Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

7 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Burry has no doubt where we're heading.

I've sold out 50% of my holdings now.

I have oil/miners and shorts left.  

I will keep going over the next week or so.

Sell in May and watch the crash

Definitely buy back by the end of the year.

 

15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Weathy calling for a wealth tax. The governbankment will tax those at the Durham instead of the Davos Summit. The very wealthy will escape it.

 

 

The great unwashed are thick

[Transistor Man]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Anyone know what's happening here....

Biggest holdings include Tesla, nvidia 

[invalid]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

Right to buy off Private Landlords would do the trick.

 

I love that, what an awesome idea.

Please somebody suggest it to Boris and Rishi.

[GTM]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

Anyone know what's happening here....

I've been telling my mate to consider selling that junk for ages. He's rode it up though and he's going to ride it back down. It is absolutely loaded to the gunwales with US Tech. Big position in Tesla as well. Its going to be utterly crushed in the months ahead. 

[Democorruptcy]

Nice timing by the BoE after the HSBC exec questioned so much focus on climate change financing.

Quote

 

UK banks and insurers that fail to manage the risks associated with climate change could suffer a 10-15 per cent hit to their annual profits, the Bank of England warned on Tuesday.

The results of the regulator’s inaugural “climate stress test” indicated that banks could incur up to £225bn in credit losses by 2050, while insurers’ asset values could fall 15 per cent under a worst-case scenario.

But the analysis suggested that the losses would be “absorbable for banks and insurers, without a worrying direct impact on their solvency”, said Sam Woods, head of the BoE’s Prudential Regulation Authority. The exercise will not be used to set higher capital requirements, he said.

The stress test looked at the exposure of the largest 19 UK banks and insurers to climate-related risks — both physical risks, such as flooding, and “transition” risks, such as potential regulatory or policy changes.

The analysis tested companies’ end-2020 balance sheets against three climate scenarios: an orderly transition, in which temperatures increase to 1.8C of warming by 2050, a disorderly transition where temperatures also increase to 1.8C of warming but action is delayed and more chaotic, and no additional action, where no further policies are introduced and global temperatures increase by 3.3C relative to pre-industrial levels.

The issue of banks’ responsibilities on climate was thrown into the spotlight last week, when a senior HSBC executive said central bankers were overstating the financial risks of warming in an attempt to “out-hyperbole the next guy”.

Stuart Kirk, global head of responsible investing at the bank’s asset management division, has since been suspended pending an internal investigation into his comments.

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F0d09f5c4-b88e-440f-9d2f-598ee71281c9

 

 

[Loki]

12 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Nice timing by the BoE after the HSBC exec questioned so much focus on climate change financing.

 

Collapse the world financial system

 

Blame it on the sky

 

Trough billions

 

Nice work if you can get it

[HousePriceMania]

21 minutes ago, GTM said:

I've been telling my mate to consider selling that junk for ages. He's rode it up though and he's going to ride it back down. It is absolutely loaded to the gunwales with US Tech. Big position in Tesla as well. Its going to be utterly crushed in the months ahead. 

There's a shit load of share price charts that now look like that.  if you can find one that's gone up like that and turned, it's worth considering shorting.

T'is exactly why I shorted Apple.  In a massive recession/depression they are screwed, no one is paying £1200 for a phone.

[Don Coglione]

13 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I haven't gone through their balance sheets, but I'd be amazed if their renewables business made much money. And Im in record saying their energy transition agenda should not be rushed till the tech is there. I'm very uncomfortable with how they are reacting to political prodding. Focus on your core business and tell the polos to fuck off. The yank oilies havebt forgotten that they are legally responsible to their shareholders, not vested interests.

As posted on here, I sold all my energy and oil stocks last month (bar Brazil, Russia and MacBeth, for different reasons), as I could see the politics rising against them. I wish that I had kept Exxon though, as even Biden's puppet-master string-pullers wouldn't dare chase them in this way, surely?

[DoINeedOne]

I Still hold Gazprom, don't really have a choice in the matter 

 

 

[Don Coglione]

2 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

I Still hold Gazprom, don't really have a choice in the matter 

 

 

#metoo.

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

#metoo.

I bought Drax today. Can I join in?

[StrugglingMillennial]

On 17/05/2022 at 08:12, Boon said:

 

I saw this earlier on the news, apologies for using the Beeb link 🤢

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61562651.amp

I doubt this will be the last company we hear making a statement like this.

 

[Animal Spirits]

3 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I've never been a cocktail bar tender

But you could own a boat.

[HousePriceMania]

I thought this was made up till I saw the video
 

 

[M S E Refugee]

Bulgaria reconsidering ruble gas payments https://www.rt.com/business/556020-bulgaria-reconsidering-ruble-gas-payments/

I thought the Bulgarians had secured a supply of LNG from Sleepy Joe.

[Libspero]

54 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

As posted on here, I sold all my energy and oil stocks last month

Conversely I “hedged” against a BK with energy, miners, some emerging markets, Mariachi shares and a bit of Vodaphone and Imperial Tobacco back in about March time.

So far energy and miners have been my best investment (BERI.L).   Up 17.8% in a couple of months 

Doubt it will last..  but so far so good.

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, Libspero said:

Conversely I “hedged” against a BK with energy, miners, some emerging markets, Mariachi shares and a bit of Vodaphone and Imperial Tobacco back in about March time.

So far energy and miners have been my best investment (BERI.L).   Up 17.8% in a couple of months 

Doubt it will last..  but so far so good.

I diversified a bit but was mostly in oil/gas/utilities and real stuff.

The diversified shares are all down, and the oil etc way up.  luckily I was heavily biased towards the good stuff.

I feel a lot more relaxed having sold out half.  

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

% of only 42,000 people, youguv polls haven't proved very accurate in recent times. Founded by a Tory Nadim Zahawi.

Won't go after pensions? They scrapped the 'triple lock' last year. It was a temporary measure but we now how they turn out. I'm not convinced the oldies might think they were saved by government policy. A lot of the infected were chucked  into care homes. A lot were Mattazolamed. Average age died "with" covid was 80 last time I checked. 

Betfair punters see coalition govt for UK next GE.It's hard to disagree with that on the grounds that a lot of the soically conservative labour voters who voted Brexit will not return their red wall votes and they likely won't vote Tory either.Tories lsot the 40-50 age group at the last GE for the first time and I suspect the cost of living/expensive housing/no school places means they won't be returning either.

Looking at my own vote(I'm 51,long term Ukip voter until 2019),I won't be voting Tory or Labour.I won't be the only alienated by the corruption moral/financial in Westminster.

Which  virtually guarantees some form of electoral reform under a Lib/Lab govt which could spell doom for the Tories.Labour are well aware that they could be shut out of power for years by the skewed pro Tory electoral system we currently have.

Interesting article on the admittedly left wing Political Betting site

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/05/22/something-to-ponder/

If the Tories lose the next election, changes to the voting system (always demanded by the Lib Dems) may see them locked out of office for a generation. And what happens if the Tories discover, in opposition, that its new coalition of voters doesn’t have much in common post-Brexit? The party could, literally, fall apart.

In one sense, the Tories have more to fear from a Starmer-led coalition than an outright Labour victory. The reason electoral reform has never happened is that the first-past-the-post system tends to create majority governments and so suits both Labour and the Tories when they are doing well. So, once in office, they lose interest in reform. Even a Labour leader like Blair, who was sympathetic towards the idea of a “progressive alliance”, wasn’t going to change the Westminster voting system that delivered him a 179-seat majority. But a Labour Party that had failed to get 326 seats, and hadn’t garnered a majority in close to two decades, would be far more open to electoral reform. And this would be the price demanded by Lib Dems for their support in a hung parliament.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

My portfolio hit a record high today once some divis landed.Now i dont expect to avoid pain,and i see some areas that might be a bit exposed,but given whats going on it shows we have navigated the most difficult cycle turn in three generations very well indeed.

Look at idiot stuff like Snap down from $83 to $12 

Vanguard 60/40 and Fundsmith will be upsetting a few people when they get their report from their IFA ,used to drawing down 4% or 5% paying fees and seeing small increases to seeing outright drops and 10%+ gone for starters nominal.

[M S E Refugee]

https://news.sky.com/story/partygate-govt-poised-to-announce-multibillion-pound-cost-of-living-package-as-sue-gray-report-expected-12620711

Hyperinflation on the cards?

[Don Coglione]

12 minutes ago, Libspero said:

Conversely I “hedged” against a BK with energy, miners, some emerging markets, Mariachi shares and a bit of Vodaphone and Imperial Tobacco back in about March time.

So far energy and miners have been my best investment (BERI.L).   Up 17.8% in a couple of months 

Doubt it will last..  but so far so good.

I bailed at an aggregate +100% up (which was a massive £ number). I sleep OK...

[Pip321]

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

 

WTF !!!

Nice find.

This is a tricky one. CGT on houses isn’t like shares, you can’t wrap them in ISAs, SIPPs or most importantly you can’t sell part of a property each tax year like you might do with shares…..it’s unavoidable. And not only is it unavoidable by being unable to do partial sales, it’s also a higher rate than other assets. Without an inflation allowance many properties will have CGT due on them. 

However, there is a simple way to avoid it and that is not to sell…..ever. That might be a ‘bad decision’ but I bet it’s a decision many amateurs take rather than pay an example £80k 28% tax bill on chunky profits  

So for unencumbered LLs it becomes a question of why would I sell if I sell for £400k but will only get £320k. The mindset is what can i buy for £320k that is equivalent to my £400k house.

For the moron who have leveraged up say 90% then it’s worse. If they sell for £400k, have debts of £380k and will only see £320k they just won’t sell.

So they wait until death. That’s IHT but that can be mitigated and also the government may want some money now.

I am not in anyway defending lowering CGT and completely understand the tone on this thread….I have been part of this and know many landlords so I know how daft it’s all been. I also know there are million other (and many better) suggestions to collect revenue from rentals. 

However, I can see if he lowers CGT in property to the same rate as other assets then it absolutely will encourage more sales.

It won’t produce more housing….but higher interest rates and less incentives will also move prices down to a more affordable level. A shift back to owner occupier…always a vote winner. 

[Shamone]

10 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Our only real hope is if the sheeple reject all this and we get something genuinely different

Then there is no hope. 

[Libspero]

2 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

I bailed at an aggregate +100% up (which was a massive £ number). I sleep OK...

Yep,  I definitely missed the best bit of the energy dip that you guys spotted.

I’m not really looking to “play the market”..   mainly because I’m sure it would kick my ass.  I’m just trying to keep ahead of inflation with a conservative “macro” strategy.

[Shamone]

9 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

This arrived this morning, a 1oz 2015 Gold Year of the Sheep.

It has been the Year of the Sheep every year since 2019.

Looks lovely, what % tungsten is it?