Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Joncrete Cungle]

4 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Bonkers. Just absolutely fucking bonkers.

 

Takes off like a rocket about 2003. What's the correlation/causation? 🤔

I wonder how that graph fits alongside average UK house prices? Off the top of my head I suspect a similar pattern?

[belfastchild]

36 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Land has gone nuts here in the same timeframe. Used to be about 2.5k an acre, now around 12k minimum (20k for small plots). Was told it was down to land banking during the boom years, ag land bought up cheaply near urban or future urban designated residential. When an acre of development land was changing hands for a million 10k was nothing to buy and sit on for 10-20 years.

Ive been looking for a couple of acres/woodland within cycling distance for a number of years now (not much hope of that) and its always small holdings going to the pony set, play area set. Ag land auctioneer here told me he has a waiting list for people prepared to pay a premium for small plots or subdivided. Well that and nobody within cycling distance of where I live now would sell to me.

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

I wonder how that graph fits alongside average UK house prices? Off the top of my head I suspect a similar pattern?

This one came up in my search area today. 3.5 acres for £100k.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/119203616#/?channel=COM_BUY

 

[Chewing Grass]

46 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Hopelessly off topic, but I found the recent Voyager behaviour interesting.

https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/voyager-1-nasa-solar-system-milky-way-b2083384.html?amp

An interesting theory is that the radiation outside the solar system and the suns magnetic field is to such an extent extreme enough to flip bits (even though voyager components have been radiation hardened). 

This has happened before with a spy satellite which by its very nature uses encryption (voyager wouldn’t use an encryption key). By flipping a few bits in a key (even one would totally change a key) the satellite was able to be communicated with but replied with unintelligible data. It took the NSA to use some powerful computers and whole load of brute forcing to work out what bits had flipped and to generate a new key to re-establish communication.

https://astroengineer.wordpress.com/2010/05/12/voyager-2-has-flipped-its-bit/

The other end of the scale could mean that voyager is in a state of degradation. Eventual space travel would have to be able to shield against degrading apart at the molecular level or be turned into eventual space dust. This would need to be overcome with a some sort of vacuum/magnetic field before long distance space travel could become viable.

That is of course if they haven’t already overcome these issues in any theoretical black projects.

https://patents.google.com/patent/US10144532B2/en
 

If I remember correctly, a bit-flip changed the result in a Belgian election in 2003.

Prior to that in 1978 Intel realised that even slight contamination of the ceramic chip casing with radioactivity resulted in bit flips, they had a Yankee factory near a Uranium processing mill.

Plus recently there was the Super-Mario mystery of the little plumber magically jumping to another level in a stunt that was nerdily unrepeatable.

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Ive been looking for a couple of acres/woodland within cycling distance for a number of years now (not much hope of that) and its always small holdings going to the pony set, play area set. Ag land auctioneer here told me he has a waiting list for people prepared to pay a premium for small plots or subdivided. Well that and nobody within cycling distance of where I live now would sell to me.

That's happening near me, field is bought, sub divided with fencing, then rented to pricks who can't really afford horses, all plots are too small to be sustainably grazed by a nag.

[Joncrete Cungle]

Just now, Chewing Grass said:

That's happening near me, field is bought, sub divided with fencing, then rented to pricks who can't really afford horses, all plots are too small to be sustainably grazed by a nag.

Ends up an overgrazed trodden, muddy, pockmarked mess full of weeds, tumbledown fences and overgrown hedges.....

[DoINeedOne]

14 hours ago, Harley said:

Is it worth a read?  Doesn't look like the simple book he implied!  I love the point at the bottom and it's timely given @sancho panza comment yesterday about looking to the longer term rather than trying to play shorter term with the "professionals".  That's our alpha.  It all helps me realise I've drifted from my base.  I spent time with my charts today to let it sink in and base to move forward.  I'm looking forward to more focus and more time!

I enjoyed it not a cheap book really so there may be a PDF somewhere but its from 2016 i think so most of it is about Marathons (one of the guys on the interview you posted) letters and thoughts from the years before and how they see things

Interesting it talks about companies that received lots of capital think of house builders in Spain boom, telecoms during the late 90's etc...

Returns then slowed as more competition entered the space because everyones making money, less fucks given about allocating cash correctly and capital starts leaving, growth slows companies leave the space or collapse only a few left

One thing about the Spanish construction companies was they started buying up other companies, street cleaning businesses to if i remember correctly Heathrow airport and shitloads of debt 

Also alot about industries where a few companies control it and work together in pricing rather than tit for tat trying to undercut each other as most industries do

its harder for others to build the assets that they currently have actually made me think alot about @DurhamBorn point about telecoms and their assets and how a new company would not be able to create that easily

Also they were/are hated whilst everyone is chasing the tech stocks 

Free cash flow and how important it is and it seems a shame that most companies do stock buybacks normally when the price is at its highest but thats normally when they have lots of spare cash

It also talks even for 2016 how unfortunately so many companies in industries are zombies because low interest rates 

it was an interesting book and views will need to re-read it again probably 

Sorry if the above is abit random slightly hung over

 

BUT from that interview you posted i found the comment about Japanese steel interesting, and how its produced cleaner than China, so in time would buying Japanese steel be considered ESG friendly because its cleaner also how stupid the whole ESG thing is 

 

i enjoy reading Howard Marks memos too especially the older ones

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memos

 

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I think we're allowed a bit of off topic leeway on a weekend lol 

 

Its a never ending source of wonder to me that the voyagers have been travelling through space and transmitting data for as long as I've been alive. The imagination and vision of the men of the 60s and 70s can't be overstated.

 

Interesting share 👍

 

The distances are unimaginable.

Travelling at the balmy fast speed of light ie that’s 7 times round the world in one second….it takes 9 minutes to reach the Sun.

It takes about 5.5 hours at light speed to reach Pluto ie the edge of the ‘simple’ solar system. So several hours but Voyager 1 actually took 35 years and V2 around 41 years….just to cover a few hours light speed  

Now for the mind fuck…to ‘hop’ to the next star isn’t hours but it is then 4.5 years away at light speed…tens of thousands of years away for Voyager. That’s a lot of space.

To leave our little galaxy would take 100,000 years (at light speed) and once we get out of the local cluster of galaxies it’s a long long ride before we see another galaxy…..and there are billions of galaxies.

Puts into context having to walk a mile into town when the car breaks down.

As we are off thread weekend (I didn’t take much prompting)…..what I love about physical science is it doesn’t really provide answers just more and more questions. Our perception using our senses and equipment is quite limited and I like Brian Cox’s attitude which is one of awe (the awe of nature) rather than a smug scientist who think maths answers any of the real questions.

Now if you lot can get that context and sell me some BPs shares cheap on Monday I would be most grateful.😉

[Errol]

 

[Errol]

 

[Bobthebuilder]

21 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Now if you lot can get that context and sell me some BPs shares cheap on Monday I would be most grateful.

Whenever life gets you down, Mrs. Brown,
And things seem hard or tough,
And people are stupid, obnoxious or daft,

And you feel that you've had quite eno-o-o-o-o-ough,

Just remember that you're standing on a planet that's evolving
And revolving at 900 miles an hour.
It's orbiting at 19 miles a second, so it's reckoned,
The sun that is the source of all our power.
Now the sun, and you and me, and all the stars that we can see,
Are moving at a million miles a day,
In the outer spiral arm, at 40, 000 miles an hour,
Of a galaxy we call the Milky Way.

Our galaxy itself contains a hundred billion stars;
It's a hundred thousand light-years side to side;
It bulges in the middle sixteen thousand light-years thick,
But out by us it's just three thousand light-years wide.
We're thirty thousand light-years from Galactic Central Point,
We go 'round every two hundred million years;
And our galaxy itself is one of millions of billions
In this amazing and expanding universe.

Our universe itself keeps on expanding and expanding,
In all of the directions it can whiz;
As fast as it can go, at the speed of light, you know,
Twelve million miles a minute and that's the fastest speed there is.
So remember, when you're feeling very small and insecure,
How amazingly unlikely is your birth;
And pray that there's intelligent life somewhere out in space,
'Cause there's bugger all down here on Earth!

[Shamone]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

worked out the exact stone

Excellent job, sir. I did something slightly similar myself. Took a photo near the train tracks in Flagstaff when I first went to USA. Then did an exact replica with my dad, years later. Back in the day of film, so didn’t know it worked until later!

[DoINeedOne]

@Harley

Here is Edward chancellor talking about it the year he's book was released, pretty much the same 

Part 1

 

Part 2

 

[JMD]

On 20/05/2022 at 09:25, wherebee said:

I'm now wondering about the 'where next' question, DB.  very pleased with my oilies, long term hold, dividends from hereonin, same with BAT.  got about 50k in miners ready for the run, expect to get 75-100k out at the burp.  What to rotate those miner profits into?  

Onshore manufacturing, certainly, but I will only look at Australia and the US midwest.  I really think the UK and european countries have jumped the shark on energy and are screwed.

Yes I agree. Personally I think smaller companies, ones that will quickly grow/benefit from on-shoring will be the biggest winners, those and strategic companies. I expect them to attract the required capitol investment and government support (especially if job creators) - however I am not sure which sectors will benefit most, let alone the companies themselves - really wish I was that clever!! Though could be wide range of companies as DB mentions manufacturers are now making white goods near him!      But a very good topic for thread discussion I think.

[THE SOUP DRAGON]

Here is a sobering thought regarding workplace pensions. Announcement made regarding a change in the default option and how it is now going to be more ESG focused. No need for any action to be taken they'll handle the change.

Now this wasn't a surprise based on what I have learnt here, what was shocking though was the information given out on how many people stick with the default option and change nothing. 

99% do nothing.

[M S E Refugee]

59 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

@Harley

Here is Edward chancellor talking about it the year he's book was released, pretty much the same 

Part 1

 

Part 2

 

 

 

Merryn is look tattyfilarious nowadays!

[JMD]

On 20/05/2022 at 09:43, wherebee said:

housebuilders are starting to collapse here in Australia.  couple gone under already, word on the street is some medium/big ones teetering.  mate I spoke to this week has a mate who works for one, owed 200k in back pay, reckons he will lose it all.

If I was into shorting....

Good information.  But as far as 'shorting' goes, I'm very tempted to short the Dr Who rating figures. The next Dr will be played by a black actor and he will have a black Trans assistant!! Of course my point is not about race or colour, because children are the major viewing component of this show, and it is they who are mostly bored by the politics of the story lines. My point is that the recent casting would seem to imply that a once great British TV institution, rather like the comedies we once made, will be sacrificed on the progressive alter of diversity and inclusivity... Sorry for thread derailment, but had to be said! 

[JMD]

On 20/05/2022 at 09:58, DoINeedOne said:

Not the best picture she looks like she upset whilst looking at her phone 

 

 

I agree, her expression in the advert seems pensive or even somewhat resigned... Then again, perhaps the advertising execs took the client's brief too literally - or awkwardly truthfully!! - and the story narrative became that she only invested for s**ts and giggles!!

[JMD]

On 20/05/2022 at 09:43, MrXxxx said:

...and what happens to those that get a 2.2/3rd class 'Degree'?!

Don't they now become PM?!

[M S E Refugee]

My iShares Eastern Europe ETF is going to be delisted on the 22nd of June.

I take it they will return whatever money is left?

No doubt Blackrock will keep the Russian Shares until they can sell them and keep the money.

[leonardratso]

hmm, latest hires at work include an 'inclusivity and diversity' type management bod, hahaha, im so glad i disengaged with these arseholes years ago, i just hang around doing as little as possible while consuming the most overhead i can out of them in the form of time and money, i could see where it was going woke wise so i keep my head down and just keep taking the cash, a bit like that old inefficient boiler that never needs repairing but sucks the money right out of your wallet faster than you can put it back in.

NB. and as usual i see they are years behind everyone else who seem to be realising that all this shit is just a waste of time and money.

[Democorruptcy]

Amerman's latest, it's not a time to panic but The Historical Case For A 70% Real Stock Market Loss Over 14 Years

[JMD]

On 20/05/2022 at 10:25, sancho panza said:

One of the reasons we waded in so heavily back in 20 into energy was the confirmation of the trends in energy coming from two different relaible sources,one being the macro types eg yourself and DH analysing dollar liquidity and the other was @Cattle Prod confirming what the line of travel in terms of supply was looking like ie bad.

WHen I look at thsoe Dr Tim charts,it really does look bleak for a lot of sectors that aren't essential to life and relaint on disposable income.

I think you're absolutely right that our Politicians aren't seeing this train coming.At some point the expectations of the average Joe(welfare,pensions,NHS,benefits) and the ability of the economy  to deliver said expectations are going to diverge to a point where it's obvious to 80% of people that it's unsustainable and that's when I suspect we'll start to see the rise of extrmeist parties on both sides and some cities witness a rise in street violence/political protest..

SP, I think what you have outlined there is all probably true.  However I find i'm increasingly worried that our politicians actually do know what's coming. I mean what if the 'Convid experiment' was judged by TPTB to be a success in terms of control, media manipulation, etc, and that the Ukraine war is now the 'follow up'? People stayed home to save the NHS/their granny, so why wouldn't they do the same and much much more to save the planet?                                                                                                                                                   I guess my fear is that the green agenda will rear its ugly head again soon, but this time with a disingenuous political mashup for a fight-back/mitigation policies against the energy shortages, supply chain breakdowns, and Putin's immoral war... I'm rambling a bit here I know, and perhaps even verging into tin-foil territory, then again perhaps the last 2 years have just made me paranoid? However the shockingly spastic policy responses from our politicians since Ukraine does cause me to think a massive global policy initiative is being contemplated? But what form it might take, I don't know.                                                                                                                                  (I don't follow David Ike - promise! -  but if there are some here that do, is he perhaps saying this is the biggest problem/reaction/solution event in history?)

[Don Coglione]

6 minutes ago, JMD said:

SP, I think what you have outlined there is all probably true.  However I find i'm increasingly worried that our politicians actually do know what's coming. I mean what if the 'Convid experiment' was judged by TPTB to be a success in terms of control, media manipulation, etc, and that the Ukraine war is now the 'follow up'? People stayed home to save the NHS/their granny, so why wouldn't they do the same and much more to save the planet? I'm fearing that the green agenda will rear its ugly head again soon, but this time with a disingenuous political mashup to a fight-back/mitigation against energy shortages, supply chain breakdowns, and Putin's immoral war... I'm rambling a bit here I know, and perhaps even verging into tin-foil territory - but the shockingly spastic policy responses from our politicians since Ukraine causes me to think a massive global policy initiative is being contemplated?         (I don't follow David Ike, but if there are some here that do, is he perhaps saying this is the biggest problem/reaction/solution event in history?)

Is the entire climate agenda arse-backwards? Officially, it's "fossil fuels are destroying the planet, we must act to save it", but what if it's really "oh shit, the fossil fuels are running out and life is about to get really, really shit, so we need to get people softened up for what's coming, we'll dress it up as saving the planet"?

[Loki]

12 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

Is the entire climate agenda arse-backwards? Officially, it's "fossil fuels are destroying the planet, we must act to save it", but what if it's really "oh shit, the fossil fuels are running out and life is about to get really, really shit, so we need to get people softened up for what's coming, we'll dress it up as saving the planet"?

While increasing control as a bonus