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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

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21 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

Excellent point CP.I've seena lot of blaggers in politics because they get caught out in the real world.

Mrs P gets sent on some expensive management lectures.One covered  german General Kurt von hammerstein(real name I shit ye not)He divided his officers into four catergoies thus and looking at my life,he isn't far wrong.People like Rishi couldn't cut it at GS but clearly has a brain between his ears.Clearly works really hard.Clever and industrious.

https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780191826719.001.0001/q-oro-ed4-00012327

Kurt von Hammerstein-Equord 1878–1943
German general 

  1. I divide my officers into four classes as follows: the clever, the industrious, the lazy, and the stupid. Each officer always possesses two of these qualities. Those who are clever and industrious I appoint to the General Staff. Use can under certain circumstances be made of those who are stupid and lazy. The man who is clever and lazy qualifies for the highest leadership posts. He has the requisite and the mental clarity for difficult decisions. But whoever is stupid and industrious must be got rid of, for he is too dangerous.

Eye watering stuff.

'Italy owns 64% of MPS after a 2017 rescue that cost taxpayers 5.4 billion euros - a figure equivalent to nearly eight times the lender's current market value. Rome is now set to pump in another 1.6 billion euros based on the size of its stake.'

Not sure about that. I’m clever and lazy, and yet I’m not in the highest leadership position...

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Missed the news this week they expect the energy price cap to go even higher +51% in the autumn. Debating whether to fix mine but this is looking like a full blown government intervention will be required. +35% is apparently a great deal. It’s going to be carnage come the winter.

Edit: they’ve pulled the offer. 

Edited by Ash4781b
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Joncrete Cungle
Just now, Cattle Prod said:

I've been bullish on miners a while and I'm getting more bullish but the only thing that bothers me is fuel costs. Are investors sniffing out higher AISC? One reason I add a note of caution to the 2018 comparisons Sancho.

Kibuc, the market has to shake off and hurt as many people as it can, which includes us. Until it decides there are more people to be hurt on the short side or sidelines and heads back up. Because most people in any market have to lose for a small number to win big. It's just the way it works, otherwise everyone would be rich. I accept this shaking as part of the process now.

Have any miners hedged their fuel like Go Ahead do?

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Back in 2006 a good friend of mine I herited 15 grand. None of us had ever seen that much legal money on a bank statement. 

He had no idea what to do with it and some guy her worked with convinced him shares were a good idea and gave him a tip. 

Just need the license granted to dig a coal mine in Bangladesh and this little baby would fly. 

5 grand he put in. 33% of everything he'd ever had. The rest went on drugs and cars. So in that respect it was a sound investment. 

For the last 15 years he's lived in benefits and small time drug dealing. Has done alright for himself, his daughter loves him and spends most of the week with him as opposed to her fruitloop mother. And really that's the best any of us can ask for. 

Never bothered working or trying to make mo ey or anything that again tho. Thinks I'm an absolute cunt for working every day and grinding out a few quid in an isa. 

One day I plan in buying a grands worth of this dog and if it does ever go nuts I'll chuck him his 5k back. 

 

Screenshot_20220623_213847_com.android.chrome.jpg

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3 hours ago, kibuc said:

Good luck. I just don't know if I can do it anymore. I'm , so tired right now... I've been making decisions that make sense in a world that doesn't. Nothing seems right. I could have joined the lunacy and be well in the green.

Yesterday it suddenly occured to me that there's a very real possibility that none of the financial things I wanted for me and my kids will happend for me. I will never own a house anywhere where I'd like to live. Neither will my kids. They won't leave the uni debt free. Both me and my wife are highly skilled professionals and we'll have nothing but ourselves because world has been turned into a casino.

My nest egg is disappearing in front of me. 4% one day, 2% on the next, 2.5% the day after that... I don't feel like I've done anything wrong yet the results are disastrous. Once it runs out then that's it. There's no plan B, no hidden stash or surprise inheritance, the dream dies and I probably die with it. The alternative is to park money in cash and see it trickle away with inflation, very likely timed to perfection with  the drunk party resuming its course. I feel trapped.

I've lost all motivation to try. My performance at work in the last few weeks has been laughable. There's no way to change things, no escape.

March 2020 was violent but I remained optimistic. What's going on right now is making me want to cry and eat a gun whenever I start thinking about it. I'm probably working my way to early cancer or heart attack 10 years from now, but there's nothing to do, no way to change course.

Fuck it.

It’s been a strange and at times difficult old 2 years for everyone….some very mixed emotions and outcomes.

You are not wrong in the decisions you have made but knowing that doesn’t help. One thing I have learned is in the short and even medium term…the stock markets job is literally make you feel like a halfwit.

I have told my kids (and reading your note…now telling myself) to look after their health, their education and their wellbeing and that of their own families). That’s the priority…the skin you are in. 

Everything else falls into place and finances can be fixed….but without your health everything an uphill struggle. Unfortunately for most people it takes losing their health (or a family member to lose their health) to bring everything into perspective

Try take a few days off, climb a hill, ride a Harley, go watch some shite at the cinema, enjoy an afternoon with the kids….just something so you don’t look at a phone screen or pc for a whole day or two….hopefully it might help.

Good luck matey….

 

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HL Do not give finacial advice yet....But if they did well Carlsberg would be in the rear view miror.......

 

Fuckoff AArron, girls name anyway...

 

Introduction to risk – what you need to know

Dear Mr Polymetal ooops sorry Mr Cawn....You get my drift.

Based on your current HL account, your portfolio could be a little risky.

We wanted to let you know taking more risk doesn’t always pay off, and offer some tips to help manage risk on your terms.
 
 
 
LEARN MORE ABOUT RISK      
 
Defining risk

Your HL portfolio has a high proportion of its investments in areas that have, in the past, been highly volatile – where the price swings, up and down, have been higher than average.

Remember past performance isn’t a guide to the future. If you hold investments elsewhere, your overall risk level will be different to your HL portfolio alone. 

This email series is designed to help investors better manage their risk, but it isn’t personal advice. If you’re not sure what to do, ask for financial advice. All investments go up and down in value, so you could get back less than you put in.

If you have any questions, you can email us or send us a secure message from your online account and we’ll get back to you as soon as possible.
 
 
 
 
 
AARON GIBBS
Investment Writer
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M S E Refugee
3 hours ago, kibuc said:

Good luck. I just don't know if I can do it anymore. I'm , so tired right now... I've been making decisions that make sense in a world that doesn't. Nothing seems right. I could have joined the lunacy and be well in the green.

Yesterday it suddenly occured to me that there's a very real possibility that none of the financial things I wanted for me and my kids will happend for me. I will never own a house anywhere where I'd like to live. Neither will my kids. They won't leave the uni debt free. Both me and my wife are highly skilled professionals and we'll have nothing but ourselves because world has been turned into a casino.

My nest egg is disappearing in front of me. 4% one day, 2% on the next, 2.5% the day after that... I don't feel like I've done anything wrong yet the results are disastrous. Once it runs out then that's it. There's no plan B, no hidden stash or surprise inheritance, the dream dies and I probably die with it. The alternative is to park money in cash and see it trickle away with inflation, very likely timed to perfection with  the drunk party resuming its course. I feel trapped.

I've lost all motivation to try. My performance at work in the last few weeks has been laughable. There's no way to change things, no escape.

March 2020 was violent but I remained optimistic. What's going on right now is making me want to cry and eat a gun whenever I start thinking about it. I'm probably working my way to early cancer or heart attack 10 years from now, but there's nothing to do, no way to change course.

Fuck it.

There are going to plenty of people lose everything in the next few years but you have a lot better chance of survival than the average Joe.

I am personally very, very bullish on Precious Metals.

Keep your chin up, it's only money!

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3 hours ago, kibuc said:

Good luck. I just don't know if I can do it anymore. I'm , so tired right now... I've been making decisions that make sense in a world that doesn't. Nothing seems right. I could have joined the lunacy and be well in the green.

Yesterday it suddenly occured to me that there's a very real possibility that none of the financial things I wanted for me and my kids will happend for me. I will never own a house anywhere where I'd like to live. Neither will my kids. They won't leave the uni debt free. Both me and my wife are highly skilled professionals and we'll have nothing but ourselves because world has been turned into a casino.

My nest egg is disappearing in front of me. 4% one day, 2% on the next, 2.5% the day after that... I don't feel like I've done anything wrong yet the results are disastrous. Once it runs out then that's it. There's no plan B, no hidden stash or surprise inheritance, the dream dies and I probably die with it. The alternative is to park money in cash and see it trickle away with inflation, very likely timed to perfection with  the drunk party resuming its course. I feel trapped.

I've lost all motivation to try. My performance at work in the last few weeks has been laughable. There's no way to change things, no escape.

March 2020 was violent but I remained optimistic. What's going on right now is making me want to cry and eat a gun whenever I start thinking about it. I'm probably working my way to early cancer or heart attack 10 years from now, but there's nothing to do, no way to change course.

Fuck it.

Chin up fella, you have a family and your health, nowt else matters in this world, nothing.
I'm six figures underwater in the nasty Russian miner we all know and love to hate. The missus left me a while back.
Got a new bird, have a beer most nights, things will sort themselves out. Like the guys say on here; metals will run and when they do they really run.
Get that shit thought out of your mind, never take your own life, just take a trip up to the cancer wards at your local hospital, see the suffering, then go home and be thankful of you family their health and your health.
Take care kidda.

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1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Not sure about that. I’m clever and lazy, and yet I’m not in the highest leadership position...

Also Gernany's military might during that period appeared to be great,  until it wasn't. 

A bit like their current energy policies 

 

th.jpg

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Joncrete Cungle
9 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Feeling you K.

My wife's on board with all we've done but she said to me today she feels stuck. Never sees us owning a place. Doesn't want to stick around in an area where we've currently zero chance of owning a decent place due to the bubble and doesn't want our kids to suffer the same. Hates the treadmill to nowhere. Moving anywhere remotely cheaper would be massive upheaval but she's thrown it in the ring.

The post on here earlier slapped me, though.

When people who were previously steadfast start wobbling it's like the last part of child labour where the woman starts claiming she can't carry on and wants all the drugs and interventions. The end/start we await is coming.

For anyone born after 1945 we're getting a small taste of what it's like to live in a truly troubled world. Elders may compare it to the late 1970s, but that was part of a short term fix that gave us the following 20 years.

There is no fix for what ails us here. It must simply be ridden, IMO.

Imagine living in an England covered in Luftwaffe with a threat of invasion for a couple of years. Truly shit stuff. It created toughness for those who stuck it out even when the incendiaries were raining and it must have seemed like a living hell on earth.

We're positioned for the inevitable.

Get some rest. Focus on the sunshine and your kids and missus.

In a short time the world could look very different.

Peace.

Move somewhere cheaper, it was a huge weight off our shoulders when we did. Staying in the South East the majority of our pay rises would have been eaten up by rent increases on a small, shitty 2 bed flat in a ropey area. We wouldn't have been able to buy at all or rent anything bigger in a better location for a growing family.

If you had told me 7 or 8 years ago I would be typing this sat in our 4 bed 60's semi detached house, with drive, garage, shed and a decent size garden for the brats I couldn't have believed it in a month of Sundays. Would have found it incredulous to be able to overpay on the mortgage etc.

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11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Notice how quietly our telcos are starting to deliver while everything is shaky.TEF doing very nicely indeed now slowly creeping higher.BT keeps catching a bid,VOD is seeing more and more cunts (Blackrock) appear on the shareholder register.Even Turkcell has crept up a bit iv 3 ladders in out of 5 so up or down suits me.

Government might be a risk trying to force them to hold down prices,but a £30 phone bill increasing at 10% means nothing when an energy bill of £200 a month is going up at 50%.

Something yielding 6% that can deliver 4%pa growth could end up being the best sector of them all to protect capital.Only mistake was capital could of grown much more in the other inflation areas then be moved,but looking good at the moment.

Even T and VZ across the pond are slowly sneaking up. 

The decision to sell up 70% of Portfolio a few weeks ago (Sold all of Oil related stocks - BP, SHELL, ENB, SLB, REP, etc), and just keep the TELCOs and Baccy and a few other bits and bobs and build cash seems fairly fortuitous so far. 

I’m getting used to being up on red days in the market. If it was not for RR and POLY I’d be even happier). 

Time will come to use that saved cash and move it back to the big miners and oil and eventually potash ??  Not sure when though?  
Happy to drip feed some of it into Gold and silver each month for now and wait. Potash (MOS) down 10% today - it’s certainly volatile. 

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3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

.Get a barbell,im glad i got one again thanks to the lads on here.Its a great way to empty your mind with the added bonus of being able to rip limbs of any clowns who go near your family.

 

 

Back in the weights too and noticing the difference day to day

Can carry £100 of groceries in one arm now, needed two arms a little while ago

A few years ago I would need a trolley

Definitely stronger!

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42 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Move somewhere cheaper, it was a huge weight off our shoulders when we did. Staying in the South East the majority of our pay rises would have been eaten up by rent increases on a small, shitty 2 bed flat in a ropey area. We wouldn't have been able to buy at all or rent anything bigger in a better location for a growing family.

If you had told me 7 or 8 years ago I would be typing this sat in our 4 bed 60's semi detached house, with drive, garage, shed and a decent size garden for the brats I couldn't have believed it in a month of Sundays. Would have found it incredulous to be able to overpay on the mortgage etc.

If you don't mind, what area did you move to?

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9 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Back in the weights too and noticing the difference day to day

Can carry £100 of groceries in one arm now, needed two arms a little while ago

A few years ago I would need a trolley

Definitely stronger!

Or inflation. 

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1 hour ago, Calcutta said:

Back in 2006 a good friend of mine I herited 15 grand. None of us had ever seen that much legal money on a bank statement. 

He had no idea what to do with it and some guy her worked with convinced him shares were a good idea and gave him a tip. 

Just need the license granted to dig a coal mine in Bangladesh and this little baby would fly. 

5 grand he put in. 33% of everything he'd ever had. The rest went on drugs and cars. So in that respect it was a sound investment. 

For the last 15 years he's lived in benefits and small time drug dealing. Has done alright for himself, his daughter loves him and spends most of the week with him as opposed to her fruitloop mother. And really that's the best any of us can ask for. 

Never bothered working or trying to make mo ey or anything that again tho. Thinks I'm an absolute cunt for working every day and grinding out a few quid in an isa. 

One day I plan in buying a grands worth of this dog and if it does ever go nuts I'll chuck him his 5k back. 

 

Screenshot_20220623_213847_com.android.chrome.jpg

Is that a crypto

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On 22/06/2022 at 22:05, baffledbyzirp said:

THE IOPC child abuse inquiry into Police failings in Rotherham was finally released after eight years. The cost of the report was upward of £6,000,000.00 and it is estimated that over 1,400 children were abused. The most severe punishment for one negligent and indifferent police officer was a final written warning. Blame it seems was institutional rather than individual. Many of the guilty had already retired on full pensions thereby escaping justice and exposure.

Can you even imagine the level of compensation due to the victims of these heinous crimes? Add to that the cost of prosecuting and incarcerating the sick SOBs who perpetrated the crimes. Let's not forget the pensions and wages of officers who knowingly turned a blind eye to children being raped. Finally there are costs relating to wrongful dismissal for the few decent individuals who tried to blow the whistle. 

Don't forget that this pattern of predatory behaviour has been replicated in Rochdale, Keighley, Oldham, Leicester, Bradford, Dewsbury and numerous other towns and cities. 

If our Police Forces are unable or unwilling to protect children why do we shell out ever more money for 'bobbies on the beat?' The failings in Rotherham are emblematic of the Public Sector more broadly. In this instance less would be more.

 

Yes, Institutional failure for sure and something we do comment upon regularly here, but I guess almost a feature of big cycle turns I think. However the striking thing for me about those crimes, occuring as they did over many years and happening in many different towns, was that the communities and families of the perpetrators themselves did not speak out. Instead it appears that the Muslim communities within those various towns all closed ranks - and very curiously (not really) this shocking behaviour is never mentioned. I wasn't expecting the wives of the peadophiles to have turned them in, but what I am saying is that at the very least, some of the cousins or uncles of the child abusers should have come forward.                                                                                                                             Btw, none of this is said to imply or make cheap racial slurs. Instead for me it's a scary examplar of the far deeper problem of failed so-called multiculturalism, of communities leading separate lives, and which will surely only worsen given our predicted economic future and coming fierce competition for limited resources.

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16 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

I'll have  a think about it.

I'm always amazed that someone will give someting away from free and think...don't want someone like that working for my company xD

I agree.  The question then is, what's the ex-GS bankers ultimate goal ?

Maybe to receive a life peerage (great for the CV)... Lord Spiv!!

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Eventually Right
6 hours ago, kibuc said:

Good luck. I just don't know if I can do it anymore. I'm , so tired right now... I've been making decisions that make sense in a world that doesn't. Nothing seems right. I could have joined the lunacy and be well in the green.

Yesterday it suddenly occured to me that there's a very real possibility that none of the financial things I wanted for me and my kids will happend for me. I will never own a house anywhere where I'd like to live. Neither will my kids. They won't leave the uni debt free. Both me and my wife are highly skilled professionals and we'll have nothing but ourselves because world has been turned into a casino.

My nest egg is disappearing in front of me. 4% one day, 2% on the next, 2.5% the day after that... I don't feel like I've done anything wrong yet the results are disastrous. Once it runs out then that's it. There's no plan B, no hidden stash or surprise inheritance, the dream dies and I probably die with it. The alternative is to park money in cash and see it trickle away with inflation, very likely timed to perfection with  the drunk party resuming its course. I feel trapped.

I've lost all motivation to try. My performance at work in the last few weeks has been laughable. There's no way to change things, no escape.

March 2020 was violent but I remained optimistic. What's going on right now is making me want to cry and eat a gun whenever I start thinking about it. I'm probably working my way to early cancer or heart attack 10 years from now, but there's nothing to do, no way to change course.

Fuck it.

kibuc,

I’m probably in a similar position to you in terms of portfolio being (over) exposed to PMs. I’d echo a lot of what has already been posted in terms of family and health being more important, but also understand that maybe it’s difficult to see/think clearly when you’re watching your nest egg go down by large amounts every day.

As has been said, junior miners can triple in weeks, so don’t give up hope.

If I can make a suggestion-look through your portfolio tomorrow. If there’s any stuff in there that you look at and think “why the fuck am I holding that?!”, and the answer is “I can’t bear to crystallise the loss, even though I actually now think the stock is dog shit”, then sell it-it feels good to get the poison out.

I’d guess that suggesting diversifying would be pointless, because maybe the only thing worse than watching your portfolio shrink each day, is the thought of selling everything, only to mark the bottom and see the miners triple in the next year, and juniors 6-7x. So buy a streamer/royalty co-something safe. Get your portfolio, however beaten up it is, into a composition that lets you sleep slightly better.

Then do two more things-go lift weights/exercise for long enough and hard enough that you don’t give a fuck about your portfolio. Even if the effect only lasts 15 minutes, it will do you the world of good. Keep doing this several times a week.

secondly, don’t look at your portfolio or the price of gold/silver for at least a couple of weeks. If silver dropped, would you sell up? I suspect you’d be thinking, what if this is the bottom, and we’re at $30 in 6 months? If you’re committed, and you’re not going to sell up, then by living and dying with every daily increase/decrease, all you’re doing is fucking yourself up mentally.

Feel free to dm me if it would help.

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