Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

30 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My sons pension is in NEST,no choice.They wont care.That idiot women in charge will get her massive salary while the lowest paid lose out.The public sector and worse these thrid sector as Labour called them can and do just increase their pay and conditions whenever their policies make society poorer.

Take the council my partner works.The managers are now doing "hybrid" working.One day a week in the office,4 at home.Service is collapsing,supposed to be 14 nurse responders on a nightshift,she had 7 last night.So old folks not getting the service,frontline workers shafted,council tax payers robbed of more and more yet the bosses sat at home accountable to nobody.Sunaks answer as we knew it would be isnt a new one,its the oldest,inflation.

"As I walked onto the battlefield, I saw cants to the left, shysters to the right, and wonkers to the fore.  Today was going to be gloriously honourable".  Harley, The Great War, 2021.

 

[invalid]

13 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

I'm with DB to some extent - next year's crypto bear or secular bust (take your pick) will fully kill off the vast majority of shitcoins. What happens to Bitcoin is the interesting question (to me)

 

The shitcoins really do need to die off.

ETH moving to POS next year might trigger something in the crypto space.

 

[kibuc]

20 minutes ago, invalid said:

 

The shitcoins really do need to die off.

ETH moving to POS next year might trigger something in the crypto space.

 

As a relative noob in the space, what would you classify as shitcoins? BTC and ETH are considered legit by the community, but what about other big hitters like XRP, Litecoin, Cardano or even Binance Coin? Do you see the space as BTC & ETH and then everything else, or do you see validity & utility in some of the other coins?

[jamtomorrow]

58 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Do you see the space as BTC & ETH and then everything else, or do you see validity & utility in some of the other coins?

That's how I see it.

Bitcoin is first and foremost a technology standard, and the history of standards adoption would suggest winner-takes-all network effects are *everything* (aka: Metcalfe's Law). Bitcoin is VHS, not Betamax. Bitcoin is Ethernet, not Token Ring.

Lyn Alden wrote a nice article about this, observing that a challenger needs to be 10x "better" to displace an incumbent in situations where network effects dominate. So yes, some of the shitcoins have a somewhat better utility proposition in some aspects, but they're nowhere near clearing that 10x barrier.

It's why the market will ultimately prefer a layer 2 solution like Lightning to address the problem of transaction costs over Doge and Litecoin.

[Barnsey]

FYI 

 

[reformed nice guy]

Hopefully this titbit doesnt identify myself too much, but my local village council gets grants from a local windfarm. This came in today:

Infrastructure Investments Fund (“IIF”), an investment vehicle advised by J.P. Morgan Investment Management, has recently reached an agreement to take over *the company that gives the grants*

 

[DoINeedOne]

Autumn Budget is about to start are we all ready to get fucked

[DurhamBorn]

Debt under control 

[DurhamBorn]

Everyday spending to balance says QE ending in around 12 months.

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Everyday spending to balance says QE ending in around 12 months.

Something about by the third year of the plan period. So, maybe not

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Axeman123 said:

Something about by the third year of the plan period. So, maybe not

Yes need to see the documents later,likely BOE have indicated when.

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes need to see the documents later,likely BOE have indicated when.

100%. Something also about only borrowing to invest, presumably some creative Sleepy Joe style creative use of langauge will turn all spending into investment

[Castlevania]

Property developer tax is interesting. 4% surcharge on profits above £25m.

[Noallegiance]

Budgets of the future are going to sound weird without "We've found £Xbillion down the back of the sofa for Leeds. We've found £xmillion under the stairs for Wales. But borrowing is down!" etc.

[HousePriceMania]

10 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Property developer tax is interesting. 4% surcharge on profits above £25m.

So he hands them our taxes to push up prices, then he takes back 4% of the inflated price that the idiot buyers have had to born extra to pay for

 

These people are beyond evil·

[Castlevania]

Sunak seems to be planning to spend like a sailor on shore leave

[Axeman123]

Just now, HousePriceMania said:

So he hands them our taxes to push up prices, then he takes back 4% of the inflated price that the idiot buyers have had to born extra to pay for

 

These people are beyond evil·

Would Barrett etc be considered "developers"? If not then most developers use a fresh LTD company for each development, so only projects generating more than the threshold would be stung.

[DoINeedOne]

Budget 

Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak and co....

 

 

TaxPayers

[Axeman123]

Increasing tax on banks! Not what we were expecting

[Axeman123]

Cheaper domestic flights, presumably to offset cancelling HS2. Bit spicy right before COP

Booze...

[HousePriceMania]

39 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Everyday spending to balance says QE ending in around 12 months. ( SOUNDS LIKE THE US TAPER PLAN )

Thought QE was ending in 12 days ?

[Axeman123]

5% relief on draft sold in pubs

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Thought QE was ending in 12 days ?

Need to see documents later.

[Axeman123]

The government can't do everything - positive I think

[Axeman123]

Uh oh, UC taper