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Major automakers do not commit to the banning of petrol & diesel cars by 2040


Dave Beans

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Chewing Grass
20 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

 

 

A lot of countries can't even produce enough electricity for basic stuff let alone charging cars, trucks and commercial vehicles. Can see zero success in Africa or other places where anything of scrap value is stolen.

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1 minute ago, Chewing Grass said:

A lot of countries can't even produce enough electricity for basic stuff let alone charging cars, trucks and commercial vehicles. Can see zero success in Africa or other places where anything of scrap value is stolen.

You mean countries like the UK?

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On 10/11/2021 at 19:16, Chewing Grass said:

A lot of countries can't even produce enough electricity for basic stuff let alone charging cars, trucks and commercial vehicles. Can see zero success in Africa or other places where anything of scrap value is stolen.

 

And the UK has barely started with the huge infrastructure required.

By 2030 Boris will be history as will the 2030 ban on ICEs; no government feels themselves bound to uphold the promises of a previous government. Especially the really stupid promises.

 

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Aye, it's like turkeys voting for a vegan crimbo when there are no vegan turkeys on sale yet. xD

ICE ban will be put on ice. Too much power by those selling oil, so lots of 'blah blah save the world' and no real action beyond taxing the idiots thinking a paper straw at macdonalds will save a polar bear with no ice to walk on.

Ice ice baby! xD

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rog8ou-ZepE

[for some reason some youtube links don't embed, perhaps they don't want the message spreading too easy xD]

 

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On 12/11/2021 at 10:08, Frank Hovis said:

 

And the UK has barely started with the huge infrastructure required.

By 2030 Boris will be history as will the 2030 ban on ICEs; no government feels themselves bound to uphold the promises of a previous government. Especially the really stupid promises.

 

No government feels bound to uphold any promises is what you mean.

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  • 2 months later...
On 12/11/2021 at 10:08, Frank Hovis said:

 

And the UK has barely started with the huge infrastructure required.

By 2030 Boris will be history as will the 2030 ban on ICEs; no government feels themselves bound to uphold the promises of a previous government. Especially the really stupid promises.

 

I dont agree, I would say between 2025 and 2027 we will have passed an EV tipping point of no return, not that we will be more than ready for EV's for all, but where New ice sales will have collapsed so much that it will have domino effects, as all those that can go EV will (at least 50% of the country) , wont go back to ICE, so New ICE sales will be minimal, so there is bugger all to feed into the nearly new / 2/ 3 year old market. 

This will force existing older ICE car owners to remain in older and older stock, but then due to the collapse in fuel duty revenue a per mile travel tax will come in paid for by EVERY car, so a double whammy on the remaining ICE drivers. 

This will again push them to abandon ICE more due to the burden of Fuel Duty tax , and want EV's which will push a WAVE of new laws much and faster amounts of new EV charging points installed everywhere . 

Also at roughly 25% global fleet EV's , which should be by 2030 , oil companies will collapse due to lost revenues and Petrol stations with it.  

We will see change this decade the likes of which have not been seen since the end of WW1 and "Peak Horse" . 

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whitevanman
1 hour ago, markyh said:

I dont agree, I would say between 2025 and 2027 we will have passed an EV tipping point of no return, not that we will be more than ready for EV's for all, but where New ice sales will have collapsed so much that it will have domino effects, as all those that can go EV will (at least 50% of the country) , wont go back to ICE, so New ICE sales will be minimal, so there is bugger all to feed into the nearly new / 2/ 3 year old market. 

This will force existing older ICE car owners to remain in older and older stock, but then due to the collapse in fuel duty revenue a per mile travel tax will come in paid for by EVERY car, so a double whammy on the remaining ICE drivers. 

This will again push them to abandon ICE more due to the burden of Fuel Duty tax , and want EV's which will push a WAVE of new laws much and faster amounts of new EV charging points installed everywhere . 

Also at roughly 25% global fleet EV's , which should be by 2030 , oil companies will collapse due to lost revenues and Petrol stations with it.  

We will see change this decade the likes of which have not been seen since the end of WW1 and "Peak Horse" . 

The horse was superseded by the car because the car offered greater value to the travelling public. It was a market led transition. 

The transition from ICE to electric is led by government legislation. It’s a technocratic mission pushed by the likes of the EU and UN. That’s a recipe from massive misallocation of resources that could end in disaster for everyone 

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Caravan Monster
6 hours ago, markyh said:

I dont agree, I would say between 2025 and 2027 we will have passed an EV tipping point of no return, not that we will be more than ready for EV's for all, but where New ice sales will have collapsed so much that it will have domino effects, as all those that can go EV will (at least 50% of the country) , wont go back to ICE, so New ICE sales will be minimal, so there is bugger all to feed into the nearly new / 2/ 3 year old market. 

This will force existing older ICE car owners to remain in older and older stock, but then due to the collapse in fuel duty revenue a per mile travel tax will come in paid for by EVERY car, so a double whammy on the remaining ICE drivers. 

This will again push them to abandon ICE more due to the burden of Fuel Duty tax , and want EV's which will push a WAVE of new laws much and faster amounts of new EV charging points installed everywhere . 

Also at roughly 25% global fleet EV's , which should be by 2030 , oil companies will collapse due to lost revenues and Petrol stations with it.  

We will see change this decade the likes of which have not been seen since the end of WW1 and "Peak Horse" . 

See your thinking, but not sure. EVs often seem to be owned in addition to, rather than as a replacement for ICE cars. A toy for short journeys owned by those with the resources to fund and have parking for several vehicles. People driving less and looking to reduce travel costs because of work from home more likely to want a cheap second hand run around, not a £100k Tesla. Agree that fleet buyers seem to be currently increasingly keen on EVs, but suspect that these will be difficult to shift through the auctions into the second hand market, especially with questionable and expensive batteries. Sort of like the odd ball petrol vans councils and the like went through various phases of running that weren't popular as second hand buys.

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5 hours ago, whitevanman said:

The horse was superseded by the car because the car offered greater value to the travelling public. It was a market led transition. 

The transition from ICE to electric is led by government legislation. It’s a technocratic mission pushed by the likes of the EU and UN. That’s a recipe from massive misallocation of resources that could end in disaster for everyone 

Climate change. This is all about net zero 2050, not 2030.  The thinking being the youngest ice in 2050 will ne 21 years old, check Autotrader, the number of 20+ year old cars still about is only in the 10's of thousands. 

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4 minutes ago, Caravan Monster said:

See your thinking, but not sure. EVs often seem to be owned in addition to, rather than as a replacement for ICE cars. A toy for short journeys owned by those with the resources to fund and have parking for several vehicles. People driving less and looking to reduce travel costs because of work from home more likely to want a cheap second hand run around, not a £100k Tesla. Agree that fleet buyers seem to be currently increasingly keen on EVs, but suspect that these will be difficult to shift through the auctions into the second hand market, especially with questionable and expensive batteries. Sort of like the odd ball petrol vans councils and the like went through various phases of running that weren't popular as second hand buys.

The tech is always improving, we have had 2 EV's and no ICE since 2016 , although 1 has always been a EREV in a Chevy Volt. But now in 2022 we will be 100% EV when our second Tesla arrives in March. 

Huge demand 2nd hand for EV's due or ULEZ / congestion charge zones popping up everywhere. People "can" easily" live with them, especially if the alternative is no car and public transport only. Then suddenly overnight charging and a few 1hr rapid charge sessions a year when travelling seem easy and better than a coach / train and huge costs. 

Our Volt went up in value after 2018 onwards to be worth more than it was at 4 years old in 2016. 

I do agree though the ONLY thing that will halt the removal of ICE for sale in 2030 is if getting closer it causes an economic collapse of some kind and big loss of taxes receipts. 

Watch this space. 

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Frank Hovis
8 hours ago, markyh said:

I dont agree, I would say between 2025 and 2027 we will have passed an EV tipping point of no return, not that we will be more than ready for EV's for all, but where New ice sales will have collapsed so much that it will have domino effects, as all those that can go EV will (at least 50% of the country) , wont go back to ICE, so New ICE sales will be minimal, so there is bugger all to feed into the nearly new / 2/ 3 year old market. 

This will force existing older ICE car owners to remain in older and older stock, but then due to the collapse in fuel duty revenue a per mile travel tax will come in paid for by EVERY car, so a double whammy on the remaining ICE drivers. 

This will again push them to abandon ICE more due to the burden of Fuel Duty tax , and want EV's which will push a WAVE of new laws much and faster amounts of new EV charging points installed everywhere . 

Also at roughly 25% global fleet EV's , which should be by 2030 , oil companies will collapse due to lost revenues and Petrol stations with it.  

We will see change this decade the likes of which have not been seen since the end of WW1 and "Peak Horse" . 

 

That parallel doesn't work because as @whitevanman says what is happening here is that we are being pushed to switch from superior private transport to inferior (price, range, longevity of major parts, ability to fuel and time to fuel) so that there will not be some tidal wave of switching, geeky early adopters aside, but rather a deep reluctance because for many on low wages their last ICE car will also be their last car.

My expectation is that we will have a patchwork country where the private streets of London will be full of electric cars whilst the rural areas resemble Cuba with sixty year old Vectras still being patched up because it's that or nothing.

This switch reveals such hubris from Boris in particular and I think it likely to be pushed back at the very least when people begin to wake up to how poor* most workers actually are, and the upcoming energy price hikes will drive that home, and that EVs are a rich man's indulgence in a poor country.

 

* UK GDP per capita is on a par with Malta.

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57 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

That parallel doesn't work because as @whitevanman says what is happening here is that we are being pushed to switch from superior private transport to inferior (price, range, longevity of major parts, ability to fuel and time to fuel) so that there will not be some tidal wave of switching, geeky early adopters aside, but rather a deep reluctance because for many on low wages their last ICE car will also be their last car.

My expectation is that we will have a patchwork country where the private streets of London will be full of electric cars whilst the rural areas resemble Cuba with sixty year old Vectras still being patched up because it's that or nothing.

This switch reveals such hubris from Boris in particular and I think it likely to be pushed back at the very least when people begin to wake up to how poor* most workers actually are, and the upcoming energy price hikes will drive that home, and that EVs are a rich man's indulgence in a poor country.

 

* UK GDP per capita is on a par with Malta.

This is just hysteria if you ask me from people who cant see change. Electricity is everywhere, we cant live without it, we need it more than ICE fuel.  Once we get 300 mile EV's cheaper than ICE, which will happen before 2030, the only use case for remaining ICE users is extreme energy use (Carrying or pulling very heavy loads). No one else will want to buy one. Rural have way less charging problems as they pretty much have space to charge everywhere, 80% of my village has dedicated off road parking. DNO's are already planning wiring and sub station upgrades. 

Charging solutions for the rest will come. Old EV's will be way more reliable than old ICE, and people will realise that by 2030 when the 2010-2016 Gen 1 cars that everyone bases bad press on are out of the system. 

I strongly suspect by 2048 laws will be passed banning any non classic ice 40+ years old from the roads on pollution grounds from 2050.  This means all the remaining 2011-2030 ICE cars will have to be SORN until 40 years old or scrapped. But at 20 years old youngest their value will be negligable.   

But will will have a good few years of high drama press and "issues" in a changeover for sure 2022-2027, of this i have no doubt. The poor will still have access to cheap EV's  in 2050, there will just be a price floor based of its recyclable "value" of its components. 

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Frank Hovis
7 minutes ago, markyh said:

This is just hysteria if you ask me from people who cant see change. Electricity is everywhere, we cant live without it, we need it more than ICE fuel.  Once we get 300 mile EV's cheaper than ICE, which will happen before 2030, the only use case for remaining ICE users is extreme energy use (Carrying or pulling very heavy loads). No one else will want to buy one. Rural have way less charging problems as they pretty much have space to charge everywhere, 80% of my village has dedicated off road parking. DNO's are already planning wiring and sub station upgrades. 

Charging solutions for the rest will come. Old EV's will be way more reliable than old ICE, and people will realise that by 2030 when the 2010-2016 Gen 1 cars that everyone bases bad press on are out of the system. 

I strongly suspect by 2048 laws will be passed banning any non classic ice 40+ years old from the roads on pollution grounds from 2050.  This means all the remaining 2011-2030 ICE cars will have to be SORN until 40 years old or scrapped. But at 20 years old youngest their value will be negligable.   

But will will have a good few years of high drama press and "issues" in a changeover for sure 2022-2027, of this i have no doubt. The poor will still have access to cheap EV's  in 2050, there will just be a price floor based of its recyclable "value" of its components. 

I think you're being wildly optimistic.

The proposed timescales are unrealistic.

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2 hours ago, markyh said:

The tech is always improving, we have had 2 EV's and no ICE since 2016 , although 1 has always been a EREV in a Chevy Volt. But now in 2022 we will be 100% EV when our second Tesla arrives in March. 

Huge demand 2nd hand for EV's due or ULEZ / congestion charge zones popping up everywhere. People "can" easily" live with them, especially if the alternative is no car and public transport only. Then suddenly overnight charging and a few 1hr rapid charge sessions a year when travelling seem easy and better than a coach / train and huge costs. 

Our Volt went up in value after 2018 onwards to be worth more than it was at 4 years old in 2016. 

I do agree though the ONLY thing that will halt the removal of ICE for sale in 2030 is if getting closer it causes an economic collapse of some kind and big loss of taxes receipts. 

Watch this space. 

This happened to lots of cars recently. My diesel now worth more than I paid for it 3 years ago. 

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8 minutes ago, ccc said:

This happened to lots of cars recently. My diesel now worth more than I paid for it 3 years ago. 

It has uber boosted 2nd hand EV's, our 2nd hand prices bottomed 2017 and started shooting up 2018-2019 when Covid was a myth.  Supply and demand imbalance. 

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32 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

I think you're being wildly optimistic.

The proposed timescales are unrealistic.

I like long term disagreement's, as proven on the bitcoin thread on TOS. unless COVID gets me happy to revisit the situation every January, suspect you will have the edge until 2026. 

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Frank Hovis
3 minutes ago, markyh said:

I like long term disagreement's, as proven on the bitcoin thread on TOS. unless COVID gets me happy to revisit the situation every January, suspect you will have the edge until 2026. 

 

You're on!

When I stand back and look at it I would say that a realistic date is 2045 - 2050 and think it a matter of time before the 2030 "deadline" is put back.

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sleepwello'nights
43 minutes ago, markyh said:

This is just hysteria if you ask me from people who cant see change. Electricity is everywhere, we cant live without it, we need it more than ICE fuel. 

With electricity prices set to increase the price advantage is diminishing. Governments will also have to inmtroduce new taxes to compensate for the reduction in tax and duty from petrol and diesel fuel.

With generating capacity falling what happens when there is a power outage. The widespread introduction of photovolotaic roof panels may assist those who can afford the capital cost.  Many can't or don't want to spend thousands on an installation or it is impractical for some other reason.   

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5 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

With electricity prices set to increase the price advantage is diminishing. Governments will also have to inmtroduce new taxes to compensate for the reduction in tax and duty from petrol and diesel fuel.

With generating capacity falling what happens when there is a power outage. The widespread introduction of photovolotaic roof panels may assist those who can afford the capital cost.  Many can't or don't want to spend thousands on an installation or it is impractical for some other reason.   

Ever seen "The Big Short" , and the "mortgage business is good in 2007" scene?  The whole fossil fuel industry uses huge amounts of leccy to extract, refine, transport and pump your ICE fuel. so.......

"The chances of ICE fuel remaining around £1.50 ltr in 2022 are Zero, ZERO."   By the end on 2022 you will be paying £2ltr minimum. 

 

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18 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

You're on!

When I stand back and look at it I would say that a realistic date is 2045 - 2050 and think it a matter of time before the 2030 "deadline" is put back.

Do you want to double up and take on the VW will overtake Tesla as the biggest EV maker in the world by 2030 view too?  Or are you not that dumb as Peter Hun is on TOS , lol 

BTW, i dont get it, why is HPC called TOS here? 

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sleepwello'nights
3 minutes ago, markyh said:

 

"The chances of ICE fuel remaining around £1.50 ltr in 2022 are Zero, ZERO."   By the end on 2022 you will be paying £2ltr minimum. 

 

The electricity supplier I've been changed to offers a two year fixed rate...40p kWh. Double the current variable rate. 

I don't see the current rates for off peak tariffs for EV's being retained. The price advantage you currently enjoy will diminish. 

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Frank Hovis
3 minutes ago, markyh said:

Ever seen "The Big Short" , and the "mortgage business is good in 2007" scene?  The whole fossil fuel industry uses huge amounts of leccy to extract, refine, transport and pump your ICE fuel. so.......

"The chances of ICE fuel remaining around £1.50 ltr in 2022 are Zero, ZERO."   By the end on 2022 you will be paying £2ltr minimum. 

 

 

Yes, I fully expect that.

Though as so much electricity is produced from fossil fuels that will be amplified in the electricity price.

Though the government is currently up to jiggery-pokery to increase the price of domestic gas and decrease the price of domestic electricity that it will dampen the effect this time.

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