Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Haha I look forward to it Someone needs to get hold of some yellow reduced stickers so we can use them as name tags

No, they would recognize the Dosbods party group by the 'squeeking from their ar$e$'....although the Bar manager might get confused and keep on oiling the front door!

[leonardratso]

16 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

So I've reviewed my poxy Nest company pension choices, I'm very fickle so guess what I went with?

err, sharia?

[JMD]

On 20/05/2022 at 11:14, Noallegiance said:

It's almost as though shutting the economy but giving businesses money was another can-kicking exercise.......

I agree, but those interventions could only ever have been short term and tactical can-kicking until 'something' more structural turned up... And then Ukraine happened - voila!! (Hence my earlier post describing my fears for the worst, but really hope I'm wrong, I had 2030 penciled before things turned really sour)

[Pip321]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Err, the women?...

...assuming of course 'that is the way you swing' as we say 'Down South' :-)

For some reason my Avatar is strangely drawn to these beauties. I think I may have ‘met’ them in the past……’tits oot for the lads’.   

[JMD]

On 20/05/2022 at 15:37, Yadda yadda yadda said:

How many people are that dumb? The people I know that are on benefits are intelligent. They just found themselves in the situation where benefits paid better than working because they were mums at a young age. Although I suppose it is a small and biased sample as I wouldn't interact with them if they were thick. Or ugly.

About 15% of people have IQ below 85 and this is the approx level (it varies from year to year depending on moving percentile levels) that US military deny applications. Of course IQ, rather like race, is a social construct, so across most of the West it has become a metric that dare not speak it name... Even James Watson, he of the helix, got into very hot water over these things.

[JMD]

On 20/05/2022 at 17:39, Axeman123 said:

Cousin Bum couldn't get anywhere in showbiz mind...

...perhaps so, but all soon to change once the recently announced Oscar diversity rules are implemented.

[JMD]

On 20/05/2022 at 18:30, Castlevania said:

The easy money has been made. Buy insolvency practitioners when the economy is booming; sell when it’s not. They’re back at around the level I sold the last of my holding at the start of last year. 

All that talk of business cycles is triggering me...  I'll have you know that Gordon Brown stood at the despatch box and told parliament that he'd solved the economic boom-bust cycle. That was back in the early naughties - in fact not long after he'd sold all our gold - and before the decade had ended, he would go on to save the banking system (at the time he actually thought he'd saved the whole world, but his Presbyterian humbleness prevented him from stating this aloud in public).

[JMD]

On 20/05/2022 at 19:01, stoobs said:

This always puzzles me, how do a tiny minority who own nearly everything control an enormous majority?

In modern UK this comes down to the Tories (and likely other parties) performing some astonishing mind-control trick where they manage to convince the Peasants that they too will become Lords given enough time. Therefore don't rock the boat by forcibly taking ownership of the biggest land estate in your locality.

Yes, the mind control trick was to initially bribe sufficient numbers of the population with so called "trickle down' (a term popularised in the 80s but been going on for centuries) economics, and in more recent times with trickle down democracy. However the 'real economy' and 'real democracy' are hidden from and therefore denied to the majority, but that's another topic entirely.

[JMD]

On 20/05/2022 at 19:47, ThoughtCriminal said:

I think most of us are Gen X, give or take, so I'd say what we're going to see as we enter the path to our twilight years is the inversion of the 80s/90s: that meteoric rise in living standards and new tech etc will be mirrored by the decline and reversion to the mean.

 

I think life without cheap energy will look something like the 50s. Minus the homogeneous, high trust society society.

 

I don't know if anyone is familiar with Peter Thiel, but his big thing has always been that we've been stagnating for a long time now. He points out that air travel is now slower (demise of Concorde), the record for the fastest transatlantic crossing was set in 1952, not been back to the moon in more than 50 years. 

 

The end of cheap energy probably seals the deal.

Peter Thiel is an interesting character, founder of PayPal, etc. I feel he speaks in code a lot of the time so not to scare the public! But yes he believes the last 50 years have been squandered and we now operate under a completely dislocated economy and totally disfunctional political system. In terms of dislocation/disfunction and squandered time frames - in particular regard to rising world population and its social expectations - i think he has said that until we get fusion energy working, the world is under great existential risk of breakdown and chaos.

[JMD]

8 hours ago, leonardratso said:

nearly;

https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2022-03-01/not-so-simples-russian-meerkats-aleksandr-and-sergei-pulled-from-news-ads

Not quite the toys themselves, but the ad campaign i suppose, maybe they'll make a comeback with ukranian accents, is there much difference?

Difference in Slavic accents? The media seemed curiously well primed to pronounce Kiev(Russian) as Keeeee'eev(Ukrainian) from the get go. Not making light of the war there, but it still irritates me because it is I think an example of the media political gesturing and worse that we have been subjected to from the beginning of the conflict.

[JMD]

On 20/05/2022 at 12:34, Noallegiance said:

The title is about gold, but there's loads more great stuff in here:

 

Ok listened only to the first few minutes so far, but is 'London Paul' actually Paul Joseph-Watson, the right wing youtuber and blogger? If so don't get me wrong as that's not necessarily a problem, however it would mean he's appearing under false pretences as I'm sure Joseph-Watson was never a physicist or a metals trader!... Anyway, just saying, and maybe listen to it before it gets taken down?

[WICAO]

9 hours ago, Plan-b said:

So I've reviewed my poxy Nest company pension choices, I'm very fickle so guess what I went with?

Theres 5 choices so vote accordingly  

You only have 5 investment choices and not one that buys the market?

[CVG]

9 hours ago, leonardratso said:

err, sharia?

Mmm. It's terrible really. Although amusing, be wary of the Sharia fund. It only invests in around 90 companies rather than 2000 odd. Look here:

https://transparency.platform.tumelo.com/nest/30123f5a-acfd-47d7-91ed-4e8b1e54e4d9

 

[Transistor Man]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

This ^ .Its very likely thats why.I dont see many trees going up on all the grouse moors.I think the whole thing is about getting the plebs to consume less oil and gas so it lasts longer for the rich.They also know they need 40 to 50 years for renewables.If they want to save the planet they could start by planting trees etc into all these huge areas of council owned grass,yet very little happens.

I’ve come to think similar.

There must be a desire to limIt the lives of ordinary people too. 

They could have gone with a little coal + scrubbers + burying fast growing trees, underground, or just under soil. That could trap a lot of carbon for thousands of years.

But those ideas are of zero interest. 

[THE SOUP DRAGON]

46 minutes ago, WICAO said:

You only have 5 investment choices and not one that buys the market?

It's a  NEST,  a government backed scheme for small employers to ensure everyone has an additional pension to their state pension. I never hear anything positive from them. Famously known hear for dumping BP at a very low price.

Fund choices | Nest Pensions

[Lightscribe]

They could of put heavy restrictions on corporate mega ship dredging of ocean floors (which contains around 38000 gigatones of carbon and 16 times as much as the terrestrial biosphere) at the same time as wiping out a few levels of bio diversity and the food chain in one fell swoop.

They could have put heavy restrictions on China which accounts for 28% of the worlds carbon output and won’t even peak to 2027. Although good job Australia have voted to now fuck themselves over even though they are 16th on the list of carbon footprint producing 1% of the worlds of global output.

They could have put heavy restrictions on the deforestation in South America which loses 2.6 million hectares of forest per year.

The reason why they don’t do all these things because it’s all a load of bollocks. The fiat system went from gold/silver to the petrodollar. They were always going to rinse every last bit of profit out of oil until there wasn’t going to viable reserves on a global scale anymore.

Now comes the hard landing. Pre-conditioning to consume less, use less energy, pay more for it. Climate change is the reason given, necessity to maintain structural order with far less is the basis behind it.

The population ‘problem’ has already been solved within one generation of the young not being able to afford a house or kids (Or indeed the media indoctrination to even have the inclination to do so). That’s why there’s no ‘normal’ coming back.

Question is what happens when/if the frogs realise the water is getting warm.

https://www.bitchute.com/video/xqMGDM7Khncc/

 

[King Penda]

47 minutes ago, THE SOUP DRAGON said:

It's a  NEST,  a government backed scheme for small employers to ensure everyone has an additional pension to their state pension. I never hear anything positive from them. Famously known hear for dumping BP at a very low price.

Fund choices | Nest Pensions

Whose funds will be robbed by a government in the future 

[working woman]

Re what is the real agenda.  The powers that be have known for years that we would run out of oil and gas someday, how could they not know. I've been aware of it for the last 20 years at least.  I often have discussions with my husband about it, how they must have a plan to deal with it, and he says no, humans are hopeless and just deals with crises as they crop up. You just need to watch some drivers on the motorways who seem to only look 1m ahead.   I guess we are going to find out which one of us is right. Maybe a mixture of both.

Re Watch what the wealthy do etc.................

With an interest in fashion, I like to see what the Duchess of Cambridge is wearing, as she is one of the most influential women in the country.  At the recent premier for a Tom Cruise film, she wore a lovely Roland Mouret dress. Now, I would have thought by now she would have been exploring all the "Sustainable Fashion" fashion brands, given how Princes Charles and William are so concerned about environmental issues.  An interest in SF is pretty mainsteam now for younger generations.  She has worn the most beautiful dresses in the past and could easily wear them again, or cut them up to make something "new", but no.  It was a pretty plain and minimal style, so maybe that his her thinking of what SF is.

Meanwhile, on the news this morning, a feature on saris made in India, made in the traditional low energy way, hand operated cotton looms and weaving looms.  The resulting fabric was very fine and beautiful. I think I have seen a glimpse of the future.

[Animal Spirits]

20 hours ago, Errol said:

 

How will they approach the sale of MBS, if at all? They'll end up holding them to maturity (which is years) unless they sell at a sizeable loss. Where's the bid for a 2% MBS given the spread that now exists between these and newly issued MBS?

If the Fed makes a loss it also means remittance payments to the Treasury stop.

[Axeman123]

2 hours ago, CVG said:

Mmm. It's terrible really. Although amusing, be wary of the Sharia fund. It only invests in around 90 companies rather than 2000 odd. Look here:

https://transparency.platform.tumelo.com/nest/30123f5a-acfd-47d7-91ed-4e8b1e54e4d9

 

How is buying Alphabet and Amazon etc "sharia"? Obviously I don't see any Diageo (grog),but then I do see Mastercard and Visa (Usury). Is sharia just a scam like ESG?

90 companies is way too concentrated, but it is nice to see miners and oil.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

I’ve come to think similar.

There must be a desire to limIt the lives of ordinary people too. 

They could have gone with a little coal + scrubbers + burying fast growing trees, underground, or just under soil. That could trap a lot of carbon for thousands of years.

But those ideas are of zero interest. 

Exactly.Look at the moors,devoid of trees so a few rich can shoot grouse (and anything that moves).Its also a great way for the rich land owners to extract rent from turbines,solar etc.Seems they want people to lose their cars etc,multi generational living in houses etc.I think those things are coming.Its all about consuming less for ordinary people.Of course putting bennies up at the same time will ensure systemic collapse.

[King Penda]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly.Look at the moors,devoid of trees so a few rich can shoot grouse (and anything that moves).Its also a great way for the rich land owners to extract rent from turbines,solar etc.Seems they want people to lose their cars etc,multi generational living in houses etc.I think those things are coming.Its all about consuming less for ordinary people.Of course putting bennies up at the same time will ensure systemic collapse.

Bennies will go up the question will be will I be Geting any of them before I’m back at work

[Napoleon Dynamite]

2 hours ago, CVG said:

Mmm. It's terrible really. Although amusing, be wary of the Sharia fund. It only invests in around 90 companies rather than 2000 odd. Look here:

https://transparency.platform.tumelo.com/nest/30123f5a-acfd-47d7-91ed-4e8b1e54e4d9

 

Yep very tech heavy.

Looks like it's performed well, but I bet those figures are now out of date and are no longer look so good.

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

10 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Bennies will go up the question will be will I be Geting any of them before I’m back at work

Bennies have to go up at a lower rate than inflation or else employment collapses. The only people left working average wage jobs will be those with mortgages - how many of us are there? Most of the young rent whilst a lot of 50 and 60 somethings own outright. At some point inflation would go stratospheric as even less is produced. The pound would collapse or some other trigger would bring everything down.

[King Penda]

1 minute ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Bennies have to go up at a lower rate than inflation or else employment collapses. The only people left working average wage jobs will be those with mortgages - how many of us are there? Most of the young rent whilst a lot of 50 and 60 somethings own outright. At some point inflation would go stratospheric as even less is produced. The pound would collapse or some other trigger would bring everything down.

It’s a perfect opitunity to start with food stamps ie a top up which can be withdrawn has inflation fluctuates