Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Axeman123]

6 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Today's episode of fuck about and find out.

 

Japs had a 22% stake and looks like Putin is taking it. 

 

LNG 2 days from there or 30 days from America.

 

Hope it was worth supporting America over Ukraine. I'm sure the Japanese people will think it's worthwhile when they're freezing.

LNG is a pipedream as a workable substitute for pipelines (pun intended)

There is nothing like the capacity, and won't be for many years. The entire infrastructure is very dependant on sea routes, and a few LNG terminals as critical military targets. Even if the US was able to supply all it's allies' needs, how long would the political will to inflict higher natural gas prices on the US last?

[M S E Refugee]

JP Morgan sounds alarm over oil price prospects https://www.rt.com/business/558256-jp-morgan-alarm-oil-prices/

JP Morgan says Oil may reach $380 a barrel.

 

[Virgil Caine]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

From about 40 minutes talks about the lags with inflation,holding very true this cycle,the same as ever.Worth watching for anyone who hasnt seen this before.Inflation has nothing to do with unemployment.

Well worth watching.

As Friedman says “there are no good choices with inflation”. He also correctly identifies that you can easily have inflation, recession and rising unemployment at the same time. In addition if you loosen monetary policy what you will simply get current inflation plus whatever inflation the stimulus creates. 

[Virgil Caine]

37 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Today's episode of fuck about and find out.

 

Japs had a 22% stake and looks like Putin is taking it. 

 

LNG 2 days from there or 30 days from America.

 

Hope it was worth supporting America over Ukraine. I'm sure the Japanese people will think it's worthwhile when they're freezing.

It is close to Japan and a long way from Moscow.

Wars have been fought over less.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, feed said:

 

Another house price boom and more generational debt, that's exactly what we need.

 

BJ hinted at new mortgage products a few months back, I expect special fixed rates plus other property-props next. And i believe that Japan already has 100 year mortgages, so massive scope for expanding this whole arena imo, because Japan will be the model where these policies have been 'shown to work' (not really).                                                                                                                                      But are there any positives here - maybe intergenerational property wealth transfer by by-passing IHT? ...Eg if extended families buy a large house and live together, @DurhamBorn has mentioned this idea, then I suspect there will be tax efficient ways (trusts, ltd company, offshore?) to own and pass the property between family members.

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, JMD said:

BJ hinted at new mortgage products a few months back, I expect special fixed rates plus other property-props next. And i believe that Japan already has 100 year mortgages, so massive scope for expanding this whole arena imo, because Japan will be the model where these policies have been 'shown to work' (not really).                                                                                                                                                                                         But are there any positives here - maybe intergenerational property wealth transfer by by-passing IHT? ...Eg if extended families buy a large house and live together, @DurhamBorn has mentioned this idea, then I suspect there will be tax efficient ways (trusts, ltd company, offshore?) to own and pass the property between family members.

If it takes two people to make a new person, and it takes more than one working lifetime to buy a house, surely that gaurantees either population shrinkage or a halving of home ownership % with each generation. No-one could ever pay off a mortgage and be an outright owner unless they were an only child finishing off their parents' mortgage, and themselves only had one child to inherit it.

[feed]

27 minutes ago, JMD said:

BJ hinted at new mortgage products a few months back, I expect special fixed rates plus other property-props next. And i believe that Japan already has 100 year mortgages, so massive scope for expanding this whole arena imo, because Japan will be the model where these policies have been 'shown to work' (not really).                                                                                                                                      But are there any positives here - maybe intergenerational property wealth transfer by by-passing IHT? ...Eg if extended families buy a large house and live together, @DurhamBorn has mentioned this idea, then I suspect there will be tax efficient ways (trusts, ltd company, offshore?) to own and pass the property between family members.

I don't have kids and don't expect anything from my family, so i don't have any skin in the game re IHT, but i'm sure they find a way to prevent generational wealth transfer for anyone but the super wealthy. 

And intergenerational living is pretty much the norm elsewhere in the world and was here until a couple of generations ago, 
no doubt it'll come back for most.     

[JMD]

6 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1543123451530977280?t=Hk5YvIvNXUkD7WwxBouxGQ&s=19

 

Saudis joining BRICS?

 

If Putin pulls this off then it really is game over for the West. The domino effect with smaller countries joining is coming.

I don't think it's the end for the West. Imo Ukraine war has been used as the fast-track pivot instrument by the US and where US create the multi-polar (new) world (order). But yes countries will now need to choose their 'team', including the European countries.                                                                                                                                                                                                      All terribly clumsy and horribly destructive of course, but let's be honest - this has always been the US foreign policy style! Both the US and China know the score. US will onshore, and kick the can for another 10 years, and the Dollar will morph from its 'classic status' as the World reserve currency, into a new 'premium product' for exclusive Western-world reserve currency use.                                                                                     

[M S E Refugee]

https://www.gerrardsbullion.com/

Mega sale at Gerrards Bullion £1.50 for a Sovereign

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I have seen it claimed that the Dems cannot avoid running Biden next time, because they need to be able to claim "election interference" as a way to run static on the stolen election and Russia-gate etc.

It is incredible to think about the loss of American prestige and power in the less than two years since Biden took office. I would honestly assess the current position as comparable to just before Pearl Harbour.

Who would want to be the yanks ally now? That replacement wannabe leader of Venezuela that they were recognising as legitimate - dumped for the guy the yanks were trying to force out just because they urgently need oil. The poor fools in Afghan that risked their arse to build the new democracy the yanks promised - thrown to the wolves because...something. Sooner or later Biden will ban LNG exports (IMO) to ease inflation in the US, and where will that leave the EU? The yanks even tried soft regime change on MBS in Saudi, with that Kashoggi stitch-up. Why the hell would he have love for them now?

Kashoggi 'stich-up'?... Didn't all the newspapers report the opposite!?!

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

If it takes two people to make a new person, and it takes more than one working lifetime to buy a house, surely that gaurantees either population shrinkage or a halving of home ownership % with each generation. No-one could ever pay off a mortgage and be an outright owner unless they were an only child finishing off their parents' mortgage, and themselves only had one child to inherit it.

In Lidl yesterday another southern bennie family who must of moved up here.Mother was jet black about 20+ stone,huge,accent broken so likely 20 year ago immigrant,husband was white and had a floating walking stick,never touched the floor,obvious faking it,two sons with them,both obese,one had that walk where body moves rather than the leg,didnt look like there would ever be any work in them.Likely £600+ a week being consumed from other people working on lower wages.Its incredible how the people whos ancestors were here for 1000 to 2000+ years have allowed their leaders to enslave them to pay for incomers.Modern day Vortigern's ,inviting in mercenaries (GDP boosters) only to find they then consume everything and the only place left for you is Wales.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Lightly Toasted said:

The OP's plan amounted to workfare with the empty office as an employment-of-last-resort and there is no reason why Shaz should not be required to participate -- the fact that she's been feather-bedded up to now by having a favoured non-worker classification, doesn't mean that the privilege must (or will) always continue.

The other elephants in the room (setting pensions aside as not being "working age") are family benefits, disability benefits, social care, and housing benefit. All but social care* and that portion of disability that is genuine** could have an element of workfare. Massive and probably politically-impossible task getting there, though.

* clearly social care budgets need to be looked at as well.

** the disability classification started to be used in Thatcher's time, to disguise unemployment -- probably seemed like a cunning thing to do at the time, since "disabled" ex-miners and steel workers (past a certain age) were most unlikely to work again anyway.

 

Yes massive policy shifts can happen surprisingly quickly. For example many commentators were predicting that US was heading toward social breakdown and civil war. However simply by changing a few supreme court judges, and therefore the balance of the supreme court, and voilà - centralised powers and decision making responsibilities are now being returned to the individual states.                                                                                                        Roe vs Wade is currently getting all the attention but other much more significant powers are/will be returned to the states. Some activists are already saying that US national climate agendas will be skupered if the states in future can implement their own local business policies which will effectively override 'green policies'... Reforming US politics by making it more local and less national/tribal could just work. Plus no need for messy, drawn-out arguments about how to reform the 'sacred' US constitution, just let the states decide, simples!!

[King Penda]

41 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

In Lidl yesterday another southern bennie family who must of moved up here.Mother was jet black about 20+ stone,huge,accent broken so likely 20 year ago immigrant,husband was white and had a floating walking stick,never touched the floor,obvious faking it,two sons with them,both obese,one had that walk where body moves rather than the leg,didnt look like there would ever be any work in them.Likely £600+ a week being consumed from other people working on lower wages.Its incredible how the people whos ancestors were here for 1000 to 2000+ years have allowed their leaders to enslave them to pay for incomers.Modern day Vortigern's ,inviting in mercenaries (GDP boosters) only to find they then consume everything and the only place left for you is Wales.

Got at least. 3 black family’s from London within a stones throw of me

[feed]

23 minutes ago, JMD said:

Yes massive policy shifts can happen surprisingly quickly. For example many commentators were predicting that US was heading toward social breakdown and civil war. However simply by changing a few supreme court judges, and therefore the balance of the supreme court, and voilà - centralised powers and decision making responsibilities are now being returned to the individual states.                                                                                                        Roe vs Wade is currently getting all the attention but other much more significant powers are/will be returned to the states. Some activists are already saying that US national climate agendas will be skupered if the states in future can implement their own local business policies which will effectively override 'green policies'... Reforming US politics by making it more local and less national/tribal could just work. Plus no need for messy, drawn-out arguments about how to reform the 'sacred' US constitution, just let the states decide, simples!!

SCOTUS recent ruling against the EPA could be the start of it.  The EPA is federal after all.  

[Bobthebuilder]

8 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Got at least. 3 black family’s from London within a stones throw of me

It was a big local news story on London radio a few years ago, people were offered houses out of the city instead of flats, and new housing claimants were offered up North. The local take on it was people wanted to be close to family and didn't want to move away, but it was the only option available to them.

[King Penda]

7 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

It was a big local news story on London radio a few years ago, people were offered houses out of the city instead of flats, and new housing claimants were offered up North. The local take on it was people wanted to be close to family and didn't want to move away, but it was the only option available to them.

I’ve heard stoke council gets a cash bung per family 

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

In Lidl yesterday another southern bennie family who must of moved up here.Mother was jet black about 20+ stone,huge,accent broken so likely 20 year ago immigrant,husband was white and had a floating walking stick,never touched the floor,obvious faking it,two sons with them,both obese,one had that walk where body moves rather than the leg,didnt look like there would ever be any work in them.Likely £600+ a week being consumed from other people working on lower wages.Its incredible how the people whos ancestors were here for 1000 to 2000+ years have allowed their leaders to enslave them to pay for incomers.Modern day Vortigern's ,inviting in mercenaries (GDP boosters) only to find they then consume everything and the only place left for you is Wales.

I’m a Celt. My ancestors have been here for 4000 years.

We’re still here as the Welsh language song Yma o Hyd goes

 

[Castlevania]

37 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

It was a big local news story on London radio a few years ago, people were offered houses out of the city instead of flats, and new housing claimants were offered up North. The local take on it was people wanted to be close to family and didn't want to move away, but it was the only option available to them.

I think if you turned it down you were deemed to have made yourself deliberately homeless so the Council no longer have a duty to house you.

[Virgil Caine]

31 minutes ago, King Penda said:

I’ve heard stoke council gets a cash bung per family 

They were getting the same down here on the south coast but WFH has made seaside locations attractive to Londoners with jobs looking to relocate so we don’t seem to get the capitals deadbeats now.

[Virgil Caine]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Yes massive policy shifts can happen surprisingly quickly. For example many commentators were predicting that US was heading toward social breakdown and civil war. However simply by changing a few supreme court judges, and therefore the balance of the supreme court, and voilà - centralised powers and decision making responsibilities are now being returned to the individual states.                                                                                                        Roe vs Wade is currently getting all the attention but other much more significant powers are/will be returned to the states. Some activists are already saying that US national climate agendas will be skupered if the states in future can implement their own local business policies which will effectively override 'green policies'... Reforming US politics by making it more local and less national/tribal could just work. Plus no need for messy, drawn-out arguments about how to reform the 'sacred' US constitution, just let the states decide, simples!!

Irony is that “states rights” was an old Democrat mantra before FDR. It was the Republican Party that were the centralisers.

[GoneDark]

57 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Got at least. 3 black family’s from London within a stones throw of me

That's not very welcoming of you to be honest 😕 

[Underwhelmed]

Uncle Dave's latest output, think  at this stage he's just winging it

 

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, JMD said:

BJ hinted at new mortgage products a few months back, I expect special fixed rates plus other property-props next. And i believe that Japan already has 100 year mortgages, so massive scope for expanding this whole arena imo, because Japan will be the model where these policies have been 'shown to work' (not really).                                                                                                                                      But are there any positives here - maybe intergenerational property wealth transfer by by-passing IHT? ...Eg if extended families buy a large house and live together, @DurhamBorn has mentioned this idea, then I suspect there will be tax efficient ways (trusts, ltd company, offshore?) to own and pass the property between family members.

50 years is a bit of a yawn? Even Japan's 100. Sweden 2016:

Quote

 

Swedish lawmakers have adopted a law limiting mortgage loans to 105 years as the Scandinavian nation seeks to come to grips with high property prices and debt levels.

Swedish regulators calculated in 2013 that the average mortgage term was around 140 years.

https://www.thelocal.se/20160324/sweden-limits-mortgage-loans-to-105-years/

 

 

I suspect the MMR has already pushed the length of UK mortgage terms well up, as banks successfully lobbied at the last minute to have a 25 year maximum term removed. The MMR has just meant extend the term until computer says 'yes'. In August the affordability check is being removed though. Double whammy, no need to check they can afford it AND have them expect a longer term.

[Barnsey]

• Staff claim they are being sacked after 153,193 people attended the first four days of play, lowest since 2007
• Over the opening four days tickets - which are going for up to £75 - were also down 11% compared with 2019 
• Workers claimed firings were for drinking in uniform, watching tennis, and going to the toilet 'without asking'
• And they said they were also sent an email saying staff could be 'cut' after 'lower than expected' turnout 

Wimbledon staff: Fury as workers are 'sacked on spot' for breaks https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10975481/Wimbledon-staff-revolt-Fury-workers-sacked-spot-taking-breaks-watch-tennis.html?ito=native_share_article-masthead

2007 

[Democorruptcy]

5 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I have moved my cash ISA to HL Stocks&Shares ISA. 

Now I want to do something about my crap works pension by moving it into a SIPP.

I like HL so far - is it reasonable (from an eggs in one basket perspective) to open the SIPP also at HL, or do people typically choose somewhere else? 

Have you looked into this at all? If your work's pension pot is £30k or more you are forced to pay for financial advice. That's the easy part, persuading them it's the right thing for you to do will be even harder. HL who won't accept a transfer if the financial advice was against it. AJ Bell used to accept transfers even against advice but I don't know about now. Good luck.