Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Loki]

13 minutes ago, GoneDark said:

If I had say, a very low 5 figure sum in Nationwide, sounds like it might be a good time to move it.

They used to be get when travelling abroad a long long time ago.

Wouldn't that be covered by the FSCS?

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I think they're scared. Very scared. They will grasp anything that they think will perpetuate their power and pass it down the generations. The idea of being part of the masses, who they see as mere animals, is their worst nightmare.

When i was 14 we went rabbiting on a landed gentry estate,within 15 minutes two gamekeepers and four coppers turned up,they all treat us like utter scum,only reason we werent prosecuted is because they got called away to a traffic accident.My mate went back with his older brother and burnt down one of their barns.Another time when around 25 i was seeing this girl and a fox ran in front of the car,fox hunt in hot pursuit.The girl loved animals and was really upset so i parked in front of the gate stopping the hunt getting through.One of them in some upper class language started to whip my car saying get back to your town and off our land, so i got out and ragged him off his horse,the police turned up and i just drove off.Lucky really as i was about to belt him and likely id of had 20 toffs trying to kill me.They really are vile.

[HousePriceMania]

14 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

When i was 14 we went rabbiting on a landed gentry estate,within 15 minutes two gamekeepers and four coppers turned up,they all treat us like utter scum,only reason we werent prosecuted is because they got called away to a traffic accident.My mate went back with his older brother and burnt down one of their barns.Another time when around 25 i was seeing this girl and a fox ran in front of the car,fox hunt in hot pursuit.The girl loved animals and was really upset so i parked in front of the gate stopping the hunt getting through.One of them in some upper class language started to whip my car saying get back to your town and off our land, so i got out and ragged him off his horse,the police turned up and i just drove off.Lucky really as i was about to belt him and likely id of had 20 toffs trying to kill me.They really are vile.

Shoulda ask them who they bought the land off, ####ing land thieves 

[stoobs]

This always puzzles me, how do a tiny minority who own nearly everything control an enormous majority?

In modern UK this comes down to the Tories (and likely other parties) performing some astonishing mind-control trick where they manage to convince the Peasants that they too will become Lords given enough time. Therefore don't rock the boat by forcibly taking ownership of the biggest land estate in your locality.

[Axeman123]

10 minutes ago, stoobs said:

This always puzzles me, how do a tiny minority who own nearly everything control an enormous majority?

In modern UK this comes down to the Tories (and likely other parties) performing some astonishing mind-control trick where they manage to convince the Peasants that they too will become Lords given enough time. Therefore don't rock the boat by forcibly taking ownership of the biggest land estate in your locality.

Someone has to run things, otherwise it would just be a winner-takes-all free-for-all of violence. Anyone with even slightly more than they could hold by violence is better off with the devil they know, especially if that devil has sensibly retreated from publicly displaying their worst instincts over a century or two. Obviously DBs experience with the fox-hunt peirced the veil.

[GoneDark]

Oh yes it is under 20k. Still would rather not the hassle to deal with that if at all possible.

Have been meaning to get rid of them since they went heavily in to BTL.

Sounds like now might be the time to get my arse into gear.

[ThoughtCriminal]

I think most of us are Gen X, give or take, so I'd say what we're going to see as we enter the path to our twilight years is the inversion of the 80s/90s: that meteoric rise in living standards and new tech etc will be mirrored by the decline and reversion to the mean.

 

I think life without cheap energy will look something like the 50s. Minus the homogeneous, high trust society society.

 

I don't know if anyone is familiar with Peter Thiel, but his big thing has always been that we've been stagnating for a long time now. He points out that air travel is now slower (demise of Concorde), the record for the fastest transatlantic crossing was set in 1952, not been back to the moon in more than 50 years. 

 

The end of cheap energy probably seals the deal.

[AWW]

My eldest just got a place at our third choice school.

I'm looking at the UK, my job, and the macro situation and wondering why I wouldn't just buy a F1 level motorhome for £150k and travel. Even just in the UK. No work, £20k income from my portfolio and I'll "home" school the kids.

Kinda looking to be talked out of it at this point. Thoughts?

[Noallegiance]

1 minute ago, AWW said:

My eldest just got a place at our third choice school.

I'm looking at the UK, my job, and the macro situation and wondering why I wouldn't just buy a F1 level motorhome for £150k and travel. Even just in the UK. No work, £20k income from my portfolio and I'll "home" school the kids.

Kinda looking to be talked out of it at this point. Thoughts?

Fuck the financial bit. Kids are annoying. They're even more annoying when you can't get away from them.

[AWW]

The alternative is to pay a bank £200k for the privilege of taking on £800k of debt to buy a 3 bed semi.

[AWW]

45 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Fuck the financial bit. Kids are annoying. They're even more annoying when you can't get away from them.

Nah, they're fucking hilarious, honest, inquisitive and loving. Great personality traits that as parents our job is to foster.

"Kids", just like adults, aren't all the same.

[geordie_lurch]

So the S&P 500 has closed and it's officially now in a bear market. Monday could be interesting and this from Zerohedge makes a good point

Happy weekend all

 

[AWW]

Just now, geordie_lurch said:

So the S&P 500 has closed and it's officially now in a bear market. Monday could be interesting and this from Zerohedge makes a good point

Isn't the point that it can't possibly happen?

I still see far more risk sitting in cash than pretty much anything else.

[ThoughtCriminal]

10 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yeah I've read Thiel, interesting guy. Makes a convincing argument for monopoly/oligopoly too. And per my above post, has a bolt hole long built in New Zealand. I bet it's not obvious on Google earth.

Yes, and I'd absolutely guarantee that he's left nothing to chance. Probably has 100 years of food and energy stored there.

 

Not that they're infallible by any means, but it's a pity the likes of him and Musk don't get a shot at running things.

[AWW]

I've had a few drinks, so fuck it, I'll ask. Is anyone up for a "thread gathering" in London in the summer?

Appreciate it's not Durham, but it's the Durham of the south.

[AWW]

We could meet in Waterloo and toast DB in the shadow of Shell HQ.

[Chewing Grass]

Oooh Look, while the rest of the world is increasing borrowing rates China is cutting Mortgage Rates so people can invest in empty boxes in ghost cities.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-cuts-mortgage-reference-rate-013747005.html

[ThoughtCriminal]

14 minutes ago, AWW said:

My eldest just got a place at our third choice school.

I'm looking at the UK, my job, and the macro situation and wondering why I wouldn't just buy a F1 level motorhome for £150k and travel. Even just in the UK. No work, £20k income from my portfolio and I'll "home" school the kids.

Kinda looking to be talked out of it at this point. Thoughts?

I'd say go for it. 

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/115355173835?mkcid=16&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-127632-2357-0&ssspo=17LbA9OkQja&sssrc=2349624&ssuid=59VAPqoSTlW&var=&widget_ver=artemis&media=COPY

90k

 

Or you can get a huge mortgage in airstrip 1

 

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

8 hours ago, baffledbyzirp said:

I trade on the II platform, which has been undergoing 'maintenance issues' for ages. Again access this weekend will be impossible until Sunday afternoon. If you have a decent chunk to invest i.e. £250,000 the charges are reasonable but with smaller allocations it is quite pricey. They do operate a referral scheme where, if you are introduced by a friend with an existing account, they receive £200 and your fees for the first year are waived. It may be worth considering, however once you are in it is rather like the Hotel California!

 

TOO LATE!

 

I opened an ii ISA account this morning, and then saw the 'referral scheme'  surprised no one here mentioned this FREE £200 ?! Probably all LOADED here and want to stay anonymous!

 

ii online reviews are very GOOD, the only reason for opening another ISA - is simply not to have all my eggs in one basket, having a large amount of funds in HL is probably safe if things go tits up,(it's been discussed here b4) but i just feel happier with funds split between 2 brokers...

 

ii fees aren't too bad, Stocks and Shares ISA costs £9.99 a month, you get 1 free trade per month, HL costs ya £11.99 per trade! So I'm OK with it, ONLY disappointment is my fees for the first year could have been waived!!!

 

SO anybody thinking about opening an account with ii, shoot me a PM, and ...we'll split the difference!

 

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I think most of us are Gen X,.

Millennial. Thanks for fucking up everything  

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

My eldest just got a place at our third choice school.

I'm looking at the UK, my job, and the macro situation and wondering why I wouldn't just buy a F1 level motorhome for £150k and travel. Even just in the UK. No work, £20k income from my portfolio and I'll "home" school the kids.

Kinda looking to be talked out of it at this point. Thoughts?

Bad idea. Leave London though.

[AWW]

Right, I'm calling it. Saturday June 25th, CDATRCTC (cataract? We're not all that old!) drinks in London.

@DurhamBornI will gladly fund a train ticket by way of appreciation.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yeah I've read Thiel, interesting guy. Makes a convincing argument for monopoly/oligopoly too. And per my above post, has a bolt hole long built in New Zealand. I bet it's not obvious on Google earth.

Have a link to his views on monopoly/oligopoly? Given the shitshow bringing in “competition” to the domestic energy market has been (before you consider all the cost cutting aka job losses and lower wages for those that worked/work for the likes of the Scottish Play) I’m intrigued.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

The alternative is to pay a bank £200k for the privilege of taking on £800k of debt to buy a 3 bed semi.

Move to my town,buy a £150k semi and the motorhome.

[Harley]

7 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Interesting podcast well timed too as i just finished reading the book "Capital Returns"

Is it worth a read?  Doesn't look like the simple book he implied!  I love the point at the bottom and it's timely given @sancho panza comment yesterday about looking to the longer term rather than trying to play shorter term with the "professionals".  That's our alpha.  It all helps me realise I've drifted from my base.  I spent time with my charts today to let it sink in and base to move forward.  I'm looking forward to more focus and more time!