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Just how effective are the vaccines?


Norfolk Variant
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mosstrooper

And we,re not even in proper winter yet when respiratory illnesses wreak most damage. There could be a bad winter episode coming up leading to lockdowns.

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1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

They offer "A high level of short term efficacy".

Nothing lasts forever!

The spikes do...

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@Norfolk Variant good work. Would the arrival of delta variant coincide with any spike and changes to the animations?

Btw I'm doubtful unvaxxed people will be more cautious in behavior than vaxxed especially as most unvaxed are kids/teens/younger so more likely the opposite.

Edited by Ninja
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Norfolk Variant
29 minutes ago, Ninja said:

@Norfolk Variant good work. Would the arrival of delta variant coincide with any spike and changes to the animations?

Btw I'm doubtful unvaxxed people will be more cautious in behavior than vaxxed especially as most unvaxed are kids/teens/younger so more likely the opposite.

I agree. I would find it hard to believe that entire London boroughs (some of the lowest vaccinated LTLAs) are hiding at home and taking extra care because they didn't get vaccinated.

My theory goes something along the following lines and someone like @dgul may be able to express it more succinctly (or just pour cold water on it :-)). So here goes:

  1. Covid is a disease that represents a threat to life to those with multiple underlying health issues (and this includes obesity).
  2. Covid is NOT primarily a disease of the old. However, older people tend to have more health issues and are therefore at greater risk statistically as a group.
  3. The risk groups are well known and vaccination levels are generally high amongst them. And more importantly, vaccination levels are reasonably constant across the whole country in these groups (I can't prove this)This seems logical to me as even if you are sceptical you are more likely to succumb to the message to get vaccinated if you know you are in a high risk group.
  4. This would explain the constant death rate across all LTLAs even though overall vaccination levels vary significantly.
  5. Most people who die are in the high risk groups and the vaccine is offering some protection (for a while) so we find that the majority of deaths are in the unvaccinated even though cases are higher in the vaccinated.
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lovelyboy

Great work @Norfolk Variant at some stage this needs a wider audience than just DOSBODS.

My personal opinion is that natural immunity is playing a role. In your 'cases' animation, the sudden flip from negative to positive correlation came immediately after the surge in total cases. This surge in cases could have led to greater natural immunity in the unvaccinated cohort which would explain why the regression line flipped to positive.

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It could be the case that areas with lower uptake of vaccinations also have a lower number of people who don't rush to take a test whenever they feel a bit under the weather?

I've been neither jabbed or tested, the government figures would show that I've never had COVID, I however may be asymptomatic 

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3 hours ago, Norfolk Variant said:

However, that doesn’t explain why we now see more cases in the most vaccinated areas . Surely cases would have dropped in the highly vaccinated areas until the vaccine wore off and then risen back up to the levels of the lower vaccinated areas? But this isn’t the case. So something else is obviously going on. Could it just be people who are vaccinated behave less carefully because they think they are protected or is something more nasty at work, like ADE etc.

I’d be interested to hear the comments or ideas of others about what the video might be showing.

I think this might account for that.

The lowest percentage vaccinated areas are the metropolitan areas, high ethnic populations which the narrative at least (and pretty sure any data) have indicated have the lowest takeup. `these areas have a skew to age groups to the younger side and these areas were the ones where due presumably to proximity to high contact / high interaction / travel hubs had considerably larger exposure in 2020 to the virus.

The highest percentage vaccinated areas, more rural populations, with an older age group, this year from the postcode and geolocated data are showing the highest case rates in 2021, a complete reversal overall compared to 2020.  There is the issue of large percentage of cases in say school age children, but again that could also be explained by high density spread first in 2020 in metropolitan areas and then this year to the less densely populated areas overall.

 

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Rollseyes

Seem quite effective at injuring people. Of course, this was not purpose because we are told they are safe and the Govts are so confident they waved liability for Big Pharma. 

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18 hours ago, Norfolk Variant said:

Recently I noticed that certain ares in my region that had a low uptake of the vaccine seemed to have consistently lower levels of infection. This seemed to be duplicated in other areas. Confirmation bias perhaps?

To find out I decided to crunch the numbers for a single day about a week ago and the following graph popped out:

 

scatter.thumb.png.290e02527c44b2804ca2bde864d64b6d.png

Some of you may remember seeing this on another thread. It clearly shows that the MSOAs with higher vaccine uptake tended, on average, to have higher levels of infection.

This really piqued my interest so I decided to dig further. At this point I switched from MSOA to LTLA (Lower Tier Local Authority) data. This inevitably reduced my data points from around 8,000 down to just over 300, but unsurprisingly, the same picture emerged. (I decided to switch to LTLA data as death data is also available at this level – more on that to come):

cases_ltla_2021-10-30.thumb.png.2a3ff5ce5492c5666af66cdb962f4a1f.png

 

Perhaps I shouldn’t have been too surprised by this since the most recent PHE data clearly shows that infections per 100,000 (i.e. normalised) are more common in vaccinated than unvaccinated individuals. On the surface this seems to imply that the vaccine has negative efficacy which hardly inspires confidence.

To try and find out whether this has always been the case I went back through all the data since the beginning of the second jab and plotted the graph for each and every day (start of March up to now). From these graphs I created this video:

 

 

This seems to show that until around the 18th August there was some evidence of limited efficacy for reducing infections, but since that date it has been consistently negative. What I find interesting is that the flip from positive to negative wasn’t gradual – it happened really suddenly, in the space of a few days.

So, my conclusion was that any efficacy of the vaccines was limited and short lived. Perhaps this ties in with the government’s claim that boosters are needed.

However, that doesn’t explain why we now see more cases in the most vaccinated areas . Surely cases would have dropped in the highly vaccinated areas until the vaccine wore off and then risen back up to the levels of the lower vaccinated areas? But this isn’t the case. So something else is obviously going on. Could it just be people who are vaccinated behave less carefully because they think they are protected or is something more nasty at work, like ADE etc.

I’d be interested to hear the comments or ideas of others about what the video might be showing.

I will post a ‘Part 2’ to this thread in a while which covers deaths – and early plots show that that is equally interesting.

That's really excellent -- thanks for doing it.

I can only think that the switch change is due to a new variant.

 

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lovelyboy
28 minutes ago, Stunley Andwin said:

This is absolutely brilliant and would tie in entirely with the data seen in the vaccine surveillance reports. You have done analysis that is more useful than the entirety of mainstream media has produced.

You could send it to Daily Sceptic https://dailysceptic.org/forums/ or to twitter users such as @toadmeister @JamesDelingpole @alexmaccaroon @BernieSpofforth or @FatEmperor

Agree, this deserves a wider audience.

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Democorruptcy

1. Cases are worse when schools are open

2. Immediately after being jabbed immunity drops temporarily, people think it's safer do do more but it's worse.

Cases are higher because the schools are open and we are jabbing more again (children & boosters) so it's 1 + 2.

 

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The Masked Tulip

Excellent @Norfolk Variant

It is only an anecdotal response but, in my part of the UK, I think people are just arrogantly assuming that they are perfectly fine being double-jabbed. It is also noticeable that the richer areas of Swansea are more likely to have 50-somethings plus acting as if they are invincible now. Still lots of masks everywhere but there is a certain arrogance that you see when people leave shops and immediately remove masks. Little consideration seems to be given to those who look frail or old and who wear the masks everywhere.

Sorry, gone off on a tangent.

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Democorruptcy
1 hour ago, The Masked Tulip said:

Excellent @Norfolk Variant

It is only an anecdotal response but, in my part of the UK, I think people are just arrogantly assuming that they are perfectly fine being double-jabbed. It is also noticeable that the richer areas of Swansea are more likely to have 50-somethings plus acting as if they are invincible now. Still lots of masks everywhere but there is a certain arrogance that you see when people leave shops and immediately remove masks. Little consideration seems to be given to those who look frail or old and who wear the masks everywhere.

Sorry, gone off on a tangent.

:Old: You don't wear a mask and are calling people who want to take theirs off as soon as possible - arrogant? It might be more a sign of defiance against the rules.

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The Masked Tulip
15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

:Old: You don't wear a mask and are calling people who want to take theirs off as soon as possible - arrogant? It might be more a sign of defiance against the rules.

 

No, it ain't that. You have to see it in practice to understand it I think. Very odd behaviour. Someone will write a paper on it I suspect.

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Democorruptcy
1 minute ago, The Masked Tulip said:

 

No, it ain't that. You have to see it in practice to understand it I think. Very odd behaviour. Someone will write a paper on it I suspect.

I don't think there's anything odd about wanting to remove a mask as soon as possible. I think you would have to wear one to understand.

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The Masked Tulip
Just now, Democorruptcy said:

I don't think there's anything odd about wanting to remove a mask as soon as possible. I think you would have to wear one to understand.

 

OK.

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5 minutes ago, The Masked Tulip said:

 

No, it ain't that. You have to see it in practice to understand it I think. Very odd behaviour. Someone will write a paper on it I suspect.

It has to be pointed out to the majority here that in Wales there is still a legal mandate to wear a face-mask while in places like shops.  Unlike for England even during the worst of it all, this is a law, not advice.

People taking off their facemask the minute they leave a shop are complying with the law, but indicate that they consider the facemask as actually offering zero benefit.  (I suppose there will be some that think that their risks are substantial within shops and zero outside, but I'd guess by now that those are the minority).

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@Norfolk Variant ot but can I ask how you learnt how to do this sort of modelling?  The moving graphic is especially impressive.  I've heard of power bi (I think that's what it's called), guessing you have to do extra legwork to add that feature in.

Anyway thanks for doing so.  Visuals like this give a stark but clear picture to events and really help to make some sense of this stuff easier to interpret for the layman.

 

 

 

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