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Just how effective are the vaccines?


Norfolk Variant
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OurDayWillCome

I looked at that animation and the lyrics,  ‘99 dead balloons go by’ came to mind.

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Wight Flight
1 hour ago, OurDayWillCome said:

I looked at that animation and the lyrics,  ‘99 dead balloons go by’ came to mind.

Good point. Graphs need soundtracks.

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steppensheep
2 hours ago, Norfolk Variant said:

I'm a retired software engineer with too much spare time on my hands

Can you do separate graphs for Lon/Scot/Wales/urban/rural.

I think they have an Id code that identifies them with the first digit.

To be a bit of a party pooper, I did this with the German states (unanimated, only 16 data points) and up to a few weeks ago it showed a nice correlation (infections increasing with vaccinations) but has now reversed. (And the German politicians are now highlighting it!). It may be showing something, but I think it is masked by the way the waves move geographically.

Edit. Lovely work, btw.

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JoeDavola
4 hours ago, Norfolk Variant said:

I'm a retired software engineer with too much spare time on my hands. My bread and butter for the past 35 years has been broadcast video/audio based systems so processing/manipulating large amounts of data is sort of second nature to me.

I don't have any particular skills in the area of data analysis - just a logical and numerate mind.

The original data sets were downloaded as CSV files from the government website. These were read and processed by some C code I wrote that generated a new CSV file for each day's data.

Each file that I generated was used to generate a single graph using mathplotlib, a python library that @onlymesuggested I take a look at which makes generating professional looking graphs really easy. I had to learn a bit of Python, but it isn't too hard for an old dyed in the wool C/C++ programmer. The Python code automatically processed each file in turn making light work of the task.

Each graph file (.PNG format) was then used as an input to ffmpeg (a video/audio processing tool) to generate an MP4 video file which are playable on just about any device these days.

Brilliant.

Perfect example of why it's nice to know how to program, even if you don't need to do it for money.

Great job.

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JoeDavola

Next step is to make a short YouTube video with narration explaining what @Norfolk Variant did in simple terms, then showing the moving graphs, then the conclusions.

Bound to go viral, and/or get removed from YouTube :D

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9 minutes ago, lovelyboy said:

This article has it all...

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-irelands-co-waterford-120700657.html

Waterford in Ireland where 99.5% of adults over the age of 18 are double-jabbed; one of the highest rates of any region anywhere in the world. Well, guess what; the county now tops the national infection league table!

The article goes on to promote the new narrative. It's not that the vaccines are shit. Oh no! it's our behaviour that's the problem. You see we've become complacent when actually what we need is even more restrictions. 

"The ones I pity is the grandparents still living at home worried sick about getting this thing" says some random bloke on the street.

Just let it sink in, 99.5% of the population double jabbed and the solution is more lockdowns. Thankfully, Professor Luke O'Neill, an immunologist at Trinity College Dublin, is on hand to explain that us plebs have just "misunderstood what the vaccines were supposed to achieve"....

"The function of the vaccine is to stop illness and death, that's the primary goal, and the vaccines are holding up, it's great."

Er? Really? I'm sure I remember being told the vaccines were to stop transmission. That's why I was being irresponsible in not getting the jab, that's why school children are being jabbed even though they are not personally at risk.

If the goal of the vaccination is to stop illness/death, then I was right all along - it is my personal choice to opt for natural immunity and I'm pleased to see that 99.5% of the population of Waterford in Ireland support my decision.

It's most like all they do is just talk a load of utter lies and shit and should be [redacted], or at least ignored

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  • 3 weeks later...
Norfolk Variant

Resurrecting an old thread of mine.

I get outliers in my data all the time and they stick out like sore thumbs. Today's plot of cases by percent double jabbed (per LTLA) has a good example (see green arrow):

Inkedcases_ltla_2021-11-20_LI.thumb.jpg.63a8c28cb8b3b5819b6cbef4caca42e4.jpg

It turns out that it's Torridge (North Devon) and it seems to be having a spot of bother at the moment despite being one of the most vaccinated areas of the UK at 82% double jabbed. Time will tell how many cases are actually converted to deaths, so I will report back in 28 days time.

This particular spike has been picked up by local BBC news: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-59303322. The graph in the article is obviously a little out of date now as cases are now above 1,000 per 100,000.

The article ends with the slightly ridiculous statement from Selaine Saxby, Conservative MP for North Devon "So the vaccine programme is sort of our way out of the pandemic".

Well yeah, sort of, maybe perhaps. Lacks any real conviction or belief I suspect.

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Norfolk Variant

Meanwhile, Newham (London Borough) currently has the lowest case rate in the UK (228 per 100,000) despite having the second lowest rate of double vaccinated residents (just 52.4%).

Scratches chin and wonders...

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4 minutes ago, Norfolk Variant said:

Meanwhile, Newham (London Borough) currently has the lowest case rate in the UK (228 per 100,000) despite having the second lowest rate of double vaccinated residents (just 52.4%).

Scratches chin and wonders...

I would guess age. Newham is full of displacers and they tend to be younger with large families. Perhaps Torridge is full of old folk?  

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Norfolk Variant
Just now, One percent said:

I would guess age. Newham is full of displacers and they tend to be younger with large families. Perhaps Torridge is full of old folk?  

Yep. You got it in one.

So why the obsession with vaccinating the young? Rhetorical question BTW.

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stop_the_craziness
32 minutes ago, One percent said:

I would guess age. Newham is full of displacers and they tend to be younger with large families. Perhaps Torridge is full of old folk?  

Old folk also probably more likely to test and more likely to have to test because more likely to be in regular attendance at hospital.  If you're younger, unvaxxed and living in Newham and don't need to go to hospital then you probably don't take a test ever, you just get on with living your life instead.

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Chewing Grass
3 minutes ago, stop_the_craziness said:

Old folk also probably more likely to test and more likely to have to test because more likely to be in regular attendance at hospital.  If you're younger, unvaxxed and living in Newham and don't need to go to hospital then you probably don't take a test ever, you just get on with living your life instead.

Plus only white people in the main do tests, the stats would be very revealing but they won't be revealed.

 

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Very low population density area, only really matched in England by areas in the North, but those are closer to higher population density areas. So, in this or other waves the last to get hit and maybe had very few cases in previous waves so gets hit harder in a proper breakout in one shot, especially without the surveillance that other areas get.

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Norfolk Variant
4 hours ago, onlyme said:

Very low population density area, only really matched in England by areas in the North, but those are closer to higher population density areas. So, in this or other waves the last to get hit and maybe had very few cases in previous waves so gets hit harder in a proper breakout in one shot, especially without the surveillance that other areas get.

So despite getting highly vaccinated, these areas still have to get their immunity the natural way?

If so, I wonder what next year has in store for our antipodean friends.

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7 hours ago, Norfolk Variant said:

So despite getting highly vaccinated, these areas still have to get their immunity the natural way?

If so, I wonder what next year has in store for our antipodean friends.

Evidence is showing natural immunity is longer lasting (original SARS data suggested very long immunity after infection), now you could argue that that as a therapeutic the vaccine acts as a means to gain natural immunity acting as a therapeutic, but then so could have any normal therapeutic course drugs if investigated properly - which they intentionally haven't been, the trials and those promoting them have been suppressed.

There is the issue if the vaccine actually suppresses the gain of natural immunity by biasing the body's response to target a particular spike protein or indeed if the vaccine unwinds the natural immunity gained from an infection before or between vaccine shots.

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