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Where will the property bubble burst first?


spunko
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Bobthebuilder
1 hour ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

More from N Dorset.

The trend of "unexpectedly re-availables" appearing is gathering momentum.

Are the jabs starting to bite in to real life?

Been seeing that for a while, noticed more being reduced than new to market as well.

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Bus Stop Boxer
50 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Been seeing that for a while, noticed more being reduced than new to market as well.

Just edited post to mention jab rates. Will be as close to 100% as anywhere in the country down here. Total obedience.

 

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And for some good news. (though to be honest im seeing houses sell in just a few weeks)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/worst-october-house-sales-since-financial-crisis/

House sales in England plunged to the lowest level recorded in any October since the global financial crisis as the last of the stamp duty holiday savings disappeared, official data show.

The number of transactions fell 33.4pc year-on-year to 66,830 sales in England last month, the lowest October level recorded since 2008.

Across the whole of the UK there were 76,930 transactions last month, according to HM Revenue & Customs’ estimate. This was 28.2pc lower than in October 2020 and a 52pc drop since September, when buyers rushed to take advantage of the last of the tax savings.

HMRC’s estimate was slightly higher at 85,090. But this was the lowest number in any October since 2012.

The end of the tax break, which stopped for good in England and Northern Ireland on September 30, was key. While sales plummeted in England, in Wales, by contrast, where the equivalent tax break ended earlier in June, transactions were level year-on-year.

House transactions fall to lowest October level since 2008

Line chart with 38 data points.

The end of the stamp duty holiday, which stopped for good in England and Northern Ireland on September 30, was key

View as data table, House transactions fall to lowest October level since 2008

The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. Range: 2018-08-20 17:45:36 to 2021-10-12 06:14:24.

The chart has 1 Y axis displaying Residential property transactions. Range: 0 to 250000.

Jan '19Jul '19Jan '20Jul '20Jan '21Jul '21050k100k150k200k250kSOURCE: HMRC

House transactions fall to lowest October level since 2008

The end of the stamp duty holiday, which stopped for good in England and Northern Ireland on September 30, was key

Residential property transactions

End of interactive chart.

From July 2020, buyers in England and Northern Ireland could save up to £15,000 if they completed sales before June 30 2021. From July to September 30 this year, the most you could save was £2,500. 

Advertisement

Across this period, total transactions in England and Northern Ireland were up 270,000 on the same period to September 2019, according to analysis by Savills estate agents. Above £500,000, where buyers could benefit from the maximum £15,000 saving in the more generous stage of the stamp duty holiday, transactions increased by 70pc.

This surge was so extreme that the Treasury only lost £1bn, despite the fact that buyers saved a total of £6.4bn in stamp duty.

The October transaction figures represented the first time in 15 months there wasn't a financial incentive to buy property.

Antony Codling, of Twindig analysts, said the housing market's hangover had begun.

But Lawrence Bowles, of Savills, noted that the October drop was still marginally higher than the number recorded in July, when transactions plunged after the tax break tapered. “That suggests low interest rates and a pent up desire to move home continue to sustain activity,” said Mr Bowles.

“That points to a gradual normalisation of the market, with transactions likely to slow because of the depleted levels of available stock on the market given the extent of buying activity over the past 18 months, rather than an underlying lack of buyer demand,” he added.

As high inflation continues, however, a succession of rises in the Bank Rate are imminent. Mortgage rates will soon rise, which will hit affordability.

The national statistics also conceal major regional diversions. Activity in the central London market has accelerated with the return to the office and the increasing ease of international travel, which have had more impact than the end of the tax break. 

Guy Gittins, of Chestertons estate agents said: “At the end of October, our new buyer enquiries were up 18pc compared to this time last year when we had the added urgency and incentive of the stamp duty holiday.” Agreed sales across Chestertons’ London offices rose by 26pc compared to September

Edited by Hancock
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On 18/11/2021 at 11:46, spunko said:

An interesting new angle from the MSM!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/country-house-price-bubble-could-burst/

Where the country house price bubble could burst

Bidding wars and cold, hard cash: the rush to move in the wake of the pandemic drove a well-documented frenzy in the rural property market.

But there are signs that this is a bubble that could soon burst, causing prices to fall, especially in “B-list” locations. Buyers could suddenly find they have overpaid substantially.

In October 2019, 15pc of rural homes sold above their asking price, according to Hamptons estate agents. In October 2020, that share had climbed to 18pc. In the same month this year, it rocketed to 40pc.

This was the highest share on record, which goes back to 2009. In remote rural areas, 46pc of homes sold had three or more buyers, according to Hamptons. In the countryside, 29pc of homes sold so far this year were subject to bidding wars, a jump from 18pc last year.

Sale prices have climbed by 9.8pc in the year to date, building on 8.7pc growth in 2020, according to Hamptons. This was a sea change from the 0.3pc flatline recorded in 2019.

Prices of the most expensive country homes have jumped 20pc over the course of the pandemic, said Jonathan Bramwell, of The Buying Solution consultants.

He noted a 7,500 sq ft house in the Cotswolds with a £6.5m asking price. It is now under offer at £7.1m. “Two years ago, I would have said it would go for £5m,” said Mr Bramwell. That is equivalent to a 42pc jump.

But in the most expensive parts of the rural property market, the boom is losing steam. Prices have finally become too steep and buyers no longer feel that pandemic-induced time pressure to buy that helped push up bids.

In the Surrey town of Haslemere, previously a super-charged propert hotspot in the pandemic, a house was listed four months ago with an asking price of £2.5m. Richard Winter, a buying agent, said: “First it dropped to £2.25m, now it is down to £1.95m. We have made an offer but it is still nowhere near guide.”

The dynamics of the market have shifted. “Back in May, we were bidding on a house in Hampshire that had an asking price of £1.95m and it went for £2.25m. There were six people bidding for the same house,” said Mr Winter.

“The difference between then and now is that agents are guiding at much higher prices and buyers aren’t as eager to compete. They don’t want to get into bidding wars.”

Deborah Moriaty, an agent at Richard Winter Surrey Property Search, said: “The market is more subdued, it is not moving at the same voracious pace. We have been securing properties at asking price or just below.”

The stamp duty holiday, which triggered an artificial spike in activity, has now gone. Workers are returning to offices and commuting links are becoming more important again. Agents still report exceptional demand, but there is a question mark over the future of pandemic trends.

“It will become a very polarised market,” said Mr Bramwell. “The places that are always popular, in Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty, with good schooling and train links to London, they are bulletproof.” The country’s secondary markets, however, are not.

“During the pandemic, areas without these qualities have seen huge price inflation. Maybe they are half an hour from a station, or they’re out on a limb for the school runs. Suddenly, when the market turns, there will be nothing else drawing buyers in. That’s where someone could really burn their fingers,” said Mr Bramwell.

Areas within a 2.5 to three hour journey radius from London will be vulnerable, he said. “People who paid £3m for a property could easily find it is back at £2.5m quite quickly.”

But some buyers simply do not care. Alex Goldstein (triple brackets?), a buying agent who works between Yorkshire and London, said: “People are taking a much longer viewpoint [when buying property]. It used to be five to 10 years. Now it is 15 to 20. If they have to pay over the odds to blow everyone else out of the water, they feel it will be OK over a 20-year period. They are prepared to go through the short-term pain.”

In Yorkshire, sales of the most expensive homes at 5pc or 10pc over guide price are common, said Mr Goldstein. But not all mortgage providers are on board. “Surveyors and lenders have struggled to keep pace, and we are seeing down valuations.” In one case, a buyer offered £1m and had to source an extra £30,000 in cash after their lender downvalued the property.

The post-pandemic surge in activity could come at a price further down the line. Chris Sykes, of mortgage broker Private Finance, said: “The stamp duty holiday did spur decisions very quickly and a lot of people brought plans forward. There could be a bit of a corresponding lull in the future. That could mean prices could stay flat in the medium term.”

Anticipated rate rises will have a cooling effect, added Mr Winter. Aside from reducing buyers’ purchasing power, rate rises could trigger a rise in supply. “It may encourage people to sell because they will be worried the market will slow,” he said. “We’re seeing quite a lot of people who want to buy and put their house on the market in January.”

Just cannot see it myself, debt junkies will be saved before "prudent savers" and unless we have a mass exodus from the UK which I maybe would not rule out in a few decades then house prices will hold up..... probably

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59 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Just cannot see it myself, debt junkies will be saved before "prudent savers" and unless we have a mass exodus from the UK which I maybe would not rule out in a few decades then house prices will hold up..... probably

If it was politically beneficial to make house prices drop then politicians would.

In my opinion, based on discussions I've had, most people think high house prices are a big negative. But the opinion polls that politicians see are massaged so that they form the opposite conclusion.

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2 hours ago, spunko said:

If it was politically beneficial to make house prices drop then politicians would.

In my opinion, based on discussions I've had, most people think high house prices are a big negative. But the opinion polls that politicians see are massaged so that they form the opposite conclusion.

The tide is turning and at some point non house owners will have more power, though many MP's and friends have property wealth that makes them a little more stubborn.

Would love to see prices fall or even crash, but I just cannot see it right now. I have had my guys entering 100's of HMO rooms in Cambridge and these are not the dross of society but workers in the Science park, hospitals etc and many when prodded will tell you how pissed they are about their lot and life in a room lost in their social media world in the dark, partly the reason I posted last week about how dystopian this country is becoming 

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Bobthebuilder

Noticed this one a few weeks ago, and it sums up the madness that is Dorset at the mo.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/114593033#/?channel=RES_BUY

It says Wimborne, but it's really Corfe Mullen. It's been reduced twice already in the last few weeks, but the bit I find funny is that it was bought in 2020 for £530,000.

Oooh, lights, pretty lights.

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9 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Noticed this one a few weeks ago, and it sums up the madness that is Dorset at the mo.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/114593033#/?channel=RES_BUY

It says Wimborne, but it's really Corfe Mullen. It's been reduced twice already in the last few weeks, but the bit I find funny is that it was bought in 2020 for £530,000.

Oooh, lights, pretty lights.

The tarmac. Is it pikies?  

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Bobthebuilder
1 minute ago, One percent said:

The tarmac. Is it pikies?  

Shit aint it, gravel would be nicer.

2 things I noticed, Fortnum and Mason hampers and a poster of Westminster bridge Londoners chasing the wave down me thinks.

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5 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Shit aint it, gravel would be nicer.

2 things I noticed, Fortnum and Mason hampers and a poster of Westminster bridge Londoners chasing the wave down me thinks.

Fucking them and Home Counties lot are moving up here on mass. Livin’ the dream.  Wonder gow they are coping with the weather. xD

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On 23/11/2021 at 20:09, Hancock said:

 

And for some good news. (though to be honest im seeing houses sell in just a few weeks)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/worst-october-house-sales-since-financial-crisis/

House sales in England plunged to the lowest level recorded in any October since the global financial crisis as the last of the stamp duty holiday savings disappeared, official data show.

The number of transactions fell 33.4pc year-on-year to 66,830 sales in England last month, the lowest October level recorded since 2008.

Across the whole of the UK there were 76,930 transactions last month, according to HM Revenue & Customs’ estimate. This was 28.2pc lower than in October 2020 and a 52pc drop since September, when buyers rushed to take advantage of the last of the tax savings.

HMRC’s estimate was slightly higher at 85,090. But this was the lowest number in any October since 2012.

The end of the tax break, which stopped for good in England and Northern Ireland on September 30, was key. While sales plummeted in England, in Wales, by contrast, where the equivalent tax break ended earlier in June, transactions were level year-on-year.

House transactions fall to lowest October level since 2008

Line chart with 38 data points.

The end of the stamp duty holiday, which stopped for good in England and Northern Ireland on September 30, was key

View as data table, House transactions fall to lowest October level since 2008

The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. Range: 2018-08-20 17:45:36 to 2021-10-12 06:14:24.

The chart has 1 Y axis displaying Residential property transactions. Range: 0 to 250000.

Jan '19Jul '19Jan '20Jul '20Jan '21Jul '21050k100k150k200k250kSOURCE: HMRC

House transactions fall to lowest October level since 2008

The end of the stamp duty holiday, which stopped for good in England and Northern Ireland on September 30, was key

Residential property transactions

End of interactive chart.

From July 2020, buyers in England and Northern Ireland could save up to £15,000 if they completed sales before June 30 2021. From July to September 30 this year, the most you could save was £2,500. 

Advertisement

Across this period, total transactions in England and Northern Ireland were up 270,000 on the same period to September 2019, according to analysis by Savills estate agents. Above £500,000, where buyers could benefit from the maximum £15,000 saving in the more generous stage of the stamp duty holiday, transactions increased by 70pc.

This surge was so extreme that the Treasury only lost £1bn, despite the fact that buyers saved a total of £6.4bn in stamp duty.

The October transaction figures represented the first time in 15 months there wasn't a financial incentive to buy property.

Antony Codling, of Twindig analysts, said the housing market's hangover had begun.

But Lawrence Bowles, of Savills, noted that the October drop was still marginally higher than the number recorded in July, when transactions plunged after the tax break tapered. “That suggests low interest rates and a pent up desire to move home continue to sustain activity,” said Mr Bowles.

“That points to a gradual normalisation of the market, with transactions likely to slow because of the depleted levels of available stock on the market given the extent of buying activity over the past 18 months, rather than an underlying lack of buyer demand,” he added.

As high inflation continues, however, a succession of rises in the Bank Rate are imminent. Mortgage rates will soon rise, which will hit affordability.

The national statistics also conceal major regional diversions. Activity in the central London market has accelerated with the return to the office and the increasing ease of international travel, which have had more impact than the end of the tax break. 

Guy Gittins, of Chestertons estate agents said: “At the end of October, our new buyer enquiries were up 18pc compared to this time last year when we had the added urgency and incentive of the stamp duty holiday.” Agreed sales across Chestertons’ London offices rose by 26pc compared to September

Gut needs to be looking for a new job, pronto.

 

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HousePriceMania
On 26/11/2021 at 18:19, Bobthebuilder said:

Noticed this one a few weeks ago, and it sums up the madness that is Dorset at the mo.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/114593033#/?channel=RES_BUY

It says Wimborne, but it's really Corfe Mullen. It's been reduced twice already in the last few weeks, but the bit I find funny is that it was bought in 2020 for £530,000.

Oooh, lights, pretty lights.

Thrice now

 

£1,018,024
Price Change History
26/11/2021 Price changed from £1,038,800 to £1,018,024
15/11/2021 Price changed from £1,060,000 to £1,038,800
01/11/2021 Price changed from £1,090,000 to £1,060,000
10/10/2021 Initial entry found: £1,090,000

 

Still, that's some crazy price rise.

The agents must be making up prices to get anyone on their books.

 

 

 

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Bobthebuilder
5 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Thrice now

 

£1,018,024
Price Change History
26/11/2021 Price changed from £1,038,800 to £1,018,024
15/11/2021 Price changed from £1,060,000 to £1,038,800
01/11/2021 Price changed from £1,090,000 to £1,060,000
10/10/2021 Initial entry found: £1,090,000

 

Still, that's some crazy price rise.

The agents must be making up prices to get anyone on their books.

 

 

 

I like the £24 on the end of the current asking price. They must have added it to cover the last month's milkman bill, well, it's gotta pay for itself, right?

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10 hours ago, Option5 said:

Aberdeen's 3100 new home new, town development at Countesswells has gone into administration.

https://dailybusinessgroup.co.uk/2021/11/countesswells-new-town-firm-in-administration/

 

Aberdeen has to be one the most dreadful towns in the British Isles to live, i can never get my head around who are the endless couples looking to put down roots for these new builds; when the oil industry is getting smaller all the time.

Its dark and cold for most of the year, and when it isn't its merely windy and a bit brighter.

 

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1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Aberdeen has to be one the most dreadful towns in the British Isles to live, i can never get my head around who are the endless couples looking to put down roots for these new builds; when the oil industry is getting smaller all the time.

Its dark and cold for most of the year, and when it isn't its merely windy and a bit brighter.

 

I played their rugby there once.Never again.Depressing in so many ways,not least that it's governed by the Scottish equivalent of a poor man's version of Stalin-neither murderous or funny.Although I like the way she's turning the whole country into a gulag.

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12 hours ago, Option5 said:

Aberdeen's 3100 new home new, town development at Countesswells has gone into administration.

https://dailybusinessgroup.co.uk/2021/11/countesswells-new-town-firm-in-administration/

 

Haha. So a 30% correction forced them out of business. Here's hoping it'll happen everywhere not just Aberdeen.

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2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I played their rugby there once.Never again.Depressing in so many ways,not least that it's governed by the Scottish equivalent of a poor man's version of Stalin-neither murderous or funny.Although I like the way she's turning the whole country into a gulag.

As soon as there is a sniff of being able to lockdown further she is straight in there, wanting 8 days quarantine for return travellers. Though it is Boris who gives her the ammunition.

With ABZ you're paying south of England prices to live in what seems like eternal darkness!

If she was any kind of socialist she'd have crashed the Scottish property market a long time ago, but she's just another shouty version of Boris and the rest of them.

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5 hours ago, spunko said:

Haha. So a 30% correction forced them out of business. Here's hoping it'll happen everywhere not just Aberdeen.

I lived in Aberdeen for many years and it's  property prices seem to collapse every 20 years :ph34r:

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Bobthebuilder
On 29/11/2021 at 14:15, HousePriceMania said:

The agents must be making up prices to get anyone on their books.

This one in Wimborne, Dorset caught my eye. £640,000 for a semi on a modern estate.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/117137102#/?channel=RES_BUY

Pic 1, Untidy garden and drive.

Pic 4 and 5, Kitchen, no tiled splashback, grease and burn marks on the wall behind cooker and no extractor.

Pic 11, Shower tray not finished.

Laminate flooring in most rooms, I mean, really? Is that worth £640k in anyone's opinion?

 

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Like these ones, as you can see the history.

Sold for c.£440k in 2017:
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=67285313&sale=5842396&country=england

Let's say £450k with fees.

Since then there has been an extension downstairs, new bathrooms fitted upstairs. All rooms refloored and painted.

I'm guessing it looks unfinished because they have lived in it while doing it up, the own goals seem rather easy to correct.

You can get a new detached for £500k here:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/82730769#/?channel=RES_NEW

So basically like a lot of properties they are looking more someone with more money than sense.

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On 02/12/2021 at 12:40, Bobthebuilder said:

This one in Wimborne, Dorset caught my eye. £640,000 for a semi on a modern estate.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/117137102#/?channel=RES_BUY

Pic 1, Untidy garden and drive.

Pic 4 and 5, Kitchen, no tiled splashback, grease and burn marks on the wall behind cooker and no extractor.

Pic 11, Shower tray not finished.

Laminate flooring in most rooms, I mean, really? Is that worth £640k in anyone's opinion?

 

Jesus £640k for a semi in Grimborne, i've been there a couple of times and its the most violent place on a night time

Full of drunken posh kids who think they're bad.

Seems prices have almost doubled since 2014/15 .... thanks to Gidiot and the Tories.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/bh21-1tq.html

These prices sum up the UK propert market, shows prices falling until 2010, then in 2014 the affects of Help to Buy and Term Funding Scam have just kicked in.

If theyd raised rates and didnt come up with HTB, FFL, TFS prices would be relatively normal in relation to wages by now.

 

image.png.5160287a90cd91e9b27f51d89e42d2ff.png

Edited by Hancock
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Bobthebuilder
3 hours ago, Hancock said:

Jesus £640k for a semi in Grimborne, i've been there a couple of times and its the most violent place on a night time

Full of drunken posh kids who think they're bad.

Seems prices have almost doubled since 2014/15

Have a look at the bungalow in Grimborne I posted up thread. Sold in 2020 for £530,000 on sale now a year later for over £1,000,000. Mental.

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4 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Have a look at the bungalow in Grimborne I posted up thread. Sold in 2020 for £530,000 on sale now a year later for over £1,000,000. Mental.

Only problem i see with prices over 400k is that there are not many high paying jobs outside the public sector, so other than money from inheritance and HPI, not many would be able to come close to pay such prices.

Maybe the Londoners selling up and moving could buy, but Grimborne is hardly living the dream.

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Bobthebuilder
10 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Only problem i see with prices over 400k is that there are not many high paying jobs outside the public sector, so other than money from inheritance and HPI, not many would be able to come close to pay such prices.

Maybe the Londoners selling up and moving could buy, but Grimborne is hardly living the dream.

Agree.

Just a few miles North, you can get something like this.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/114997535#/?channel=RES_BUY

Makes no sense to me whatsoever.

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