Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[JMD]

17 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Weird just had a few beers with the mrs on the first night in ages when one of the kids isn't up.we had a convo ref roe vs wade and I made the same point. 

MSM is fixed on a repercussion of the decision. The much broader theme is the transfer of federal power back to the states.

 

Yes seems such an elegant and simple solution - if you don't like the rules and laws, just move to another state.                                                                                                                                                                                                          I previously thought the US might merely tie itself in knots for many years while attempting to sort out a new constitutional settlement in order to fix its internal frictions and make everyone 'happy', some thought this would be an impossible task and ultimately would end in civil war...  that's still a risk of course, but in the mean time I really hope the US can show the EU what true 'subsidiarity' looks like!!   

[ONC]

Hi @DurhamBorn

That is funny. I am not normally into prepping. But after reading this thread at the weekend, i too ordered a wind-up lantern!!  At least some preparation if we do have blackouts this winter.  

 

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Rechargeable-Flashlight-Portable-Electronic-Emergencies/dp/B09GVNX1L8/ref=sr_1_2_sspa?keywords=wind%2Bup%2Blantern&qid=1656948148&sr=8-2-spons&spLa=ZW5jcnlwdGVkUXVhbGlmaWVyPUFJTEc3S1BCNkVZOTEmZW5jcnlwdGVkSWQ9QTAwNDA1NTdBNjgxT1kzS0Y5WDYmZW5jcnlwdGVkQWRJZD1BMDk0NzQ5NjJHNFRaSlFPRkxXS0cmd2lkZ2V0TmFtZT1zcF9hdGYmYWN0aW9uPWNsaWNrUmVkaXJlY3QmZG9Ob3RMb2dDbGljaz10cnVl&th=1

[Bobthebuilder]

8 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Super clip that, cheers. People of all sorts have so much nowadays, comparatively. Who of our current bennies would now choose to work and live in a house with walls green with mould (and no sky sports), knowing they could get more on the scratch? Why the fuck am I paying for this.

I was taken by the way she said "assistance" a few times before she said "dole", looked like she was almost embarrassed to use the word.

I can remember people like that.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

What happened to the existing tropical fish? Did they end up being ‘released’ back into the wild down the loo?

I waited until they died off,gave last two back to the shop reckon those heaters will use up a lot of leccy,not anymore.

[snaga]

1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yes, me too, a different quality of person altogether. That lady and her husband had been through the war just 15 years earlier, it shows in her independence and toughness. Hard times create strong people.

We're obviously at the 4th stage now, I for one am looking forward to the hard times coming washing away all the nonsense, and having my son come of age in stage 1, hopefully as a strong man.

I like your optimism, but I think we are only on the verge of entering stage 4, and it's likely to last more than 25 years. I hope I'm wrong.

[JoeDavola]

31 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Super clip that, cheers. People of all sorts have so much nowadays, comparatively. Who of our current bennies would now choose to work and live in a house with walls green with mould (and no sky sports), knowing they could get more on the scratch? Why the fuck am I paying for this.

I went out to the shop at about 2 this afternoon, and I passed what was obivously a fat sharon from the housing estate with her 4 kids in tow, wandering about shopping without a care in the world.

Two minutes later I passed  a Muslim husband and wife, again with a family of four children.

I don't know anyone, even the high earners at the top of any org I've ever worked, who has had as many as 4 children. Most people struggle to afford two. Several of my peers who are 'career' folk and higher rate tax payers just haven't had kids at all.

This can't be sustainable. As in not even for the next 20 year or , it has to collapse before then.

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

I went out to the shop at about 2 this afternoon, and I passed what was obivously a fat sharon from the housing estate with her 4 kids in tow, wandering about shopping without a care in the world.

Two minutes later I passed  a Muslim husband and wife, again with a family of four children.

I don't know anyone, even at the top of any org I've ever worked, who has had as many as 4 children. Most people struggle to afford two. Several of my peers who are 'career' folk and higher rate tax payers just haven't had kids at all.

This can't be sustainable. As in not even for the next 20 year or , it has to collapse before then.

Idiocracy, where only the unemployed idiots breed in numbers.

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Idiocracy, where only the unemployed idiots breed in numbers.

One over the road is up the duff again,no 6,they will never fit in her new BMW.Retired copper step dad getting the £600 a month bennies for the rent + his 10% pension increase.

[JMD]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Fantastic to see others seeing what we have been seeing.The pensions and bennies up 10%  while wages go up 5% etc is the huge thing for me.Its massive.Il give the simple macro on it if you roadmap it.100% certain systemic collapse.

Iv seen that happening as a tiny outlier and sterling likely to increase,BUT my models didnt input freeloaders getting double the increases of workers.Nobody could expect that lunacy.Now,if i input it collapse becomes CERTAIN.If carried on of course.

The question is really now how it plays out.If they go ahead sterling is toast in the shorter term,but might not be in the longer term.I think the thread needs to really consider asset allocation here with laser focus.One good thing is the market hurts the most it can,so a huge part of the pain in the UK will be on house prices,wipe out of leveraged BTL etc.The state will have to make huge reforms as well.

 

DB, when you mention the thread should maintain its laser focus on asset allocation, would that still mean selecting and buying mainly from the 'de-complex' sectors, including assets and companies? Especially if low debt, good fcf, price makers (not price takers)?      

[leonardratso]

35 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

One over the road is up the duff again,no 6,they will never fit in her new BMW.Retired copper step dad getting the £600 a month bennies for the rent + his 10% pension increase.

where were you between 15 jan 2022 and 1st feb 2022?

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

I went out to the shop at about 2 this afternoon, and I passed what was obivously a fat sharon from the housing estate with her 4 kids in tow, wandering about shopping without a care in the world.

Two minutes later I passed  a Muslim husband and wife, again with a family of four children.

I don't know anyone, even the high earners at the top of any org I've ever worked, who has had as many as 4 children. Most people struggle to afford two. Several of my peers who are 'career' folk and higher rate tax payers just haven't had kids at all.

This can't be sustainable. As in not even for the next 20 year or , it has to collapse before then.

I’ve had 5 and if you count step kids I’ve brought up that’s 8.

[Xtal]

Colin Brazier on GB News earlier saying the government is taking too much from working people.

 

[Plan-b]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The question is really now how it plays out.If they go ahead sterling is toast in the shorter term,but might not be in the longer term.I think the thread needs to really consider asset allocation here with laser focus.One good thing is the market hurts the most it can,so a huge part of the pain in the UK will be on house prices,wipe out of leveraged BTL etc.The state will have to make huge reforms as well.

 

DB do you think given the state of the nation today that the housing road map you did at the end of May has changed at all? 

 

[Axeman123]

Just in case you were wondering how things were going:

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Just in case you were wondering how things were going:

Now that will embarrass the US and the financial parasites that run it.

[Pip321]

Getting really mixed positions locally in terms of ‘how it’s all going’. 

Builder I know has had 4 cancellations for large extensions ie £50k type jobs because the costs had gone up and customers not prepared to spend  

Decorator I know (smaller costing jobs v the builder) absolutely flat out….now charging £200/£220 a day in the sunny North Yorkshire. Plus so are his peers. And I mean really busy and have been throughout covid too. 

Very large jobs ie house demolition and full rebuild on plots in best spots in town still going ahead with an almost disregard for if the numbers add up or if the property market goes against them. Feels like £2m is a drop in their ocean. 

Feels as though I am seeing almost a 2 tier economy opening up. Small jobs possibly ok, massive job by very wealthy fine too….but the middle ground earners putting the brakes on.

Small sample, factual reporting but at this sample size probably too anecdotal. 

One thing that’s consistent is no one I know is focussed on the stock market, the BK or indeed anything other than the next few months and maybe trying to fit in a holiday. 

[CannonFodder]

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

Just in case you were wondering how things were going:

As they abstained in the UN votes against Russia, they have half a good chance.

Some new states may need to be recognised for the other half.

A lot of nations may be questioning their votes now

[Axeman123]

7 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Now that will embarrass the US and the financial parasites that run it.

Imagine a Russian Federation (or even BRICS/Chinese joint operated) naval base there! It would be more than embarassing.

[spygirl]

12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The Paras should earn what they do,but 3 bed semis with gardens should be £90k,an immigrant should get zero access to bennies or services for 10 years of NI payments and the bennie cap should be £10k.The minimum wage of a single person working 37+ hours should be double the what the maximum bennies are however many kids.Family formation then happens as all working men become an asset to family income.

OMFG!

DB has hacked my account ....

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Getting really mixed positions locally in terms of ‘how it’s all going’. 

Builder I know has had 4 cancellations for large extensions ie £50k type jobs because the costs had gone up and customers not prepared to spend  

Decorator I know (smaller costing jobs v the builder) absolutely flat out….now charging £200/£220 a day in the sunny North Yorkshire. Plus so are his peers. And I mean really busy and have been throughout covid too. 

Very large jobs ie house demolition and full rebuild on plots in best spots in town still going ahead with an almost disregard for if the numbers add up or if the property market goes against them. Feels like £2m is a drop in their ocean. 

Feels as though I am seeing almost a 2 tier economy opening up. Small jobs possibly ok, massive job by very wealthy fine too….but the middle ground earners putting the brakes on.

Small sample, factual reporting but at this sample size probably too anecdotal. 

One thing that’s consistent is no one I know is focussed on the stock market, the BK or indeed anything other than the next few months and maybe trying to fit in a holiday. 

I was going to post a Guardian link on Sunday, but it locked me out for some reason. HSE and Gas Safe have reported that gas safety inspections have fallen by a third in the last year, due to the cost of living crises. This ties in with my experience , told me wife only a week ago, that I was looking at 30% less work this year.

[CannonFodder]

9 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Imagine a Russian Federation (or even BRICS/Chinese joint operated) naval base there! It would be more than embarassing.

Well there is a suitable location

The eastern station for the navy of the British Empire

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SLN_Dockyard

 

7 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I was going to post a Guardian link on Sunday, but it locked me out for some reason. HSE and Gas Safe have reported that gas safety inspections have fallen by a third in the last year, due to the cost of living crises. This ties in with my experience , told me wife only a week ago, that I was looking at 30% less work this year.

Put your rates up by 30% - sorted

[Noallegiance]

28 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Just in case you were wondering how things were going:

Fuck me you wouldn't want to be in their position; About as desperate as desperate can be with the begging bowl out to the Russian government.

[King Penda]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

One over the road is up the duff again,no 6,they will never fit in her new BMW.Retired copper step dad getting the £600 a month bennies for the rent + his 10% pension increase.

Play the system at its own game I don’t see a 3 bed terrace here I see a way of useing the system against itself .I’d happily live in the minute bedroom if I was working 4/5 nights a week and rent out 2 bedrooms and a downstairs room if you could put up with that for 2 years it’s about 23k tax free and what you can save on top.maybe the best bet would be rent 2 bedrooms out use the downstairs front room privately (a sofa bed )and keep the insanely small room for if my young lad stays the night.that’s about 16k tax free over 2 years and with your own room downstairs has the lodgers could use the main lounge.https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/124619453?utm_campaign=property-details&utm_content=buying&utm_medium=sharing&utm_source=copytoclipboard#/&channel=RES_BUY

[sancho panza]

11 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Big thanks to whoever it was posted that Stanley Druckenmiller video.

 

I've been a big fan of his for years but first time I've ever seen a long-form interview.

 

It really brought home how he emphasises how vital lags and leads are, that's his basis for almost every investment decision.

 

He also pointed out how it's almost a lost art to look at certain sectors as canaries in the coalmine for booms or busts. 

 

He concludes that we've never seen economic circumstances like this before so its almost impossible to predict how this ends. All he can say with certainty is that the answer is almost certainly "very badly". 

Whcih video is this TC?Can you psot a link,sounds interesting.

 

10 hours ago, feed said:

Bezos called Biden a fool or a liar yesterday.  

Bezos is wealthy, he wants to stay wealthy and knows how energy costs and associate inflation will destroy him.  

This goes back to  @M S E Refugee said yesterday about the West looking like 'stone cold losers' at the minute.Same goes for Joe.When your party's own Big tech is openly mocking you,it's over.

[Castlevania]

4 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Watch this relativity short clip, how history rhymes eh?

 

Almost all of those terraces were demolished shortly afterwards.