Crack-up Boom 2022 onwards

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Self cert stopped dead in 2008. Killed with MMR in 2014ish.

 

Rates are going up.

Credit is being withdrawn.

Banks are bracing.

 

 

Cheers.

 

[Jesus Wept]

Crack up Boom becoming more likely as each day passes….

- when you have inflation - many people think the stock market cannot go up due to an inevitable monetary response - raising IRs etc… Not so with a crack up boom. 

- When the currency goes down the toilet rapidly - the price of assets goes up rapidly. 
 

- Dash for Assets…

- It’s a confidence thing. When the ‘authorities’ lose control of the monetary narrative , and the money supply …… as they print too much money and they don’t raise IRs forcefully enough - and it finds its way into assets things can change pretty quickly. 

- investors start thinking I need to put my money in assets. Any assets. Bad money starts to chase bad money. E.g bitcoin up from $32000 to $45000 (45% in a month).

- US has reached $32tn in debt predicted to rise to $50tn in 4 years. 

- we are in a ponzi - built on exponentially increasing debt AND credit levels. 

- When debt is 130% of GDP we need inflation - only way we can return to ‘some normality’. They want it to run hot. They will talk the talk about getting it under control - but let it run as much as they can and hope it doesn’t go to ratshit.

There will be an uncontrolled increase in the money supply to keep the Ponzi scheme going. 
Once the general population finally wake up and realise that it’s a deliberate action by the government and will go on endlessly…… PANIC sets in…

Everyone will become anxious to swap any money they have for assets and commodities the panic will spiral even more. Within a few weeks money becomes worthless - scrap paper.
 

The bottom line is if the public start to realise that money will be printed without hesitation and it continues to increase exponentially then there is no turning back….. the public will lose confidence in money as a means of exchange. They will turn to barter. 

Crack up boom will spread over seas to dollar pegged currencies.

Edited to add: The great unknown is will we get one more deflationary collapse in 2022 (The Big Kahuna as we say)…. ???

Before the last and final monetary expansion…? .. or is this it and we hurtle towards the crack up boom exponentially rising stocks and assets as the currencies devalue….?

Heres a nice little graph to leave you with….

 

I will continue to go into reflation : high dividend stocks:

Holdings February 2022:

BP, SHEL, SLB, REP, ENB

BATS, IMB,

BT, TEF, ORA, T, VZ, VOD,

FRES, POLY

NG, MNG, GSK, HFEL, BA

RR

ARB, PHAG, PHGP

Physical Gold & SILVER (Bullion Vault).

[Spiney Norman]

22 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Crack up Boom becoming more likely as each day passes….

Good post.

Over what time frame?

[Jesus Wept]

48 minutes ago, Spiney Norman said:

Good post.

Over what time frame?

If only I knew !

Longer than many people expect. 

If a crack up boom is realised than….

Option A: Market melt-up … al la my mate Dave ….all the way to the end of the summer - after which fear sets in - IRs rise pops the bubble and we get the BK. From 2023 onwards we get one final massive monetary expansion all the way through to a crack up boom by end of the decade. 

Option B: Inflation continues into 2023 and onwards. 2 years time we are hitting 30% ++ inflation and crack up boom comes early. 

My gut tells me Option A. 

[spygirl]

US $ debt is different.

You need to consider the size of global economy /trading rather than US GDP.

[Jesus Wept]

7 hours ago, spygirl said:

US $ debt is different.

You need to consider the size of global economy /trading rather than US GDP.

Not really - it’s the rate of change that’s important.

The rate of expansion of debt is exponential.

40% of all dollars that have ever existed were ‘printed’ in the last 18 months.

[HousePriceMania]

11 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

If only I knew !

Longer than many people expect. 

If a crack up boom is realised than….

Option A: Market melt-up … al la my mate Dave ….all the way to the end of the summer - after which fear sets in - IRs rise pops the bubble and we get the BK. From 2023 onwards we get one final massive monetary expansion all the way through to a crack up boom by end of the decade. 

Option B: Inflation continues into 2023 and onwards. 2 years time we are hitting 30% ++ inflation and crack up boom comes early. 

My gut tells me Option A. 

I think we've been faced with that choice for some time and at some point I, or we, have to decide which one is coming.

Looking at the actions of the FED, you'd say B, but the BoE have reigned it in a bit, so A is still possible.  The ECBs lunacy says B too.

If you know what the game is you will survive.  As I learned a while back, the people buying 30 year gilts at this point...

have done ever so well.

If you think you're losing your money to inflation, you only lose it if you spend it, oddly Pishi Sunake wants eveyrone spending it.

Past sanity is no guarantee of future sanity

P.S.

£1000 compounded over 30 years at 15% is....£76000.

 

[HousePriceMania]

@Jesus Wept is my understanding correct, these bonds rates are compounded yoy, so buying at just the right time trumps any inflation ? 

I think it would be prudent to start buying at 5%, then 6% and keep going till you run out of money.

[Jesus Wept]

23 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

If only I knew !

Longer than many people expect. 

If a crack up boom is realised than….

Option A: Market melt-up … al la my mate Dave ….all the way to the end of the summer - after which fear sets in - IRs rise pops the bubble and we get the BK. From 2023 onwards we get one final massive monetary expansion all the way through to a crack up boom by end of the decade. 

Option B: Inflation continues into 2023 and onwards. 2 years time we are hitting 30% ++ inflation and crack up boom comes early. 

My gut tells me Option A. 

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.

The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved”

 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.

The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved”

 

Cheers. I was going to ask the thread - Question. Will I have access to my H&L account when the dust settles? A bit tounge in cheek as I would assume there won’t be any H&L left. I kinda want it to happen, strange I know.

[Errol]

[wherebee]

On 10/02/2022 at 07:45, Jesus Wept said:

Crack up Boom becoming more likely as each day passes….

- when you have inflation - many people think the stock market cannot go up due to an inevitable monetary response - raising IRs etc… Not so with a crack up boom. 

- When the currency goes down the toilet rapidly - the price of assets goes up rapidly. 
 

- Dash for Assets…

- It’s a confidence thing. When the ‘authorities’ lose control of the monetary narrative , and the money supply …… as they print too much money and they don’t raise IRs forcefully enough - and it finds its way into assets things can change pretty quickly. 

- investors start thinking I need to put my money in assets. Any assets. Bad money starts to chase bad money. E.g bitcoin up from $32000 to $45000 (45% in a month).

- US has reached $32tn in debt predicted to rise to $50tn in 4 years. 

- we are in a ponzi - built on exponentially increasing debt AND credit levels. 

- When debt is 130% of GDP we need inflation - only way we can return to ‘some normality’. They want it to run hot. They will talk the talk about getting it under control - but let it run as much as they can and hope it doesn’t go to ratshit.

There will be an uncontrolled increase in the money supply to keep the Ponzi scheme going. 
Once the general population finally wake up and realise that it’s a deliberate action by the government and will go on endlessly…… PANIC sets in…

Everyone will become anxious to swap any money they have for assets and commodities the panic will spiral even more. Within a few weeks money becomes worthless - scrap paper.
 

The bottom line is if the public start to realise that money will be printed without hesitation and it continues to increase exponentially then there is no turning back….. the public will lose confidence in money as a means of exchange. They will turn to barter. 

Crack up boom will spread over seas to dollar pegged currencies.

Edited to add: The great unknown is will we get one more deflationary collapse in 2022 (The Big Kahuna as we say)…. ???

Before the last and final monetary expansion…? .. or is this it and we hurtle towards the crack up boom exponentially rising stocks and assets as the currencies devalue….?

Heres a nice little graph to leave you with….

 

I will continue to go into reflation : high dividend stocks:

Holdings February 2022:

BP, SHEL, SLB, REP, ENB

BATS, IMB,

BT, TEF, ORA, T, VZ, VOD,

FRES, POLY

NG, MNG, GSK, HFEL, BA

RR

ARB, PHAG, PHGP

Physical Gold & SILVER (Bullion Vault).

For me, PSLV is a useful cash sink.  Price is well down from highs, but if metals go up and we have a rush to assets, they have real physical, not paper promises.

DYOR, obv.

[Jesus Wept]

17 minutes ago, wherebee said:

For me, PSLV is a useful cash sink.  Price is well down from highs, but if metals go up and we have a rush to assets, they have real physical, not paper promises.

DYOR, obv.

I totally agree - a wide and varied portfolio of reflation stocks and assets. 
 

OPTIMiSM
 

I have some ‘paper’ PHAG, PHGP in H&L and then some physical gold and silver which is meant to be sitting in BullionVault in London and then a little exposure to BTC via Argo which was the 5% left over after I sold up last year during the short term (?) bubble.

[Jesus Wept]

Crack-up Boom continues…..
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60463196

[Spiney Norman]

1 hour ago, Jesus Wept said:

Crack-up Boom continues…..
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60463196

Asking prices though.

It will be intereting to see if this shows up in the actual sale prices.

[Bobthebuilder]

57 minutes ago, Spiney Norman said:

Asking prices though.

It will be intereting to see if this shows up in the actual sale prices.

An attempt to shore up their stock price, would be my best guess.

[Jesus Wept]

Crack up ‘boom’ continues…..

This Russian / Ukraine business was a bit of a ‘black swan’ as well which may have unimaginable effects.

Gas prices, oil prices, wheat, aluminium, container prices, heating, petrol, house prices…. 

Currencies collapsing….

I can smell the fear….

[Jesus Wept]

The world is losing faith in the central banks’ ability to control inflation.

What we have coming down the road is alarming to contemplate.

1. Collapse of currency

2. War

3. Financial asset seizures and regulation

As someone once said…..

”Protect yourselves…”

 

 

[The Grey Man]

Best place I could find.

I am freelance. I won't say the exact nature.

Payments for mandated payments from councils and CCG'S is a growing pain. The bullshit is beyond amazing about refusing to pay.

If you do not know it, well come to the third world. 

 

[Frank Hovis]

7 hours ago, The Grey Man said:

Best place I could find.

I am freelance. I won't say the exact nature.

Payments for mandated payments from councils and CCG'S is a growing pain. The bullshit is beyond amazing about refusing to pay.

If you do not know it, well come to the third world. 

 

 

Not refusal to pay but delays and missed payments were my experience of council contracts.

Their buying power made them utterly indifferent to keeping to agreed terms.  The companies I worked at were big enough for it to be no more than an irritant; for a smaller company or individual such as yourself it becomes a huge cashflow problem.

[belfastchild]

7 hours ago, The Grey Man said:

Payments for mandated payments from councils and CCG'S is a growing pain. The bullshit is beyond amazing about refusing to pay.

If you do not know it, well come to the third world.

Lost the form. That PO number isnt the same as the one raised. They didnt raise that PO. That person only works 2 days a week. That person is off for months. Your email is blacklisted by our server. You need to send it to the new accounts email address. Your supplier reference is out of date, we changed all that. You need to re-apply for a supplier reference, we cant find your old one.

Sound familiar?

The bit that fucking gets my goat is that my client raises a PO which I eventually get off them, I email the invoice to them, they email supplier payments, supplier payments prints off the invoice and puts it in internal mail to a different building back to the original client who then signs it and sends it back by internal mail to accounts and they may or may not action it for payment at some point in the future. Dont do me any favours.

[The Grey Man]

23 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Lost the form. That PO number isnt the same as the one raised. They didnt raise that PO. That person only works 2 days a week. That person is off for months. Your email is blacklisted by our server. You need to send it to the new accounts email address. Your supplier reference is out of date, we changed all that. You need to re-apply for a supplier reference, we cant find your old one.

Sound familiar?

The bit that fucking gets my goat is that my client raises a PO which I eventually get off them, I email the invoice to them, they email supplier payments, supplier payments prints off the invoice and puts it in internal mail to a different building back to the original client who then signs it and sends it back by internal mail to accounts and they may or may not action it for payment at some point in the future. Dont do me any favours.

Totally right.

The time involved chasing these things often is greater than the time for the work. The endless dross as you accurately describe then becomes an effort of remembering where your up to with all those delayed.

[The Grey Man]

46 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Not refusal to pay but delays and missed payments were my experience of council contracts.

Their buying power made them utterly indifferent to keeping to agreed terms.  The companies I worked at were big enough for it to be no more than an irritant; for a smaller company or individual such as yourself it becomes a huge cashflow problem.

I keep about a years cssh flow. Expensive but saves stress.

Mind some colleagues have every penny spent before they have received payment!

Some work is never paid for. Not just annoying but implications on accounts. It is a shame as there are some real gems amongst the crud but never get promoted or have influence. They often leave.

[Jesus Wept]

Global Crack-up boom continues apace. 

Another £300bn +++ ‘printed’ into the US economy….

If inflation hits 20% ++ and they don’t whack the brakes on with 10% IR’s ++ this will get away on them. Hyperinflation, ‘dash to assets’ and Destruction of currencies guaranteed. 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-62664181
 

[No One]

5 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Global Crack-up boom continues apace. 

Another £300bn +++ ‘printed’ into the US economy….

If inflation hits 20% ++ and they don’t whack the brakes on with 10% IR’s ++ this will get away on them. Hyperinflation, ‘dash to assets’ and Destruction of currencies guaranteed. 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-62664181
 

Debt cancelation is deflationary