London flats valuing at 2016 prices

[Bobthebuilder]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

But imho all of England is shite, just London financially rapes the rest of the country to prosper, hence why it gets the extra kicking.

I really like a lot of the UK, I would say almost all of it is amazing in its own way. Wales to Scotland, Dorset to Dundee. As for cities Manchester is great, Newcastle upon Tyne is a really awesome place to visit.

The common thing I notice everywhere I go is, I like the places I visit but, the locals always hate London. Makes me cry and laugh in equal measure.

 

[AWW]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

In my area it has gone from EE to middle class bearded folk with lockdown hair and posh cars.

Out of interest, whereabouts is your area BTB?  I sold a house near Crystal Palace in the teeth of the 2008 crash (relationship breakup, couldn't be arsed to sort out keeping hold of it) and suspect you're going to make me wish I'd held on...

[Bobthebuilder]

23 minutes ago, AWW said:

Out of interest, whereabouts is your area BTB?  I sold a house near Crystal Palace in the teeth of the 2008 crash (relationship breakup, couldn't be arsed to sort out keeping hold of it) and suspect you're going to make me wish I'd held on...

Plumstead.

[Lightscribe]

10 hours ago, AWW said:

Out of interest, whereabouts is your area BTB?  I sold a house near Crystal Palace in the teeth of the 2008 crash (relationship breakup, couldn't be arsed to sort out keeping hold of it) and suspect you're going to make me wish I'd held on...

I live around that area, you were better to have sold when you did (although you could have got more money for a house now) as things have gone downhill IMO.

I’ve also lived (apart from travelling around the world) around the suburbs pretty much my whole life and commuted in centrally for 20 years. 

London is fucked in short, or more specifically house prices, which has a knock on effect to its businesses and economy in general.

Yes 1 million people disappearing isn’t a large number in the grander scheme of things. But it’s the demographic of that number that is important. That number consisted mainly of service and office workers. Pretty much majority of populous in the London suburbs are in the Bennie brigade.

The Covid effects haven’t really fully been realised yet. My public sector organisation has absolutely no plans to get staff back any time soon. None of anyone I know has gone back. Yes my trains/tubes are fairly busy but footfall is nothing like it was.

Keep an eye on the new financial year in April. More TFL bailouts, private rail will suffer, services reduced. Small businesses already suffering and surviving on last years stock, lower footfall, inflation doubling their prices that they will try and pass on to the consumer. Mortgage rates rising and BTL landlords trying to offload it onto renters resulting in voting with their feet. 

What you get then is the ‘broken window effect’ and areas start to look shabby, with closed, boarded up places and crime rises, which mean the luvvies move out. This is cylindrical over decades. Brixton was posh and well to do in the 50/60’s, then a dump in the 80/90’s, now posh again.

Croydon was actually a decent place to go out once upon a time, shopping, decent transport links, restaurants etc (south). It tried to regain that, now failed miserably due to Westfield being cancelled and the Labour council making off and getting out of dodge with golden handshakes.

Basically shitty non-prime areas of London will return to that state once property prices go the other way and that is starting to happen. The myriads of new build flats, combined with cladding issues and sky rocketing service charges, and now mortgage rates going up with make them unsellable.

[Boon]

Everything is sellable at the right price. Unfortunately a lot of the housebuilders here seem bloody well capitalised and not in debt, it would be funny to see one of the big ones having to do an Evergrande-style fire sale.

But yes, I agree with all that. The cyclical thing is area gets shit, property prices get cheap, people move in, area gets 'gentrified', property gets expensive, investment dries up, area gets shit again, etc

Places like Stratford and Croydon will not lose their transport links but it seems obvious that the 'investment dries up' stage is reached.

One of the questions is, historically the people that moved into these areas were either those dropping down from more expensive areas because of better value, or those upgrading from even further out areas. Another category got added later with migrants, usually poorer ones at that. The latter seems much harder now, so what then?

In some of the shitter areas I am unsure how the bubble keeps going. Hopefully the realisation will be quick, it seems absolutely lost on government that improving affordability can be had by simply allowing prices to fall for a bit.

[HousePriceMania]

On 30/10/2021 at 15:10, Axeman123 said:

https://www.property118.com/remortgage-problems-with-0-00-growth/comment-page-2/#comments

Here we have it, straight from the horse's arse!

2016 was the peak and asking prices on property lion were down 10%, they're now back up at peak levels.

 

[Boon]

Presumably that is taking London as an aggregate?

Even pre-covid I don't see flats surpassing some of their prices in 2016.

Houses on the other hand have not had the same issue. Almost like two different markets, some of the prices suburban houses went for (and are still up for) seem real high.

All those landlords must be talking about flats. So that is why you have the dude whinging that his property has gone up by 0% when the aggregated area was up be 32% in that time - all of the gains were in houses.

[spunko]

On 31/10/2021 at 08:50, AWW said:

Where are all these Londoners going to flee to? Birmingham? Manchester? I don't think so.

Cornwall, Kent, Hertfordshire, Essex, Sussex, Surrey. Pretty much anywhere. All of the new builds here are being bought by ex-Londoners. It makes sense to sell your shitty 3 bed terrace and move into a 5 bed detached in the "countryside". Of course the cruel irony is it's not going to be countryside for much longer with all the other Londoners coming down.

That's why I hate Londoners. The ones that stay are okay, it's the ones that move down here and then whine when they cannot get a Dominos delivered. And they're the "decent" Londoners. About 30-40% of all new build estates are being bought by London councils, they are moving their scummy tenants out into the Home Counties. The local council is doing well out of it because they receive a fee for each one. Most of these people in "affordable housing" have mental health issues, don't speak the lingo, etc etc. It's a travesty. Fuck London.

[Axeman123]

11 minutes ago, spunko said:

About 30-40% of all new build estates are being bought by London councils, they are moving their scummy tenants out into the Home Counties. The local council is doing well out of it because they receive a fee for each one. Most of these people in "affordable housing" have mental health issues, don't speak the lingo, etc etc. It's a travesty. Fuck London.

On a related note Milton keynes has a (proportionately) huge homeless population, centred around the train station. London councils buy them one way tickets to get rid. Not even a conspiracy theory.

[AWW]

4 hours ago, spunko said:

That's why I hate Londoners. The ones that stay are okay, it's the ones that move down here and then whine when they cannot get a Dominos delivered.

Can't say I disagree with you there.

Equally as bad are the ones who stay, but pretend that some traffic-choked parade of shops in a trendy bit of London suburbia feels exactly like living in a village in the Peak District.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

20 hours ago, spunko said:

Cornwall, Kent, Hertfordshire, Essex, Sussex, Surrey. Pretty much anywhere. All of the new builds here are being bought by ex-Londoners. It makes sense to sell your shitty 3 bed terrace and move into a 5 bed detached in the "countryside". Of course the cruel irony is it's not going to be countryside for much longer with all the other Londoners coming down.

That's why I hate Londoners. The ones that stay are okay, it's the ones that move down here and then whine when they cannot get a Dominos delivered. And they're the "decent" Londoners. About 30-40% of all new build estates are being bought by London councils, they are moving their scummy tenants out into the Home Counties. The local council is doing well out of it because they receive a fee for each one. Most of these people in "affordable housing" have mental health issues, don't speak the lingo, etc etc. It's a travesty. Fuck London.

These same London councils are building infill housing on the green areas their 20th century predecessors thought essential for wellbeing on council estates. For migrants of course.

They're evil fuckers. Corrupt too.

[One percent]

30 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

These same London councils are building infill housing on the green areas their 20th century predecessors thought essential for wellbeing on council estates. For migrants of course.

They're evil fuckers. Corrupt too.

Same happening here oop north. Only it’s the scum house builders doing it. On all the green areas on estates. They are even planning to put a massive estate on the golf course. Yet the numbers of people resident in the town is lower than it was 20 years ago.