Property predictions 2022

[haroldshand]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

This shite in York that needs at least 50k spent on it has allegedly had a bid of £292k

 

Semis in the same street went for £255k just a few months ago.

I already said it early on, but the housing market is already looking pretty strong for 2022, we are going to get a tanking economy and CPI/RPI inflation, but all that will do is slow it up a little so we don't get double digit HPI this year

[haroldshand]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

House i had saved on RM has just gone SSTC.

Sale fell through when up for £325k last year, so bangs it up to £350k then £340k and it SSTC again.

Prices in and around York are more than this now.

Would have been a nice house if it didnt sell and they'd have taken £300k.

Cunts need to get interest rates up ASAP, so those buying places like this are in negative equity.

 

Was up your way a few weeks ago around the Ripon Harrogate area and then drove across to Hawes, amazed at how beautiful the countryside  and Villages were

[Phil]

1 minute ago, haroldshand said:

Was up your way a few weeks ago around the Ripon Harrogate area and then drove across to Hawes, amazed at how beautiful the countryside  and Villages were

Your never that far from Bradford when in York.

[Hancock]

11 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

I already said it early on, but the housing market is already looking pretty strong for 2022, we are going to get a tanking economy and CPI/RPI inflation, but all that will do is slow it up a little so we don't get double digit HPI this year

Everything depends on interest rates, if they spike to 2/3% then a house prices crash is on.

Stay below 1% then no crash.

I believe they'll be 2/3% by the end of the year.

4 out of 5 voted for a 0.5% rise last week, and with inflation rising from here due to energy and food inflation a 0.5% hike in March is very possible.

[Hancock]

4 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Was up your way a few weeks ago around the Ripon Harrogate area and then drove across to Hawes, amazed at how beautiful the countryside  and Villages were

Im not from these parts, was looking at York as anything is better than being this close to Hull!

[Hancock]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Your never that far from Bradford when in York.

Id imagine York is getting filled with white flighters from Leeds/Bradford.

[haroldshand]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Your never that far from Bradford when in York.

Yep I know the story there 

Plenty of old Army mates from that area and if one certain person on here thinks there are issues with attitudes towards "brown people" then he wants to have a word with these guys who lived there. Only warning though is he wouldn't have many teeth left if he lectured them in the same way

[mh9000]

Anecdotally I think it’s a favourite with HKers as well.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

Everything depends on interest rates, if they spike to 2/3% then a house prices crash is on.

Stay below 1% then no crash.

I believe they'll be 2/3% by the end of the year.

 

4 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Everything depends on interest rates, if they spike to 2/3% then a house prices crash is on.

Stay below 1% then no crash.

I believe they'll be 2/3% by the end of the year.

Last yr a few I chat to looked at me and laughed, when I said interest rates will go up. Now they are all tied into long deals ( apparently). I’m hoping for 4%. I want to see em burn.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Yep I know the story there 

Plenty of old Army mates from that area and if one certain person on here thinks there are issues with attitudes towards "brown people" then he wants to have a word with these guys who lived there. Only warning though is he wouldn't have many teeth left if he lectured them in the same way

Sorry hh. What does that translate into. 

[haroldshand]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Last yr a few I chat to looked at me and laughed, when I said interest rates will go up. Now they are all tied into long deals ( apparently). I’m hoping for 4%. I want to see em burn.

Sorry, but I can see token rises as a gesture that something is being done about inflation, but BOE, government will do nothing that will cause a house price crash, it really is too big to fail now

[mh9000]

16 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Sorry, but I can see token rises as a gesture that something is being done about inflation, but BOE, government will do nothing that will cause a house price crash, it really is too big to fail now

I would love nothing more than rate rises and a 20%+ crash as FTBer, I’d be in a decent position due to a fairly big deposit. Feels like there will always be some trick to keep it going though like you say.

[Pip321]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

This shite in York that needs at least 50k spent on it has allegedly had a bid of £292k

 

Semis in the same street went for £255k just a few months ago.

The declared offer means it’s a repo and therefore a Mexican stand off should have happened….then thrown into an auction….then picked up for less than recent sales. That what happens in a neutral market and in a negative one then it’s all bets off  

Some people are balmy paying shop window prices, (or more in this case) valuers then just confirm what ‘the market tells them’ rather than factor in the daft lack of supply and free £50k loans that have been floating about.

I appreciate you posting, not my geographic area but it’s near and really interesting. I don’t buy developments anymore but stay very close to the market and have helped several friends and family members who have needed to buy or move. My understanding is York is having some interest with London sellers….and to be fair York is a nice spot. 

I was around in the massive 90’s crash with huge ‘negative equity’ headlines. They weren’t real for most informed buyers who did due process and weren’t suckered in….so most people lost 10/15% and it was hard. Those who had jumped in shouting ‘loadsamoney’ ended up losing everything when their prices fell 40/50%

It’s a tricky call, at the moment because I would have expected buyer foot fall to be low in January like it was last year but seemingly the lack of supply is keeping things going. It hope and expect things to soften but knowing when is becoming increasingly difficult to predict. What people don’t realise is how quickly sentiment changes and whilst it takes ages to come through asking prices it can impact on achieved sale prices with motivated sellers really quickly. 

 

[Wight Flight]

23 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Some people are balmy paying shop window prices,

Big sign in my local estate agents window stating that 82% of houses they sold last year went for more than the asking price.

No real surprise, but quite depressing.

[Hancock]

34 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

The declared offer means it’s a repo and therefore a Mexican stand off should have happened….then thrown into an auction….then picked up for less than recent sales. That what happens in a neutral market and in a negative one then it’s all bets off  

Some people are balmy paying shop window prices, (or more in this case) valuers then just confirm what ‘the market tells them’ rather than factor in the daft lack of supply and free £50k loans that have been floating about.

I appreciate you posting, not my geographic area but it’s near and really interesting. I don’t buy developments anymore but stay very close to the market and have helped several friends and family members who have needed to buy or move. My understanding is York is having some interest with London sellers….and to be fair York is a nice spot. 

I was around in the massive 90’s crash with huge ‘negative equity’ headlines. They weren’t real for most informed buyers who did due process and weren’t suckered in….so most people lost 10/15% and it was hard. Those who had jumped in shouting ‘loadsamoney’ ended up losing everything when their prices fell 40/50%

It’s a tricky call, at the moment because I would have expected buyer foot fall to be low in January like it was last year but seemingly the lack of supply is keeping things going. It hope and expect things to soften but knowing when is becoming increasingly difficult to predict. What people don’t realise is how quickly sentiment changes and whilst it takes ages to come through asking prices it can impact on achieved sale prices with motivated sellers really quickly. 

 

By the time its been fixed up, that house will have cost circa £350k with fees, stamp duty etc...

Average wage in York will be around 30k, so a ball park figure of 12 times average salary.

90s crash was mainly in the south, northern Englanders hadnt yet become obsessed with house prices back then!

[Hancock]

Fat fucken pig speaks.

Not sure how a £25 pcm gym membership buy a £350k house, but there you go. 

[Joncrete Cungle]

4 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Fat fucken pig speaks.

Not sure how a £25 pcm gym membership buy a £350k house, but there you go. 

Has she eaten her hat yet?

[Phil]

Just now, Joncrete Cungle said:

Has she eaten her hat yet?

She noshed on Phil a few times…. 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

She noshed on Phil a few times…. 

Did you like it?

[Phil]

Just now, Hancock said:

Did you like it?

Fuckin nightmare. She still has a tooth or two the old slut.

Just now, Phil said:

Fuckin nightmare. She still has a tooth or two the old slut.

The other Phil just watched the chucked twat.

[spygirl]

On 06/02/2022 at 21:52, Hancock said:

By the time its been fixed up, that house will have cost circa £350k with fees, stamp duty etc...

Average wage in York will be around 30k, so a ball park figure of 12 times average salary.

90s crash was mainly in the south, northern Englanders hadnt yet become obsessed with house prices back then!

That claim was  work of fiction.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43729508

 

York wages are well i nthe bottom 50%. ~26k

A couple, both earning that can afford -a ~200k mortgage.

York will fall fast n hard with higher IRs.

 

 

[Inque]

Will the closure of the golden visa scheme  mean a lot of Rich foreigners living the uk will have to sell up?

Thats going to be a heck of a lot of mansions and million pound plus London pads up for sale at the same time?

[HousePriceMania]

I've just run an interim UK Property Lion index and it looks like 2022 is going to see the collapse of the housing bubble !!!

It's showing asking prices in Scotland now down 10% ( was -8% 2 weeks ago ), Oop north and the midlands gone YOY -ve, they were slightly up 2 weeks ago and down south going -2% MoM.

Slaves volumes not rising much so if the flood gates open it could be carnage.

So much for the spring bounce.

Full index at the start of March

This fits in well with the ONS data from yesterday....

 

Land registry could be deeply -ve by the end of 2022.

If we see 3% IRs, 40-50% down is possible.

 

[Frank Hovis]

20 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Land registry could be deeply -ve by the end of 2022.

If we see 3% IRs, 40-50% down is possible.

 

I really can't see it because it isn't a fluid market.

Anything but the cheapest houses tend to be either owned outright or have a very low LTV ratio because of HPI.

Their price is held up by what I have termed "equity swapping"; someone sells an £800k house in one part of the country and buys an £800k house in another part of the country.

No mortgages involved, interest rates irrelevant.

I would however be utterly delighted by such falls for personal reasons, I want a fancier house, as well as social reasons.

[HousePriceMania]

43 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I really can't see it because it isn't a fluid market.

Anything but the cheapest houses tend to be either owned outright or have a very low LTV ratio because of HPI.

Their price is held up by what I have termed "equity swapping"; someone sells an £800k house in one part of the country and buys an £800k house in another part of the country.

No mortgages involved, interest rates irrelevant.

I would however be utterly delighted by such falls for personal reasons, I want a fancier house, as well as social reasons.

People keep telling me Scottish asking prices aren't down 10%, they are.

I can only tell you what the numbers say, it's up to you to decide what to do with the information.

I've personally shorted all the online EAs, apart from winkworth, that's what the numbers tell me is the best possible path right now.

That non-fluid market fluidly went up 20% in 18 months and down 50% in Northern Ireland in 2008.