Where will the property bubble burst first?

[HousePriceMania]

33 minutes ago, spygirl said:

This is NW twisting very dodgy numbers due to v low transactions.

NW are digging themselves into a deeper hole.

Now, thanks to NW, most of the people with propety listed will bump up their prices, hammering a crashing market even more.

Id be very surprised if NW are still operating in 10 years time.

They are not competitive on mortgages - you go to HSBC for that.

 

 

I dare say you are right based on Purple Bricks statement, Property Lion numbers, some other info I have from the chaps in france who did some scraping of UK property portals

How long can they keep this sham going though, are they just lying to people now !!!

Are they just trying to get it into peak sales season and hope the 10% wage rises will keep it going ?

They are just ****ing robbing people now. 

I guess this is what happens when you bail out banks.  I will never forgive the people who did this.

 

[HousePriceMania]

32 minutes ago, Boon said:

Would anyone buying a flat post-HTB (ie 2015) be getting 100% gains in the 10 years to 2025? 

 

Yes, in London.

Who the **** is daft enough to buy a flat in London right now.

[HousePriceMania]

 

 

 

[reformed nice guy]

Average UK born couple have 1.5 children and its been that way for decades.

We are getting close....

[HousePriceMania]

3 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

Average UK born couple have 1.5 children and its been that way for decades.

We are getting close....

....to what ?

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

....to what ?

Supply demand mismatch.

Each generation funnels wealth. A grandmother has 8 siblings, she has 3 children, the next generation have 1.

Inheritances and family wealth gets funnelled down to a single recipient causing upwards pressure to housing prices. Increased life expectancy has pushed the receiving age further.

After that pinnacle splurge, there is less upwards pricing pressure. The migrants tend to have larger families so less wealth concentration to a single child, selling the parents/ancestral tin shack in Bulokistan doesnt give much to pass on etc

Now that that average life expectancy in the UK is 87.2 for a woman and 84.3 for a man* then that inheritance is happening very late in life such as 65 years old if combined with the stat in the image that the age of the boomers first child is 22.

Average age of first time buyers is 32** which matches up well again with the figures: 87y grannies inheritance passed to -> 65y parent books cruises then throws crumbs to -> 32y current buyer -> takes on tons of debt

I think its one of the big structural causes over the long term

 

* https://www.reassured.co.uk/life-expectancy-in-the-uk/

** https://www.idealhome.co.uk/news/average-age-of-first-time-buyers-uk-300275

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

Supply demand mismatch.

Each generation funnels wealth. A grandmother has 8 siblings, she has 3 children, the next generation have 1.

Inheritances and family wealth gets funnelled down to a single recipient causing upwards pressure to housing prices. Increased life expectancy has pushed the receiving age further.

After that pinnacle splurge, there is less upwards pricing pressure. The migrants tend to have larger families so less wealth concentration to a single child, selling the parents/ancestral tin shack in Bulokistan doesnt give much to pass on etc

Now that that average life expectancy in the UK is 87.2 for a woman and 84.3 for a man* then that inheritance is happening very late in life such as 65 years old if combined with the stat in the image that the age of the boomers first child is 22.

Average age of first time buyers is 32** which matches up well again with the figures: 87y grannies inheritance passed to -> 65y parent books cruises then throws crumbs to -> 32y current buyer -> takes on tons of debt

I think its one of the big structural causes over the long term

 

* https://www.reassured.co.uk/life-expectancy-in-the-uk/

** https://www.idealhome.co.uk/news/average-age-of-first-time-buyers-uk-300275

Dont forget the 5 Million HKers, 3 million muzzers and 50 million Indians the "British" establishment intend to let in the UK.  There's your demand right there

[reformed nice guy]

37 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Dont forget the 5 Million HKers, 3 million muzzers and 50 million Indians the "British" establishment intend to let in the UK.  There's your demand right there

How many can afford a 900k 4 bed in a leafy part of the UK?

From the population funnel I mentioned before (grandparents -> parents -> single child of current gen), that third generation needs 1 home but their 2 sets of grandparents have 2 homes.

To make up the deficit we would need to import at least 25% each generation just to maintain numbers then provide that new imported population with enough money to match the average inheritance of a native.

 

[With a crooked smile]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

How many can afford a 900k 4 bed in a leafy part of the UK?

Not many but that's not the point. As many have pointed out on here and historically TOS many of the immigrants will qualify for housing benefit which takes from tax payers and goes to landlord underpinning house prices in general. 

That said the HKs will probably work their arses off and not need HB. 

[HousePriceMania]

12 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

How many can afford a 900k 4 bed in a leafy part of the UK?

From the population funnel I mentioned before (grandparents -> parents -> single child of current gen), that third generation needs 1 home but their 2 sets of grandparents have 2 homes.

To make up the deficit we would need to import at least 25% each generation just to maintain numbers then provide that new imported population with enough money to match the average inheritance of a native.

 

Granted, but these people coming are to prop up the bottom, not buy into the middle.

The establishment know what they are doing I think

[sancho panza]

22 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

Not many but that's not the point. As many have pointed out on here and historically TOS many of the immigrants will qualify for housing benefit which takes from tax payers and goes to landlord underpinning house prices in general. 

That said the HKs will probably work their arses off and not need HB. 

The supply of money for HB isn't limitless.

There are structural issues with demand eg less FTBers,BTLers took over FTBers in terms of marginal demand but the following from LE2 shows the nature of the problem in that liquidity has all but dried up at the bottom of the market,whislt the semi/detached market is liquid as ever with limited supply.

I have no bets on this market,but it's interesting to watch.LE2 has circa 40,000 houses,prob 30% terraces,50% semi's,10% flats and 10% detached at a guess.

Currently there are 112 flats for sale,63 terraces,60 semis,67

Traditionally,there used to be 600 plus for sale.ANd itneresting to see volume back in 2002 to 2007 way higher than now

[spygirl]

On 01/02/2022 at 19:55, HousePriceMania said:

Dont forget the 5 Million HKers, 3 million muzzers and 50 million Indians the "British" establishment intend to let in the UK.  There's your demand right there

The HKers that can move here isnt high.

And most if those will have eyes on Oz or US or Singapore.

UK is too high tax.

[spygirl]

On 01/02/2022 at 22:24, With a crooked smile said:

Not many but that's not the point. As many have pointed out on here and historically TOS many of the immigrants will qualify for housing benefit which takes from tax payers and goes to landlord underpinning house prices in general. 

That said the HKs will probably work their arses off and not need HB. 

No they wont.

HB n bennies was only available to EUers as part of being in EU.

Migrants from outside of EU normally had no recourse to benefits. I think they are given a special NI code.

 

[Axeman123]

18 minutes ago, spygirl said:

The HKers that can move here isnt high.

Additionally, most of the ones with money already outside China/HK will probably already own vacant prime central London property. 

[With a crooked smile]

5 hours ago, spygirl said:

No they wont.

HB n bennies was only available to EUers as part of being in EU.

Migrants from outside of EU normally had no recourse to benefits. I think they are given a special NI code.

 

Nobody gets kicked out the country they all get right to remain in the end at which point HB kicks in. 

[spygirl]

3 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

Nobody gets kicked out the country they all get right to remain in the end at which point HB kicks in. 

No they dont.

 

[With a crooked smile]

5 minutes ago, spygirl said:

No they dont.

 

From the. Gov  website 

Apply for benefits
Now that you have leave to remain in the UK you can get the same type of support as British citizens. This includes money from the government called benefits. A benefit is money for people who need help because they have a low income.

I'll leave you to spend the day googling some sort of reponse from the back seat of the bus. 

[spygirl]

5 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

From the. Gov  website 

Apply for benefits
Now that you have leave to remain in the UK you can get the same type of support as British citizens. This includes money from the government called benefits. A benefit is money for people who need help because they have a low income.

I'll leave you to spend the day googling some sort of reponse from the back seat of the bus. 

It was this -

Nobody gets kicked out the country they all get right to remain

People do get kicked out. Not enough though.

And they dont all get right to remain.

[spygirl]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/30/sri-lankan-man-left-in-immigration-limbo-for-decades-can-stay-in-uk

He came to the UK in 1983 to go on a course at the London School of Accountancy, with hopes of forging a professional career. Education was highly valued in his family – both his parents were teachers and his close relatives are lawyers, doctors and accountants.

He should have been thrown out after his course finished.

He was convicted of fraud and theft in 2003, and the Home Office planned to deport him, but he lodged an appeal and an immigration judge ruled in his favour in May 2006. The judge found Jothibala had been pressured and intimidated by criminals into committing the crime, from which he had derived no benefit himself.

The Home Office mistakenly recorded on Jothibala’s file that he had lost rather than won his appeal, although officials took no steps to remove him from the UK, nor did they appeal against the judge’s ruling.

At this point he should have been dragged to the airport.

Any crime, other than minor parking fine, must result in the mgirant being kicked out. No appeal.

He said the Home Office had rejected an application he had made under the Windrush scheme, and called for an amnesty for Commonwealth citizens who arrived in the UK before 1988.

Yess....

 

 

[MrXxxx]

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[MrXxxx]

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[MrXxxx]

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[Joncrete Cungle]

58 minutes ago, spygirl said:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/30/sri-lankan-man-left-in-immigration-limbo-for-decades-can-stay-in-uk

He came to the UK in 1983 to go on a course at the London School of Accountancy, with hopes of forging a professional career. Education was highly valued in his family – both his parents were teachers and his close relatives are lawyers, doctors and accountants.

He should have been thrown out after his course finished.

He was convicted of fraud and theft in 2003, and the Home Office planned to deport him, but he lodged an appeal and an immigration judge ruled in his favour in May 2006. The judge found Jothibala had been pressured and intimidated by criminals into committing the crime, from which he had derived no benefit himself.

The Home Office mistakenly recorded on Jothibala’s file that he had lost rather than won his appeal, although officials took no steps to remove him from the UK, nor did they appeal against the judge’s ruling.

At this point he should have been dragged to the airport.

Any crime, other than minor parking fine, must result in the mgirant being kicked out. No appeal.

He said the Home Office had rejected an application he had made under the Windrush scheme, and called for an amnesty for Commonwealth citizens who arrived in the UK before 1988.

Yess....

 

 

When the Mrs worked for Serco they had a Jamaican Yardie in one of their gimmegrant HMOs who was supposed to be rounded up and deported back to Jamaica with a load of other unsavoury types on a plane.

The Mrs waited for police / border force to turn up at a pre arranged time so she could unlock the doors so they didn't wreck the front door and flat door getting in. They never turned up and the criminal is still here a couple of years later.

[spygirl]

3 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

When the Mrs worked for Serco they had a Jamaican Yardie in one of their gimmegrant HMOs who was supposed to be rounded up and deported back to Jamaica with a load of other unsavoury types on a plane.

The Mrs waited for police / border force to turn up at a pre arranged time so she could unlock the doors so they didn't wreck the front door and flat door getting in. They never turned up and the criminal is still here a couple of years later.

Theres enough migrants kicking around that it would be worth creating some sort of HO Marshall service.

We can staff it with ex squaddies, just for the good press.

Paid a basic, given some info - fair means or foul - and go and find migrants and take them to the airport.

Appeal via email or skype, from the country theyve been returned to.

Fine/bonus levied on the mgriants sponsor or employer.

Its only the lazy, disinterested lefties in the HO preventing a more muscular border force.

The wider UK opinion on mgiration ahs swung so anti than youd not need to worry about the usual bedwetters.

And, like most things, moving to a contribution benefit system will fix ~75%

 

 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

10 hours ago, spygirl said:

The HKers that can move here isnt high.

And most if those will have eyes on Oz or US or Singapore.

UK is too high tax.

Probanly more boomers dying every day.  I';d imagine that's the real reason for the immigration.