Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[jamtomorrow]

8 hours ago, Froggy2000 said:

Having said that rant I'm all in favour of us dosboders buying up land. There has never in our history been a period where it was possible for the common man to buy land at such cheap prices as it is to today. 1 acre is 10k. Look at how much land we have in the entire country then RUN to buy it. Stupid toffs will soon realise what dumb ****s they are.

Seems a good time for one of our occasional reminders of how social and economic collapse can play out in reality: http://www.survival-spot.com/survival-blog/argentina-collapse/

This passage has always stuck with me, and made me think best place to be is outside big towns or cities but with enough neighbours close by to watch out for each other:

Someone once asked me how did those that live in the country fare. If they were better off than city dwellers. As always there are no simple answers. Wish I could say country good, city bad, but I can’t, because if I have to be completely honest, and I intend to be so, there are some issues that have to be analyzed, especially security and security monitoring methods

...

1. Those that want to harm you/steal from you don’t come with a pirate flag waving over their heads.
2. Neither do they start shooting at you 200 yards away.
3. They won’t come riding loud bikes or dressed with their orange, convict just escaped from prison jump suits, so that you can identify them the better. Nor do they all wear chains around their necks and leather jackets. If I had a dollar for each time a person that got robbed told me “They looked like NORMAL people, dressed better than we are”, honestly, I would have enough money for a nice gun. There are exceptions, but don’t expect them to dress like in the movies.
4. A man with a wife and two or three kids can’t set up a watch. I don’t care if you are SEAL, SWAT or John Freaking Rambo, no 6th sense is going to tell you that there is a guy pointing a gun at your back when you are trying to fix the water pump that just broke, or carrying a big heavy bag of dried beans you bought that morning.

The best alarm system anyone can have in a farm are dogs. But dogs can get killed and poisoned. A friend of mine had all four dogs poisoned on his farm one night, they all died. After all these years I learned that even though the person that lives out in the country is safer when it comes to small time robberies, that same person is more exposed to extremely violent home robberies

[stoobs]

11 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

TOO LATE!

 

I opened an ii ISA account this morning, and then saw the 'referral scheme'  surprised no one here mentioned this FREE £200 ?! Probably all LOADED here and want to stay anonymous!

 

ii online reviews are very GOOD, the only reason for opening another ISA - is simply not to have all my eggs in one basket, having a large amount of funds in HL is probably safe if things go tits up,(it's been discussed here b4) but i just feel happier with funds split between 2 brokers...

 

ii fees aren't too bad, Stocks and Shares ISA costs £9.99 a month, you get 1 free trade per month, HL costs ya £11.99 per trade! So I'm OK with it, ONLY disappointment is my fees for the first year could have been waived!!!

 

SO anybody thinking about opening an account with ii, shoot me a PM, and ...we'll split the difference!

 

If you’re busy at some point (trading more than 3 or 4 shares a month) it’s worth switching to the super investor level.

Twice the monthly fee, but each trade fee is halved.

You can switch to the super level at any moment, then immediately trade at half fees. When you’re done switch back to normal level. Assuming you didn’t cross your monthly subscription date you’ll just pay the one month at double fee.

[Animal Spirits]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

For those saying Newcastle is a shit hole and saying come to stabby stabby London are you mental

You'll be able to pratice Krav Maga.

[Pip321]

8 hours ago, Phil said:

Leeds is a shithole.

It’s in disguise. Keeps soft southerners out (with their female hormone infused beers). Also keeps them North Easterners away (smashing up the place and shoplifting).😆😆

Would love to see DB try his luck with a Leeds lass….Clash of the Titans and a race to the car park.🤦🏻‍♂️

Joking apart…‘twas only a geographic suggestion for you ladies. York maybe even better for trains from Durham and/or London. 

Infact Durham itself is good for trains from the south.

Either way…I am a newbie and a miserable bastard so I won’t be there, but I do think a meeting is a good idea for you guys because this seems a genuine thread.

Edit, just seen Geordies note…agree completely. DB should get first call on date and venue.🍻

[Phil]

Just now, Pip321 said:

It’s in disguise. Keeps soft southerners out (with their female hormone infused beers). Also keeps them North Easterners away (smashing up the place and shoplifting).😆😆

Would love to see DB try his luck with a Leeds lass….Clash of the Titans and a race to the car park.🤦🏻‍♂️

Joking apart…‘twas only a geographic suggestion for you ladies. York maybe even better for trains from Durham and/or London. 

Infact Durham itself is good for trains from the south.

Either way…I am a newbie and a miserable bastard so I won’t be there, but I do think a meeting is a good idea for you guys because this seems a genuine thread.

I'm also a newbie and miserable most of the time and some parts of  leeds are very nice tbf. I also think that this site has a very wide base of knowledge and views that I learn from and agree, disagree with making it not tikky tokky. Have a great weekend. 👍

[belfastchild]

13 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I think most of us are Gen X, give or take, so I'd say what we're going to see as we enter the path to our twilight years is the inversion of the 80s/90s: that meteoric rise in living standards and new tech etc will be mirrored by the decline and reversion to the mean.

 

I think life without cheap energy will look something like the 50s. Minus the homogeneous, high trust society society.

 

I don't know if anyone is familiar with Peter Thiel, but his big thing has always been that we've been stagnating for a long time now. He points out that air travel is now slower (demise of Concorde), the record for the fastest transatlantic crossing was set in 1952, not been back to the moon in more than 50 years. 

 

The end of cheap energy probably seals the deal.

I often ask people to give me examples of revolution instead of evolution in the last 40 years.
Theres usually not many examples. Last thing I usually say is the space shuttle and they started designing it in 1969.

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

For those saying Newcastle is a shit hole and saying come to stabby stabby London are you mental There's much lower chance of any bother up here when some of you shandy drinkers get a bit shouty as well as less chance of DB getting knocked off or poached by some jealous London stock traders

Seriously though I'm up for meeting you lot but reckon we should let @DurhamBornd decide the location and dates. It should be the cheapest night he's had out wherever we meet as I hope he won't have to buy a drink all night

Spending all that brass on pub prices in stabcity? It could be used to buy some units that will compound up over the years with dividends re-invested. Any meet up should be a bring your own discounted booze to DB's house, where he provides supper using his pizza oven with ingredients that were on offer locally that night.

[Froggy2000]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

First time hearing about this, mind you the whole "blitz spirit" propaganda was always bollocks. Unless you meant occupied Europe?

Yes I meant Europe.

[ThoughtCriminal]

45 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

I often ask people to give me examples of revolution instead of evolution in the last 40 years.
Theres usually not many examples. Last thing I usually say is the space shuttle and they started designing it in 1969.

That's another great example, and very telling.

 

Spaceflight has to be the biggest disappointment of all, it's been absymal.

 

As Thiel argues, almost all of our "advances" are in the virtual world of computing, internet etc. Its almost as if we retreated from overcoming material challenges.

 

This mirrors perfectly the energy versus finance economics theme: one is bullshit and the other is very real.

 

And as we know , reality has a habit of reasserting itself eventually, no matter how much you run and hide and convince yourself that you've mastered it.

 

We're about to find that out with Renewables in my opinion.

[Shamone]

14 hours ago, stoobs said:

This always puzzles me, how do a tiny minority who own nearly everything control an enormous majority?

In modern UK this comes down to the Tories (and likely other parties) performing some astonishing mind-control trick where they manage to convince the Peasants that they too will become Lords given enough time. Therefore don't rock the boat by forcibly taking ownership of the biggest land estate in your locality.

It’s relatively easy. Fill the children’s minds with rubbish and propaganda from an early age. Set up an “education” system to further condition them not to think for themselves. Feed them garbage food. Then when they are kidults use divide and rule to keep them so busy fighting each other over scraps that they fail to see the true picture. 

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

For those saying Newcastle is a shit hole and saying come to stabby stabby London are you mental There's much lower chance of any bother up here when some of you shandy drinkers get a bit shouty as well as less chance of DB getting knocked off or poached by some jealous London stock traders

Seriously though I'm up for meeting you lot but reckon we should let @DurhamBornd decide the location and dates. It should be the cheapest night he's had out wherever we meet as I hope he won't have to buy a drink all night

Durham once the new Premier Inn opens,2 minutes from the east coast mainline train station one side,2 minutes from the pubs etc the other,everything within about 300metres.Not as lively as big cities of course,but more laid back.2hrs 40 from Kings Cross.

All of Durham,just right on the photo past the viaduct is the station,direct south of station 50metres is the New Premier Inn,pubs just over the road.

£2.50 a pint in two Spoons there,and they have a lively one.

"hi,sorry for butting in but that dress is lovely,you look really classy", "thankyou,you here for a mens night out", "yeah sort of,its a macro contrarian meet up to discuss the distribution cycle" ,",oh right,bye" 

[geordie_lurch]

17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Durham once the new Premier Inn opens,2 minutes from the east coast mainline train station one side,2 minutes from the pubs etc the other,everything within about 300metres.Not as lively as big cities of course,but more laid back.2hrs 40 from Kings Cross.

All of Durham,just right on the photo past the viaduct is the station,direct south of station 50metres is the New Premier Inn,pubs just over the road.

£2.50 a pint in two Spoons there,and they have a lively one.

"hi,sorry for butting in but that dress is lovely,you look really classy", "thankyou,you here for a mens night out", "yeah sort of,its a macro contrarian meet up to discuss the distribution cycle" ,",oh right,bye" 

Haha I look forward to it Someone needs to get hold of some yellow reduced stickers so we can use them as name tags

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

It’s in disguise. Keeps soft southerners out (with their female hormone infused beers). Also keeps them North Easterners away (smashing up the place and shoplifting).😆😆

Would love to see DB try his luck with a Leeds lass….Clash of the Titans and a race to the car park.🤦🏻‍♂️

Joking apart…‘twas only a geographic suggestion for you ladies. York maybe even better for trains from Durham and/or London. 

Infact Durham itself is good for trains from the south.

Either way…I am a newbie and a miserable bastard so I won’t be there, but I do think a meeting is a good idea for you guys because this seems a genuine thread.

Edit, just seen Geordies note…agree completely. DB should get first call on date and venue.🍻

Ha,oh really,well how about the fact i lived 6 months in Gipton every weekend with a gorgeous lass,just behind the Cherry Tree a place they called The Circus,she had ripper victims buried just behind her back fence.Not joking she was beautiful and a lovely lass,really poor,couple of bairns.Her ex used to beat the shit out of her and anyone she dated,i just went over to his car,"hello mate nice to meet you" disarms people confidence,she adored me,i ended up knocking off a lass from Cheltenham and she found out.Regret hurting her to this day.Saw another one for a few months,again really smart,and again really poor.Went to a workmans club with her and her parents taxi was swerving around burned out cars from a riot night before,think it was called Harehills Club.Took her to Whitby folk weekend,she had never ever been to things like that,she loved it,she looked amazing as well.I ended it though as i was seeing one from Berwick and she didnt deserve being treated like that.

Iv been all around the country with women over the years and i can honestly say the ones i liked the most were from Leeds,gorgeous,filth,laid back,funny,kind.

I used to love driving in past an old red bus they used as a cafe and start smiling,because i knew a lovely weekend was ahead.

 

[Sman]

21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Durham once the new Premier Inn opens,2 minutes from the east coast mainline train station one side,2 minutes from the pubs etc the other,everything within about 300metres.Not as lively as big cities of course,but more laid back.2hrs 40 from Kings Cross.

All of Durham,just right on the photo past the viaduct is the station,direct south of station 50metres is the New Premier Inn,pubs just over the road.

£2.50 a pint in two Spoons there,and they have a lively one.

"hi,sorry for butting in but that dress is lovely,you look really classy", "thankyou,you here for a mens night out", "yeah sort of,its a macro contrarian meet up to discuss the distribution cycle" ,",oh right,bye" 

Thought your would be bringing the Wilko's home brew and hip flask 😂

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Sman said:

Thought your would be bringing the Wilko's home brew and hip flask 😂

My partner does have a bra you can store drink in for festivals etc,but im not wearing that.

[Castlevania]

26 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Durham once the new Premier Inn opens,2 minutes from the east coast mainline train station one side,2 minutes from the pubs etc the other,everything within about 300metres.Not as lively as big cities of course,but more laid back.2hrs 40 from Kings Cross.

All of Durham,just right on the photo past the viaduct is the station,direct south of station 50metres is the New Premier Inn,pubs just over the road.

£2.50 a pint in two Spoons there,and they have a lively one.

"hi,sorry for butting in but that dress is lovely,you look really classy", "thankyou,you here for a mens night out", "yeah sort of,its a macro contrarian meet up to discuss the distribution cycle" ,",oh right,bye" 

Sounds good. If we did it during the Summer months (from 26 June to 25 September) when the students are away you can stay in the castle or in a hall of residence for a reasonable amount (for a single room).

https://www.dur.ac.uk/event.durham/venues/colleges/durham.castle/accommodation/bedrooms/

Bit more interesting than a Premier Inn in my opinion, and you get to eat your breakfast in the banqueting hall (if you stay in the castle).

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Spaceflight has to be the biggest disappointment of all, it's been absymal.

 

As Thiel argues, almost all of our "advances" are in the virtual world of computing, internet etc. Its almost as if we retreated from overcoming material challenges.

Hopelessly off topic, but I found the recent Voyager behaviour interesting.

https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/voyager-1-nasa-solar-system-milky-way-b2083384.html?amp

An interesting theory is that the radiation outside the solar system and the suns magnetic field is to such an extent extreme enough to flip bits (even though voyager components have been radiation hardened). 

This has happened before with a spy satellite which by its very nature uses encryption (voyager wouldn’t use an encryption key). By flipping a few bits in a key (even one would totally change a key) the satellite was able to be communicated with but replied with unintelligible data. It took the NSA to use some powerful computers and whole load of brute forcing to work out what bits had flipped and to generate a new key to re-establish communication.

https://astroengineer.wordpress.com/2010/05/12/voyager-2-has-flipped-its-bit/

The other end of the scale could mean that voyager is in a state of degradation. Eventual space travel would have to be able to shield against degrading apart at the molecular level or be turned into eventual space dust. This would need to be overcome with a some sort of vacuum/magnetic field before long distance space travel could become viable.

That is of course if they haven’t already overcome these issues in any theoretical black projects.

https://patents.google.com/patent/US10144532B2/en
 

[Joncrete Cungle]

11 hours ago, Froggy2000 said:

Having said that rant I'm all in favour of us dosboders buying up land. There has never in our history been a period where it was possible for the common man to buy land at such cheap prices as it is to today. 1 acre is 10k. Look at how much land we have in the entire country then RUN to buy it. Stupid toffs will soon realise what dumb ****s they are.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Hopelessly off topic

Allow me 

Cosmic rays and computers - https://www.nature.com/articles/news980730-7

2009 Cosmic Rays Hit Space Age High -  https://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/ray_surge.html

A growing dent in Earth's magnetic field could wreak havoc on satellites and the space station, NASA says -  https://www.businessinsider.com/weak-spot-magnetic-field-growing-could-harm-satellites-2020-8

 

Are we all looking forward to CBDC?  (The D is for digital)

[Pip321]

47 minutes ago, Shamone said:

It’s relatively easy. Fill the children’s minds with rubbish and propaganda from an early age. Set up an “education” system to further condition them not to think for themselves. Feed them garbage food. Then when they are kidults use divide and rule to keep them so busy fighting each other over scraps that they fail to see the true picture. 

What nonsense you speak. 

It’s all Thatcher’s fault…no Blair’s….no the EU’s…..no the immigrants….no the CEO’s….no the Russians…no Bidens

Okay, I take your point, worryingly accurate 😉

[Sman]

25 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My partner does have a bra you can store drink in for festivals etc,but im not wearing that.

Suits you sir😂

[DurhamBorn]

29 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Sounds good. If we did it during the Summer months (from 26 June to 25 September) when the students are away you can stay in the castle or in a hall of residence for a reasonable amount (for a single room).

https://www.dur.ac.uk/event.durham/venues/colleges/durham.castle/accommodation/bedrooms/

Bit more interesting than a Premier Inn in my opinion, and you get to eat your breakfast in the banqueting hall (if you stay in the castle).

Yes the castle is fantastic,i have a photo of my late mam sat on the wall when she was around 23.I went one day and worked out the exact stone she was sitting on.Proved tricky,but got there with angles from the catherdral windows etc.Sometimes leave a tulip on the spot,was her favourite flower.

If any of you did want to do that sometime id be happy to come along.I only mentioned Premier Inn because its easy and cheap and if you own 64 shares in Whitbread you get a free all you can eat breakfast 

[ThoughtCriminal]

26 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Hopelessly off topic, but I found the recent Voyager behaviour interesting.

https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/voyager-1-nasa-solar-system-milky-way-b2083384.html?amp

An interesting theory is that the radiation outside the solar system and the suns magnetic field is to such an extent extreme enough to flip bits (even though voyager components have been radiation hardened). 

This has happened before with a spy satellite which by its very nature uses encryption (voyager wouldn’t use an encryption key). By flipping a few bits in a key (even one would totally change a key) the satellite was able to be communicated with but replied with unintelligible data. It took the NSA to use some powerful computers and whole load of brute forcing to work out what bits had flipped and to generate a new key to re-establish communication.

https://astroengineer.wordpress.com/2010/05/12/voyager-2-has-flipped-its-bit/

The other end of the scale could mean that voyager is in a state of degradation. Eventual space travel would have to be able to shield against degrading apart at the molecular level or be turned into eventual space dust. This would need to be overcome with a some sort of vacuum/magnetic field before long distance space travel could become viable.

That is of course if they haven’t already overcome these issues in any theoretical black projects.

https://patents.google.com/patent/US10144532B2/en
 

I think we're allowed a bit of off topic leeway on a weekend lol 

 

Its a never ending source of wonder to me that the voyagers have been travelling through space and transmitting data for as long as I've been alive. The imagination and vision of the men of the 60s and 70s can't be overstated.

 

Interesting share 👍

 

 

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

27 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Bonkers. Just absolutely fucking bonkers.

 

Takes off like a rocket about 2003. What's the correlation/causation? 🤔

[ThoughtCriminal]

23 minutes ago, Loki said:

Allow me 

Cosmic rays and computers - https://www.nature.com/articles/news980730-7

2009 Cosmic Rays Hit Space Age High -  https://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/ray_surge.html

A growing dent in Earth's magnetic field could wreak havoc on satellites and the space station, NASA says -  https://www.businessinsider.com/weak-spot-magnetic-field-growing-could-harm-satellites-2020-8

 

Are we all looking forward to CBDC?  (The D is for digital)

That's the next absolute shit show coming. A second Carrington event will have us hacking each other to death within an hour.

 

No redundancy built into anything, the antithesis of Talebs "Anti-fragile".