That's why they've been doing what they are doing now, with more to come. 

[DoINeedOne]

@DurhamBorn and others whilst i was looking into MoneySuperMarket i had this in my notes the information below which involves the insurance companies, not sure how badly it will effect them or even benefit them if they can get customers to stay longer

but thought it would be interesting for some here 

 

Regulatory Risk

 

ENBP = Equivalent New Business Price

The FCA in (28 May 2021) published its policy statement formally confirming its proposals for tackling price walking in the home and motor insurance markets.

Price walking, also known as the loyalty penalty or dual pricing, refers to when new insurance customers receive more competitive and cheaper premiums compared to long standing customers renewing their cover.

According to the FCA, over six million existing insurance customers would have saved £1.2 bn in 2018 if they had paid the average price for their actual risk, as opposed to falling victim to the price walking model.

The regulator added that because of price walking, insurance customers have had to shop around for their cover every year to avoid higher premiums.

Many firms offer a below cost price to attract new customers. They also use sophisticated processes to target the best deals at customers who they think will not switch in the future and will therefore pay more the FCA explained.

Insurers will be required to offer renewing customers a price that is no higher than they would pay as a new customer.

It is likely that firms will no longer offer unsustainably low-priced deals to some customers. However, the FCA estimates that these measures will save consumers £4.2 bn over 10 years, by removing the loyalty penalty and making the market work better.

Alongside the new rules on price walking, the FCA has also introduced rules to

- Give most consumers easier methods of cancelling the automatic renewal of their policy.

- Require insurance firms to do more to consider how they offer fair value to their customers.

- Require home and motor insurance firms to report data to the FCA so that it can supervise the market more effectively.

Consumers can still benefit from shopping around or negotiating with their current provider, but won’t be charged more at renewal just for being an existing customer.

The FCA plans to review the effects of its remedies in 2022, ahead of a full evaluation in early 2024.

Alongside today’s policy statement, the FCA has also published research on how incentives affect consumers’ choices, focusing on purchases of motor and home insurance made through price comparison websites. The research was undertaken to inform the regulator’s approach to the new pricing rules.

Several respondents felt that, unless our rules prevented it, firms might offer discounts and incentives to new customers to subvert the aims of the pricing rules. For example, firms might offer a discount for new business customers and reduce this discount at subsequent renewals to reproduce the effect of price walking.

To prevent firms circumventing the object of the rules, the rules on incentives apply when the incentive is either wholly or partly funded by a firm setting a renewal price. This means that if a firm that sets the renewal price funds a cash or cash equivalent incentive that is given to customers by another party in the distribution chain, then the firm that funded the incentive will still need to include it in the ENBP for renewing customers.

We remind firms that using cash or cash‐equivalent incentives to systematically discriminate against customers based on tenure would breach the rules.

This is going to be a bumpy ride for insurance brands and consumers alike in the short term. The FCA has revealed that cash and cash equivalent incentives, other than toys and carbon off setting, cannot be used to entice new customers without being offered to renewing customers. This means the savviest consumers who shop around each year will see prices rise and discounts and offers disappear.

[Democorruptcy]

43 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

No worries Harley.It was a long one.

Thank god I didn't open the popcorn after Harley's post.

[Harley]

38 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

WHen I look at thsoe Dr Tim charts,it really does look bleak for a lot of sectors that aren't essential to life and relaint on disposable income.

This was my big reveal this week after listening to another podcast on the matter, plus reading some smart articles.  "Reveal" as in "internalised". 

So I'm building a fortress portfolio which, as far as sectors are concerned is proper hard core, close to the source with pricing power.  No peripherals.  IMO, the tide is/will go out and leave most companies high and dry.  Stock picking against the right macro outlook is key.

I note even DB is uncertain about the insurers.  All that sort of stuff will be reserved for my trend following portfolio.  But my fortress portfolio (which is more than just a list of stocks) is for the bunker, the availability of bunker busting bombs accepted.

These are demanding times for us investors but this is the time to show our best.  It energises me.  Yin Yang, usually for the overall best.

PS:  Or somewhat less flowery, "You want a war?  I'll give you a war"!

[Loki]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Not the best picture she looks like she upset whilst looking at her phone 

 

 

I deleted her off tinder

[DoINeedOne]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

I deleted her off tinder

Oh i get it she's not upset then, it's relief 

[Chewing Grass]

Monthly Company Insolvency Statistics for April 2022.

Double 2021 and 2021 was 39% up on 2020.

The number of registered company insolvencies in April 2022 was 1,991:

• More than double the number registered in the same month in the previous year (925 in April 2021), and
• 39% higher than the number registered three years previously (pre-pandemic; 1,429 in April 2019).

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/monthly-insolvency-statistics-april-2022/commentary-monthly-insolvency-statistics-april-2022

[Noallegiance]

1 minute ago, Chewing Grass said:

Monthly Company Insolvency Statistics for April 2022.

Double 2021 and 2021 was 39% up on 2020.

The number of registered company insolvencies in April 2022 was 1,991:

• More than double the number registered in the same month in the previous year (925 in April 2021), and
• 39% higher than the number registered three years previously (pre-pandemic; 1,429 in April 2019).

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/monthly-insolvency-statistics-april-2022/commentary-monthly-insolvency-statistics-april-2022

It's almost as though shutting the economy but giving businesses money was another can-kicking exercise.......

[Harley]

15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Thank god I didn't open the popcorn after Harley's post.

Wrong thread mate, there's a better one upstairs on Ukraine but you'll get fat or burst an artery with all that salt! 

[moneyscam]

Interesting graphics showing how much trade relationships have changed over the last 30 years. In the context of the US primarily threatening secondary sanctions on anyone doing business with Russia, they don't quite have the leverage they used to have. And if Germany continues on its path of economic self suicide, it won't even be on the chart in 20 years.

[GoneDark]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

From Mr @jerrybuzzkill

How appropriate. 

[leonardratso]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

I am always very suspicious as to someones agenda when I see character assassination 'campaigns' such as this against an individual. If I disagree with someone I normally present my argument/evidence, and if they don't want to listen so be it, and I 'let it lie'. By reposting this are you not concerned that you are being led/manipulated in someway by somebody else to promote their agenda?

well its parody, make of it what you will, weather it is more sinister in actually assassinating uncle daves character ive no idea, the followers and popularity/engagement with in these parodies suggests they arent taken seriously or followed closely so as to make them relevant to the person they allude to.

[Chewing Grass]

This is interesting, I will chuck a few odd snippets below.

There were 275,000 more people in payrolled employment in February 2022 when compared with January 2022.

Early estimates for February 2022 indicate that median monthly pay increased by 5.1% compared with February 2021 and increased by 9.7% when compared with February 2020.

For Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) 3 regions, annual growth in payrolled employees in February 2022 was the highest in Tower Hamlets, with a rise of 13.4%, and was lowest in Warrington, with a rise of 2.7%; at local administrative unit level, growth rates vary between positive 2.7% and positive 13.4%.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/earningsandemploymentfrompayasyouearnrealtimeinformationuk/march2022

[reformed nice guy]

2 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Guys, can ya help me out with deciding on a second ISA platform? was going to go with: interactive investor ...but they aint that cheap check out the compassion table:

 

https://www.koody.co/investing/compare-the-best-investment-platforms#compare

 

Does anyone here use InvestEngine ? (https://investengine.com/isa/)

 

COS...InvestEngine does NOT charge any platform fee on DIY portfolios.

 

BUT...their site looks like it was built by some muppet from fiverr!

 

 

BTW, Wish folks would stop mentioning RM, i wanted to sell when it reached £6 quid, but bottled it, ffs it even reached resistance at that price! DUH!

 

 

Oh well...at least yesterday i slipped in and got my last block of VOD at £1.16 making a HUGE 4p saving on what UAE Telecom Firm e&by paid!!!

 

ANYWAYS...do post ya thoughts on a second second ISA platform, CHEERS!

 

 

This website is kept up to date

https://monevator.com/compare-uk-cheapest-online-brokers/

[baffledbyzirp]

2 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

This website is kept up to date

https://monevator.com/compare-uk-cheapest-online-brokers/

I trade on the II platform, which has been undergoing 'maintenance issues' for ages. Again access this weekend will be impossible until Sunday afternoon. If you have a decent chunk to invest i.e. £250,000 the charges are reasonable but with smaller allocations it is quite pricey. They do operate a referral scheme where, if you are introduced by a friend with an existing account, they receive £200 and your fees for the first year are waived. It may be worth considering, however once you are in it is rather like the Hotel California!

[AWW]

26 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Monthly Company Insolvency Statistics for April 2022.

Double 2021 and 2021 was 39% up on 2020.

The number of registered company insolvencies in April 2022 was 1,991:

• More than double the number registered in the same month in the previous year (925 in April 2021), and
• 39% higher than the number registered three years previously (pre-pandemic; 1,429 in April 2019).

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/monthly-insolvency-statistics-april-2022/commentary-monthly-insolvency-statistics-april-2022

I wonder how many of these were companies taking out a £50k bounce back loan, paying it out as salary to a director over the next year and then being unable to repay the loan?

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, feed said:

Partner works in the insurance industry.  There are probably a more upsides than downsides at this point.

Tech.  Huge automation and AI on the way with still plenty opportunity for further offshoring.  

Consolidation.  Smaller Niche players are going to get eaten by the big guys 

Improved mix.  Fewer cars sure but they’ll be higher value and run by those that are a better risk / more profitable. 

Assuming that they can price the risk and commercial doesn’t fall apart.  Unlikely to make a fortune, but should do ok.

Great info,and more returns due to higher rates on their reserves.

[Plan-b]

33 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

 

 

What I get from that graphic is what a Piss-ant the UK has become.  

[MrXxxx]

23 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

well its parody, make of it what you will, weather it is more sinister in actually assassinating uncle daves character ive no idea, the followers and popularity/engagement with in these parodies suggests they arent taken seriously or followed closely so as to make them relevant to the person they allude to.

...a joke is funny/makes you laugh the first time, makes you smile the second, groan the third, and at the fourth becomes tiresome...ask yourself what is the 'real' value of this continuing parody?

[feed]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Great info,and more returns due to higher rates on their reserves.

Thing with a lot of the insurance industry, it hasn’t really change in years.  A lot of the high net worth (read profitable) stuff is still a client / broker / underwriter phone relationship.  

We know that middle is going to get eroded away over the next few years.   So those that use that to move out of the unprofitable businesses or customers and develop that model, by, dare it say it, disruptive means, can do well.  

No idea who that will be though.   
 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Tldr but if this is about energy driving the economy, etc (badly worded but that kind of thing) then yes, there have been a number of recent podcast discussions on the topic (I posted a link to one recently).  Makes a lot of sense as the fog clears from the market and the real drivers become clear.  Ironically the illiterate green and ESG lot are making it even more clearer by their dysfunctional actions. 

This also has a socio-political dimension in that the wars (Ukraine, covid, LGBT,....) with their censorship and behavioural manipulation programmes are highlighting a house of constructs built of sand.  After mych pain, nature will eventually reassert itself over man's Canute like delusions.  Ozymandias to a tee!

Cnut tried to hold the waves back to show he was just a man and couldnt,history made it out the other way,he was one of us.Funny enough i used to go fishing at High Coniscliffe on the River Tees close to where i live where he used to sign his charters with the people north of the Tees,the very spot was called Maidens Pool by the locals because the women used to bathe naked in the river there.

[HousePriceMania]

The answer to this turns out to be Nationwide BS.
 

Can anyone explain to me what the question means ?

I assume it's not good.

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, Dogtania said:

Haven't been adding to any pots since last year due to change of circumstances.  Although bought some nice shiny silver a few months back and my first sov the other day.

I have an ISA with HL and a LISA (s&s) with AJ bell.  Previously I was making use of the regular saving feature at AJ (FTSE350 dealing charge £1.50) so as to build up positions in companies rather than funds.  

Anyway would like to start dripping a bit into the HL ISA again -monthly investing into funds.

Was looking for example at both Henderson far East and BlackRock Latin America. Very green question but trying to decide on accumulation Vs income.  I assume I won't be penalised going with accumulation?  Ie previously I had set up a few individual company shares as accumulation (I think that's the right term - dividends were automatically being used to buy more shares).  I have since cancelled all those so just get the dividend as income - wrt individual stocks I assume I'd be shooting myself in the foot doing so for say a holding of £1000? Ie dealing charge??

So if I'm right with the above it doesn't apply the same way with funds (generally - but would need to look at dealers and fund managers terms for specifics).  And just need to decide whether I want the income or to accumulate more as personal circumstances may dictate?

Other thing I wanted to add in was pot stocks.  I know tobacco companies are generally quite a safe bet in the arena although I've only really got IMB and a smaller bit of BAT.  I know they've been investing in companies, think as altria were one that recently made quite a big investment.  Looking at a few I've saved -cannabis companies not tobacco- they've taken quite a beating over the past few years.

Generally the market seems to be in its infancy and a lot of growth almost baked in.  Whether say a Canadian company which may be seen a big player now stands to gain I'm not sure.  And how the macro environment (change in cycle) will effect things.  Would the company altria invested billions in be looked after by it's shareholder or just gobbled up.  And if gobbled up - and with the valuation on a quick albeit completely amateur look right now quit low, would there still be opportunity?   

Also maybe more for the traders - it does look like they are unloved but also volatile.

I started trying to get together a list last week, I have a few tabs open on the browser at home.  Looking at balance sheets and quarterly reports, well I think I need to go back to school to find which are the most indebited and whether these loans are structured in their favour.  A few own a lot of greenhouses and land which seems more tempting over a brand company.  And then there is the medical play too.

Will try to look over the weekend or next week, maybe use as a learning opportunity.  I do like the idea of a few small punts although realise the best bet are the titans whether that be drinks companies, tobac etc

There’s both a Blackrock Latin America fund and investment trust. I think they’re the same. The investment trust trades at a discount to NAV so possibly worth considering, although you will pay a bid offer and in times of stress that NAV could widen further.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

One of the reasons we waded in so heavily back in 20 into energy was the confirmation of the trends in energy coming from two different relaible sources,one being the macro types eg yourself and DH analysing dollar liquidity and the other was @Cattle Prod confirming what the line of travel in terms of supply was looking like ie bad.

WHen I look at thsoe Dr Tim charts,it really does look bleak for a lot of sectors that aren't essential to life and relaint on disposable income.

I think you're absolutely right that our Politicians aren't seeing this train coming.At some point the expectations of the average Joe(welfare,pensions,NHS,benefits) and the ability of the economy  to deliver said expectations are going to diverge to a point where it's obvious to 80% of people that it's unsustainable and that's when I suspect we'll start to see the rise of extrmeist parties on both sides and some cities witness a rise in street violence/political protest..

The funny thing is my roadmap was showing that the economy couldnt produce enough for the demands on it.That was the main reason i saw the printing and inflation as certain.Now im able to see why my numbers said that.It also means my back end of the cycle needs looking at.If energy cant respond to the price signals we are in a very difficult place.Its not on TV yet,but the anger from those paying to those getting freebies from the state will be huge.The over 50s jacking in is the first big signal i think of disengage.

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

No worries Harley.It was a long one.

I simpley couldn't summarize the concepts he was delving into and I think with me drawing highlights,I might lose some of the nuance.

You can psot transcripts of podcasts they're generally a lot quicker for me to read than to lsiten to.But then I read on a laptop.I'm short time which is why I prefer long psots with highlights.Youre short screen space.I get it.

 

 

 

Possibly worth hiding the quoted text so that anyone who has no interest in reading it can easily skip.