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Major automakers do not commit to the banning of petrol & diesel cars by 2040


Dave Beans
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Frank Hovis
1 minute ago, markyh said:

Do you want to double up and take on the VW will overtake Tesla as the biggest EV maker in the world by 2030 view too?  Or are you not that dumb as Peter Hun is on TOS , lol 

BTW, i dont get it, why is HPC called TOS here? 

 

No, because I don't follow the EV market sufficiently closely to be able to make that prediction.

It's ToS:  The other Site.

I like it because it stops regular explicit references to another forum; not that many on here are still spending time there.

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2 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

The electricity supplier I've been changed to offers a two year fixed rate...40p kWh. Double the current variable rate. 

I don't see the current rates for off peak tariffs for EV's being retained. The price advantage you currently enjoy will diminish. 

Leccy is still mostly cheap overnight when demand dies after midnight, and can still go negative from time to time. Octopus have said their GO tariff is staying for the medium term future. an 50% rise from 5p to 7.5p i can handle, and they are 1+ year contracts not variable tariffs.  If you have not been in the EV community for a while as i have, you wont appreciate that funny enough the majority of EV owners have moved to a few cheap overnight specialist EV tariffs over the years. My "Go" day rate is jumping from 13.45p to 30.23p in April , i'm not worried , being your own furl station at home means you use FAR more leccy at night to charge cars than you do daytime during the day, and outside Winter Solar PV offsets a lot of daytime cost (and they net payback for solar installed 2019 or before is getting 50%+ quicker now too, as we suspected it would)

I do not expect the super cheap EV gravy train to last forever, but.............i do expect it to last more than long enough for the balance of EV prices new to be cheaper than ICE prices.

 

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Wight Flight
2 hours ago, markyh said:

Leccy is still mostly cheap overnight when demand dies after midnight, and can still go negative from time to time. Octopus have said their GO tariff is staying for the medium term future. an 50% rise from 5p to 7.5p i can handle, and they are 1+ year contracts not variable tariffs.  If you have not been in the EV community for a while as i have, you wont appreciate that funny enough the majority of EV owners have moved to a few cheap overnight specialist EV tariffs over the years. My "Go" day rate is jumping from 13.45p to 30.23p in April , i'm not worried , being your own furl station at home means you use FAR more leccy at night to charge cars than you do daytime during the day, and outside Winter Solar PV offsets a lot of daytime cost (and they net payback for solar installed 2019 or before is getting 50%+ quicker now too, as we suspected it would)

I do not expect the super cheap EV gravy train to last forever, but.............i do expect it to last more than long enough for the balance of EV prices new to be cheaper than ICE prices.

 

Can you be brutally honest - once this comes to fruition, what % of people that currently have a car do you expect to no longer be able to have one?

 

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Sasquatch

Forgetting about London and leafy rural well off places, I'm struggling to understand how the owners of the huge current mass of cheap ICE cars can move over to EV. I was driving around in a northern town recently (I think 100,000 population). Miles and miles of suburban terraced house streets with cars parked at the kerbside bumper to bumper. Most of these cars being minimum 10 year old fords, vauxhalls etc probably on their 5th or 6th owner having covered 100,000 miles +. There are many many people in the country chopping in a knackered car and then buying a new old one for £2K max. It's all they can afford.

I can afford a nice shiny new EV if I want to buy one (although at the moment I'm not interested). I am in a small minority though.

Of course, perhaps the big plan is to get cars off the road permanently in the name of climate change. You''ll own nothing and be happy etc etc.

I simply don't believe that a utopian green society will exist as people currently think. It's going to be a brutal transition.

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Wight Flight
5 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Forgetting about London and leafy rural well off places, I'm struggling to understand how the owners of the huge current mass of cheap ICE cars can move over to EV. I was driving around in a northern town recently (I think 100,000 population). Miles and miles of suburban terraced house streets with cars parked at the kerbside bumper to bumper. Most of these cars being minimum 10 year old fords, vauxhalls etc probably on their 5th or 6th owner having covered 100,000 miles +. There are many many people in the country chopping in a knackered car and then buying a new old one for £2K max. It's all they can afford.

That is exactly what I see here in the majority of roads.

You get five shite old cars and then a nice shiny new one, then another ten bangers and a new one.

The odd thing is that the new cars always seem to be in the spaces marked off for 'Disabled parking'.

No idea why.

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1 hour ago, Wight Flight said:

Can you be brutally honest - once this comes to fruition, what % of people that currently have a car do you expect to no longer be able to have one?

 

Because they cant afford one? No idea, despite a working class council estate background i have been what my mum calls a "well off snob" since i got my 1st company car in 1996. 

I have not struggled for money or running cars since then , and good cars are way cheaper than they used to be. My last "cheap" car before 1996 was a 1984 Cavalier SRI which had brake caliper problems and i scrapped after i got a company car. 

What does the really really low end do these days to run a car? Surely if money is that tight it's always been a luxury to have a car? 

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20 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Forgetting about London and leafy rural well off places, I'm struggling to understand how the owners of the huge current mass of cheap ICE cars can move over to EV. I was driving around in a northern town recently (I think 100,000 population). Miles and miles of suburban terraced house streets with cars parked at the kerbside bumper to bumper. Most of these cars being minimum 10 year old fords, vauxhalls etc probably on their 5th or 6th owner having covered 100,000 miles +. There are many many people in the country chopping in a knackered car and then buying a new old one for £2K max. It's all they can afford.

I can afford a nice shiny new EV if I want to buy one (although at the moment I'm not interested). I am in a small minority though.

Of course, perhaps the big plan is to get cars off the road permanently in the name of climate change. You''ll own nothing and be happy etc etc.

I simply don't believe that a utopian green society will exist as people currently think. It's going to be a brutal transition.

By 2040 when their current 2029 ICE cars start to die, will be "millions" of 15-20 year old EV's still going strong they can buy at the EV recycle price floor.  2nd hand EV's will have a price floor and their will always be big value in recycling the battereis for "other projects".  I dont ever see old EV's dropping below £3k , unless new lithium batteries can be bought for £10 kwh. 

A 2011 Peugeot Ion is still going for £4700, cheapest 2nd phase Gen 1 EV on Autotrader. The value is in the 16kwh of batteries, creates a price floor. 

An old ICE engine and gearbox is a lump of scrap metal if not working. 

 

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Wight Flight
6 minutes ago, markyh said:

Because they cant afford one? No idea, despite a working class council estate background i have been what my mum calls a "well off snob" since i got my 1st company car in 1996. 

I have not struggled for money or running cars since then , and good cars are way cheaper than they used to be. My last "cheap" car before 1996 was a 1984 Cavalier SRI which had brake caliper problems and i scrapped after i got a company car. 

What does the really really low end do these days to run a car? Surely if money is that tight it's always been a luxury to have a car? 

Well at least you are honest.

I could easily afford an EV. Bit light on the £0.5m to buy the house with a drive to park it on though. I choose not to as a hand me down 15 year old Honda Civic seems much better value.

But no, in many parts of the country a car is an essential if you want to take part in any kind of life. How do you think the care worker that will tend to your mum in her dotage will get there if she hasn't got access to a car?

You might need to think about the wider picture than just your lifestyle and Tesla share price.

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22 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

That is exactly what I see here in the majority of roads.

You get five shite old cars and then a nice shiny new one, then another ten bangers and a new one.

The odd thing is that the new cars always seem to be in the spaces marked off for 'Disabled parking'.

No idea why.

mobility grant, they aint paying for it!!

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3 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Bit light on the £0.5m to buy the house with a drive to park it on though.

Lol, i have the £600k house with with private 3 car drive, on a small private estate behind electric gates. Told you my mum call me a snob, 

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whitevanman
2 minutes ago, markyh said:

By 2040 when their current 2029 ICE cars start to die, will be "millions" of 15-20 year old EV's still going strong they can buy at the EV recycle price floor.  2nd hand EV's will have a price floor and their will always be big value in recycling the battereis for "other projects".  I dont ever see old EV's dropping below £3k , unless new lithium batteries can be bought for £10 kwh. 

A 2011 Peugeot Ion is still going for £4700, cheapest 2nd phase Gen 1 EV on Autotrader. The value is in the 16kwh of batteries, creates a price floor. 

An old ICE engine and gearbox is a lump of scrap metal if not working. 

 

If EV is so good then people will buy them. There won’t be any need for legal and financial coercion to force people to adopt the technology. Everyone will be happy.

That is very far from the current situation of massive tax imbalances, threats of bans and charges to enter cities. Government actions threaten to impoverish us all

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Wight Flight
6 minutes ago, markyh said:

Lol, i have the £600k house with with private 3 car drive, on a small private estate behind electric gates. Told you my mum call me a snob, 

You forgot to mention your BTL portfolio.

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25 minutes ago, whitevanman said:

If EV is so good then people will buy them. There won’t be any need for legal and financial coercion to force people to adopt the technology. Everyone will be happy.

That is very far from the current situation of massive tax imbalances, threats of bans and charges to enter cities. Government actions threaten to impoverish us all

The bans are about manufactures producing ICE cars, not people buying them. I will say this again, forget 2030, this year is a read herring. This is all about 2050, when the law says we must be "net zero" . 

So 2030 is all about the last new ICE cars being sold in 2029, and no doubt "millions" of pre reg 2029 ICEs be sold "nearly new " in 2030.  This will make the youngest UK ICE fleet 20 years old in 2050 and only in the thousands remaining.

Dont think this will be the case? Well go on auto trader and excluding "true classics" 40+ years old there are only 3800 cars for sale from 1980 to 2002.  All the rest are gone, worn out, scrapped, off the road. 

This will be 2029 cars and older in 2050. All the other cars will be EV's and everyone will be happy and get on with life.

 

 

 

 

 

33 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

You forgot to mention your BTL portfolio.

Not my bag, i like Crypto. My Bitcoin doesn't call me at odd hours with problems with the boiler/ toilet / fuse box. 

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whitevanman
12 minutes ago, markyh said:

The bans are about manufactures producing ICE cars, not people buying them. I will say this again, forget 2030, this year is a read herring. This is all about 2050, when the law says we must be "net zero" . 

So 2030 is all about the last new ICE cars being sold in 2029, and no doubt "millions" of pre reg 2029 ICEs be sold "nearly new " in 2030.  This will make the youngest UK ICE fleet 20 years old in 2050 and only in the thousands remaining.

Dont think this will be the case? Well go on auto trader and excluding "true classics" 40+ years old there are only 3800 cars for sale from 1980 to 2002.  All the rest are gone, worn out, scrapped, off the road. 

This will be 2029 cars and older in 2050. All the other cars will be EV's and everyone will be happy and get on with life.

It’s a ban on ICE. You are comfortable with big government top down social control. That’s fine and a valid view on the world, collectivism over the individual. 

You should know that the goal is the abolition of private transportation. They don’t want us in electric cars, they want us on public transport. You’re going to hear more and more about cities going ‘car free’, Mandating EVs is an opportunity for them to achieve that end 

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belfastchild
5 minutes ago, markyh said:

Dont think this will be the case? Well go on auto trader and excluding "true classics" 40+ years old there are only 3800 cars for sale from 1980 to 2002.  All the rest are gone, worn out, scrapped, off the road.

Ive a 2007, 2000 and 1997 on my drive. 1982 as well if you include the speedboat.

I'll be really disappointed if all three dont do at least another 10 years. First two on that list were bought new by me.

Went to trade in the 2007 last year for a new equivalent (it has trebled in price in 2 years), mate in the motor trade said I was mad and that it would outlast any new car I buy today. He and others spent the last 3 odd years buying every cheap small motor he could lay his hands on because once the pcp deals dry up... Car companies are creaming it in with lockdown, extending pcp and not having to outlay anything for it.

They suspended the MOT here for 2 years.

Have a look at howmanyleft (hint the EV stuff is frightening- who would buy a 2nd hand nissan leaf reading that).

The average age of the car on the road in the uk has been falling for years (scrappage and pcp deals) despite tales of them lasting longer. Its now starting to creep up, it does that in recessions.

Cant remember the last time I looked for anything on autotrader, most of the dealers here stick them up on gumtree/fb marketplace. 10 year old plus decent family motors dont hang around and at those prices have good margins for cash buyers.

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1 hour ago, Sasquatch said:

Forgetting about London and leafy rural well off places, I'm struggling to understand how the owners of the huge current mass of cheap ICE cars can move over to EV. I was driving around in a northern town recently (I think 100,000 population). Miles and miles of suburban terraced house streets with cars parked at the kerbside bumper to bumper. Most of these cars being minimum 10 year old fords, vauxhalls etc probably on their 5th or 6th owner having covered 100,000 miles +. There are many many people in the country chopping in a knackered car and then buying a new old one for £2K max. It's all they can afford.

I can afford a nice shiny new EV if I want to buy one (although at the moment I'm not interested). I am in a small minority though.

Of course, perhaps the big plan is to get cars off the road permanently in the name of climate change. You''ll own nothing and be happy etc etc.

I simply don't believe that a utopian green society will exist as people currently think. It's going to be a brutal transition.

https://on.to/

This is the target. Already here. 

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14 minutes ago, ccc said:

https://on.to/

This is the target. Already here. 

You may not be surprised, we leased a 71 plate Peugeot E208 GT from them for 2 months until our Tesla arrived early December. Roughly cost us £600pcm for 1750 miles per month all in. 

Was not a bad experience. They have LOTS of London based CC / ULEZ customers as all these charges. and all rapid charging, are inclusive in the price so customers in London save a fortune in daily charges every month.

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22 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

 

Have a look at howmanyleft (hint the EV stuff is frightening- who would buy a 2nd hand nissan leaf reading that).

 

I leased a Leaf mk2 40kw Tekna in 2018 , great car, did 150miles easily in summer, but i would never advise anyone buy one unless for a short trip 2nd car, then it will cost you shirt buttons to run. Very reliable. 

No thermal battery management so its like a giant mobile phone regarding battery life. 

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belfastchild
Just now, markyh said:

I leased a Leaf mk2 40kw Tekna in 2018 , great car, did 150miles easily in summer, but i would never advise anyone buy one unless for a short trip 2nd car, then it will cost you shirt buttons to run. Very reliable. 

No thermal battery management so its like a giant mobile phone regarding battery life. 

I quite like them, I know someone with two of them, one to drive and the other to charge whilst driving!
They are completely off grid though and use the batteries as storage for their solar and wind turbine.

I like the idea of the citroen ami cargo thing, if they ever put an emissions limit on going into belfast or I want to go shopping in the rain. Good business purchase and can plug it in anywhere.

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27 minutes ago, whitevanman said:

It’s a ban on ICE. You are comfortable with big government top down social control. That’s fine and a valid view on the world, collectivism over the individual. 

You should know that the goal is the abolition of private transportation. They don’t want us in electric cars, they want us on public transport. You’re going to hear more and more about cities going ‘car free’, Mandating EVs is an opportunity for them to achieve that end 

I actually think an full on ICE ban, except 40+ year old "Classics" will come, announced in 2048, for 2050 onwards. To help remove any mass of ICE / PHEV's still being kept going somehow in 2049. 

I think this is needed for climate change and 2050 is a good target.  The 2020 lockdowns proved worldwide what happens within just a few months when all the ICE are off the roads. Chinese cities saw blue sky's for the first time in decades and air quality over the planet improved. 

Covid actually help speed up the ICE sale bans as it proved what the world would be like when ICE are gone. 

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2 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

I quite like them, I know someone with two of them, one to drive and the other to charge whilst driving!
They are completely off grid though and use the batteries as storage for their solar and wind turbine.

I like the idea of the citroen ami cargo thing, if they ever put an emissions limit on going into belfast or I want to go shopping in the rain. Good business purchase and can plug it in anywhere.

Yeah Leaf mk 2 has V2G via Chamedo, so a great car for them.  

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3 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

I quite like them, I know someone with two of them, one to drive and the other to charge whilst driving!
They are completely off grid though and use the batteries as storage for their solar and wind turbine.

I like the idea of the citroen ami cargo thing, if they ever put an emissions limit on going into belfast or I want to go shopping in the rain. Good business purchase and can plug it in anywhere.

I have driven in Belfast and Ireland N/S a lot in 2004-2006 for work, surely it's a death wish in an Ami?? What is that huge crossroads outside Dublin with a hotel on one corner, that would ne scary in an Ami. 

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belfastchild
1 minute ago, markyh said:

 The 2020 lockdowns proved worldwide what happens within just a few months when all the ICE are off the roads. Chinese cities saw blue sky's for the first time in decades and air quality over the planet improved.

SO2, particulates, nox etc disappear in weeks, then no low level ozone. CO2 takes centuries.
More to do with aircraft, power stations, factories etc than cars.

 

Just now, markyh said:

I have driven in Belfast and Ireland N/S a lot in 2004-2006 for work, surely it's a death wish in an Ami?? What is that huge crossroads outside Dublin with a hotel on one corner, that would ne scary in an Ami. 

Ami would only just make it to belfast and back from here. Most of the city centre is bus lanes now anyway.

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