Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[feed]

 

Another house price boom and more generational debt, that's exactly what we need.

 

[M S E Refugee]

2 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Agree…..but with a slightly different take (possibly)

I just wonder if this isn’t game over as such…but part of the game. Ie rather the West (well the US) knew they were already ‘defeated’ and without Ukraine/Sanctions etc creating a world divide then the US and the dollar was only a decade away from ending.

So with a proper split the US can control the new West, get lots of back handers for ‘the chosen few’ from weapons and repatriation of production west. So whilst poorer than they were….they are richer than they would have been if the status quo would have been left as is for another decade or so.

And ‘we’ will welcome the change, the inflation, the new manual jobs due to anti east sentiment fed to us. A no politician gets hung from a lamppost…

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the Eastern European Countries who are currently hostile to Russia have a change of heart when they are cold and hungry.

The West look like stone-cold losers at the moment and who wants to be associated with a bunch of Woke losers.

I expect Dementia Joe to be jettisoned very soon.

[Axeman123]

9 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I expect Dementia Joe to be jettisoned very soon.

I have seen it claimed that the Dems cannot avoid running Biden next time, because they need to be able to claim "election interference" as a way to run static on the stolen election and Russia-gate etc.

It is incredible to think about the loss of American prestige and power in the less than two years since Biden took office. I would honestly assess the current position as comparable to just before Pearl Harbour.

31 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Saudis joining BRICS?

Who would want to be the yanks ally now? That replacement wannabe leader of Venezuela that they were recognising as legitimate - dumped for the guy the yanks were trying to force out just because they urgently need oil. The poor fools in Afghan that risked their arse to build the new democracy the yanks promised - thrown to the wolves because...something. Sooner or later Biden will ban LNG exports (IMO) to ease inflation in the US, and where will that leave the EU? The yanks even tried soft regime change on MBS in Saudi, with that Kashoggi stitch-up. Why the hell would he have love for them now?

[Lightscribe]

26 minutes ago, feed said:

 

Another house price boom and more generational debt, that's exactly what we need.

 

It really doesn’t matter what they throw at it, monetary cycles dictates all. I remember the exact same thing in the early 90’s in Japan just before it all imploded.

The politicians can try put whatever props in they like, they’ll try and round up the last of kippers before the debt ship goes down.

Ignore the noise, keep an eye on what’s happening on the shop floor.

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4577781-if-you-are-a-landlord-are-you-thinking-of-selling-up

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4573075-london-flat-market

 

[Lightscribe]

26 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I expect Dementia Joe to be jettisoned very soon.

I don’t. Far too much preparation, planning and collusion to get him in there in the first place. They’re not about to give up their prime stool pigeon now.

I know how about a digital ID to make any future elections secure and fair?

EU making inroads towards that soon.

https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/worldwide-digital-identity-and-security/government/magazine/eu-digital-id-wallet-coming-heres-what

[Barnsey]

Proactively been going against my normal anti social nature at work and trying to talk to as many colleagues hovering around min wage, the "why bother working" mentality is becoming so incredibly ingrained that I think Gov have to get off union's backs for a bit because these folks are giving up like there's no tomorrow if work no longer pays.

[Lightly Toasted]

5 hours ago, tank said:

Well, his tounge in cheek plan fails the first hurdle because stereotypical Shaz is not classified as 'unemployed'. She'll be 'working' 16 hours a week and being topped up to the tune of £25K a year if she can get her kids down with ADHD or whatever.

In work benefits and housing benefit make up most of the adult welfare bill, not the dole, so any significant reform would need address this area first. It would hit landlords and the rentier service sector very hard, so it would never happen. 

The dole itself is a pretty meagre existence where you get constantly hassled by the Job Centre. I wouldn't class £75 a week as a 'life of leisure' but others may disagree. 😀😀

The OP's plan amounted to workfare with the empty office as an employment-of-last-resort and there is no reason why Shaz should not be required to participate -- the fact that she's been feather-bedded up to now by having a favoured non-worker classification, doesn't mean that the privilege must (or will) always continue.

The other elephants in the room (setting pensions aside as not being "working age") are family benefits, disability benefits, social care, and housing benefit. All but social care* and that portion of disability that is genuine** could have an element of workfare. Massive and probably politically-impossible task getting there, though.

* clearly social care budgets need to be looked at as well.

** the disability classification started to be used in Thatcher's time, to disguise unemployment -- probably seemed like a cunning thing to do at the time, since "disabled" ex-miners and steel workers (past a certain age) were most unlikely to work again anyway.

 

[Axeman123]

37 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Ignore the noise, keep an eye on what’s happening on the shop floor.

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4573075-london-flat-market

Everyone should peruse that link, pure comedy gold! Lovely negative sentiment

My favourite posts:

"My experience is that service charges and the threats of annual rises by chamonix or firstport are killing flat sales. In 2012 my total charges were £1915. Today it is a shade under £8000, with a letter on my desk now talking about the post grenfell 'hard insurance market' which will add at least another £1200 on 1 january 2023... So £9000 charges next year.... £750/mo before mortgage, ctax, bills.

It isnt worth it. I know it, buyers know it. Give first port a chance and itll be 10,000 per annum in the blink of an eye.

DONT BUY A FLAT, ANY FLAT."

and:

"Couldnt give my 2bed flat away. The viewings came in dribs and drabs, but no semsible offers, most around 50 to 60 percent ask price. 1 guy photographed my flat inside out then offered 85% plus all my furniture, paintings, cutlery, pots n pans... I accepted, but asked for a night with his wife.... The estate agent of a posh firm didnt know what to say when I gave that proposal... But he did (to give him his dues) pass it on.

Overall, didnt sell, wasnt even close after 9mths on the market. Sitting empty now, waiting to see what rent rules Boris wants to introduce.

Grenfell cladding issues have made biyers so flaky. My flat has no such issue, but FirstPort managed which equals service charges of 5000pounds per annum, insurance of 2500ppunds per annum and 300 ground rent annually. Just killed the sale prospects. Just by Heathrow flat, nothing flash, quietish...

"cant give it away"....

Worst buy of my life, by miles. Awful."

(I do actually feel some sympathy for people that genuinely thought this was the only way to ever have a home, but the only way thins get better is by destroying all the missallocated capital IMO)

[Boglet]

36 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Proactively been going against my normal anti social nature at work and trying to talk to as many colleagues hovering around min wage, the "why bother working" mentality is becoming so incredibly ingrained that I think Gov have to get off union's backs for a bit because these folks are giving up like there's no tomorrow if work no longer pays.

Yep, I've had some eye opening conversations with the apprentices I manage. Especially the ones that have to drive 30+ miles a day or get a bus/train etc.

I direct them to the entitledto website and tell them to have a play making some assumptions about their situation that they could fairly easily bring about.

[Errol]

This article sums up where we are. Lots of other great articles on the site as well. Enjoy:

 

Bigger than you can imagine

...'Even as we struggle to reimagine the 1970s in an attempt to understand the current situation, the only people on Earth today who can even begin to imagine the economic and social horrors that await western populations are the survivors of the 1980s famine in Ethiopia, the hyperinflation in 1990s Zimbabwe, or, ironically, the Russians who survived the collapse of the Soviet Union'...

https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2022/07/01/bigger-than-you-can-imagine/

[Pip321]

I could do with an opinion…hope people don’t mind.

I tried to summarise the context of my other investment choices (eg why I am staying with my Pru SIPP which has limited fund choices, my temporary shift to about 45% cash within the SIPP due to long switch notice periods, but mitigated with direct investment in the ISA some stocks etc) but I end up reeling on and on… so I will just get to the question. 

I have spotted a fund in the SIPP “BlackRock Gold and General Class D Acc” 1.17% charge. Top 10 companies listed below…the usual suspects. Also the price has dipped a bit.

The main context here is my limited choice of juicy macro funds in the Pru and the investment would be only a small proportion….better than nothing? 

Interested to know if anyone uses this fund or similar as a hedge.

A HL version is also offered in similar terms.

https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/b/blackrock-gold-and-general-class-d1-accumulation

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

17 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

You've obviously not seen that video of the guy who hoovers the cracks in the pavement in the New York jewellery quarter.

 

THANKS Very interesting!

 

This could be my new sideline as the skip scavenging is a bit dire/quiet this summer, only thing is it's 2 hours on the train for me to London, still I can HIDE in the toilet when the ticket inspector makes his way down the aisle lol!

 

[Errol]

Why not just buy IAUP etf? Has pretty much the same equities in it.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IAUP.L/

[Pip321]

9 minutes ago, Errol said:

Why not just buy IAUP etf? Has pretty much the same equities in it.

Cheers.

The Pru SIPP offers hundreds of funds but they seem so generic and I can’t see IAUP.

Still helpful though because I will have a shifty at it to compare and contrast though. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

When anyone tries to tell you that the governing class are your intellectual superiors, just watch this and keep in mind that this stupid c*nt is the US energy secretary.

 

 

[Funn3r]

5 hours ago, Pip321 said:

Technically the state pension is by far and away the biggest element of the welfare bill making up almost half (42%) of the welfare bill. Incapacity and disability 16%. 

Your point is correct though….unemployment benefit is 1% whereas ‘family benefits, income support and tax credits’ are 18% and housing benefit a whopping 10%. 

For completeness the remaining 13% is personal social services and other benefits. 

Anyone under 50 expecting a nice state pension in retirement better not be holding their breath, which is really unfair if you are a young contributing worker. 😞

Is the state pension different from "normal bennies" though in that you only get it if you have a certified record of paying in? I get mine in a couple of weeks and I was surprised how meticulously they had recorded my contributions going back to my late teens.

I don't need the money, in fact I would really rather not because of how much extra will go in tax, but I decided not to defer taking it in case I end up never seeing any of it at all.

[Axeman123]

Raoul Pal does actual macro, and actually aligns with a lot of thread discussions:

 

[SpectrumFX]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

I could do with an opinion…hope people don’t mind.

I tried to summarise the context of my other investment choices (eg why I am staying with my Pru SIPP which has limited fund choices, my temporary shift to about 45% cash within the SIPP due to long switch notice periods, but mitigated with direct investment in the ISA some stocks etc) but I end up reeling on and on… so I will just get to the question. 

I have spotted a fund in the SIPP “BlackRock Gold and General Class D Acc” 1.17% charge. Top 10 companies listed below…the usual suspects. Also the price has dipped a bit.

The main context here is my limited choice of juicy macro funds in the Pru and the investment would be only a small proportion….better than nothing? 

Interested to know if anyone uses this fund or similar as a hedge.

A HL version is also offered in similar terms.

https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/b/blackrock-gold-and-general-class-d1-accumulation

I have the income version of it.

The fees high, but you've got to weigh that against the diversification you get, and what you'd spend in fees buying in and out of a bunch of companies to get similar diversification.

GDX does similar, and has lower fees, but is an ETF rather than a unit trust. Unit trusts are probably safer than ETFs, but I can't quantify whether the fee difference is a fair reflection of that difference in risk.

[Funn3r]

20 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

What is a "Tip of the spear trade"? Tried searching but just get stuff about video games.

[Funn3r]

I have moved my cash ISA to HL Stocks&Shares ISA. 

Now I want to do something about my crap works pension by moving it into a SIPP.

I like HL so far - is it reasonable (from an eggs in one basket perspective) to open the SIPP also at HL, or do people typically choose somewhere else? 

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, Funn3r said:

What is a "Tip of the spear trade"? Tried searching but just get stuff about video games.

I have only heard the term in a military fiction context, meaning the recon or whatever teams at the very most forward/dangerous positions.

I am assuming he means trades with the greatest leverage to a pivot, a bit like micro-cap gold explorer shares would be relative to a move (or an expectation of...) in the gold price.

What specific trades that would be here, I don't know...

[DurhamBorn]

From about 40 minutes talks about the lags with inflation,holding very true this cycle,the same as ever.Worth watching for anyone who hasnt seen this before.Inflation has nothing to do with unemployment.

[DurhamBorn]

17 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Is the state pension different from "normal bennies" though in that you only get it if you have a certified record of paying in? I get mine in a couple of weeks and I was surprised how meticulously they had recorded my contributions going back to my late teens.

I don't need the money, in fact I would really rather not because of how much extra will go in tax, but I decided not to defer taking it in case I end up never seeing any of it at all.

You can still save around £4k a year into a SIPP until 75 and get the tax back.

[DoINeedOne]

 

20 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

From about 40 minutes talks about the lags with inflation,holding very true this cycle,the same as ever.Worth watching for anyone who hasnt seen this before.Inflation has nothing to do with unemployment.

I actually enjoyed watching his Free To Choose - The Original 1980 TV Series

Think you can get it on Youtube or Amazon have it for £2 roughly a episode, i bought it so i can rewatch 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Today's episode of fuck about and find out.

 

Japs had a 22% stake and looks like Putin is taking it. 

 

LNG 2 days from there or 30 days from America.

 

Hope it was worth supporting America over Ukraine. I'm sure the Japanese people will think it's worthwhile when they're freezing.