Jump to content
DOSBODS

  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Where will the property bubble burst first?

spunko

By spunko
in Property Prices & Economy

Recommended Posts

Plan-b

Plan-b

Posted
Posted

I think the UK housing market has become largely financialised as an investment as much as it is a place to live, meaning houses are bought and considered to be an investment.

Therefore housing can be subject to typical investor mania where nearly everyone believes its the right place to put most/all of your wealth, so the time honoured concept of asset price corrections where the majority are all-in financially we then get a crash, it may take time but a crash there will be.

There's nothing new under the sun, in history this has played out many times before and I think it will again - who knows when and by how much.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 322
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Frank Hovis

Frank Hovis

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Plan-b said:

I think the UK housing market has become largely financialised as an investment as much as it is a place to live, meaning houses are bought and considered to be an investment.

Therefore housing can be subject to typical investor mania where nearly everyone believes its the right place to put most/all of your wealth, so the time honoured concept of asset price corrections where the majority are all-in financially we then get a crash, it may take time but a crash there will be.

There's nothing new under the sun, in history this has played out many times before and I think it will again - who knows when and by how much.

 

Yes; though a way into having a basis for that valuation, rather than just "the market value", is to look at what the house would command in rent.

The actual "value" of my house is a tax free inflating income stream of c. £20k a year which is what I would otherwise be paying in rent for this same house.

What that makes the house worth then requires determining what constitutes a reasonable rate of return on a property investment.

  • If it's 2% then my house is worth £1m.
  • If 4% then £500k.
  • If 8% then £250k.

A good marker in my opinion is the Nationwide standard mortgage rate which is currently 4% (well 3.99% but they're not fooling anyone there) with BoE Base Rate at 0.5%.

Theoretically this makes my house worth £500k.

If rates went up to 2% by the end of the year, per a story today, then the SMR would be 5.5% and my house worth £364k.  This would lose me a theoretical £136k this year or 27% down.

 

https://www.nationwide.co.uk/mortgages/existing-mortgage-members/standard-and-base-mortgage-rates

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
AlfredTheLittle

AlfredTheLittle

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, hapax legomenon said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/119870630#/?channel=RES_BUY

350,000. Nice

image.thumb.png.5df610e38cb828a2b4ea8c6f7b62d98e.png

Fucking hell. Someone paid £248k for it in 2014. Also, that's no. 59A, someone paid £385,000 for no. 63 in 2017, I wouldn't want to be anywhere near that thing, you'd have to pay me to live there. 

House looks nice otherwise though!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
reformed nice guy

reformed nice guy

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Phil said:

Economy 7 - 24/7 ? Ffs. That needs spiking. 4” galvo and welders gloves and mask. Save a fortune and pay for itself. 

he just needs to tap in straight to his board

Moar power! : r/WTF

Link to comment
Share on other sites
HousePriceMania

HousePriceMania

Posted
Posted
On 12/02/2022 at 06:10, tank said:

 

You've gone and selected some of the worst, baghead central, rental stock in the West of Scotland and Spy has jumped straight in with an extreme example of his own from the NE.

Typical Dosbods HPCers. 😃

Even a shithole like Paisley will have some decent, modern stock going. 

Like this for ~£70K. 1 bed, modern block, with private parking, near the NHS hospital. 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/119405999#/?channel=RES_BUY

 

 

I've gone and selected the flats that were like the one my friend bought for £50K more some 15 years ago in the same area.

Can't lose on pwopatee...in some peoples minds though.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
With a crooked smile

With a crooked smile

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

I've gone and selected the flats that were like the one my friend bought for £50K more some 15 years ago in the same area.

Can't lose on pwopatee...in some peoples minds though.

 

From what I can see from the flats you posted if you bought and held until now you did alright. 

Certainly better than selling up and renting over that time period. 

Screenshot_20220214_194551_com.android.chrome.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Royston

Royston

Posted
Posted

Quite remarkable... as recently as 1996 there were only approximately 800 people living in Manchester City centre, by 2025 there's predicted to be 100,000!

They're the kind of dramatic change in population figures you normally only associate with major historical societal events such as the industrial revolution or the Highland clearances. 

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/gallery/rarely-seen-pictures-fascinating-houses-23020395

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Still dancing with sheeple

Still dancing with sheeple

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Royston said:

Quite remarkable... as recently as 1996 there were only approximately 800 people living in Manchester City centre, by 2025 there's predicted to be 100,000!

They're the kind of dramatic change in population figures you normally only associate with major historical societal events such as the industrial revolution or the Highland clearances. 

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/gallery/rarely-seen-pictures-fascinating-houses-23020395

 

That just doesn`t sound right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
reformed nice guy

reformed nice guy

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Royston said:

major historical societal events such as the industrial revolution or the Highland clearances.

but it is - its the revolution of industrial level movements of people combined with the Higland clearances of the Pakistani foothills and similar locales

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bobthebuilder

Bobthebuilder

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Still dancing with sheeple said:

That just doesn`t sound right.

I've been in nightclubs in central Manc, with more people than that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Royston

Royston

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Still dancing with sheeple said:

That just doesn`t sound right.

I can believe it.

I remember Manchester City centre in the 90's and there were none of the new build apartments or Mill conversions that you see now, there wasn't even that many pubs, clubs and bars, much smaller nearby towns such as Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalyvegas probably had more of a vibrant nightlife.

Manchester City centre was just somewhere you went to shop or work.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
GTM

GTM

Posted
Posted
On 13/02/2022 at 19:52, hapax legomenon said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/119870630#/?channel=RES_BUY

350,000. Nice

image.thumb.png.5df610e38cb828a2b4ea8c6f7b62d98e.png

It's worth looking at the map to see how quiet and peaceful it is otherwise.

Will the motorway noise drown out the the buzzes and crackling of the HV lines? I think it probably will do today. The M27 around there was particularly noisy this morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
hapax legomenon

hapax legomenon

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, GTM said:

It's worth looking at the map to see how quiet and peaceful it is otherwise.

Will the motorway noise drown out the the buzzes and crackling of the HV lines? I think it probably will do today. The M27 around there was particularly noisy this morning.

Yes, backing right onto the golf course. There may be some income from 'hosting' the pylon on your land but I don't think I could live there, just the stories going round about pylons and cancer would put me right off.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Boon

Boon

Posted
Posted

Looks optimistic - basically whoever buys it has to knock it down and start again, no doubt it will be a horror inside as they gave no internal shots.

It very much looks like someone bought it, started to clear the site but then abandoned the work because it is likely that nobody would end up coughing up the final asking price.

Better to take a £50k loss now rather to borrow even more money to make a high-end house and then lose even more money.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
HousePriceMania

HousePriceMania

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Hancock said:

£290k to be the poshest pikey in Ringwood.

The fuckers tried it on at £325k:CryBaby:

If this isnt the most insane bubble ever then we are fucked.

image.png.410bb34f73a30033c802b09cdb685381.png

 

It is the most insane bubble ever AND we are fucked.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...