Where will the property bubble burst first?

[HousePriceMania]

 

[spygirl]

21 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Probanly more boomers dying every day.  I';d imagine that's the real reason for the immigration.

You may jest but probates are the thing driving sales in a lot of towns.

Its always been part of the holy housing sale trinity - death divorce debt

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

34 minutes ago, spygirl said:

You may jest but probates are the thing driving sales in a lot of towns.

Its always been part of the holy housing sale trinity - death divorce debt

 

 

I wasn't jesting.  We have an aging population.

Anyway, here's the insanity of the UK housing bubble

[Ash4781b]

11 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

I wasn't jesting.  We have an aging population.

Anyway, here's the insanity of the UK housing bubble

Don’t ask for a pay rise though!

[HousePriceMania]

Back to my original answer.....Scotland

Propert Lion index is out and it looks like Scotland is nearly down 10% from peak and below OCt 2019 prices and all this with practically nothing for sale.
 

I cant be bother posting everything twice, so the index on twitter or TOS

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/243256-property-lion-feb-2022/

[spygirl]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

Back to my original answer.....Scotland

Propert Lion index is out and it looks like Scotland is nearly down 10% from peak and below OCt 2019 prices and all this with practically nothing for sale.
 

I cant be bother posting everything twice, so the index on twitter or TOS

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/243256-property-lion-feb-2022/

The hangover from the SD party was always going to be bad.

Its arriving a the same time as higher rates and higher costs.

And to throw petrol on the fire - 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/883419/Help_To_Buy_Equity_Loan_Statistical_Release_2019_Q4.pdf

HTB v2, the nut one, 2013-2019, will be see all those equity loans dumped.

 

[sarahbell]

The house for sale (sauna but no kitchen) on my street has gone SSTC today.

The last 3 times have failed. Because mortgage companies don't like lending on properties with a kitchen sink not really plumbed in. 

And the issue over lease running out won't have been resolved either. 

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, sarahbell said:

The house for sale (sauna but no kitchen) on my street has gone SSTC today.

The last 3 times have failed. Because mortgage companies don't like lending on properties with a kitchen sink not really plumbed in. 

And the issue over lease running out won't have been resolved either. 

If a house has no kitchen or bathroom, then you cannot raise a mortgage on it, as far as I know.

A neighbour of mine had to stick a small kitchen in his house during building works to be able to re mortgage.

[HousePriceMania]

How do you kill a zombie, raise IRs.

 

 

Ground Zero might be Halifax

[spygirl]

On 09/02/2022 at 10:05, HousePriceMania said:

How do you kill a zombie, raise IRs.

 

 

Ground Zero might be Halifax

Dont under estimate how much work the Norther BS created in n around that area.

The Golden triangle got its money by doing legal services fro the likes of Halifax, BnB, etc.

Dont underestimate how many jobs have gone.

Dont underestimate how much that area is propped up on low IRs and high benefits.

Its got a long long way to fall.

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Dont under estimate how much work the Norther BS created in n around that area.

The Golden triangle got its money by doing legal services fro the likes of Halifax, BnB, etc.

Dont underestimate how many jobs have gone.

Dont underestimate how much that area is propped up on low IRs and high benefits.

Its got a long long way to fall.

Had a friend who bought a flat in Paisley (Scotland) in 2007.

Cant remember if it was a 1 or 2 bed, but they paid £110K for it and they said ever since it's like a weight round their neck

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/119351900#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/119783210#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/116686979#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/82879350#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

[spygirl]

23 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Had a friend who bought a flat in Paisley (Scotland) in 2007.

Cant remember if it was a 1 or 2 bed, but they paid £110K for it and they said ever since it's like a weight round their neck

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/119351900#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/119783210#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/116686979#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/82879350#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

Mother going on about sister lookig to move to Loftus ... god value ...

Picked thjs one, just for dramatic value. However others are similar - 

 

Address:	31 Tees Street, Loftus, Saltburn-By-The-Sea, TS13 4LW
Type:	Terrace
Tenure:	Freehold
New build:	No
Links:	Price map  (Saltburn-By-The-Sea)
Transaction type:	Standard price paid transaction

Registered sales:

Date Sold	Price Paid	Nominal change	Real change
08 Nov 2021	£42,000	-40.0%	-59.2%
23 Apr 2008	£70,000	23.9%	11.5%
22 Aug 2005	£56,500	n/a	n/a

Possibly selling for less than they were selling 20 years ago.

[HousePriceMania]

49 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Mother going on about sister lookig to move to Loftus ... god value ...

Picked thjs one, just for dramatic value. However others are similar - 

 

Address:	31 Tees Street, Loftus, Saltburn-By-The-Sea, TS13 4LW
Type:	Terrace
Tenure:	Freehold
New build:	No
Links:	Price map  (Saltburn-By-The-Sea)
Transaction type:	Standard price paid transaction

Registered sales:

Date Sold	Price Paid	Nominal change	Real change
08 Nov 2021	£42,000	-40.0%	-59.2%
23 Apr 2008	£70,000	23.9%	11.5%
22 Aug 2005	£56,500	n/a	n/a

Possibly selling for less than they were selling 20 years ago.

You can see why the tories want to "level" up the north now.

[spunko]

This property underlines exactly why I'd never buy a house from PurpleBricks or Strike or any of those "DIY" agents.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/118622822#/?channel=RES_BUY

It seems to be infested with greedy boomers thinking their £750k bungalow is "worth" £2m+. And they can't even be bothered to fix the rotation on the photos.

One good thing about PurpleBricks is that if the customer is especially tight they will receive direct communications from customers via Rightmove, rather than route the feedback through a Purple Bricks agent. In other words, sending a rather childish message calling them "entitled, greedy boomer cunts" will probably reach the owner's inbox.

Not that I would do such a thing...

[spunko]

[tank]

 

On 10/02/2022 at 21:39, HousePriceMania said:

Had a friend who bought a flat in Paisley (Scotland) in 2007.

Cant remember if it was a 1 or 2 bed, but they paid £110K for it and they said ever since it's like a weight round their neck

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/119351900#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/119783210#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/116686979#/?channel=RES_BUY

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/82879350#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

You've gone and selected some of the worst, baghead central, rental stock in the West of Scotland and Spy has jumped straight in with an extreme example of his own from the NE.

Typical Dosbods HPCers. 😃

Even a shithole like Paisley will have some decent, modern stock going. 

Like this for ~£70K. 1 bed, modern block, with private parking, near the NHS hospital. 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/119405999#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

 

[With a crooked smile]

1 hour ago, tank said:

You've gone and selected some of the worst, baghead central, rental stock in the West of Scotland and Spy has jumped straight in with an extreme example of his own from the NE.

Always the way with TheCountOfNowhere 

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, tank said:

 

You've gone and selected some of the worst, baghead central, rental stock in the West of Scotland and Spy has jumped straight in with an extreme example of his own from the NE.

Typical Dosbods HPCers. 😃

Even a shithole like Paisley will have some decent, modern stock going. 

Like this for ~£70K. 1 bed, modern block, with private parking, near the NHS hospital. 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/119405999#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

 

Wooh there.

If I wanted to do an extreme example Id have posted some sales data from inner boro or old mining towns, way away away from anything but other shitholes towns.

Loftus is a OK town, suffering from an import of scummers being rehoused. Its only an easy 15miles north from Whitby -

https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/whitby-estate-agent-says-ratio-23015114

An easy tootle by car or the X4 bus - 15min by bus to Runswick, 25min to Sandsend,

When the money/transaction/ales/demand goes then its over.

Loftus, Halifax etc are not some outliers, they are the future for a lot of towns esp. ones in the South.

The jobs have gone and the jobs left pay a lot less.

The only things holding up prices in a lot of places are the total lack of sales and low IRs.

Normalise IRs and the market ill be forced to find its clearance level.

[One percent]

On 10/02/2022 at 11:04, spygirl said:

Mother going on about sister lookig to move to Loftus ... god value ...

Picked thjs one, just for dramatic value. However others are similar - 

 

Address:	31 Tees Street, Loftus, Saltburn-By-The-Sea, TS13 4LW
Type:	Terrace
Tenure:	Freehold
New build:	No
Links:	Price map  (Saltburn-By-The-Sea)
Transaction type:	Standard price paid transaction

Registered sales:

Date Sold	Price Paid	Nominal change	Real change
08 Nov 2021	£42,000	-40.0%	-59.2%
23 Apr 2008	£70,000	23.9%	11.5%
22 Aug 2005	£56,500	n/a	n/a

Possibly selling for less than they were selling 20 years ago.

You better get her house scroat proofed for her moving in present. Why does she want to move there?  I guess it’s better than Boosbeck but still. 

[spygirl]

11 minutes ago, One percent said:

You better get her house scroat proofed for her moving in present. Why does she want to move there?  I guess it’s better than Boosbeck but still. 

Luftus will be easily fixed by kicking out the EEers from central boro and moving the scummers back.

Its the only cretinous decision of Labour setting LHA rates to mid rental i.e. LHA/rents going up together, so previous ice.OK towns - Guissy, Loftus, etc were flooded with scum.

Gidiot fixed that by moving LHA to the bottom 30% of rents , then bringing in 2 child limit.

Again, if  I wanted to pick baghead area then Id use place where stuff is under 20k.

 

[tank]

46 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Wooh there.

If I wanted to do an extreme example Id have posted some sales data from inner boro or old mining towns, way away away from anything but other shitholes towns.

Loftus is a OK town, suffering from an import of scummers being rehoused. Its only an easy 15miles north from Whitby -

https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/whitby-estate-agent-says-ratio-23015114

An easy tootle by car or the X4 bus - 15min by bus to Runswick, 25min to Sandsend,

When the money/transaction/ales/demand goes then its over.

Loftus, Halifax etc are not some outliers, they are the future for a lot of towns esp. ones in the South.

The jobs have gone and the jobs left pay a lot less.

The only things holding up prices in a lot of places are the total lack of sales and low IRs.

Normalise IRs and the market ill be forced to find its clearance level.

Putting aside the dubious merits of comparing Halifax with Reading, I don't think IRs are ever going to be 'normalised' as that would destroy the UK economy. Same goes for your other favourite topic, the bennies. The housing market, debt, the public sector and welfare are the UK economy, even in the supposedly productive South East. Most of London is a third world benefit sink. 

The new normal is what we've had since the GFC. Low IRs and the state propping up the economy via employment creation schemes like the NHS and bennies out the arse to irresponsible bints banging out sprogs. Inflation will be largely ignored because they need it to magic away these covid debts. 

There'll be another 'crisis' along soon enough and the BoE printers will be whizzing again. 

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, tank said:

Putting aside the dubious merits of comparing Halifax with Reading, I don't think IRs are ever going to be 'normalised' as that would destroy the UK economy. Same goes for your other favourite topic, the bennies. The housing market, debt, the public sector and welfare are the UK economy, even in the supposedly productive South East. Most of London is a third world benefit sink. 

The new normal is what we've had since the GFC. Low IRs and the state propping up the economy via employment creation schemes like the NHS and bennies out the arse to irresponsible bints banging out sprogs. Inflation will be largely ignored because they need it to magic away these covid debts. 

There'll be another 'crisis' along soon enough and the BoE printers will be whizzing again. 

Its a credit cycle; normalising to base rates of ~5%-8% is built in.

 

Halifax is a far nicer town than Reading, which is a dump.

 

[Hancock]

14 hours ago, spygirl said:

Its a credit cycle; normalising to base rates of ~5%-8% is built in.

Now i think there will be interest rates rises , but imho there is next to no chance they'll be at 5% within the next couple of years.

Would love to be proved wrong.

Agree with your point about Reading being a shithole, worked there about 2 decades ago and got talking to some old boy in a pub, he said it used to be a lovely place, but with all the immigration its a cesspit.

[spygirl]

7 hours ago, Hancock said:

Now i think there will be interest rates rises , but imho there is next to no chance they'll be at 5% within the next couple of years.

Would love to be proved wrong.

Agree with your point about Reading being a shithole, worked there about 2 decades ago and got talking to some old boy in a pub, he said it used to be a lovely place, but with all the immigration its a cesspit.

Banks lend money against plant, plant gets worn down ,then needs replacing.

Banks lend money for holidays, cars etc, whatever, whatever gets used ,worn out, crashed, pissed up wall.

Banks lend money against housing, mortgage is paid off.

Then it all starts again.

Inflation is at a 40 year. Highest IR in the last 40 years was ~15%.

The low inflation of the last 20 year was nothing more than China - now the worlds 1st/2nd economy - joining the world economy, bringing in ~1bln people to export.

Prices are now rising as there rest of the world is trying to decouple form  China no longer being cheap and bringing price pressure - the high gas prices is Asian demand.

Couple that with trying to shift from a carbon economy, Thats a massive capital spend as you need to role out a whole new energy infrastructure.

And if that wasnt enough, then youve got ~30%-50% of UK workers basically not engaged with any form of work - bennies, public sector, just at the time that the number of pensioners start to rise, keeping demand but no labour demand.

In terms of rates, mortgage SVR are already 3.5% at BoE base of 0.5%.

BoE rate are going to hit 2% end of this year. I dont see the spread reducing, so SVR of ~5%

 

 

[Boon]

TBH I can only see 2%, or one years of interest rate rises being it.

Inflation after some time will normalise because it has high comparatives to come against. Most of the population are brainwashed with the 'transitory' word which almost implies things return to normal, but they don't. The £5 pint which went to £7, is not going back to £5 and will always be at least £7.

That fat fuck Bailey I think gave a hint to the future, make inflation the enemy and government persuades people not to have wage rises in order to prevent a spiral.

But of course, with real inflation still being higher people have basically been persuaded to become poorer, while the rich get richer.

2% interest rates I think isn't enough to produce an overall price drop. I think at this price a lot of Southern places could drop in both nominal and real terms by 10%+, but politically this will be fine as nobody will have much sympathy and London is mainly Labour anyway. But for Northern places, they are still cheap.

The house price indexes will love it, as a lot of Southern places have a mexican stand-off with people unable to sell for below certain values, more Northern places (which have the gains) being sold and thus influencing the stats.

Ticks a lot of boxes on what they are saying.

Levelling up? Yes, because house prices could be used as a proxy that the north is growing and the south is not, thus the 'prosperity' is being shared.
Good job overall? House prices overall would still be increasing, thus pleasing most of the crowd. Those that will be unhappy may be disproportionately Labour voters and might want to switch.