Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[nirvana]

US markets got fukked overnight.....

[sleepwello'nights]

7 hours ago, Hancock said:

If i was retired i'd be looking at a few months in the Canary Islands to enjoy life and watch Britain implode this winter.

Be cheap as chips to stay there i'd imagine.

Tricky to avoid the covid restrictions imposed on travel. So far I've avoided anything to do with the testing nonsense and intend to do so for as long as I can.

Vive la resitance!

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Just spoke to mate that buys and sells energy and he said its on that much of a knife edge it'll only take a couple of windless days and it'll be panic stations. 

 

Hard to overstate how badly we've been governed over the last 25 years to reach the stage where we're looking at wind forecasts to see if we can keep the lights on. 

We need Michael Fish for PM then:

 

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Just had an email from our electricity supplier. Ceased trading and we will be transferred to a new supplier in a few days!. Had a quick look on switching sites and looks as if our tariff will double in price!

All the cash I'm holding for the BK might have to be used for food and power. Ah well. 

No, put your partner on a diet and buy them a jumper for Christmas :-)

[ThoughtCriminal]

"The green revolution is here everyone! China is joining us! It's going to be beauti...........Oh bollocks. "

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

If you scroll down this page (https://gridwatch.co.uk/?oldgw=) and look at the graphs you can see a few things. Firstly we have had a lot of wind power this week. We ought to be filling up the little storage we have. Secondly you can see how much more energy and especially gas we used this spring and early summer compared to last year. The other thing that is obvious is that electricity use is already seasonal. Two points from that. We're going to be in trouble if we have a windless week this winter. Also switching to electric-based heating will increase that seasonality. That means even more spare capacity is required. It is really dumb to try encourage this without a plan in place for that power.

Yes, but Boris has got to be able to stand up at COP24 this year and lecture the world on how stupid they have been!

[Loki]

56 minutes ago, nirvana said:

US markets got fukked overnight.....

And then some

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Yes, but Boris has got to be able to stand up at COP24 this year and lecture the world on how stupid they have been!

And to inform the crony cunts the uk ( working?)  plebs are open, more than ever, to pillage. 

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

And then some

Time to buy or is it starting big time?

[belfastchild]

5 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Yes, but Boris has got to be able to stand up at COP24 this year and lecture the world on how stupid they have been!

Will be really funny if its by candlelight.
I'll be keeping an eye on the threads over on netweather for long cold, still spells...
 

In other news a monster box of silver brits is almost the same price as I bought in july 2020.

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Time to buy or is it starting big time?

that's the advanced course....

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Hancock said:

If i was retired i'd be looking at a few months in the Canary Islands to enjoy life and watch Britain implode this winter.

Be cheap as chips to stay there i'd imagine.

Had a friend who did just that. His business was teaching outdoor pursuits, so seasonal to 6 months. He then spent the other colder 6 months on a retreat in India. He had worked out that the savings on a) rent, and b) heating made his lifestyle cheaper/viable.....`thinking outside the conventional box`

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Time to buy or is it starting big time?

I don't think this is 'it'...just my opinion though

[Harley]

Energy "crisis".  COP26 - and the band played on.  "Let them rub sticks".

[Harley]

9 hours ago, Hancock said:

If i was retired i'd be looking at a few months in the Canary Islands to enjoy life and watch Britain implode this winter.

Be cheap as chips to stay there i'd imagine.

My plan was to travel around Europe in a van.  And then.......

[ThoughtCriminal]

22 minutes ago, Loki said:

I don't think this is 'it'...just my opinion though

We'll know when this is it when Jeremy Irons is jabbing the table screaming "This is IT!". 

25 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Will be really funny if its by candlelight.
I'll be keeping an eye on the threads over on netweather for long cold, still spells...
 

In other news a monster box of silver brits is almost the same price as I bought in july 2020.

Where are those Brits at B? 

[belfastchild]

5 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

We'll know when this is it when Jeremy Irons is jabbing the table screaming "This is IT!". 

Where are those Brits at B? 

goldsilver.be had them in stock yesterday.

[Harley]

27 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

In other news a monster box of silver brits is almost the same price as I bought in july 2020.

A timely shout out.  I just had a look on Bullionvault  Still a hard buy at 20% VAT plus c.30% premium.  However, the monster boxes are less expensive per coin versus individual coins.  £26 v £28, which is more than I expected.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Another day another parabolic European Gas chart. 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

US markets got fukked overnight.....

My US stocks didn't do anything unusual.  Nor did the indicies.  Am I missing something?  Maybe I'm looking at the US close data?  That said, the SPX appears to be in a technical downtrend on the daily, weekly, and possibly soon monthly.

What I did notice is possible signs of life in some of my PM miners, especially against a general down day.  GFI for example up 4.77%.

[Harley]

I moved onto my new fixed electric tariff today (I hope!).  Up a lot on the last one but at least below current rates and the new cap.  Amazing how much things can change in a few days.

[Majorpain]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Nice to see someon else using the GSR as a sell tool.

Goldies had a run today,but have been battered of late.Given how deep in the red real rates are that surprised me but the hopium is strong in New York and quarter point there offsets 1%of CPI......go figure.

Would be interested to know if the hive mind has a viable explanation for their underperformance?

PM/Miners are underperforming because Treasury yields/DXY are going up as the chance of a US default on Sovereign debt interest increases.

It probably makes more sense if you've had a drink or 10!

[Sidd]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/09/30/ecosperity-week-2021-southeast-asia-green-economy-report.html

 

This will be big for the price of Silver I expect as I suspect much of that investment will make use of the raw material. It also gives me comfort in investing for the long term gains as it has been mentioned that Silver will be one of the best performers over the cycle.

[Castlevania]

21 minutes ago, Harley said:

My US stocks didn't do anything unusual.  Nor did the indicies.  Am I missing something?  Maybe I'm looking at the US close data?  That said, the SPX appears to be in a technical downtrend on the daily, weekly, and possibly soon monthly.

What I did notice is possible signs of life in some of my PM miners, especially against a general down day.  GFI for example up 4.77%.

The PM miners simply retraced the losses from Wednesday.

[Castlevania]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Nice to see someon else using the GSR as a sell tool.

Goldies had a run today,but have been battered of late.Given how deep in the red real rates are that surprised me but the hopium is strong in New York and quarter point there offsets 1%of CPI......go figure.

Would be interested to know if the hive mind has a viable explanation for their underperformance?

Things are about to get really expensive for Danish taxpayers.

Sentiment is awful.

However, watch the commercials at the Comex for the smart money.

[Harley]

13 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

PM/Miners are underperforming because Treasury yields/DXY are going up as the chance of a US default on Sovereign debt interest increases.

It probably makes more sense if you've had a drink or 10!

Personally I cannot see an outright debt default, more one as part of a Breton Woods style monetary reset, and I see that a little while off (whatever that means these days).  I leave it to my betters here to postulate how that can be done.  I can absolutely see a move into miners though, whatever DXY does (which is in a good monthly uptrend even if overbought on the weekly and daily charts).  GDX looks to still be in a monthly downtrend but there are signs in the daily of a potential bottoming so DXY/GDX could indeed be doing their inverted dance.  Drilling down the next level, as mentioned upthread, some signs of bottoming in some PM stocks (again!) so again, they could be showing early signs for the GDX.  All very fickle atm though so DYOR.