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Where will the property bubble burst first?


spunko
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2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

I think with the runaway inflation, there are going to be a lot of old boomers crumbling big houses coming on the market that very, very few people could afford to actually renovate and then heat/maintain.

Doesn't mean they'll drop the price of course but I reckon you'll some sitting on the market for a long time.

I think Spy's right on LOndinium and the comutervilles around it.But I think more generally you hgihlight a key issue alongsdie Spy's commuting costs and that's heating.

We are in the process of a getting a new rental.Nice place but will cost a bit to heat.In the summer would have flown of the shelf,now people are much more circumspect.we haev the adavantage of our 3 year gas/leccy fix which will see us through from the summer when it was cheap.

But aside from geogrpahic consdieartions,I do think you're right that there's a demogrphaic theme too.young couples jsut can't afford to run these big hosues if they're buying them at 6 times salary

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3 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

I think with the runaway inflation, there are going to be a lot of old boomers crumbling big houses coming on the market that very, very few people could afford to actually renovate and then heat/maintain.

Doesn't mean they'll drop the price of course but I reckon you'll some sitting on the market for a long time.

I just saw this one in Basingstoke, which at one time wasn't really commuter belt it was just shite.

Auction are starting it at £340k.. looks like an ex council house with shitloads needing to be spent on it, only person who could afford that is someone whose made a fortune in property chips selling their Londonistan flat.

image.thumb.png.dd92330ab27b25dd7621eb5c2917b7e6.png

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22 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I just saw this one in Basingstoke, which at one time wasn't really commuter belt it was just shite.

Auction are starting it at £340k.. looks like an ex council house with shitloads needing to be spent on it, only person who could afford that is someone whose made a fortune in property chips selling their Londonistan flat.

image.thumb.png.dd92330ab27b25dd7621eb5c2917b7e6.png

To be fair Ive jsut had a look at Basingstoke and I'd say the rental yields on 3/4 beds are circa 3.5%.Not bad really.We're hopefully about to pick up a nice 4 bedder up here sub 3%.I've had a quick look at the buy prices and it's mental down there.Presuming WInchester is even worse?

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2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

To be fair Ive jsut had a look at Basingstoke and I'd say the rental yields on 3/4 beds are circa 3.5%.Not bad really.We're hopefully about to pick up a nice 4 bedder up here sub 3%.I've had a quick look at the buy prices and it's mental down there.Presuming WInchester is even worse?

Ive given up looking.

Ive been in contact with someone that was hired by the council a couple of years ago to get the self build scheme off the ground.

Obviously she is degree educated, and she has managed to get a grand total of 0 plots for the couple of dozen people on the self build list, who by all accounts are people sat with significant sums of money so are able to put large amounts of money in at relatively short notice.

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Bobthebuilder
48 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Ive given up looking.

Ive been in contact with someone that was hired by the council a couple of years ago to get the self build scheme off the ground.

Obviously she is degree educated, and she has managed to get a grand total of 0 plots for the couple of dozen people on the self build list, who by all accounts are people sat with significant sums of money so are able to put large amounts of money in at relatively short notice.

That's mental local council again. Individual ie not corporate people with the funds should have top pick at even "sensitive" plots IMOH, ie greenbelt or outstanding areas of natural keep off my land.

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40 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

That's mental local council again. Individual ie not corporate people with the funds should have top pick at even "sensitive" plots IMOH, ie greenbelt or outstanding areas of natural keep off my land.

mate of mine builds smallish 3 hosue developments.always says it tkaes him months to get the council guys down but they drop their pants for Barratts etc

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47 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

That's mental local council again. Individual ie not corporate people with the funds should have top pick at even "sensitive" plots IMOH, ie greenbelt or outstanding areas of natural keep off my land.

She is very polite, but very useless, sends links to pointless meetings where they endless amount of middle class parasites are making a living doing needless work in relation to planning and talking about property etc...

Thing is councils wouldn't employ someone like me to get this done, as i don't speak their language and i'm "uneducated", though i can be almost certain i'd have brought dozens of plots for self builders within the 1st year. As every job i've ever had i only get paid on results, which is an alien concept to council workers!

I did actually offer to do this for free with my local council when right to build was created in 2015 ish, obviously they refused, as time went on and nothing got released so i had to inform them how fucken useless they are.

 

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London seems ripe to me, it just needs a catalyst.

There are many places like this at stupid prices (check the price history)

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/73153491#/?channel=RES_BUY

Ex-la, not really guaranteed that banks will lend on it. If lending standards tighten then what? Even at the massively reduced price it offers no value, as you have places like this which contain a garden and no living with council people.

A double whammy of higher interest and bigger bills could get people running for the exits, at that stage that is where the fun begins as people step over each other in order to get out.

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16 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

If energy prices keep going up and we have a cold winter, prices for older houses with shitty insulation or crap heating could fall, it's no fun being broke and cold.

And dead.

Thats nice Mr Brown n his fuel subbed allowed OAPs to stay in house waaay too big for them.

Still, the dog wont starve.

 

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16 hours ago, One percent said:

They are getting into bidding wars round my small corner of god’s own. It’s all incomers (or white settlers as we prefer). Talking to a few and they have little idea about what life is really like. If you want a half decent shop, it’s at least a 60 mile round trip.  The winters are fucking cold and a bad winter means you can’t get out the town for days.  I’ll give them all one winter.  Oh, and then the hoards from smoggy descend in the summer meaning the town is completely clogged.  With pissed up neanderthals.  xD  they will be running back to the Home Counties toot sweet. At least I hope so. 

Ehh you sound like that twat, Henderson...

Despite the noise, sales are pretty slow and low.

What seems to unravel people not used to the area are, in particular order -

- Poor healthcare facilities. A lot of the scum ar on DLA of one level. Having to spend you time up n down to james Cook - or risk your life in Scabby general, tends to grind.

- The cold. They tend to buy badly, going for large exposed houses.

- The tourists i.e. people lik them,

- The  lack of job. Theres no nice part time job in Waitrose to top up your income. Its tends to be 50h grind at lo paid. Or nothing.

- The distance from everything esp family. Youve a slow ~120+ round trip to Leeds and back. Thats expensive if you are doing it 2 or 3 times a week.

 

 

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12 hours ago, sancho panza said:

To be fair Ive jsut had a look at Basingstoke and I'd say the rental yields on 3/4 beds are circa 3.5%.Not bad really.We're hopefully about to pick up a nice 4 bedder up here sub 3%.I've had a quick look at the buy prices and it's mental down there.Presuming WInchester is even worse?

All rental yields sub 10% are shit - for the LL at least.

It just appears less shite.

 

Last time I went thru Bstoke - I only change platforms, never go into town  - Id  guess the place was very non British - EE, various colours.

It feels  like its massive dumping ground.

Thats a very recent thing - last 10-15 years.

 

 

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50 minutes ago, Boon said:

London seems ripe to me, it just needs a catalyst.

There are many places like this at stupid prices (check the price history)

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/73153491#/?channel=RES_BUY

Ex-la, not really guaranteed that banks will lend on it. If lending standards tighten then what? Even at the massively reduced price it offers no value, as you have places like this which contain a garden and no living with council people.

A double whammy of higher interest and bigger bills could get people running for the exits, at that stage that is where the fun begins as people step over each other in order to get out.

Top Fed official opens door to faster ‘taper’ of bond-buying programme

Vice-chair’s remarks suggest US central bank could act more quickly to tame soaring inflation

https://www.ft.com/content/b4157c14-63d0-4565-bb37-171e9b8885ff

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12 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Ehh you sound like that twat, Henderson...

Despite the noise, sales are pretty slow and low.

What seems to unravel people not used to the area are, in particular order -

- Poor healthcare facilities. A lot of the scum ar on DLA of one level. Having to spend you time up n down to james Cook - or risk your life in Scabby general, tends to grind.

- The cold. They tend to buy badly, going for large exposed houses.

- The tourists i.e. people lik them,

- The  lack of job. Theres no nice part time job in Waitrose to top up your income. Its tends to be 50h grind at lo paid. Or nothing.

- The distance from everything esp family. Youve a slow ~120+ round trip to Leeds and back. Thats expensive if you are doing it 2 or 3 times a week.

 

 

Know someone who is selling one of those railway cottages. Four different interested parties within half an hour.  Will report back as to progress.  Mate just sold on railway. Bidding war.  

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With a crooked smile
20 hours ago, Hancock said:

 

Auction are starting it at £340k.. looks like an ex council house with shitloads needing to be spent on it, only person who could afford that is someone whose made a fortune in property chips selling their Londonistan flat.

I disagree, I just got a mortgage based on my income alone (partners income wasn't relevant and closed down previous business earlier in the year and started as self employed in new industry). My mortgage is 320k. House is livable but a start from scratch renovation job. 

We're in NW England. 

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20 hours ago, Hancock said:

Ive given up looking.

Ive been in contact with someone that was hired by the council a couple of years ago to get the self build scheme off the ground.

Obviously she is degree educated, and she has managed to get a grand total of 0 plots for the couple of dozen people on the self build list, who by all accounts are people sat with significant sums of money so are able to put large amounts of money in at relatively short notice.

I've been registered with my local council's scheme for years. There's no shortage of shit flats being built, so there's no lack of land. If the councils were serious about helping people to find self build plots, they'd mandate that a percentage of land granted planning permission for building should be sold to self builders, in much the same way that they (pretend to) provide affordable housing by mandate its inclusion in new developments.

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19 hours ago, Hancock said:

She is very polite, but very useless, sends links to pointless meetings where they endless amount of middle class parasites are making a living doing needless work in relation to planning and talking about property etc...

Thing is councils wouldn't employ someone like me to get this done, as i don't speak their language and i'm "uneducated", though i can be almost certain i'd have brought dozens of plots for self builders within the 1st year. As every job i've ever had i only get paid on results, which is an alien concept to council workers!

I used my local council's "entrepreneurs service" a few years ago as I had developed a product and needed some advice on getting it manufactured. Spoke to a similar utterly useless person. It became clear that the main aim of the entrepreneurs service was to provide somewhere for the unemployable to pretend to have a job ("entrepreneur!") while claiming benefits.

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4 hours ago, AWW said:

I used my local council's "entrepreneurs service" a few years ago as I had developed a product and needed some advice on getting it manufactured. Spoke to a similar utterly useless person. It became clear that the main aim of the entrepreneurs service was to provide somewhere for the unemployable to pretend to have a job ("entrepreneur!") while claiming benefits.

The money they spend is seemingly endless.

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4 hours ago, AWW said:

I've been registered with my local council's scheme for years. There's no shortage of shit flats being built, so there's no lack of land. If the councils were serious about helping people to find self build plots, they'd mandate that a percentage of land granted planning permission for building should be sold to self builders, in much the same way that they (pretend to) provide affordable housing by mandate its inclusion in new developments.

Most are charging people to go on their self build lists now, so you can now send the council £50-£250 a year to not get a plot. Apparantly its to pay for the upkeep of their list.

Quite how it cost more than £10 per annum to put peoples names and numbers on an excel spreadsheet is only something  councils could manage

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5 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

I disagree, I just got a mortgage based on my income alone (partners income wasn't relevant and closed down previous business earlier in the year and started as self employed in new industry). My mortgage is 320k. House is livable but a start from scratch renovation job. 

We're in NW England. 

Good luck to you, hope you got it fixed for a decade or more.

You must be on at least 60k a year to fund such a mortgage, but most people aren't.

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I think in that Basingstoke example you are leaving out BOMAD. That seems to have continued, and maybe with old folk dying of covid may continue to happen.

Something like £50k-60k 'donation', £20-30k own savings then leaves a £60k joint income that is needed. Which is no real stretch for many in London.

Quite a similar tale here. Nothing spectacular at all in terms of jobs, although while the lady claims 'super manageable' it seems to be they will be up shit creek if they have a kid and needs to stop work, or if interest rates go up and their fixed term ends as they were on 85% LTV. 

I assume they have borrowed as much as they can - otherwise why choose Croydon? 

I know a few who bought wrecks, took about a month to get up to 'liveable' standard, then completed the rest over time.

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On 20/11/2021 at 00:12, Hancock said:

She is very polite, but very useless, sends links to pointless meetings where they endless amount of middle class parasites are making a living doing needless work in relation to planning and talking about property etc...

Is her job security dependant on stringing it out as long as possible? :/

Hmmm.... o.O

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15 minutes ago, UmBongo said:

Is her job security dependant on stringing it out as long as possible? :/

Hmmm.... o.O

Who knows id imagine there will be other non jobs once on the councils gravy train.

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Went looking at a semi house today. 185k. Obviously an ex- rental Hahahaha.  Guttering incorrectly installed. 15yr old baxi boiler. Downstairs bathroom. Non cavity walls. Needed a total rewire, rear back door, attached  out house building needed new hot melt roof. The best being the neighbours had a bank of 6 kennels - Alsatian dog breeders ffs.
The “ property maintenance “ company was the estate agent. Left and pmsl. Needed £40k to bring it up to the same standard as next door kennels. Thought I’d share the unfolding shit show.

 

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20 minutes ago, Phil said:

Went looking at a semi house today. 185k. Obviously an ex- rental Hahahaha.  Guttering incorrectly installed. 15yr old baxi boiler. Downstairs bathroom. Non cavity walls. Needed a total rewire, rear back door, attached  out house building needed new hot melt roof. The best being the neighbours had a bank of 6 kennels - Alsatian dog breeders ffs.
The “ property maintenance “ company was the estate agent. Left and pmsl. Needed £40k to bring it up to the same standard as next door kennels. Thought I’d share the unfolding shit show.

 

Forgot to mention the maintenance co was the landlord.

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Bus Stop Boxer

More from N Dorset.

The trend of "unexpectedly re-availables" appearing is gathering momentum.

Are the jabs starting to bite in to real life?

 

Edit to add.

This will be jab central down here. Prob well over 90% spiked.

Intrigue.

Edited by Bus Stop Boxer
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