Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Majorpain]

Quote

PM vows to 'put arms around' people suffering in the cost of living crisis

I've heard that phrase before...  Matt Hancock going to make a comeback as minister for cost of living?  He did such a good job with the care homes.

[Plan-b]

2 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

I've heard that phrase before...  Matt Hancock going to make a comeback as minister for cost of living?  He did such a good job with the care homes.

Fatso's arms aint long enough

[Axeman123]

5 minutes ago, Starsend said:

"Permitted" Cunt needs to remember who's money it is.

As for shitcoin halving in 6 months, so what! So have BP and Shell recently, more in fact. Perhaps we shouldn't be "Permitted" to buy those either. 

The annuity quoted as paying ~2.5% for life starting at age 65 is the rip off product, but slides neatly under their radar.

I also thought it interesting that they were referencing the american criteria of "high net worth" to access sophisticated financial products. That probably implies an international push for a standardised approach. A rich man's playground?

The reference to "crypto or other high-risk products" implies SIPPs could soon be much more restrictive, or perhaps even restricted to 60/40 etc type funds (no doubt with gilts and ESG components).

A lot to unpack in a short fluff article.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The funny thing is my roadmap was showing that the economy couldnt produce enough for the demands on it.That was the main reason i saw the printing and inflation as certain.Now im able to see why my numbers said that.It also means my back end of the cycle needs looking at.If energy cant respond to the price signals we are in a very difficult place.Its not on TV yet,but the anger from those paying to those getting freebies from the state will be huge.The over 50s jacking in is the first big signal i think of disengage.

Thinking aloud here. This point suggests that the unemployed will eventually be forced into work or penury - possibly even workhouse type arrangements. However, as energy becomes scarcer and the economy contracts some industries will whither and employment alongside them.  In contrast human labour could be used where it becomes cheaper than fuel. An obvious existing example is hand car washes, although that is surely caused by some combination of benefits and unskilled immigration. Could this hybrid income arrangement where the state and employer each pay part of the wages of a worker become even more common, moving up to full time hours? If the unemployed, including those masquerading as unfit to work, are forced into employment but they are economically marginal producers then they will need topping up somehow. We could see areas such as agriculture maximise output through more labour.

On the other hand we have the expected onshoring of production. This will produce jobs but it relies on energy. If we cannot secure an outsize per capita proportion of the world's energy that goes to shit. If we do there will be even more people looking to come here to get their share.

Another option is the state taking up even more of the employment slack. At least we might have very clean streets. Go long broom manufacturers with a water wheel for power.

[WICAO]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Straw poll....are you up or down this week ?
...

At this point I'll be down about -0.5%.

Of course all noise in the scheme of the long game I'm playing.

[Starsend]

19 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Come on mate Shell & BP have not halved in the last 6 months

Not in the last six months, couple years back. BP has still not recovered to it's all time high pre-covid. It was £2 at some point in the last year or two cos I bought it - so it had more than halved.

 

[feed]

8 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Thinking aloud here. This point suggests that the unemployed will eventually be forced into work or penury - possibly even workhouse type arrangements. However, as energy becomes scarcer and the economy contracts some industries will whither and employment alongside them.  In contrast human labour could be used where it becomes cheaper than fuel. An obvious existing example is hand car washes, although that is surely caused by some combination of benefits and unskilled immigration. Could this hybrid income arrangement where the state and employer each pay part of the wages of a worker become even more common, moving up to full time hours? If the unemployed, including those masquerading as unfit to work, are forced into employment but they are economically marginal producers then they will need topping up somehow. We could see areas such as agriculture maximise output through more labour.

On the other hand we have the expected onshoring of production. This will produce jobs but it relies on energy. If we cannot secure an outsize per capita proportion of the world's energy that goes to shit. If we do there will be even more people looking to come here to get their share.

Another option is the state taking up even more of the employment slack. At least we might have very clean streets. Go long broom manufacturers with a water wheel for power.

There is another problem.  There is a substantial proportion of the population that aren’t even marginal producers, they’re negative.  Sub 80 IQ and the cost of employment is greater than the productively yield.

Average IQ is falling and min IQ to function in our increasing complex economy (e.g computerised tills for POS in retail) 
 

Socially it maybe better to pay the price for employing the negatively productive.  But we didn't when we could afford too, so who will pay the price now.  

[Axeman123]

5 minutes ago, feed said:

There is another problem.  There is a substantial proportion of the population that aren’t even marginal producers, they’re negative.  Sub 80 IQ and the cost of employment is greater than the productively yield.

Average IQ is falling and min IQ to function in our increasing complex economy (e.g computerised tills for POS in retail) 
 

Socially it maybe better to pay the price for employing the negatively productive.  But we didn't when we could afford too, so who will pay the price now.  

You wonder if this is the real agenda behind the elities' fixation on transhumanism, and experimental gene-therapy rollouts. Eugenics were an attempt to grapple with the same issues, but obviously now off limits. Imagine when they tell Sharon and Tracy that they have a vaccine to "make the baby grow up to be better at football...maybe even good enough for the Premiership...oh, and some other IQ/communal thinking stuff". 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

9 minutes ago, feed said:

There is another problem.  There is a substantial proportion of the population that aren’t even marginal producers, they’re negative.  Sub 80 IQ and the cost of employment is greater than the productively yield.

Average IQ is falling and min IQ to function in our increasing complex economy (e.g computerised tills for POS in retail) 
 

Socially it maybe better to pay the price for employing the negatively productive.  But we didn't when we could afford too, so who will pay the price now.  

How many people are that dumb? The people I know that are on benefits are intelligent. They just found themselves in the situation where benefits paid better than working because they were mums at a young age. Although I suppose it is a small and biased sample as I wouldn't interact with them if they were thick. Or ugly.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

You wonder if this is the real agenda behind the elities' fixation on transhumanism, and experimental gene-therapy rollouts. Eugenics were an attempt to grapple with the same issues, but obviously now off limits. Imagine when they tell Sharon and Tracy that they have a vaccine to "make the baby grow up to be better at football...maybe even good enough for the Premiership...oh, and some other IQ/communal thinking stuff". 

I think they're scared. Very scared. They will grasp anything that they think will perpetuate their power and pass it down the generations. The idea of being part of the masses, who they see as mere animals, is their worst nightmare.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Straw poll....are you up or down this week ?

If people are drinking at home then pubs and restaurants are ****ed

Up.

Re pubs, in winter will Wetherpoons have to limit the time allowed at a table drinking their refillable coffees? People could be blocking tables all day to keep warm.

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Up.

Re pubs, in winter will Wetherpoons have to limit the time allowed at a table drinking their refillable coffees? People could be blocking tables all day to keep warm.

You could definitely see a shift to intentionally uncomfortable seats etc in many places, and signs like "minimum one purchase per hour, per person". Refillable coffees will almost disappear. Otherwise groups of men will be brawling over tables and certain ethnic groups will be claiming sections, like in a US prison yard.

[janch]

29 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I think they're scared. Very scared. They will grasp anything that they think will perpetuate their power and pass it down the generations. The idea of being part of the masses, who they see as mere animals, is their worst nightmare.

You can see why they might wish to reduce the population somewhat with something which may cause premature death and stillbirths but which shows its effects rather gradually so no-one cottons on until it's too late.

[Chewing Grass]

Just now, janch said:

You can see why they might wish to reduce the population somewhat with something which may cause premature death and stillbirths but which shows its effects rather gradually so no-one cottons on until it's too late.

Which is fucking Evil.

[Froggy2000]

52 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

How many people are that dumb? The people I know that are on benefits are intelligent. They just found themselves in the situation where benefits paid better than working because they were mums at a young age. Although I suppose it is a small and biased sample as I wouldn't interact with them if they were thick. Or ugly.

Jordan Peterson thinks its roughly 15% (6 mins in).

Agree with your point that some on the dole are cleverer than that and just abusing it though.

[janch]

5 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Monthly Company Insolvency Statistics for April 2022.

Double 2021 and 2021 was 39% up on 2020.

The number of registered company insolvencies in April 2022 was 1,991:

• More than double the number registered in the same month in the previous year (925 in April 2021), and
• 39% higher than the number registered three years previously (pre-pandemic; 1,429 in April 2019).

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/monthly-insolvency-statistics-april-2022/commentary-monthly-insolvency-statistics-april-2022

Are we too late?

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, Froggy2000 said:

...Agree with your point that some on the dole are cleverer than that and just abusing it though.

I am going to speculate that doleys will mostly be at the twin tails of the bellcurve, ie unusually high or low IQ. That is why I would assume a gene-therapy-conspiracy would seek to eliminate both extremes, both the too-thick-for-useful-work and the too-clever-for-this-shit!

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I am going to speculate that doleys will mostly be at the twin tails of the bellcurve, ie unusually high or low IQ. That is why I would assume a gene-therapy-conspiracy would seek to eliminate both extremes, both the too-thick-for-useful-work and the too-clever-for-this-shit!

George Carlin

Quote

You know what they want? They want obedient workers. Obedient workers, people who are just smart enough to run the machines and do the paperwork. And just dumb enough to passively accept all these increasingly shittier jobs with the lower pay, the longer hours, the reduced benefits, the end of overtime and vanishing pension that disappears the minute you go to collect it. And now they're coming for your Social Security money. They want your f**kin' retirement money. They want it back so they can give it to their criminal friends on Wall Street.

 

[Axeman123]

Just now, Loki said:

Geroge Carlin

I am a big fan of his, that quote was probably part of my thinking when I wrote the above.

My favourite of his was when he said politicians should be liveried like Nascar drivers, so you know who is paying them through donations!

[feed]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

How many people are that dumb? The people I know that are on benefits are intelligent. They just found themselves in the situation where benefits paid better than working because they were mums at a young age. Although I suppose it is a small and biased sample as I wouldn't interact with them if they were thick. Or ugly.

The problem isn't how dumb they are or aren't. It's how much they cost to employ in a world of performance metrics, appraisals, dignity at work and liability insurance.  

Sure people game the system.  But how many of them would you hire?   

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Rubbish. It's only the lowest since 2008, it's a series of lower lows since 1974.

Everything's OK then? 

[JMD]

8 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

It never crossed my mind it was Slim, I was just looking for a rocket!

Plus it gets better... Slim Pickens had a brother called Easy Pickens?!    Am not making that up, though in reality the family name was Lindley, so I suppose a bit contrived.

[Axeman123]

4 minutes ago, JMD said:

Plus it gets better... Slim Pickens had a brother called Easy Pickens?!    Am not making that up, though in reality the family name was Lindley, so I suppose a bit contrived.

Cousin Bum couldn't get anywhere in showbiz mind...

[GoneDark]

6 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

The answer to this turns out to be Nationwide BS.
 

Can anyone explain to me what the question means ?

I assume it's not good.

If I had say, a very low 5 figure sum in Nationwide, sounds like it might be a good time to move it.

They used to be get when travelling abroad a long long time ago.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, janch said:

Are we too late?

The easy money has been made. Buy insolvency practitioners when the economy is booming; sell when it’s not. They’re back at around the level I sold the last of my holding at the start of last year.