Where will the property bubble burst first?

[Wight Flight]

6 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

Interesting, weve never bothered with finders fee. I've only ever done fully by agent or simply done it ourselves. It's not rocket science. 

I don't ever remember paying a finders fee when fully managed but we're pretty good to our tenants keep the place well maintained and rarey raise the rent outside of re assessing it when people leave. I recon our average tenancy is 4-5 years. 

You won't pay a finder's fee on fully managed as it is all part of the monthly fee. Only due on straight tenant finding with no on going work.

Out of interest, do you warn your longer standing tenants about their stamp duty liability?

[With a crooked smile]

3 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Out of interest, do you warn your longer standing tenants about their stamp duty liability?

No its never come up. The monthly rent is currently £1300. Takes a long time to get to the 125k threshold so I don't think it will really be an issue. My understanding is you can legally 'unlink' by doing a new tenancy agreement with slight different terms to avoid hitting the threshold if you need to. 

[Wight Flight]

Just now, With a crooked smile said:

No its never come up. The monthly rent is currently £1300. Takes a long time to get to the 125k threshold so I don't think it will really be an issue. My understanding is you can legally 'unlink' by doing a new tenancy agreement with slight different terms to avoid hitting the threshold if you need to. 

Indeed you can.

I am very impressed that you knew this. One of the most obscure and daft tax laws in existence.

[With a crooked smile]

4 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Indeed you can.

I am very impressed that you knew this. One of the most obscure and daft tax laws in existence.

Although I do software sales I work purely with public sector (which where I am includes Housing Associations and charities). To sell well you it really helps to know your clients business. I enjoy working with housing associations and spend a fair bit of time talking to them at all levels from the receptionist to CCO. 

[BurntBread]

13 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

Out of interest, do you warn your longer standing tenants about their stamp duty liability?

That's a curious comment, Mr Flight; could you elaborate?

[With a crooked smile]

21 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

That's a curious comment, Mr Flight; could you elaborate?

I know this sounds weird but once as a tenant you've paid your landlord 125k in rent you should pay a surcharge of I think 1% of all future rent to hmrc. I doubt many do. It would be really hard to track. I imagine it is only really relevant to very high value rentals in London or big country pads. 

It's fairly easily avoided by signing a new tenancy agreement before hitting 125k with slightly different conditions. It's then considered reset and you work again towards the 125k.

Really I imagine only people renting mansions where 125k is hit regularly and quickly that would be affected. 

[With a crooked smile]

There's a bit more info here for anyone interested

https://www.chancellors.co.uk/resource-centre/useful-information-for-tenants/stamp-duty-land-tax-for-tenants

 

And some advice on the reset thing here

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/money/2020/oct/05/as-a-tenant-when-am-i-liable-for-stamp-duty

[Wight Flight]

7 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

I know this sounds weird but once as a tenant you've paid your landlord 125k in rent you should pay a surcharge of I think 1% of all future rent to hmrc. I doubt many do. It would be really hard to track. I imagine it is only really relevant to very high value rentals in London or big country pads. 

It's fairly easily avoided by signing a new tenancy agreement before hitting 125k with slightly different conditions. It's then considered reset and you work again towards the 125k.

Really I imagine only people renting mansions where 125k is hit regularly and quickly that would be affected. 

Spot on.

I fell in to the trap of a three year and then five year extension lease at £3,250 a month which triggered the tax liability.

This was a nice, but not extraordinary, house in Surrey.

[With a crooked smile]

5 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

at £3,250 a month

bloody hell over 35k on rent! I think I'd buy a motorhome. 

[Bobthebuilder]

6 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

bloody hell over 35k on rent! I think I'd buy a motorhome. 

I would just stay in a hotel.

[CVG]

9 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

This was a nice, but not extraordinary, house in Surrey.

Ah.This must be this Wight privilege that I keep reading about.

[HousePriceMania]

Looks like we have a winner....U.S.A, house prices have apparently fallen 10% in one Month 
 

 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Looks like we have a winner....U.S.A, house prices have apparently fallen 10% in one Month 
 

 

Good where the US goes we follow.

[HousePriceMania]

Just now, Hancock said:

Good where the US goes we follow.

If the US gets a cold, we get cancer.

[Frank Hovis]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Good where the US goes we follow.

 

Their house prices are always less "sticky" than here and as quick to dip as to rise.

I suspect it's that the thirty year fixed rate mortgages they have over there serve to exaggerate actual.or prospective interest rate rises.

[Axeman123]

37 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Their house prices are always less "sticky" than here and as quick to dip as to rise.

I suspect non-recourse mortgages in some states* also play a role. California  being the big one.

*Alaska, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Idaho, Minnesota, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, Texas (sort of), Utah, Washington. (Just in case you were wondering)

[With a crooked smile]

In other new US median listing price of a home was up 11.7% in the week ending Jan. 22, according to Realtor.com and U.S. home buyers continue to snap up properties at a record pace, with 45% of homes selling within two weeks on the market, according to a report Thursday from Redfin. 

Of course TheCount won't report this as he has his own vested interests to use his parlance. 

[Bobthebuilder]

This place came up on my search today. Looks nice from the outside, grade 2 listed, but something going on that I have not seen since the early 1990s. Some fucker has ripped all the interior period items out, fire places, mantles, even the central heating radiators, pipework and boiler. It's listed as having a kitchen but no picture, probably because it's in a salvage yard somewhere. Bargain......

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/119356340#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

 

[headrow]

I bought a flat in Oct 2010 for £107,000 , sold it last week for £210,000. Get that in the stock market during the next downturn and it should just about fund my ISA each year.

Daughter lived in it rent free while at Uni , then rented it out .

[HousePriceMania]

"Where will the property bubble burst first?"

Not Britain....Nationwide are saying they've had the best year ever ( 2021 ) and house prices have accelerated to 11.2% yoy increases.

They say they'll raise savings rates next month from 0.1% to 0.2% with inflation at 7.5%

This was after house prices were predicted to fall circa 20% in 2020.

This is not a bubble.

 

[spunko]

Just put the price up innit.

 

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, spunko said:

Just put the price up innit.

 

And why not...the bankers will lend you vast sums of money to hand to the seller and to collect their bonuses on
 

 

Someone's scared about prices falling I reckon.

[spygirl]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

"Where will the property bubble burst first?"

Not Britain....Nationwide are saying they've had the best year ever ( 2021 ) and house prices have accelerated to 11.2% yoy increases.

They say they'll raise savings rates next month from 0.1% to 0.2% with inflation at 7.5%

This was after house prices were predicted to fall circa 20% in 2020.

This is not a bubble.

 

This is NW twisting very dodgy numbers due to v low transactions.

NW are digging themselves into a deeper hole.

Now, thanks to NW, most of the people with propety listed will bump up their prices, hammering a crashing market even more.

Id be very surprised if NW are still operating in 10 years time.

They are not competitive on mortgages - you go to HSBC for that.

 

 

[Boon]

Would anyone buying a flat post-HTB (ie 2015) be getting 100% gains in the 10 years to 2025? 

That's the thing, the easy money has gone, and the people that have gained off it don't really want to think about why, it is easier to think it is some kind of skill.

Been saying for a while that of course the mortgage companies will be seeing rises with a richer mix of properties. Much like how the average wage went up during the pandemic by virtue of lower wage jobs much likely to be canned.

Whilst supply remains thin, the veneer of gains can be maintained, but I do feel it is like a house of cards.

Example popped up which I think will become very common over London in the next few years.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/119377337#/?channel=RES_BUY

These people have set the asking price there because of what they paid for it (see market information). But it clearly isn't going to go for that. Firstly because the ex-new build 2-bed/2-bath is coming down to around this price, secondly the last sale for something similar was April 2021 at £307,500.

Someone buying it at even close to the asking price is going to run into valuation problems, so will either need to pony up the rest themselves. 

Once the people with more money than sense have run out, more sales will be closing at lower levels, thus enforcing lower valuations.

[spygirl]

What does this even mean? - 

House prices have risen at the fastest annual pace for a January in 17 years, amid "robust" demand and low supply, according to lender Nationwide.

-> Thats asking prices FFS.

 

The building society said prices rose by 11.2% year-on-year and by 0.8% between December and January.

However, the Nationwide predicted the market would slow this year as buying property becomes less affordable.

It added that with interest rates expected to rise in the coming months affordability would be further hit.

Nationwide's chief economist, Robert Gardner said housing demand had remained "robust".

 

->Demand sure. Demand to shag Sophie Ellis Bextor remains high. However people actually shagging her remain v v low.

 

"Mortgage approvals for house purchase have continued to run slightly above pre-pandemic levels, despite the surge in activity in 2021 as a result of the stamp duty holiday, which encouraged buyers to bring forward their transactions to avoid additional tax.

-> Pre=pandemic, mortgage approvals were touching multi decade lows.

"Indeed, the total number of property transactions in 2021 was the highest since 2007 and around 25% higher than in 2019, before the pandemic struck.

->Woohoo! transaction highest since 2007. Just got to keep reducing SD ...

 

"At the same time, the stock of homes on estate agents' books has remained extremely low, which is contributing to the continued robust pace of house price growth."

So the housing market is great - apart the actual selling bit, which is shit?