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Case at Christmas Poll


Libspero
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Cases by Christmas  

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It strikes me that this is the main metric (in conjunction with deaths and hospitalisations) that are driving government policy on Covid.

I believe the government are banking on cases dropping off as herd and vaccine immunity kick in..  the threat of further covid measures is a fall back in case they are wrong..   so what does the hive mind think?  Place your bets now..   will cases be higher or lower by Christmas?

1-F634-EF1-AF8-F-4155-8097-400-ACC78-DEB

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I'd guess somewhat over 100k/day (UK total).

Seems strange to say it, because surely everyone has been infected at least once by now.  But that's my guess.

I'd be very happy if it isn't.

Edited by dgul
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Syd Germs

I've just used the "Ferguson" / ICL method and extrapolated from the last few days.

By Christmas there will be minus 200,000 cases per day.

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One percent

Poll is a bit misleading do you mean:

  1. actual cases (which will be lower), or,
  2. made up bollox cases (which will be much higher)?

 

 

Edited by One percent
Crapple
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Micky Roberts

Case numbers will be whatever the government need them to be to support the narrative. 

They need to perpetrate the myth that vaccines are the only answer possibly in order to bring in vaccine passports and further controls.

To do anything else would be to admit that they have been wrong, incompetent and corrupt.

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King Penda

Covid will say hold my pint to mr flu,mr flu will say hang on they are all jabbed and immune Covid will say they never managed to stop you in the last 50 years and your not has hard has me .

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Surrounded by idiots
1 hour ago, Libspero said:

I believe the government are banking on cases dropping off as herd and vaccine immunity kick in..  the threat of further covid measures is a fall back in case they are wrong..   so what does the hive mind think?  Place your bets now..   will cases be higher or lower by Christmas?

1-F634-EF1-AF8-F-4155-8097-400-ACC78-DEB

Do I get a Brucie bonus if I play my cards right?

Edited by Surrounded by idiots
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Needs an option for "I don't give much of a shit".

Although I'd welcome an excuse not to repeat last Christmas's "family fun" o.O

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Hail the Tripod

I don’t think our Christmas plans would change much regardless on what the government decrees this year. All the people we will see are vaxxed and see no reason to worry about it anymore.

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Last Xmas I reckon students returning home were a major vector, this Autumn Children a major one and they are already at home.  That, and a 6 month ish wave pattern that tracks a regional spread from high density to low density areas I think we'll be looking a lower case count.

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A tremendous # on the lung
39 minutes ago, eight said:

She's got a massive one year's data to go off.

She is very much on the DOSBODS wavelength with all things corona 

Edited by A tremendous # on the lung
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Yadda yadda yadda
18 hours ago, dgul said:

I'd guess somewhat over 100k/day (UK total).

Seems strange to say it, because surely everyone has been infected at least once by now.  But that's my guess.

I'd be very happy if it isn't.

Hi dgul, what is your reasoning here? The UK wave pattern for infection appears to have broken.

I was vaguely expecting cases to continue falling into December but start rising from a much lower level before Christmas. My basic thought process is that the various relaxations in anti-covid measures delayed the peak and led to the exposure of more people to the virus at a point when they had low immunity.

I recall you previously talking about the wavelength being determined by the length of time it takes for a partial immune escape variant to emerge and circulate. Therefore I can see that you may argue the natural peak would have been late July or early August. This would allow for a winter peak with cases rising again soon.

In that case there would probably be a variant of concern already identified. I'm not sure if there is. The other thing I was hoping was that there is now significant and lasting immunity from infection. However, this could be useless if 'vaccines' have destroyed natural immunity as many fear. In which case this isn't going away in our lifetimes. This could also be part of your thinking, vaccinated people are always vulnerable and moreso in winter. Which would be grim.

I'm going to vote 'a bit lower' as I'd rather we weren't witnessing mass death this winter.

Interested in your reasoning.

Edited by Yadda yadda yadda
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15 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

In that case there would probably be a variant of concern already identified. I'm not sure if there is. The other thing I was hoping was that there is now significant and lasting immunity from infection. However, this could be useless if 'vaccines' have destroyed natural immunity as many fear. In which case this isn't going away in our lifetimes. This could also be part of your thinking, vaccinated people are always vulnerable and moreso in winter. Which would be grim.

I'm thinking that this is likely.

15 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I'm going to vote 'a bit lower' as I'd rather we weren't witnessing mass death this winter.

My model actually says a peak at about 150k cases per day early Jan.  I a) can't believe it and b) don't want to believe it.

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3 hours ago, A tremendous # on the lung said:

 

I can't believe that this is it for the season.

I predict >50k per day by this time next week.  We'll possibly have another dip before the main event (or possibly not).

All that said, the very high plateau in cases over the last few months has been rather odd.  I'd also like to think that it has created a herd immunity and now that's it...  but I don't think it is the case.

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52 minutes ago, dgul said:

I can't believe that this is it for the season.

I predict >50k per day by this time next week.  We'll possibly have another dip before the main event (or possibly not).

All that said, the very high plateau in cases over the last few months has been rather odd.  I'd also like to think that it has created a herd immunity and now that's it...  but I don't think it is the case.

I think more of my colleagues than not have now had it. 

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22 minutes ago, eight said:

I think more of my colleagues than not have now had it. 

 

That seems to be where things are at with the kids at school. Was chatting with one of my kids earlier and they said hardly any kids off with Covid at the moment, I wonder if we are at herd immunity in the schools as so many seemed to be off with it before half term.

I posted the below on the other thread but thought would put here as well:

"Was chatting with one of my kids earlier. They said that one of their teachers (secondary school) had just returned after having been off with Covid. Apparently the teacher said they had the booster shot but still got really ill with Covid."

 

In the poll I voted for slightly lower cases. My reasoning was that the school kids are big spreaders but we are at herd immunity within that cohort. And as most of the kids will have natural immunity rather vaccine a much better chance of getting that herd immunity.

 

However, after being told about the teacher who got covid even after a booster I wonder if it will go the way Dgul thinks it might - ripping through the vaccinated.

 

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