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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

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6 hours ago, kibuc said:

Good luck. I just don't know if I can do it anymore. I'm , so tired right now... I've been making decisions that make sense in a world that doesn't. Nothing seems right. I could have joined the lunacy and be well in the green.

Yesterday it suddenly occured to me that there's a very real possibility that none of the financial things I wanted for me and my kids will happend for me. I will never own a house anywhere where I'd like to live. Neither will my kids. They won't leave the uni debt free. Both me and my wife are highly skilled professionals and we'll have nothing but ourselves because world has been turned into a casino.

My nest egg is disappearing in front of me. 4% one day, 2% on the next, 2.5% the day after that... I don't feel like I've done anything wrong yet the results are disastrous. Once it runs out then that's it. There's no plan B, no hidden stash or surprise inheritance, the dream dies and I probably die with it. The alternative is to park money in cash and see it trickle away with inflation, very likely timed to perfection with  the drunk party resuming its course. I feel trapped.

I've lost all motivation to try. My performance at work in the last few weeks has been laughable. There's no way to change things, no escape.

March 2020 was violent but I remained optimistic. What's going on right now is making me want to cry and eat a gun whenever I start thinking about it. I'm probably working my way to early cancer or heart attack 10 years from now, but there's nothing to do, no way to change course.

Fuck it.

Hey @kibuc, like you I am almost entirely invested in the PM miners. I have gambled big and after March 2020 i had made almost £120k paper profit when silver went near $30. Profits are now £20k (losing almost 100k in paper) and i have halved my wifes stake. My wife doesnt know as I will just give any money i have to ensure she doesnt lose it (it jointly all our money anyway). Good thing she is not bothered about it presently.

 

Basically i also feel sick at times and dont get why silver isnt well over $30 already with so much worlwide inflation. Yes I feel horrid at times thinking i could have significantly reduced out mortgage or invested in this or that, however i have decided to continue life and pretend i have already lost all of what i have invested. Since then i have been able to focus and continue my life and enjoy quality time with my boy without distraction.

 

In historic terms i truly believe $30 silver will be chicken feed when we look back but only a few will have profited from it as the market would have shaken most out well before then (to quote a famous man from Durham). Some of the miners will make huge moves up but that might take another year or 3. Hopefully you, me and others here will be part of that occasion. 

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6 hours ago, kibuc said:

Good luck. I just don't know if I can do it anymore. I'm , so tired right now... I've been making decisions that make sense in a world that doesn't. Nothing seems right. I could have joined the lunacy and be well in the green.

...

Fuck it.

I've had a similar feeling creep up on me this week. Upon introspection, I think that the cause for me is that the reality of increasing prices everywhere feels suffocating. I can well imagine that in previous episodes of high inflation, average people became accepting of any prescribed medicine that might bring it back under control.

It's infuriating that the powers that be have created this situation. It feels like they have tipped the scales against the average person. Like they have enlarged the holes in our pockets so that everything now falls through.

Will those that leveraged themselves and agreed to hand record amounts of their future labour for some shelter, be bailed out by a debt jubilee or have their debt inflated away? Or will they have to pay the piper as interest rates inexorably rise?

I don't know. It seems to all be in the hands of some WEF alumni and the like.

It's just seems so random as to who gets wiped out. Like a plague. Or who gets hit by enemy fire going over the top of the trenches.

The mental image I'm stuck with is the final challenge from I'm a celebrity. Having inched your way up the slippery surface, they train the water, the ball cannon, the fans on you until you accept reality, let go and get washed away.

 

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16 hours ago, spygirl said:

From ~1985, the City has had a wide funnel and greased exit tube.

It takes in lot of high academic achievers/bullshitters, gives them jobs, then, if they dont make money/have use, lets them go.

3 years (max), 2 years (min), depending when he joined and left, is a try and fail city career.

Analyst is a sit at a desk and make me money,. Or else. Position.

 

Back in the day, failed city types were jokingly termed 'FILTH' by their colleagues - Failed In London (now) Trying Hong-Kong.

Edited by JMD
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14 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Then Adam reminding us all what the next few decades hold in store for us in the West :ph34r:

 

Remind me again, which group were given the vaccines? It was those outside the circle right? ...Hmm, just thinking out loud, I'm sure there's nothing to worry about!!

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10 hours ago, BWW said:

dutch tv report about this was asking whether qatar gas is any more ethical than russia gicen the 000's of immigrant labour deaths. also reporting on lpg terminal investment which needs min 10 year contracts to repay investment.

They'll next be asking themselves whether they should be saving energy by resorting to warming-up their evening meal in a 'Dutch oven'!!

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9 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

You might set a low bar for a new political party but the costs involved to make one a contender are very high bar.

Yes, but Arron Banks always appears up for anti-establishment mischief.

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11 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Surely that will be the next stage of the Nigel Farage project. He is building a coalition of dispossesed voters around issues like the ECHR, inflation, dingy drivers etc. Farage is also not condemning the strikes, making him a threat to Labour too.

BJs "wedge week" actually makes more sense as an attempt to head this off than it does as an attack on Labour. Credit where it is due though, party-gate is well and truly in the rear-view mirror.

Farage has served his purpose for the likes of the Murdochs.

He's politically finished and now preaching to a tiny number of people on some low rent news channel.

Anyone who tries to get in the way of mass immigration and super charged renteerism over the next decade will be persona non grata. The Tories bumping net immigration to 1 million a year is an indication of where post EU Britain is heading. 

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12 hours ago, kibuc said:

Good luck. I just don't know if I can do it anymore. I'm , so tired right now... I've been making decisions that make sense in a world that doesn't. Nothing seems right. I could have joined the lunacy and be well in the green.

Yesterday it suddenly occured to me that there's a very real possibility that none of the financial things I wanted for me and my kids will happend for me. I will never own a house anywhere where I'd like to live. Neither will my kids. They won't leave the uni debt free. Both me and my wife are highly skilled professionals and we'll have nothing but ourselves because world has been turned into a casino.

My nest egg is disappearing in front of me. 4% one day, 2% on the next, 2.5% the day after that... I don't feel like I've done anything wrong yet the results are disastrous. Once it runs out then that's it. There's no plan B, no hidden stash or surprise inheritance, the dream dies and I probably die with it. The alternative is to park money in cash and see it trickle away with inflation, very likely timed to perfection with  the drunk party resuming its course. I feel trapped.

I've lost all motivation to try. My performance at work in the last few weeks has been laughable. There's no way to change things, no escape.

March 2020 was violent but I remained optimistic. What's going on right now is making me want to cry and eat a gun whenever I start thinking about it. I'm probably working my way to early cancer or heart attack 10 years from now, but there's nothing to do, no way to change course.

Fuck it.

 

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9 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I've been bullish on miners a while and I'm getting more bullish but the only thing that bothers me is fuel costs. Are investors sniffing out higher AISC? One reason I add a note of caution to the 2018 comparisons Sancho

Fuel costs And one other thing I was thinking about the other day with high inflation and energy costs countries rioting against their governments and going to shit As people get more frustrated 

 

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7 hours ago, JMD said:

...However the striking thing for me about those crimes, occuring as they did over many years and happening in many different towns, was that the communities and families of the perpetrators themselves did not speak out. Instead it appears that the Muslim communities within those various towns all closed ranks...

A bit like the old English concept of an outlaw being outside the protection of the law, (some, traditionalist) Muslims view females outside the accepted role and boundaries as fair game. There will be women etc in those communities who view these girls as to blame for having lead good family men into trouble, and the courts as having rendered a perverse injustice to the men.

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19 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Sorry to hear a load of you are down a fair bit on miners but really if you are honest with yourselves there's no excuse for this other than greed as we've all had the opportunity to top slice at minimum incredible returns in oil and potash companies the last few years thanks to this thread :Old:

I do also find it hard to have too much sympathy when most on this thread have laughed and ridiculed the mostly younger generation for investing so much of their meagre wealth in Crypto currencies to try and get ahead with the deck of life stacked even harder for them than most on here who have at least managed to be able to have larger amounts of savings to put into mining shares. At the end of the day crypto investors were doing similar things and acting with similar emotions as many of you who seemingly went balls deep in miners and didn't diversify your portfolios. This macro thread was never for YOLO investing which a lot of you seem to have resorted to whilst kidding yourself you were above that O.o

Sorry to sound harsh but 'suck it up buttercup' to quote another modern meme.

Your choices going forward are simple - you either sell up now and crystalise the losses or stay in the markets for the ride.

Either way, get away from the computer or mobile and as much fresh air, exercise and time with your friends and family instead of stressing yourself out further incessantly watching things rising or falling :Geek:

Going forward, you will have learned an important lesson about gambling which is what you have been doing not macro investing but remember you are probably still ahead of 80% of UK people and 90+% of the global population wealth wise :Beer:

 

If I'm ever feeling down thinking of jumping but need a bit of counselling. I hope to fook you're busy elsewhere.

 

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12 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

My big losses have been caused by the Government's insane response to Putin's military operation.

Polymetal and the iShares Eastern Europe ETF both investments offered excellent value but at a stroke of a Pen they were decimated.

You have just got to take these things on the chin.

I take you point but I managed to get out of Gazprom and Poly with 90% of what I'd invested as I could see as soon as Russia went into Ukraine that was not normal and I'd rather be safe than sorry yet loads on here held on due to not wanting to miss the 'mad gainz' and not accepting the new reality. We even had people complaining they couldn't buy Russian related shares as Kiev was under siege which had at that point dropped 90% or more which to any rational person is gambling. You can blame the "Government's insane response" for your own losses if you want but deep down surely you know you had as much time as anyone else to get out of those shares without such a hefty loss?

Investing to me seems no different to life in general in that you have to be alert and ready to react to whatever comes your way, you alone are responsible for the decisions you make and the emotions you let rule your actions as anything external is outside your control ;)

Edited by geordie_lurch
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7 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I honestly never thought they would enact such insane policies.

I'm not doubting that and I'm not claiming I forsaw Russia shelling Ukraine but when reality changes you have to reassess your risk tolerances and act accordingly. Ideally before others react otherwise there's noone on the other side to buy :Beer:

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21 hours ago, Pip321 said:

Maybe I didn’t explain. The last 20 years was a good way to acquire wealth using leverage on BTL…..Debt repayment (or as a minimum setting aside cash to offset debt)…leaving unencumbered properties paid for by high rents on low mortgage rates.

I mean it was a good opportunity to do so. I do not mean that the majority or even a significant minority have taken that opportunity.

I developed and sold the majority of mine but a couple I still hold have tenants paying rent at 2006 prices because debt payments fell from £350 pcm to £40 pcm.  All that extra money was saved not spent…I know only maybe one or two other LLs who have been frugal and treated the debt with the respect they should have.

I understand your point re disadvantaged areas….I do know someone who bought in Stoke and owns 8 crappy houses worth less than he paid. However he is one of those frugal examples and they were yielding 20% when he bought. Not my model but at least he had the sense to pay off his debts (like the engineering machine). So he owns the depreciating asset but it’s now paid for by someone else  

I am not advocating. Just saying the was an opportunity, even those who took it wasted in on a lifestyle….and that opportunity has gone. 

I understand your point.

Another area where the BoE fucked up.

It OK slashing rates for QE for OO. But allowing fucktards like Fergus to be bailed out is insane.

The BoE should have forced all IO to repayment when it started down the ZIRP/QE road.

Its reaping that fuckup now.

One thing Im not 100% sure about if the funding behind post 2002 IO BTL.

Was it drawn down from BoE?

Is it bonds?

Either way, they are going to go bad rapidly.

 

 

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As Rio dropped to 5180 I bought in I bloody said it would drop further😆😆….200 beautiful shares  

So now at 4900 do I put another ladder in….knowing this is massive commodity producing, 11% yielding, £30 billion profit making business and will come good. And those investing in low yielding shite are wrong.  

Or as @SpectrumFX beautifully and hilariously put it a page or two ago…” I just kept throwing money at it like some great big fucking mong.”

I would suggest this is a wonderful game…but of course timing is a real bugger.

My objective is just to beat cash so I may just put in a cheeky half ladder. I like Rio as a 20 year hold….which after 8/9 years May pay for itself in divi’s.

If I buy today…expect the predictable further falls 🤦🏻‍♂️😆 

Edited by Pip321
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9 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

Back in the weights too and noticing the difference day to day

Can carry £100 of groceries in one arm now, needed two arms a little while ago

A few years ago I would need a trolley

Definitely stronger!

That could just be the inflation in grocery prices though...

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AlfredTheLittle
14 hours ago, kibuc said:

Good luck. I just don't know if I can do it anymore. I'm , so tired right now... I've been making decisions that make sense in a world that doesn't. Nothing seems right. I could have joined the lunacy and be well in the green.

Yesterday it suddenly occured to me that there's a very real possibility that none of the financial things I wanted for me and my kids will happend for me. I will never own a house anywhere where I'd like to live. Neither will my kids. They won't leave the uni debt free. Both me and my wife are highly skilled professionals and we'll have nothing but ourselves because world has been turned into a casino.

My nest egg is disappearing in front of me. 4% one day, 2% on the next, 2.5% the day after that... I don't feel like I've done anything wrong yet the results are disastrous. Once it runs out then that's it. There's no plan B, no hidden stash or surprise inheritance, the dream dies and I probably die with it. The alternative is to park money in cash and see it trickle away with inflation, very likely timed to perfection with  the drunk party resuming its course. I feel trapped.

I've lost all motivation to try. My performance at work in the last few weeks has been laughable. There's no way to change things, no escape.

March 2020 was violent but I remained optimistic. What's going on right now is making me want to cry and eat a gun whenever I start thinking about it. I'm probably working my way to early cancer or heart attack 10 years from now, but there's nothing to do, no way to change course.

Fuck it.

Things could always be worse

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10947483/Anguish-young-man-sex-organs-removed-NHS-regretted-day-SUES-NHS.html

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25 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Not the point you were making I know…but what the fuck. This guy is suing the NHS. Because he didn’t realise the emotional distress having his meat and 2 veg removed would have. Do you have to tell people to lift the lid before pissing into a toilet. 2 years consultation.! 

1940’s and the NHS is introduced. Imagine how that felt as a truly working class family learn that their kids won’t die from pneumonia any more, or a broken leg no longer means being lame, a tooth extraction can be carried out without using a neighbours hammer, maybe treat serious virus etc…..and whilst nothing it’s free, it’s for everyone. What a wonderful wonderful thing to give everyday families. 

80 years on we have gender reassignment on the NHS….

I am all for a truly liberal world, I am happy to call someone a ‘she’ a ‘he’ and happy for all sorts of sexuality to be acknowledged. I even sometimes stop myself from laughing at fatties in electric scooters in Asda.  But it is not for the NHS to pay for stomach stapling, gender reassignments etc.

This should be a test case for the NHS to absolutely never ever do this operation for anyone again. 

How many cancer patients are on the waiting list because of these operations and when he gets his free money compensation how many cancer patients will miss treatment. Maybe a few kids will die of cancer so this claimant is sorted….oh well, for the greater good.😞

Might buy some more Rio shares later, and ask the NHS to compensate me if the drop. 
 

Ps….just read the comments, realised I have been ‘double woked’. DM uses this to push me further right.😉

Great story though, definitely shouldn’t be on the NHS.…😂 

Edited by Pip321
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