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Bkkandrew

Next Black Swan Event

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OK, we do lack a thread for this.

What do we think will be the next Black Swan to shake it all up?

I have gone with Spanish Civil War on the other thread...

Edited by Bkkandrew
Word order. Too much beer and wine. Late here, can't get anything right. In fact, it's like a Black Swan that I am sober enough to type!

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North Korea.

I've don't know exactly how it will end, but I think it will end soon.

Possibly with the demonstration of some previously unseen very high-end space based weapons tech from the Americans.

1 minute ago, The Generation Game said:

Is a black swan a "known unknown", "unknown known" or an "unknown unknown"?

Unknown unknown.

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8 minutes ago, spunko2010 said:

Isn't a Black Swan Event one that pretty much nobody predicted? NK being invaded is pretty odds-on.

it needs to be random. I'm going for a towelhead blowing up Sealife Centre.

I think it can be an existing situation rapidly developing in a unforeseen way.

I agree that a pre-emptive strike by the US or N Korea is very possible and therefore not a Black Swan event.

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13 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

I think it can be an existing situation rapidly developing in a unforeseen way.

I agree that a pre-emptive strike by the US or N Korea is very possible and therefore not a Black Swan event.

 

That could be the reaction of China and Russia to anything the US does.

Now that B1-B's are flying up and down the NK coast it would not surprise me if the Russians or Chinese start to assist the NK''s more proactively. Give them radar info from their S-300's or even ship them some modern day S-300's. That would be a huge game-changer.

Otherwise, I think the assasination of some one - the Queen, Trump, Merkel - is a possibility. Or some massive ongoing terrorist attack, like in Bombay, in London or Frankfurt or Paris. Oops, it happened in Paris.

I would not rule out the Turks doing something - there clearly is some fundamentalist islamic links between Qatar and Turkey. That whole area could alter dramatically if Edrogan decides to send his troops across borders.

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36 minutes ago, spunko2010 said:

Isn't a Black Swan Event one that pretty much nobody predicted? NK being invaded is pretty odds-on.

it needs to be random. I'm going for a towelhead blowing up Sealife Centre while they're inside and drowning to death.

My black swan isn't the US taking out NK. It's the way they do it.

In that they do it through the demonstration of some new weapons technology that ushers in a new paradigm in warfare, and leaves them in a similar position to 1945 after they'd dropped the first nukes.

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Iraqi Kurdistan independence vote could have major impact in Iraq, Syria, Iran and, in particular, Turkey. Much more likely to kick off than Spain/Catalonia and 4/5 nations in the mix.

But that wouldn't be a real black swan. I'd hazard a spectacular ISIS attack like Twin Towers. The Sagrada Famila was targeted recently so something like that, Eiffel Tower, Big Ben, White House, Vatican, Kremlin, etc.

ETA: still not sure that's a black swan.

 

Edited by The Idiocrat

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27 minutes ago, The Masked Tulip said:

 

That could be the reaction of China and Russia to anything the US does.

Now that B1-B's are flying up and down the NK coast it would not surprise me if the Russians or Chinese start to assist the NK''s more proactively. Give them radar info from their S-300's or even ship them some modern day S-300's. That would be a huge game-changer.

Otherwise, I think the assasination of some one - the Queen, Trump, Merkel - is a possibility. Or some massive ongoing terrorist attack, like in Bombay, in London or Frankfurt or Paris. Oops, it happened in Paris.

I would not rule out the Turks doing something - there clearly is some fundamentalist islamic links between Qatar and Turkey. That whole area could alter dramatically if Edrogan decides to send his troops across borders.

Rumour has it that the Americans have cracked the s300  / s400 and can routinely jam them which is why the Russians didn't bother using it in the Cruise Missile attack to track the missiles in Syria earlier this year.

This is despite Errols (ToS) 3x a day ejaculations over his picture collection of S300's.

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1 minute ago, Kurt Barlow said:

Rumour has it that the Americans have cracked the s300  / s400 and can routinely jam them which is why the Russians didn't bother using it in the Cruise Missile attack to track the missiles in Syria earlier this year.

This is despite Errols (ToS) 3x a day ejaculations over his picture collection of S300's.

 

The USAF sends a lot of unprotected surveillance aircraft and tankers around NK - these will be easy targets for the NKers as opposed to trying to go after a B1-B or an F-15. So the Yanks will now have to re-think these listening and spying missions perhaps with a need to send F-15's along with them.

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7 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

Iraqi Kurdistan independence vote could have major impact in Iraq, Syria, Iran and, in particular, Turkey. Much more likely to kick off than Spain/Catalonia and 4/5 nations in the mix.

But that wouldn't be a real black swan. I'd hazard a spectacular ISIS attack like Twin Towers. The Sagrada Famila was targeted recently so something like that, Eiffel Tower, Big Ben, White House, Vatican, etc.

ETA: still not sure that's a black swan.

 

Fecking hell. Could this stop all the Kurdish Asylum Seekers round my way heading back each summer to work in the Turkish tourist resorts?

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NK did shoot down a US surveillance aircraft in 1969 - IIRC about 40 men were killed.

10 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

Iraqi Kurdistan independence vote could have major impact in Iraq, Syria, Iran and, in particular, Turkey. Much more likely to kick off than Spain/Catalonia and 4/5 nations in the mix.

But that wouldn't be a real black swan. I'd hazard a spectacular ISIS attack like Twin Towers. The Sagrada Famila was targeted recently so something like that, Eiffel Tower, Big Ben, White House, Vatican, Kremlin, etc.

ETA: still not sure that's a black swan.

 

St. Paul's now has armed police guarding it apparently.

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3 minutes ago, Kurt Barlow said:

Fecking hell. Could this stop all the Kurdish Asylum Seekers round my way heading back each summer to work in the Turkish tourist resorts?

Why do they bother? - surely they can nob overweight white British DOSBODS in UK anyway now they're here. No need to dress up as a waiter anymore to do so.

Edited by The Idiocrat

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